Posted by Frank James at 12:41 pm CDT

If there were ever any doubts about the power of the illegal immigration issue to dictate the outcome of a race, Brian Bilbray’s election in California to replace disgraced former congressman Randy “Duke” Cunningham should put them to rest.

Bilbray, a former congressman who now will be returning to Congress, has credited his stance against providing illegal immigrants a chance to gain legal status with his victory over Francine Busby, the Democratic candidate.

It was an uphill battle from the start for Busby in California’s solidly Republican 50th Congressional District which went for President Bush in 2004 by 55 percent to 44 percent.

Democrats are taking some solace from how close Busby came. Unofficially, she lost by five percentage points.

“In an election cycle that is shaping up to be a change vs. the status quo contest, Francine Busby has shown that a strong change message can make even former members of Congress vulnerable in deeply red Republican districts,” said Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.,) chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, in a statement on the DCCC’s website today.

The district, however, was seen as offering Democrats one of their best shots at picking up a Republican seat this year. They figured that if their “culture of corruption” theme was going to work anywhere, it would be in the district Cunningham, with his brazen solicitation of bribes, had represented.

But the “culture of corruption” tack flopped in its first big test. That Democrats failed has to be a considerable disappointment to them, despite Emanuel’s spin. The $2 million they spent in the House race was a lot just to send a message.

The Republicans spent more than $5 million, of course, and had the party's biggest guns campaign for Bilbray, including Bush and the first lady, Vice President Cheney and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) In addition, they had a fired up get-out-the-vote effort which paid off.

"... National Democrats did not discover their shockwave in San Diego," said Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-NY) who heads the National Republican Congressional Commitee. "National Democrats must come to terms with the fact that momentum for the midterm elections will not materialize simply because they preordain it in the media or because they ask their special interest friends to buy it for them.

"The results in San Diego show that nothing has happened to alter the notion that House elections are about a choice between local personalities focused on local issues," Reynolds said.

Well, not exactly. While it certainly has disparate local effects, immigration is a national issue and Bilbray himself said in an interview carried on CNN that it was immigration that really put him over the top.

That the San Diego area district is about one-fifth Hispanic makes his successful use of illegal immigration even more noteworthy. It did not hurt him in a district with a significant Hispanic population.

Because the district is near a part of the U.S.-Mexican border that was a major crossing point for illegal immigrants until an imposing fence was erected, the feeling against illegal immigration may run higher there than in other districts.

Bilbray was also undeniably helped by a verbal misstep by Busby. As the campaign was coming to a close she appeared at an event attended by a few dozen Hispanics. One man asked told her in Spanish which was translated for the candidate that he wanted to help but he didn't have papers.

Busby responded: "Everybody can help, yeah, absolutely, you can all help. You don't need papers for voting, you don't need to be a registered voter to help." She later said she misspoke.

But her Republican opponent seized on the statement, saying she was either encouraging non-citizens to vote or to campaign for her. The comment was caught on tape whose repeated airing only made matters worse. She spent the rest of the campaign trying to recover but couldn't.

Despite the dynamics of this particular campaign, an important upshot of Bilbray's election is that is likely to make House Republicans only more adamant when they negotiate with Senate lawmakers over their competing immigration-reform bills.

The lesson they will take away from last night is that opposing the Senate and President Bush’s positions on immigration-reform is a winner. Both the Senate and Bush would offer illegal immigrants eventual legal status which Bilbray denounced as an amnesty and won.

Bilbray’s success on the immigration issue also raises important concerns for Democrats. Many in the traditional Democratic base are also opposed to giving legal status to illegal immigrants. Then there are Republican moderates and independents who might vote for a Democrat in certain circumstances.

So Democrats, who need to win a net of 15 seats to take control of the House, have once again been placed on notice by the Bilbray victory that the immigration issue can be decisive in some races.

It means that when it comes to the immigration debate, Democrats will have to navigate carefully between those in their party’s base who support granting legal status to illegal immigrants and those who don’t, while also appealing to enough Republican moderates and independents. That won’t be easy.

(Photos from Bilbray for Congress website. In top photo, Bilbray is identified as talking to residents. The bottom photo is described as Bilbray standing at a border fence.)