Clinton looking stronger, NBC poll shows

by Mark Silva

NBC News is calling it “Hillary’s surge.’’

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York appears stronger today than she did a few months back, not only in a potential matchup with the Republican Party’s front-running candidate for president, but also within her own party.

Clinton has drawn 47 percent of the likely voters surveyed in the newest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, and Republican Rudy Giuliani, the former mayor of New York 41 percent – basically reversing the numbers that NBC found in March.

Clinton also stands stronger among Democrats nationally than Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois – though the more pertinent question is how those two and other Democrats will fare in the early party primary election and caucus states.

Nationally, the New York senator drew the support of 43 percent of the Democrats surveyed in the NBC/Journal poll, and Obama 22 percent – a 21-point advantage for Clinton, which is 50 percent greater than her 14-point lead in NBC’s June survey.

“Hillary Clinton has had quite a run in the presidential campaign so far,’’ NBC’s Chuck Todd reports this morning. “And the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll backs that up.’’

As a measure of Giuliani's own stance, the NBC poll also places Obama ahead of Giuliani in a potential general election-matchup.

The poll also has found what other surveys, most recently the Quinnipiac University Poll, have found: New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg could play a potentially spoiling role for Giuliani should he make an independent bid for the presidency.

With Bloomberg in a three-way matchup, Giuliani pays the biggest price in the NBC/Journal poll -- portraying a scenario much like the one that benefited former President Bill Clinton in 1992, when Ross Perot drained votes from former President George H.W. Bush.

Here’s another interesting indicator: 74 percent of those surveyed said that the prospect for 24 straight years of Bushes and Clintons in the White House won’t be much of a consideration in their votes.

Clinton’s remaining political liabilities have not changed much, however.

The poll has found that voters, by a margin of 53 to 22 percent, feel positive about her experience and competence, 44-29 percent positive about her values and character, and 42-28 percent positive about the fact that Bill Clinton is her husband.

But, only 39 percent positive about her warmth and compassion, 38 percent positive about her personality and style, and 33 percent positive about her positions on the issues.