by Mark Silva
Sen. Barack Obama has the home-court advantage among Democrats in Illinois, of course. That is, of course, unless Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is within the margin of error on his heels.
That's the reading from American Research Group, a Manchester, N.H.-based polling company which surveys voters in many states.
The senator from Illinois is the favorite among 37 percent of the likely Illinois Democratic voters surveyed, and the senator from New York the favorite among 33 percent.
The possible margin of error in this survey of 600 voters conducted Friday through Monday is plus or minus four percentage points.
Among likely Republican voters in Illinois, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani holds a more comfortable lead, claiming the support of 30 percent.
But Fred Thompson, the former senator from Tennessee and television and film actor eyeing a bid for the GOP nomination in 2008, has overtaken Sen. John McCain of Arizona for second place among Republicans in Illinois: Thompson with 21 percent, McCain 12.
For more on this survey and results from other states, see the pollster's summary.
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Comments
So which is it? Is Hillary/Bill from New Yawk or Illinois? She sounds Midwest, and maybe needs to shift some of her charisma to that side of the balance sheet, because after all no NorEasterner has been elected to the Presidency since JFK. Why should there be any difference in '08? I think so many Dems will be pissed off if she gets the nomination they won't vote.
Posted by: GW | July 10, 2007 5:11 PM
So bruce, why haven't you jumped in to complain about Mark mentioning Mr. "Outsider" and "fish or cut bait" Fred Thompson?
From rnc bruce on Gore:
"Since the "Swamp" (evidently bored for the moment with publicizing actual Dem candidates) brought up Al Gore and "Live Earth", let's hear what the band Artic Monkeys thinks about the latest Gore-baloney:"
Posted by: dt | July 10, 2007 5:17 PM
This is not at all surprising. Illinois voters are very familiar with Senator Obama, his weaknesses, and the company he keeps. They know, and he doesn't deny, that one of his mentors is consummate insider and "old school" politician State Sen. Emil Jones -- the same Jones headlining the last two days of the Sun-Times for nepotism in state contracts. Illinois voters are better positioned to juxtapose is "new kind of politics" rhetoric against his endorsements of political hacks like Stroger and Tillman. Gaffes such as slighting his own pastor or admitting to reporters that he can't comment on the State's budget crisis because he's "been busy with other things" resonate more loudly with Illinoisians. And the hypocrisy of travelling to Africa to speak out against corruption on that continent while only expressing "concerns" about all that has been exposed at all levels of government here in Illinois cannot be more glaring.
No. There's no mystery here.
Posted by: Biggdawg | July 10, 2007 5:51 PM
ARG is not considered one of the top polling firms and its numbers have not matched those of more mainstream pollsters.
Even so, the ARG poll shows Hillary within the poll's 4% margin of error in St Barack's home state.
The more credible USA Today/Gallup Poll out today has Rudi Giuliani holding a steady lead in the GOP race for president, and Clinton with a hefty 16% lead over Obama among Democrats.
These poll results, unfavorable to St. Barack, can be seen at http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2007/07/usatgallup-poll.html
Posted by: Bruce | July 10, 2007 5:52 PM
Still looking for those "Republican favorable" polls, huh Bruce?
I remember when you and Little Johnny were spitting out polls saying the Republic Party was going to be victorious in 06......and we all know what happened that time.
Posted by: John E | July 10, 2007 6:30 PM
RNC Bruce,
Decide to come up for air?
Posted by: Doug Zook | July 10, 2007 7:10 PM
By the way, several days ago I asked why I should waste my vote on Obama as opposed to any other charlatan.
I never did get an answer.
John E, you're "Mr GOBAMA". Care to tackle that one? (Somehow I doubt it. Oh, and please don't try to change the subject by accusing me of being 5 other people!)
If Hillary is this close in ILLINOIS, then Boy Wonder is in trouble!
PS Great post, Bigdawg.
Posted by: [INSERT CLEVER POST NAME HERE] | July 10, 2007 7:58 PM
Posted by Insert Clever Post Name Here July 10, 2007 7:58 PM
Leo Juanie,
No one on here is going to do your homework for you.
If you want to know what Obama is all about go to his web site.
I highly doubt that you where ever going to vote for a black man anyway.
Posted by: John E | July 10, 2007 9:33 PM
Barack "Hussein" Obama can give all his speeches facing the East(that's where Mecca is)but it won't do him any good--the vast majority of American's will not vote for a former illegal drug user with a Muslim background...
Paulo
Posted by: Paulo | July 10, 2007 10:45 PM
John E,
You call going to a candidate's website "doing homework"? You're joking, right?
Paulo,
In fact America has already elected AT LEAST two former illegal drug users to the presidency, and Barack Hussein Obama (why the quote marks?) isn't a Muslim.
I wish you two would grow up!
Posted by: Anonymous | July 11, 2007 9:38 AM
Paula the "racist",
How do you attribute the extraordinary amount of donors that Obama is getting so far? Why aren't any of the GOP candidates coming close to matching him? Don't project your racism towards the rest of America because they don't seem to translate to actualities.
Posted by: Marko | July 11, 2007 10:12 AM
How do you attribute the extraordinary amount of donors that Obama is getting so far?
Posted by: Marko | July 11, 2007 10:12 AM
Last time Paulo posted on this issue ($), he said "wow, did he get that much from Popeyes' and KFC"?
Do you think those remarks tell you anything?
It has nothing to do with the "muslim" shtick he uses.
Posted by: bill r. | July 11, 2007 10:25 AM
4 months later, and Paulo STILL HAS BEEN UNABLE to produce ANY EVIDENCE to back up his "Obama went to a madrassa school in Indonesia" smear that he & that Neocon rag Insight magazine say came from Hillary. I wonder what it feels like to throw out false allegations and not have the backbone to substantiate such lies, like Paulo does on an almost daily basis.
Posted by: BC | July 11, 2007 10:53 AM
Further proof of the strength of Hillary Clinton. The GOP nomination may be fluid but there has been only one front runner on the democratic side – Hillary. Go Girl!!
Posted by: csh | July 11, 2007 11:56 AM