Lieberman's (Republican) coattails

Posted by David Lightman at 8:48 am CDT

Sen. Joe Lieberman's independent candidacy could have a ripple effect that jolts Connecticut and national politics. The state has three vulnerable Republican incumbents who suddenly see gold on Lieberman's coattails.

We talked to the three, and the Democrats, in the article posted here:

GOP Reaches For Joe's Coattails

By DAVID LIGHTMAN
Washington Bureau Chief
Hartford Courant

August 10 2006

Suddenly the Democrats' nightmare scenario becomes plausible: They are a seat or two from gaining a House majority in November, but so many Connecticut Republicans go to the polls to vote for Joe Lieberman that the state's three vulnerable GOP incumbents win re-election.

"Whether he wants to or not, Joe's being on the ballot will juice Republican turnout," said former Democratic Rep. Toby Moffett, who is advising the party's candidates. "Does he want to go back to Washington as the guy who helped Republicans retain their majority?"

Republicans saw a big opportunity. Less than an hour after Lieberman announced he'd run as an independent, Rep. Rob Simmons, R-2nd District, rushed out a statement praising the senator; Reps. Christopher Shays, R-4th District and Nancy L. Johnson, R-5th District, later followed suit.

All three Republican districts are on every national insider's list of the 15 to 20 shakiest House seats in the nation. Democrats need a net gain of 16 to win control of the House for the first time since 1992, and polls and pundits see the party as having a good chance.

Connecticut is one of the party's key targets. Though each of the three Republican incumbents is considered moderate, and routinely opposes GOP leaders on social issues, they all have to defend consistent records of support for President Bush on Iraq and economic issues.

All seemed to be grabbing for Lieberman's coattails.

"I have the highest respect for Joe as a statesman and public servant who has conducted himself with dignity and honor representing Connecticut," said Johnson, who has long had a good working relationship with Lieberman. Her official website features a big picture of her with the senator at the top. And Tuesday Lieberman did well in several key towns Johnson represents, notably New Britain, Torrington and Waterbury.

Simmons seemed not at all put out by Lieberman campaign literature in which the senator takes credit for saving the Navy's sub base in Groton, a major economic engine in Simmons' district.

"I have enjoyed a productive working relationship with Sen. Lieberman on many issues over the years," Simmons said. "I know him to be honest, hardworking and bipartisan. This is particularly the case when it comes to Connecticut's defense industrial base and the nation's defense. He is a known quantity of known quality."

The strongest backing came from Shays, who also is facing a strong challenge based on his support for the war in Iraq.

"Joe Lieberman is my friend. I have tremendous respect for him," said Shays, who had earlier said the state Republican Party should endorse the senator. "I'm sorry he lost the primary, but unlike my opponent, I look forward to voting for him in the general election."

Nationally, Republicans chose their words carefully. Appearing on MSNBC's "Hardball" Wednesday evening, national GOP Chairman Ken Mehlman refrained from urging Connecticut Republicans to vote for GOP Senate nominee Alan Schlesinger over Lieberman, despite pressure from host Chris Matthews. It's up to individual voters to make that choice, he said.

Earlier, Mehlman issued a statement using Lieberman's defeat to paint Democrats as a narrow, intolerant party.

"It speaks volumes about the new Democrat Party: if you stand for a strong defense and victory in the war on terror, you have no place in the party and you must be purged," Mehlman said.

Democrats said Wednesday they were concerned that that argument has the potential to carry significant weight.

"It doesn't help," said Rep. John B. Larson, D-1st District, of Lieberman's candidacy. "But the anti-Bush vote is clear and you have to be encouraged by the large number of unaffiliated voters who registered Democratic" to vote in Tuesday's primary.

"I just don't know," added Sen. Christopher J. Dodd, D-Conn., when asked about the impact of an independent run.

Dodd joined other Democrats in the state and across the nation in putting on a united front supporting Ned Lamont and dismissing any talk that Lieberman could hurt them.

Rep. Rahm Emanuel, D-Ill., chairman of the party's congressional campaign committee, thought Lieberman's presence could help Democrats, because the senator "will be talking about raising the minimum wage, energy policy - echoing the Democratic candidates' message."

And although Lieberman may embrace a Republican or two, Emanuel said, the Democrats will tell voters that Connecticut's congressional Republicans "have all been rubber stamps for George Bush."

Independent analysts see potential for Lieberman to help the Republicans.

"New England is the strongest anti-Bush region anywhere, and Democrats look like they can ride that wave into office," said congressional analyst Amy Walter, "and if there's anywhere they can ride the wave, it's Connecticut."

Lieberman's candidacy, she said, "is a potential sandbar. What we don't know is if it breaks the wave, or it's something Democrats can get around."

David Lightman reports for the Hartford Courant, a Tribune Co. newspaper.