After monthly jobs report comes spin: The Swamp
The Swamp
Posted August 4, 2006 9:18 AM
The Swamp

Posted by Frank Jamess at 9:09 am CDT

The day the Employment Report data comes out is always a good one for political-spin watching.

Here are the facts. The Labor Department today reported that the economy added 113,000 jobs in July, below economists' expectations. Economists had been looking for additional jobs in the neighborhood of 150,000 acccording to surveys done by Dow Jones News Services and CNBC. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged up two-tenths of a percent to 4.8 percent in July from 4.6 percent from the month before.

The uptick in the unemployment actually means that more people in July who said they were looking for jobs in July couldn't find them compared with June.

This would suggest a slowing economy. Not a bad thing, really since it may give Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve Board chair and his colleagues, an excuse for not raising interest rates yet again when they meet in a few days.

But here's the spin. When you read the press releases from the House's Republican leaders, you'd think the economy added thousands of more jobs than economists predicted and that the unemployment rate fell.

Here's a press release from the office of Rep. Dennis Hastert (R.-Ill.), the House Speaker:

Speaker Hastert Praises Job Creation

(Washington, D.C.) House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-IL) today released the following statement in response to the Labor Department's report showing that 113,000 jobs were created in July.

"While temperatures in America have risen in the last month, so has America's robust economy. Today's report from the Labor department shows that job growth is continuing due to the smart economic policies put in place by the House Republicans.

"This means that 113,000 workers will be bringing home a pay check this month. That's money they can use to help pay bills, get their kids ready for going back to school or possibly a summer vacation. If the House Democrats had things their way, they would raise taxes, slow job growth and increase unemployment with their tax-and-spend policies. House Republicans are determined to continue to cut taxes, in order to put more money in the wallet of the American worker."

Here's the press release from Rep. John Boehner (R-Ohio.):

Boehner: More Job Gains Boost Economy;
Republicans Working to Address Americans' High Cost of Living

WASHINGTON, D.C. - U.S. House Majority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) highlighted the latest job gains announced this morning by the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL). Approximately 113,000 jobs were created in July, for a total of more than 5.5 million new jobs since August 2003. Boehner issued the following statement:

"Today's job gains prove our growing economy continues to provide more economic opportunity and higher wage jobs to working families across the country. While our economy remains strong, too many American families continue to feel anxiety about the high cost of living.

"Republicans have worked to address these concerns by passing responsible energy legislation to help lower gasoline prices for American consumers, and by working to make high-quality health care more affordable for working families. And Republicans have sent the Pension Protection Act to President Bush to ensure that the hard-earned pensions of American workers will be there when they retire. These efforts stand in stark contrast to Capitol Hill Democrats who continue to advance reckless proposals for higher taxes and more spending that will only endanger the economic progress we've made."

The press releases are more campaign statements than critical assessments of what today's "Employment Report" actually says about the economy. The report was really just an excuse for House Republicans to issue statements bashing Democrats as wanting to "raise taxes," of having "tax-and-spend policies" and of offering "reckless proposals for higher taxes and more spending."

Just as self-serving is the statement from Democratic Jack Reed (D-R.I.):

Job Growth Remains Sluggish and Unemployment Rate Rises

Washington, D.C. – The unemployment rate rose to 4.8 percent in July, and only 113,000 total payroll jobs were created, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Non-government jobs grew by 113,000.

“Payrolls are not expanding at a very strong pace and there is increasing concern that slower economic growth will dampen job creation even more,” said Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI), Ranking Democrat on the Joint Economic Committee (JEC). “As Treasury Secretary Paulson recently acknowledged, many Americans have not benefited from the economic gains we’ve seen so far in this recovery. Workers’ wages are not keeping pace with soaring energy prices and rising health care costs, and now their jobs may be at risk as well. It’s time for the President to address the real economic challenges facing American families.”

Growth in payroll employment – already modest by the standards of past economic recoveries – was just 112,000 jobs per month in the past four months. The 5.6 million jobs created since job losses peaked in August 2003 works out to only about 159,000 per month, when growth of 200,000 jobs per month or more was typical in past recoveries. July’s 4.8 percent unemployment rate remains higher than the 4 percent rate achieved in the expansion of the 1990s.

Many labor market indicators remain weaker than they were at the start of the 2001 recession. The labor force participation rate is 1.0 percentage point lower than it was at the start of the recession and the fraction of the working-age population with a job is 1.3 percentage points lower. Long-term unemployment also persists. Nearly one in every five unemployed people – 1.3 million Americans – have been jobless for more than 26 weeks, the maximum number of weeks for receiving regular unemployment insurance benefits.

Higher prices for gasoline and medical care are squeezing the take home pay of workers. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4 percent again in July. After adjusting for inflation, however, average hourly earnings remain lower than they were three years ago.

Overall, there are 7.2 million unemployed Americans, and 4.9 million additional workers who want a job but are not counted among the unemployed (including about 1.5 million who have searched for work enough to be considered marginally attached to the labor force). An additional 4.3 million people work part-time for economic reasons. The unemployment rate would be 8.5 percent if the figure included those who are marginally attached to the labor force and those who are forced to work part-time for economic reasons.

Here's the White House press release:

THE WHITE HOUSE

Office of the Press Secretary

(Crawford, Texas)

________________________________________________________________

For Immediate Release August 4, 2006

Job Creation Continues – More Than 5.5 Million Jobs Created Since August 2003

Today, The Government Released New Jobs Figures – 113,000 Jobs Created In July. The economy has created more than 1.7 million jobs over the past 12 months – and more than 5.5 million jobs since August 2003. The unemployment rate is 4.8 percent – below the average of each of the past three decades. In addition, wages grew 0.4 percent in July, the second consecutive month of strong wage growth and faster than inflation.

The Economy Remains Strong, And The Outlook Is Favorable

Ø Employment Increased In 47 States Over The Past 12 Months Ending In June.

Ø Real GDP Grew A Strong 3.5 Percent Over The Past 4 Quarters.

Ø Productivity Has Grown At A Strong 3.5 Percent Annual Rate Since The First Quarter Of 2001. Productivity growth during the past five years has been at the fastest rate in nearly four decades.

Ø Real After-Tax Income Has Risen By 13.5 Percent Since January 2001.

Ø Industrial Production Increased 4.5 Percent Over The Past 12 Months.

Ø Manufacturing Production Has Risen 5.7 Percent Over The Past 12 Months. Manufacturing productivity has grown 4 percent over the past four quarters, faster than the 3.7 percent average growth in the 1990s.

Ø Strong Growth Is Helping Raise More Tax Revenues For The Federal And State Governments. In 2005, Federal tax revenues grew by $274 billion, the largest increase in 24 years, and State tax revenues are up substantially in 2006.

President Bush Has An Aggressive Agenda To Create Jobs And Keep The Economy Growing

President Bush Has Called On Congress To Make His Tax Relief Permanent. The economy grows when Americans have more of their own money in their pockets to save, spend, or invest. The President worked with Congress to double the child tax credit, reduce the marriage penalty, cut taxes on capital gains and dividends, create new incentives for small businesses to invest, and reduce income taxes for every American who pays them.

The President Is Calling On The Senate To Quickly Pass The Line-Item Veto, So He Can Sign It Into Law. The line-item veto would make it easier for the legislative and executive branches to work together to ensure fiscal responsibility. Under the line-item veto passed by the House, a President could approve spending that is necessary, redline spending that is unnecessary, and send the wasteful spending back to Congress for a prompt up-or-down vote.

President Bush Is Working With Congress To Control Runaway Entitlement Spending. In February, President Bush signed the Deficit Reduction Act into law, saving our Nation almost $40 billion over the next five years. In addition, the President's FY07 Budget proposes to slow the growth of entitlement programs, including Medicare, by $65 billion over five years. The President will continue to work with Congress on entitlement reform, including reforming Social Security.

The President's American Competitiveness Initiative (ACI) Will Keep America The Most Innovative And Competitive Economy In The World. The ACI will encourage more aggressive investment by businesses in research and development, increase Federal support for vital basic research, and improve math and science education for America's students.

The President Is Committed To Opening Markets Around The World And Expanding Opportunities For America's Farmers, Ranchers, Workers, And Businesses. Since 2001, the U.S. Congress has approved free trade agreements (FTAs) with 12 countries. Export growth to trade partners with FTAs implemented between 2001 and 2005 is twice as fast as U.S. export growth to the world. More trade leads to more jobs for workers, more income for businesses, more choices for consumers, and more tax revenue for State and local governments.

As We Work To Open Markets To American Goods, We Must Ensure That America Remains An Open Society To New Immigrants Who Add To Our Economy And Prosperity. The President urges Congress to pass comprehensive immigration reform that will secure our borders, enhance worksite enforcement, create a temporary worker program, resolve the status of illegal immigrants already here, and promote assimilation into the American culture, including learning English.

# # #


Here's the press release from Sen. Bill Frist (R-Tenn.), the Senate majority leader.

FRIST COMMENTS ON JULY JOBS NUMBERS

WASHINGTON, D.C. — U.S. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, M.D. (R–Tenn.) today made the following statement after the Department of Labor announced the latest jobs report for the month of July:

“An exuberant U.S economy churns along with 35 straight months of job growth and over 5 million new jobs created since August of 2003. Despite the cost of living squeeze imposed by high gas prices, consumer confidence remains strong further reinforcing the resiliency of this economy. We must continue to lead in Congress with pro-growth policies that help move us toward greater energy independence and provide a fair tax system for American families and businesses.

Here's yet one more press release, from the second-ranking Democrat in the House, Rep. Steny Hoyer of Maryland.

Hoyer: Republican Economy Continues in the Wrong Direction
Whip Says Slow Job Growth Reflects Failed Republican Policies

WASHINGTON, DC – House Democratic Whip Steny H. Hoyer (MD) released the following statement this morning following the news that only 113,000 jobs were added to the economy in July:

“While any job growth is welcome, the economy needs 150,000 jobs just to break even with the new workers entering the market, so it is disappointing that the Republican economy only added 113,000 jobs in July. But it comes as no surprise.

“While President Bush and Republicans try to put on a positive face, they can’t hide the fact that wages are stagnant, job growth has been insufficient, and the costs of gas, health care, and college tuition continue to skyrocket. Congressional Republicans and the Bush Administration keep saying that the economy is doing very well, but that does nothing more than show how out of touch they are.

“In addition to supporting a fair increase in the minimum wage, Democrats have plans to make health care more affordable, cut college costs, and make America energy independent. When it comes to the economy, Republicans have tried, and they have failed. It’s time for a new direction.”

###

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Comments

They're Republicans. They believe their own hype. So what's new?


If you use Enron's accounting for example, you can make the numbers say anything depending on how you want to spin things.

I'm glad Jack Reed included the fact there are many people who are not counted because they are no longer eligible for unemployment.

They also need to include those who can't find work in thier chosen field. I know many college graduates who are waiting tables instead of working in what they trained for in college. The jobs that were there when they began their collge educatiion are now overseas.


My favorite is from Oswego Slim's press release:

"This means that 113,000 workers will be bringing home a pay check this month. That's money they can use to help pay bills, get their kids ready for going back to school or possibly a summer vacation."

After finally landing a job, taking a vacation is not likely to be high on the agenda (even "our president" -- perhaps the laziest slug on the planet -- put in six months of "hard work" before his month long vacation in 2001).

Fat Bastert may as well suggest that they will buy a new Gulfstream with their first Mickey D's paycheck. This corpulent criminal and the rest of the Republican murder squad make Marie Antoinette seem really attuned to the po' foke.


My favorite bit of spin came this morning on CNBC when Ed Lazear, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors suggested that the uptick in unemployment was a sign of the strength of the job market - suggesting that since unemployment measures only those actually looking for work, that more people were LOOKING for work because of the newly robust job market, causing a higher unemployment number.

Oh Brother.


Blinkin,your rockin,keep up the good blogging.


Frank, Perhaps you'd "think the economy added thousands of more jobs than economists predicted and that the unemployment rate fell." When I read these press releases I didn't think this at all. I though that the economy created 113,000 jobs and the unemployment rate went up to 4.8%. It's not that complicated.


That jobs number is a game. I'm convinced economists team up with Wallstreet to come out with high estimates. Then, when the number comes in lower the markets rally on hopes of no more rate hikes. (Interesting to note that a so-called bad jobs report failed to rally the markets today. Beware!)

Don't get me wrong, I think politicians put a great deal of spin on every story, but just because the number comes in lower than "economist estimates" doesn't mean the number is necessarily bad.


Blinkin,that post is the best this week.

You've won an all expense paid trip to Vegas w/Bill Bennet,the morals czar.


Something smells here all reports show 3/4 of the returning troops can not find jobs. You would think they say something about that opps rosy picture


Lochnessmonster

I think if you re-read his statement you will find that you misunderstood Mr. Reed ("I'm glad Jack Reed included the fact there are many people who are not counted because they are no longer eligible for unemployment.")

The idea that unemployment statistics are based only on those filing for unemployment (and that you are not counted as unemployed once you are no longer eligible)is an urban myth. Take a look at http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm for the complete picture but the Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment data is based on a monthly survey of at least 60,000 random households.

No political comment on this one - it just seems a shame to let misinformation be spread further.

RRD


RRD not wanting the spread misinformation, that’s a good one from a guy that quotes Rush Limbaugh.


Rory M.

1) Find a quote from Rush in any of my posts and I will stop posting on this blog.

2) Are you denying this post about unemployment statistics is accurate?

RRD


RRD

A thorough reading of the web site you have provided reveals the following:

Unemployment statistics are not based on the number of people receiving Unemployment Benefits. The BLS defines Unemployed as people who are not currently employed but have actively searched for work within the last 4 weeks.
(7,205,000 (seasonally adjusted) for the month of July ’06)

The Labor Force consists of those who are employed (151,534,000 (seasonally adjusted) for the month of July ’06) plus those who the BLS have classified as Unemployed

The Unemployment Rate is the ratio of Unemployed to the Labor Force. (4.8% for the month of July ’06)

What is left out of this calculation is the people who are “Marginally Attached” to the Labor Force. (See the section “Who is not in the labor force?”) (4,901,000 000 (seasonally adjusted) for the month of July ’06) If the “Marginally Attached” were included as Unemployed the Unemployment Rate would be 8% for July ’06.

The urban myth that once unemployment insurance runs out that person is no longer counted as unemployed is not accurate.

Likewise, the myth that all people that are unemployed but willing and available to go to work immediately are counted as unemployed by the BLS is also not accurate.


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