Posted by Mark Silva at 9:42 am CDT
Republicans face a fight in bellwether Ohio this fall, according to a new Ohio Poll today that shows the Democratic candidate for governor holding a strong advantage over his Republican rival and Democratic congressman Sherrod Brown holding only a slight lead over two-term Republican Sen. Mike DeWine.
Brown’s advantage is a mere four points in the new survey released by the University of Cincinnati – almost equal to the margin of error in the poll. But Rep. Ted Strickland (D-Ohio) holds a 12 percentage-point advantage over Republican Secretary of State Ken Blackwell in the contest to replace the outgoing Republican governor, Bob Taft.
Political scandals have played a role in the Republican Party’s problems in Ohio, but the survey has found in Ohio something that national surveys also are revealing this year: Voters worried that things are “on the wrong track.’’ Most of the Ohio voters surveyed – 69 percent – said they see things in Ohio as “off on the wrong track,’’ and only 27 percent said that things are “heading in the right direction.’’
Among those dissatisfied voters, the survey found: Democrat Strickland holds a 59-29 point advantage over Republican Blackwell in the governor’s race, and Democrat Brown holds a 61-37 point advantage over Republican DeWine in the Senate race.
Among likely voters surveyed, very few are undecided in an apparently close Senate race: With 51 percent favoring Brown, 47 percent DeWine and just 2 percent undecided. In the governor’s race, more are undecided, with 50 percent favoring Strickland, 38 percent Blackwell, 6 percent other candidates and 7 percent undecided.
Brown is considered one of the Democratic Party’s stronger bets for capturing a Republican Senate seat in the November struggle for control of Congress. It will take six Democratic victories, however, for the GOP to lose the Senate this fall.
Brown is a seven-term congressman from Akron who was educated at Yale and served in the state Legislature. He was elected secretary of state in 1982 and later lost that office to Taft, the Republican from a storied Ohio family who went on to become governor. He has maintained a consistently liberal voting record in the House since his first election in 1992, according to the Almanac of American Politics.
DeWine also has a long record of service in public office. Schooled in Ohio, he was elected as a country prosecutor at 29 and won election to the state Legislature soon afterward. He won a congressional seat in 1982 and was elected lieutenant governor in 1990. Two years later, he challenged then-Sen. John Glenn and narrowly lost after Democrats brought up his nearly three dozen overdrafts at the House bank. DeWine made another bid for the Senate in 1994 and won handily.
The Ohio Poll, run by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati, was conducted Sept. 7-17 – with a day off from surveys taken on Sept. 11. The survey of 671 likely voters carries a possible margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
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Comments
Ohio is about to sweep and clean its mess up.The voters in Ohio are tired of the problems and will change it very soon with their votes.
Posted by: Dale Peters | September 20, 2006 9:49 AM
DeWine follows the same old scare tactics that the rest of the republican crew uses..Like his bogus photo of the trade center burning that he brought out in the start of his campaign in july.
Is there no shame for these bozos?
Posted by: bill r. | September 20, 2006 9:53 AM
If Blackwell loses he will be fine...he can sell his shares in Diebold!
Posted by: bill r. | September 20, 2006 9:57 AM
Voters of Ohio:
(D)Sherrod Brown will do an excellent job representing you in Congress,he is one of the best young candidates in the country.
I think your state in particular has been badly burned by the Republicans representing you in congress,(R)Bob Ney comes to mind,as does your scandel-plagued, lame-duck Republican governor (R)Bob Taft.
We shouldn't keep rewarding these Republicans for doing a bad job,and making bad decisions.
This is why it is such a great thing to live in a democracy....you have the right to vote these people out of office......GOODLUCK!!!
Posted by: John E. | September 20, 2006 10:17 AM
So, will these "bellwether" races cease to be bellwether races to the mainstream media if DeWine and Blackwell win? Just like after Republican Brian Bilbray beat Democrat Francine Busby to hold California congressional district 50 last spring? Before the race everyone said it was an indicator of how the entire nation would lean if the democrats could take a long-time republican seat in a conservative district. But after they failed all the reports said it was a narrow victory for Bilbray and that losing was actually good news for the democrats.
I certainly wish them the same kind of "success" in Ohio.
Posted by: Bill | September 20, 2006 10:43 AM
John E., be fair. Mike DeWine has done an excellent job of representing the people of Ohio. First as lieutenant governor and then as their U.S. Senator. He was one of the moderates that saved the Senate from drastically re-writing the judicial confirmation rules.
I'm sure he will continue to represent them with just as much courage and ethics when he's reelected. That's probably why he's staged such a stirring comeback in the polls
Trash Ney and Taft all you want, I'll help, but leave DeWine and Blackwell out of it.
Posted by: Bill | September 20, 2006 11:01 AM
Bill,
I can't leave (R)DeWine out of it,because he is already in it knee deep.
He is doing exactly like all of the other Republicans that are in trouble.....He's running a smear,distort,and confuse the issues campaign,and the same people Karl Rove used to produce the swift boat commercials are now working for DeWine.
If only Republicans had a good record that they could run on.....oh well,you know the rest.
By the way Bill,welcome back,I missed you.
Posted by: Joun E. | September 20, 2006 11:15 AM
Bill, I misspelled my own name in the above post:
Joun E.......SPELLCHECK PLEASE!!!!
Posted by: John E. | September 20, 2006 12:00 PM
I missed you, too, John. Smear campaign? Please. The democrats are the first people I'd go to to start a smear campaign. Just because their campaigns don't work doesn't mean they don't use them. I've been slandered as a paid shill, which I'm most certainly not, on this very blog by some posters who have the nerve to call themselves democratic.
Posted by: Bill | September 20, 2006 12:07 PM
Due to the a)lack of professional jobs in the entire state b)lack of leadership and competence in the OH legislature, and c)high level of unchecked corruption of state depts (tax money stolen), we were forced to return to IL, our home state for employment.
The voters, belatedly, realize that one-party rule isn't viable. There are few checks and balances now, so November might bring that needed change. It won't be easy/quick to undo the 15+ years of neglect and damage.
Posted by: former Ohioan | September 20, 2006 12:17 PM
Ok Bill and Juanito,
It's a beautiful fall day,and election season is in full bloom,...let's start over again...
PEACE!!!!
Posted by: John E. | September 20, 2006 12:31 PM
John E., if the corrupt Republican deserve to be kicked out in Ohio, does that mean you will be voting to remove the corrupt Democrats in Illinois. You will vote out the Corrupt Boy Governor (how many investigations are taking place into his administration and now he tried to shake down a Hollywood producer and his own auditor says his prescription drug plan in illegal and costing taxpayers billions), the Crooked County leaders, etc.????
What say you, John E???
Posted by: John D | September 20, 2006 1:15 PM
Former Ohioan, you're moving to Illinois to escape one-party rule? I hope you're moving downstate because Daley-Stroger rule is what you say you were moving away from.
Posted by: Bill | September 20, 2006 3:09 PM
It's a continuous source of amusement to me that the people who scream at the top of their lungs that we should get corruption out of government whenever a crook like Bob Ney cuts a plea deal turn around and use canards like "well, he wasn't convicted of anything," when the conservative posters ask them what they thought of the Tribune's front-page investigation that found evidence of at least 360 illegal influence-peddling jobs handed out by Blagojevich. I guess it's just like feminists and Clinton, huh? As long as it's your guy that got caught then there never was any crime in the first place.
Posted by: Bill | September 20, 2006 3:13 PM
The only statistic that will matter at election time will be the number of soldiers killed and maimed in a flawed Iraq policy.
Posted by: Janet | September 20, 2006 3:18 PM
John D, I'm all for voting out the corrupt Democrats in Illinois but I'm not sure I'd want to replace them with corrupt Republicans. Our last governor was a Republican and his next job will be making license plates in prison. I don't like Rod or Judy. Is Lyndon LaRuche still fielding candidates?
Posted by: Tom O | September 20, 2006 4:14 PM
Tom, those running the Republican party in Illinois need to go too. We need folks like Mark Kirk, Jim Durkin and others to clean house in the GOP. I agree that a choice between the Boy Governor and Judy is not much of a choice. They both stink.
Posted by: John D | September 20, 2006 4:49 PM
Rich Whitney is a third party cadidate and will likely receive my vote. This seems to be the only party which hasn't sullied the governor's office yet.
Posted by: Kevin | September 20, 2006 5:27 PM
Randy Stufflebeam looks like the best canidate for governor of Illinois.
Because dumb and dumber (Rod and Judy - you pick the order, just don't cut it)
Posted by: Terry | September 20, 2006 7:20 PM
Randy Stufflebeam gets my write-in vote for Illinois Governor because he will bring strong leadership to cleaning up and out the corruption that was brought upon Illinois by both Republican so-called ethical leaders and the so-called ethical leaders of the Democrat party. He is the ONLY candidate for Illinois Governor against same-sex civil unions not Judy Topinka, Rod Blagojevich or Rich Whitney. His web ste is www.runrandyrun.com Contribute to his campaign your time, energy, and yes finances to get his message out. Tell others about him too!
Posted by: Mike | October 3, 2006 1:34 PM