The billion-dollar '08 campaign

Posted by David Lightman at 7:50 am CST

Setting the pace for what could be the first billion-dollar presidential campaign, the early starters in campaign fundraising have shown their hands at the Federal Elections Commission.

Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York has the lead with $14.3 million on hand, exceeding the total amount declared by other candidates in both parties.

Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut reports $4.9 million, Sen. Joseph Biden (D-Del) $3.2 million. Others have in the range of $400,000 to $1 million to spend: The committee for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) with $472,000 on hand, former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, Republican, $1 million, former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) about $400,000, and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama (D) about $500,000.

For more, see the story in the Courant:

Pace Set For 1st $1 Billion Presidential Race

By DAVID LIGHTMAN
Washington Bureau Chief

February 2 2007

WASHINGTON -- What do you get when you combine 17 presidential candidates, an incumbent leaving office and intense competition for media exposure?

The first $1 billion presidential campaign.

The first campaign finance reports of 2007 were filed Wednesday with the Federal Election Commission, and they showed the serious players raising a couple of million dollars each.

But although the tallies, for some, are already impressive, if not surprising, they just hint at what's coming.

FEC Chairman Mark Toner has noted the likelihood of the landmark dollar figure for the 2008 election, but Rosa L. DeLauro, Connecticut's 3rd District representative, may have referred to it most pointedly:

"The money that's flowing in this cycle is going to be ridiculous," she said. DeLauro is national co-chairwoman of Democrat Chris Dodd's presidential campaign.

The finance arms race is expected to get so fierce that veteran reformers have thrown up their hands, saying they'll try to fix the system in the 2012 cycle.

To date, New York Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton leads with about $14.3 million on hand. That appears to exceed the total amount for the other declared candidates, in both parties.

Dodd reported $4.9 million, and Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr., D-Del., could tap at least $3.2 million.

Others have in the range of $400,000 to $1 million to spend. The committee for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., reported $472,000 on hand, former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani reported about $1 million, former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, about $400,000, and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, about $500,000.

Those are just the entry fees. A single, major nomination campaign is expected to cost at least $75 million. The general election will cost $400 million more per candidate.

Most major candidates announced last month and have hired staffs, so the numbers reported in April, covering the first quarter of this year, are expected to be staggering.

Lawmakers seemed to have the system under control until four years ago. Reforms enacted after the Watergate scandals of the 1970s provided presidential candidates with federal money, as long as they stuck to strict spending limits and showed they could raise funds from a broad array of small donors.

The system is funded by taxpayers checking off a box on their income tax returns, indicating a donation of $3 to the campaign fund. About 28.7 percent checked the box in 1980; by the early part of this decade participation rates had fallen to about 11 percent.

Still, they provided enough to adequately fund campaigns. Then came 1996.

Magazine publisher Steve Forbes elbowed his way to prominence by largely funding his own campaign. When Forbes geared up to run again in 2000, George W. Bush opted out of the public financing system to compete with Forbes.

When few seemed bothered by Bush ignoring the reforms, in 2004, Democratic front runners Howard Dean and John F. Kerry also declined public funds for the primary. In all, Kerry and Bush spent about $655 million.

This time, few if any major candidates are expected to take the federal dollars.

"They'd be foolish to participate in the current system," said Rep. Christopher Shays, R-4th District, who helped lead the fight to ban "soft money" - funds that could be raised and spent in unlimited amounts.

That ban is intact, and candidates can seek contributions of only up to $2,300 per election from individuals and $5,000 from political action committees. If they want public money, the FEC will give them up to $45 million for the primaries, as long as they agree to the spending limits and abide by other rules.

And that's the problem. Chances are candidates would have to agree to spend only about $750,000 in New Hampshire and perhaps $1 million in Iowa. That is barely enough to open offices in Des Moines and Manchester and staff them with pollsters and strategists.

But if history holds, those two contests, now scheduled for mid-January, will largely determine the top two candidates in the nominating fight. Any candidate who abides by the limits will be at a huge disadvantage.

"You have no choice but to opt out," said John Rauh, president of the New Hampshire-based Americans for Campaign Reform. "It's too late to change anything for 2008."

Clinton has already said she will not take public money in the primary campaign, and if she wins that, will turn down federal money for the general election.

"Both presidential nominees opted out of the public financing system in 2004 because the cost of running a modern campaign has gotten so expensive," said Clinton spokesman Phil Singer.

Others are not saying whether they will take the money.

Shays and his allies want to change the system so that a candidate could get as much as $150 million in public money for the primary season, and $100 million more for the general election. This would be funded by raising the individual check-off limit to $10.

Getting the system fixed, though, will be a huge struggle.

It took Shays and his group a long time to get the soft money ban passed five years ago, and the effort got important boosts from some outside sources, notably public outrage over the Enron corporate scandals and McCain's 2000 presidential campaign, in which he constantly stressed the need for reform.

This time, though, McCain is running for president, and is mum about whether he'll abide by the limits. "No decision has been made," a spokesman said.

David Lightman is Washington Bureau chief for the Hartford Courant, a Tribune Co. newspaper.