Expert: Chertoff 'gut feeling' comment 'very odd'

Turn on the fear machine. Better distract the viewing public.

The war is going badly. Even Republicans are falling away from Bush.

Turns out Alberto Gonzalez knew about FBI violatons of civil liberties when he said there were none.

Bush commutes Lewis Libby's sentence for obstructing justice in the CIA spy leak scandal this making it OK to to commit an act of treason against the United States and get away with it.

Support is growing for the Impeachment of Dick Cheney.

I wonder what he really knows.

I have a "gut" feeling that once again the DHS is politicizing their statements to detract from Iraq, Gonzo-gate, Cheney's 4th branch of govt., etc. This administration has no shame, morals or anymore legs to stand on...DISGRACEFUL!

I have a gut feeling this guy is another Nazi fear mongering crony.

Two days ago, I sat right where I am right now, thought about all I have heard about terrorism, and put my thoughts into words and shared them with the public. I laid out an argument for why we have a high likeleyhood of an imminent terrorist strike or terrorist threat. I also included some advice for citizens to protect themselves. Compare this to a government official a day later, addressing the media with a gut feeling and advice on how they can act to increase the overall power of the goverment.

Chertoff, "is normally 'circumspect' and careful about how he uses language." Did he consider that the American public can't stomach anymore gut feelings in his attempts to be cautious? I thought we were afraid to tip terrorist off of what we think and know. Top secret that, top secret this. Executive privileged this, Executive privileged that. The only thing not falling under the umbrella of Bush are feelings. We construct wars around feelings, we carry out wars with feelings, we run our government on feelings.. Is gut feeling the exception, or are we just afraid that concrete detailed plans denote commitment, commitment we are afraid to make just in case we are wrong?

The administration can't base anything on intelligence these days for two reasons. 1 - They act on bad intelligence, resulting in the deaths (so far) of 3500 Americans, and the permanent maiming of tens of thousands, and 2 - there has never been, and never will be, any real intelligence inside the stained house of presiden buckshot and his cheif bootlicker chimpy mcmoron.

Just read Ron Suskind's "One Percent Doctrine." Fascinating stuff with some very interesting anecdotes, including a report that Ayman Zamahiri CALLED OFF an attack several years ago that was in its final stages. No one can know for sure why he did this, but is it possible that AL Qaeda is not necessarily trying to attack us right now?

My "gut:" large scale attacks soon after the next president takes office. This would fit with an Al Qaeda pattern going back to 1993, when the first WTC bombing occurred barely a month into the Clinton presidency. Of course 9/11 was less than a year into the Bush presidency, and the attempted attacks in London were within weeks of a new prime minister taking over. They could also be timed to coincide with the presidential election, though this one will not be as easy to sway as when Bin Laden gave his ringing reverse-psychology endorsement to President Bush in the 2004 elections.

One other interesting anecdote from Suskind's book was that the the eventual mastermind of the London subway bombings was in the CIA's crosshairs. He was scheduled to come to the States presumably to activate terrorist cells. The CIA and the Administration debated what to do with him, deciding to put him on the no-fly list. Of all the options, this seems the least intelligent since it tips him off that he's being watched, but does nothing to disrupt his activities and does nothing to assist the British in stopping him.

Several months later, 4 bombs went off in London, killing 52 and injuring over 700. Wise decision-making by the Administration and CIA had a very high likelihood of stopping these attacks as well as extracting information from this known high-value target.

For more: http://www.americablog.com/2005/07/bush-admin-may-be-responsible-for.html

David Heyman states:
"The historical data do not substantiate the Secretary’s comments.
It’s important that we base our threat assessments and analysis on available intelligence and other information, not guesswork or ‘gutwork’."

And on the very same day I read about Ahmad Abdallah Abu Ghanam being held in Florida after allegedly trying to bring a gun aboard a Chicago-bound plane.

I think it is time for Mr. Heyman to watch the news footage from September 11, 2001.

You have more of a chance getting killed by a pig in America than a terrorist. We need to stop the fear mongering. It seems to be all you can hear from this administration and on talk radio. The plan seems to be to either get votes or ratings from peoples fear.

Maybe he was tipped off by information he got on his side job - being the Angel of Death.

Put a black robe on him and hand him a giant sickle and he's a dead ringer for the Grim Reaper.

Too bad he didn't have a gut feeling that Katrina was going to be a huge disaster and the federal government should be prepared to do its job on a minimal level, take care of the American people at a time climactic and tragic need. Too bad he didn't have a gut feeling that Mike Brown was woefully unqualified to head FEMA. Too bad Bush didn't have a gut feeling about an eminent terrorist attack in the summer of '01 after reading a memo titled "Bin Laden Determined to Attack Within the US". Oh well.

Could the day of the month being 11 have anything to do with this gut feel?

so are we supposed to go on high alert every time Chertoff has a bad tamale?

yeah. I bet his GUT feeling is that we better vote Republicrook for the next election before the 'smoking gun' is a 'mushroom cloud'

What a surprise, more counterproductive and inaccurate antibush comments.

From the glory days of Ridge and Ashcroft, this has been SOP for this band of bozos when pressured on other matters. How are we to know if this "gut feeling" is caused by a potenitial terror attack as opposed to, say, a bad taco?

re: HLS and "Gut" feelings.

HLS should fire all of its minions of political hacks and give all their IT gathering apparatus to the Boyscouts and buy crystal balls and pork gut-bellies!!

Remember this well. We are living in the age of insanity. As the arch of civilization comes to a close.

I have a gut feeling that there will be a terrorist attack the day after Election Day, 2008, if the guy Karl Rove wants to win doesn't.

My gut instinct: al-qaeda may try for a high profile attack right before the 2008 elections if it looks like a lot of Bush allies are going down the tubes. This will give Bush the excuse he needs to implement his executive order giving himself the authority to declare martial law in an emergency (said emergency not being defined so that Bush can decide for himself what constitutes one) and suspending the Constitution and the government.

This, above all, would make bin Laden very very happy because Bush and Cheney did more to advance the cause of al-qaeda and swell its ranks than anything bin Laden could think of in his wildest dreams.

bin Laden could then be assured of many more years of American blunders, mistakes, aggression and arrogance in the Middle East to keep the fires of resentment and anger burning red hot.

Fear is the primary weapon against reason. Why is reason important? The Constitution is a document constructed from reasonable principles, as reasonable as the Framers who constructed it. Policy based upon principles that serve only to subvert reason are destructive to our country and downright treasonous.

QUOTE:
I have a "gut" feeling that once again the DHS is politicizing their statements to detract from Albania, Monica-gate, Hilary's 4th branch of govt., etc. This administration has no shame, morals or anymore legs to stand on...DISGRACEFUL!

Posted by: Anyone | July 11, 2007 2:46 PM

---------------------
Don't mean to single out this comment but wanted to make a point about partisan politics. Cry wolf, or cry the sky is falling. I guess no is allowed to raise alarms because it's immediately classified as a distraction.

Yet, when nothing is done, we get another status quo similiar to Sept. 10, when no one knew nothing or said nothing about the impending attacks.

Of course, the left knew of the attacks. :rolleyes:

Since the Bush administration can't use intelligence with any credibility anymore after its blatant manipulation of intelligence to support its case for war in Iraq what else can it do but go before the American people and make prouncements beased upon gut feeling? The wreckage of the Bush Presidency is nothing less than a monumental stain upon the history of the United States of America.

With all the obstruction of justice from this administration? Where is our Kenneth Starr. It's obvious to me there needs to be impeachments for many crimes this administration is quilty of committing against the American People. The complacency of the Senate and Congress is also a crime. I'm ready to vote Independent and to heck with the two parties. What a mess!

David Heyman states:
"The historical data do not substantiate the Secretary’s comments.
It’s important that we base our threat assessments and analysis on available intelligence and other information, not guesswork or ‘gutwork’."

And on the very same day I read about Ahmad Abdallah Abu Ghanam being held in Florida after allegedly trying to bring a gun aboard a Chicago-bound plane.

I think it is time for Mr. Heyman to watch the news footage from September 11, 2001.

Posted by: Edward | July 11, 2007 4:15 PM

See! If it wasn't for Chertoff's gut feeling, imagine what might have happened!

Be afraid.

That the head of Homeland Security relies on his " gut feeling" to assess terrorism threats leaves me with a gut reaction too: I want to throw up.

Maybe he was tipped off by information he got on his side job - being the Angel of Death.

Put a black robe on him and hand him a giant sickle and he's a dead ringer for the Grim Reaper.

Posted by: Tony | July 11, 2007 4:30 PM

Strange you say that, 'cause I was just thinking this guy looks exactly like Jack Kevorkian.

Ironic, no?

"[W]e're not some brainiacs on the nerd patrol. We're not members of the factinista. We go straight from the gut...That's where the truth lies, right down here in the gut. Do you know you have more nerve endings in your gut than you have in your head? You can look it up. Now, I know some of you are going to say, "I did look it up, and that's not true." That's 'cause you looked it up in a book. Next time, look it up in your gut. I did. My gut tells me that's how our nervous system works." -- Political sage Stephen Colbert

Yeah - I have a "gut" feeling he is lying.

Comments on a couple of posts:

"Edward", 7/11/07 4.15 PM: get a clue. Everytime someone is caught doing something does NOT mean that a mas-scale attack is to happen. And I am sure David Heyman is aware of what happened 5 3/4 years ago.

For "Bryan" who posted at 4.09 - 2 things wrong with your conclusions: (1)there is no proof that terrorists have access to or read no-fly lists. Besides - if they wanted to get into the US they'd figure a way. (2) You assume we don't share intelligence with the Brits. Way off base.

The present administration is the most bankrupt of all previous administrations. They can't get their stories straight, lie through their teeth and believe what is convenient. My "gut" says they are evil.

Chertoff should have had a "gut" feeling (maybe just watched the news) when Katrina hit the gulf states.

Will we soon find that Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff is but another Bush administration right wing incompetent?

Oh yeah, hurricane season is here. Is Chertoff's gut feeling similar to the one that of a million Americans who still wait for Bush to help them out of Katrina's aftermath?

The Bush Presidency: Arrogance, Incompetence and Ideology.

The major threat the nation faces is having this clown in charge of Homeland Security - he needs to resign and resign now.

Michael Chertoff's Fecklessness

PD, et. al.,

Yes, the likelihood of being killed by a terrorist is very low (though I wonder where you got your odds re: death by pigs.) But I can't recall the last time a pig flew an airliner into a skyscraper, killed more than 3,000 people and inflicted serious damage on the national economy? I'm not saying Chertoff is correct. I am saying, though, that Islamic terrorism is not a myth.

And on the very same day I read about Ahmad Abdallah Abu Ghanam being held in Florida after allegedly trying to bring a gun aboard a Chicago-bound plane.

Ok, let's dissect this tawdry piece of drivel.

Edward "read" about it. In what? He fails to tell us. Could be the Star, the Enquirer, or rushbo "the addict" limpo's website, all of which are extremely suspect sources.

Ahmad Abdallah Abu Ghanam? He uses a nice dangerous sounding middle eastern name, but is this person a terrorist. He could be a plain American that had a stupid moment and forgot to unpack his gun from a trip with the vice president hunting republicans. What was AAAG's intent? Until we know, this stupid little factoid means...nothing.

Allegedly tried to bring a gun aboard an airplane. So maybe he didn't? Well that certainly changes the value of Edward's argument. We don't know from where, why, when, or how, but edouard uses his factoid to buttress an argument that people that disagree with him or the grey house are not keeping up with current events.

Looks like your petard is about to blow. Better get back to sticking your head in the sand, like the rest of the 20% of Americans deluded enough to think that president chainsaw and the chief lackey bushbo are still relevant in this era.

Well pd, maybe a mushroom cloud would change your mind, ever seen a man decapitated?

Sorry pd, just wanted to see for once, what it felt like to say something like that. Just for the record, it made me feel important yet queezy.

Chertoff's "gut feel" comment was poor judgement, of course. What I found even more troubling was the fact that he admitted: "The intent to attack us remains as strong as it was on Sept. 10, 2001." Here we have an administration official admitting we are no safer now than we were then. The administration's Hollywood, tough-guy approach has failed miserably. I hope a forthcoming, more mature approach enables us all to feel -- and for a person in Mr. Chertoff's role to say -- that we are, in fact, safer than we were then; that the "intent to attack" is lower. This administration doesn't even have this as a goal, since it derives its power from fear. Why have Franklin D.'s words fallen from our collective consciousness?

Read between the lines and all we see is mis-direction from activities the Bush Administration wants to hide from us.So "they" are planning some further outrageous move, like attacking Iran is my gut feeling, thus fueling retribution from the Middle Eastern terrorist machine, and there-by fulfilling Chertovs' "gut feeling".

And the Congress and The G.O.P. lead the fight this summer against I.D.'s for
illegal aliens this summer.

I am squarely placing blame
on talk-radio and the weak
Democratic Congress who could not push this through.

Man we is stupid as a people.
Now the states are going to half to step it up.
To I.D. who's here.

The next attack is directly
related to talk radio's failure
to clearly see the problem
for what it is.

Time to step on the gas fellas.

Good Luck

PD... I agree that terrorist attacks aren't a significant risk to the average american, but it's still a bit of an exaggeration to suggest that 3,000 americans have died of pig-related deaths in the last six years.

You've got to admit, gut feelings do have the allure of truthiness, though.

there is evidence that 9/11 was an inside job and what would be better for the bush administration at this point in the game to take the the podium with flags flying and people crying and him to "unify" the country again and say the terrorists were behind this, have we all forgotten that saddam hated al qaeda, that the taliban were in texas discussing unocal business, and that osama bin laden's part in 9/11 is not even mentioned on the fbi's most wanted list. also should we forget norman mineta's testimony to the 9/11 commission confirming cheney gave the stand down order, wtc 7 collapsed but no plane hit it, save our country patriots, don't let them do this again, our families are not to be collateral damage in an endless war for their endless profits!

or perhaps skelator

More fear mongering for the sheep. The Republicans in Congress are getting ready to bail on Iraq, so they cart out the fear. The risk of dying in a terrorist attack is minimal and if you do die in one, well, that's the price of living in a free society. I would rather die free than live like sheep.

Michael Chertoff;

A) Has been ordered by B.J. & the Bear to rattle some cages and distract attention from nefarious task which they are committing elsewhere

B) knows something. Has been ordered by B.J. & the Bear to keep quiet. Has developed a conscience and this is the best he can do to 'leak' it.

C) is auditioning to replace Bob Barker on Price Is Right and needed to demonstrate his ability to excite a large crowd with anticipation, direct their attention then manipulate them into thinking someone's going to win.

I'm thinking probably 'C'

Chertofff said, "... if the 'public' wants to take that risk ..." Who is he referring to? You & I? Is there some risk that someone has approached "us" on and asked "us" to decide on a 'more safe' or less safe' course of action?

I usually don't buy into such things, but it sure sounds like a Bush spokesperson "warning" the public about an event they KNOW will happen - or have actually planned.

The first step in a propaganda buildup that will be the excuse for voiding the 2008 elections and the 22nd amendment.

OMG Fire That Incompetent
Idiot DHS Do Nothing Micheal Jerk Off Chertoff &
"his Gut Feelings" as well!
This is nothing but more
Clueless Roasted Duck George Witless Bush "Fear &
Terror BS Again"!

What a surprise, more counterproductive and inaccurate antibush comments.

Posted by: Ivan | July 11, 2007 4:57 PM

I'd say questioning authority is always productive. People who don't are destined to be zombies sleeping walking to their graves. ...

Billions of dollars spent & we're relying on the head of Homeland Security's gut feeling about a possible attack? Gee, I hope I won't need to use my stockpile of duct tape.

It's about time we woke up and listened to people who have gut feelings. Terrorists just can't wait to destroy us. We must be vigilante . We need to prevent these events and take it very seriously. Look around at all the muslims in this country. We have forgotten the anger and fear of 9-11 , I would hate to relive those awful feelings of that day . Thank goodness for the NSA. and the Echlon program . Go HLS ,This is not a Rep/Dem problem ,it's our problem. Go Chertoff or who ever inherits this office after him.

A lot of you guys are going to be real sorry... this isn't a game or about politics. Even the clowns on the hill don't get it.

I don't know what it will take to open your eyes.

Chertoff's an idiot. But don't take it lightly.

I'm not fearmongering, do your research and turn off the tube. Go through the news and find the incidents.

My gut feeling tells me I am about to throw up.

Rick
Look around at all the muslims in this country.
Are you serious?

We have forgotten the anger and fear of 9-11 , I would hate to relive those awful feelings of that day .
That's the point, we aren't scared enough to fall in line.

This is not a Rep/Dem problem. Name the democrats that went to the media, cheerleading for this war, name all the democrats involved in pnac. You are right, this is not partisan.

Speaking of zombies, how is that going for you, Mr. Illogic Man?
You folks on the Left are so asinine, it's not even funny. You're not warned about terrorism, they aren't doing their job. You are warned about terrorism and then it's a big hysteria about nothing.
And to pd, who seems to think terrorism deaths are no big deal, tell that to the families of 3,000 victims from 9/11, or the families of the Madrid bombings, or the families of those who had their heads chopped off.
Since the Loony Left seems to think terrorism is no big deal, perhaps we should sacrifice them to the terrorists. That way the terrorists get to kill people and the Left gets to get put out of its misery.

I can't seem to forget the 52 warnings from the FAA to McBush prior to 9/11

The Bush administration should never use terms like gut feeling when talking about possible terrorist threats to the USA.

To appeal to the base, they should say "the Reagan astrologer tells me...."

John D.,

How does your average Jane & Joe Q. American prepare for a gut feeling?

More scare tactics and fear mongering from the illegitimate Bush administration. That is the only thing this administration is running on...to instill fear in people and keep them scared. What is the budget of the Dept. of Homeland Security?? What have they done to prevent another 9/11?? What is the color code for a 'gut feeling of a spectacular attack'?? Many many people in the U.S. and most of the civilized world considers Bush a criminal and a terrorist.

Doogie, we always should be on guard. Just as the flight people were suspicious at LAX last night, just as the folks on the plane in Minneapolis last winter were of the weird-acting Muslims, just as the photo developer was in regard to Fort Hix, John and Jane Doe should keep their eyes and ears open.
Can't keep your head in the sand like Doogie R. Can't keep playing PC games. We can watch, listen and think.

Objection yer honor, the witness, John D., is unresponsive.

George,

"For "Bryan" who posted at 4.09 - 2 things wrong with your conclusions: (1)there is no proof that terrorists have access to or read no-fly lists. Besides - if they wanted to get into the US they'd figure a way. (2) You assume we don't share intelligence with the Brits. Way off base."

1) When Mr. Khan went to catch the flight he was scheduled to depart on, HE WAS TOLD at the airport that he could not fly because he was on the No-Fly List. As for your "they'd figure out a way," maybe these terrorists that Mr. Chertoff has such strong gut feelings about are not omnipotent supermen. Possible?

To what "other way" are you referring? Swimming? I suppose he could have taken a cruise ship into Mexico and then snuck across the border, assuming that the no-fly list is not shared with shipping/ boating. Instead, he chose the path of least resistance and stayed home in England, unperturbed, to plan the attacks.

By the way, the information on Khan came from a terrorist computer in Pakistan, so there is much reason to believe he was a legitimate threat.

2) The anecdote from Pullitzer Prize winner Ron Suskind is that the US in this situation (who said the two never communicate?) did not ask the Brits what they would like to have done with Mr. Kahn.

The story told here http://www.americablog.com/2005/07/bush-admin-may-be-responsible-for.html is slightly different, stating that release of information seized off of the Pakistani computer and used by Tom Ridge during the Democratic Convention tipped Kahn off that they were on to him. There is no doubt that the man who perpetrated the London subway bombings was in the crosshairs.

P.S. Its pretty obnoxious to put people's real names in quotation marks as if they were some kind of clever alias.

We can watch, listen and think...well that rules you out John D. Why wasn't anyone at BushCo taking your advice in the summer of 2001? Seems they were NOT listening and were ignoring advice re: an imminent terrorist threat.

Doogie, what in the world are you talking about?
And dt, just like the Clintoon administration was unresponsive and unwatchful for most of its run???

The people who bombed the WTC in 1993 were captured, prosecuted, and are in prison. Same applies to the people who bombed the embassies in Africa.
What are you talking about, John D., you ignorant fool.
By the way...where's bin Laden these days??

John D.,

Gut feeling? Is that what Dubya found under his desk when he was looking for WMD?

Dubya, he's so funny!

I hope my nephew doesn't bust too many guffaws while pulling duty around Baghdad.

Doogie, are you sure that isn't your "son" in Iraq? Will you be going there in a few months like you were suppose to in January?
And Doogie, when did your "nephew" join the military? 2002? 2003? 2004? 2005? 2006? Before 2001?
Now I do have a nephew (and he is real too) joining the Marines in September.

John D.,

Have you been drinking?

More for Edward, who's probably just a freeper (right-wing nutbrains at freerepublic.com):
"And on the very same day I read about Ahmad Abdallah Abu Ghanam being held in Florida after allegedly trying to bring a gun aboard a Chicago-bound plane."

Did you read any further? It was his CHECKED luggage. He was trying to smuggle an illegal gun (no serial number, bought on street) in his checked luggage, and he got busted. Good job TSA and police. But he has a Muslim name, so to the freepers he probably justifies a war against Iran.

I suppose he was going to break through the floor to the luggage compartment to get his gun and hijack the plane...

Has anyone inside DHS suggested Pepto-Bismol I wonder? Always helps with my "gut feelings."

Can you believe this ?
What is next ?
This all makes the Warren Report on Kennedy's assasination look like nobel prize winning material
Was it not the case that the various security agencies in the U.S. all at odds with each other so they missed the ball ( or many balls)
Are we not all on the same side ?
When we they and we all learn