by David Lightman
Hillary Rodham Clinton and Mitt Romney continue to lead the latest University of New Hampshire poll of voter preferences in the nation's first primary state, while Arizona Sen. John McCain has slipped badly.
Those are the latest findings of the CNN\WMUR poll's July 9 to 17 survey. Clinton, the New York senator, was ahead of Illinois Sen. Barack Obama by 8 percentage points, down from her 14 point lead last month.
Clinton this time was the choice of 33 percent of the 333 Democrats surveyed, compared to Obama's 25 percent. Trailing were New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, now in third place at 10 percent, a slipping John Edwards, with 8 percent, and Delaware Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich, each with 3 percent.
Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd and former Alaska Sen. Mike Gravel were below 1 percent.
The New Hampshire survey offers some hope to underdogs--sixty-four percent said they were still trying to decide.
"Even though most New Hampshire Democratic voters say they are currently supporting a candidate, this does not mean they have made up their minds to vote for that candidate," said Andrew E. Smith, poll director.
But Dodd hardly registers on a key issue for those votes, electability. Clinton is viewed as the most likely Democrat to win in November 2008--47 percent cited her--while Obama is rated that way by only 17 percent, with everyone else far behind.
The candidate to watch, said Smith, could be Obama.
"Obama is well positioned among Democratic voters with high incomes and education who tend to be more liberal," he said. "He is also doing well among the undeclared voters who have the option of voting in either primary."
Those voters helped propel McCain to a big win in the GOP primary seven years ago, but they have moved away from him, as the poll suggests.
McCain has slid badly, running fourth this month with 12 percent. Ahead are Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, at 33 percent, followed by former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani at 18 percent and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, still an undeclared candidate, at 13 percent.
Smith said Romney's intense New Hampshire campaign has paid off; he was already well-known in the state, and gained 5 percentage points this month.
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Comments
Eight paragraphs (the first eight, naturally, after the opening paragraph on both) on the Dem race, versus three paragraphs on the GOP race. By "Swamp" standards, that's giving equal time to the GOP.
Posted by: Bruce | July 18, 2007 10:44 AM
Good point Bruce.
However, what Bruce DOESN'T mention is that the amount of total words used is much closer than the 8 to 3 paragraph count would make it appear.
Bruce, please submit word counts along with your paragraph counts on all future posts. And don't forget letter counts, we need to be sure all of the big words aren't being unfairly used on one side or the other.
How I can make important decisisions on where I stand without this vital information?
Posted by: John | July 18, 2007 11:42 AM
John,
And what about punctuation? What about multi-syllable words?
Seems to me an antidisestablishmentarianism is worth than a Bruce "wah, wah."
Posted by: Doug Zook | July 18, 2007 12:21 PM
Latest USA Today polling has:
"None Of The Above"
...followed by Rudy Gigoloiani.
leading the way for the Republican nomination for President in 08.
I like that "None Of The Above Guy" he seems to get along with everybody.
Posted by: John E | July 18, 2007 12:52 PM
Latest USA Today polling has:
"None Of The Above"
...followed by Rudy Gigoloiani.
leading the way for the Republican nomination for President in 08.
I like that "None Of The Above Guy", he seems to get along with everybody.
Posted by: John E | July 18, 2007 12:53 PM
Latest USA Today polling has:
"None Of The Above"
...followed by Rudy Gigoloiani.
leading the way for the Republican nomination for President in 08.
I like that "None Of The Above" guy, he seems to get along with everybody.
Posted by: John E | July 18, 2007 12:54 PM
..."And don't forget letter counts, we need to be sure all of the big words aren't being unfairly used on one side or the other."...
...we must not allow a letter count gap...
Posted by: The Original BZ | July 18, 2007 2:13 PM
Interesting media spin. Clinton gets 33 percent of just Democrats and is considered a leader. Bush gets 31 percent of everyone and is viewed as failing. Another way to look at it: Clinton leads the Demo candidates among Democrats nationally with 36 percent. That means that 64 PER CENT
of Democrats prefer someone else. How do you think she would fare if everyone were included? The Democrats are on the verge of another Dukasis or Kerry.
Posted by: Fran Cisco | July 18, 2007 2:33 PM
Interesting media spin. Clinton gets 33 percent of just Democrats and is considered a leader. Bush gets 31 percent of everyone and is viewed as failing. Another way to look at it: Clinton leads the Demo candidates among Democrats nationally with 36 percent. That means that 64 PER CENT
of Democrats prefer someone else. How do you think she would fare if everyone were included? The Democrats are on the verge of another Dukasis or Kerry.
Posted by: Fran Cisco | July 18, 2007 2:33 PM
Fran Cisco,
Please.
Third graders can see your comparison isn't valid.
Posted by: Doug Zook | July 18, 2007 2:47 PM
Fran Cisco:
Great analogy. If Hillary can't get anything close to a majority of Democrats, how will she do at the Big Dance? Also, the media spin on her 33 percent as being a sign of success is laughable.
Posted by: Reno | July 18, 2007 3:43 PM
Reno,
Shake your right hand with your left hand Fran Cisco.
What a troll.
What's next Sac Ramento?
What a goof.
Posted by: Doug Zook | July 18, 2007 4:23 PM
Well I don't find any of these UNH polls to be credible. Sampling 300 liberals at a college does not give a true picture of who is voting for whom.
Also, only certain people are included int the poll, thus around 40% are still saying 'none of the above'. I'm voting for none of the above and he's got more support than you could imagine.
Perhaps this is a good way to hide that support ---- just don't mention his name.
Oh by the way, in another MORE IMPORTANT POLL in NH, conducted by adults, my guy won with 65%.
Posted by: NH | July 18, 2007 6:07 PM
Hey Swamp - what about the slip of Senator John "One America" Edwards?
It would be one America under a president Edwards - we would all be broke.
Posted by: Terry | July 18, 2007 8:39 PM
It appears Doug is slipping back into Doogie mode. It's really a shame cause Doug has some sensibilities.
Posted by: John D | July 18, 2007 10:37 PM
It would be one America under a president Edwards - we would all be broke.
Posted by: Terry | July 18, 2007 8:39 PM
Terry, why has the poverty rate climbed under the Bush administration after dropping steadily during the entire Clinton Administration?
More people are going broke under this administration.
Posted by: Tony | July 19, 2007 8:58 AM
More people are going broke under this administration due to their own financial decisions, not Bush Administration policies.
Posted by: Terry | July 21, 2007 5:23 PM