Iowa Straw Poll has suited up some straw men

The Ayes of Iowa were upon him: George W. Bush, the one ultimately victorious winner of the Iowa Straw Poll and also the White House the following year, with 1999 straw poll runner-up Steve Forbes on the right and Elizabeth Dole. BBC photo.

by Mark Silva

It was, while recalling a ride in a rental car taken several years ago, that a little thought about the significance of the Iowa Straw Poll playing out Saturday in the lovely college town of Ames came to mind.

Dropping in at a lunch counter in Iowa Falls, looking for some real-live Iowans who just might be heading to the 1999 straw poll that weekend, we happened upon a table of four elderly ladies. We asked them if they were planning to attend the straw poll at the arena in Ames, and they replied, “Why yes.’’ All four of them.

Reporter’s pay-dirt.

And who might they be planning to support there? Well, they were planning to ride Steve Forbes’ bus and he’d gotten them their tickets. So, did that mean they were planning to support Forbes?

Oh no, they said, but it was nice of him to send them.

Reporter’s gold mine. '49er.

When we finally got there, indeed it was Forbes, the self-financed candidate for president that year, who had erected the only air-conditioned tent outside the arena, complete with French doors at the entrance. But, of course, it was George W. Bush of Texas who carried the Straw Poll during that summer of '99. “The ayes of Iowa are upon him,’’ we wrote at the time.

The president’s father had won the same party contest 20 years before that, when George H.W. Bush carried the first poll of 1979 – yet failed, during that cycle at least, to claim his party’s presidential nomination.

Now, with another Straw Poll arriving on Saturday, and lest anyone extrapolate from the bookend Bush victories of ’79 and ’99, it’s important to remember who has carried the other party straw polls since they started as a party fundraising event.

Phil Gramm and Bob Dole.

And Pat Robertson.

This year, all eyes are on Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts – perhaps largely because neither Rudy Giuliani nor Sen. John McCain are playing for Straw Poll stakes.

Romney even has hired the caterer who cooked the barbecue for the Bush tent in 1999, which proved so popular that year that lines wound around the outside – forcing yours truly to seek lunch at the tent of Sen. Orrin Hatch, where fried chicken was served and Vic Damone on stage sang “Your Love is Like a River,’’ one of the Utah senator’s own odes to Jesus, to a largely empty tent.

As Saturday’s event unfolds, the Des Moines Register reminds us of the history of a ceremony that certainly is no nominating caucus and certainly is no primary election, but certainly is an event of some sort.

We’re simply not sure what.

This is why:

-- In 1979, the straw poll was established as “a fundraising event for the Iowa Republican Party and a nonbinding test of early organizing strength for Iowa's leadoff nominating caucuses.’’ With low turnout, George H.W. Bush won. He also carried Iowa’s GOP presidential nominating caucuses in 1980, but not the nomination.

-- In 1987, the straw poll attracted nearly 4,000 voters. Television evangelist and Christian Coalition founder Pat Robertson won it, with Kansas Sen. Bob Dole finishing second. Dole carried Iowa’s GOP caucuses in ’88, but lost the nomination that year to Bush, who of course was elected president that year.

-- In 1995, straw poll attendance grew to nearly 11,000. Dole and Texas Sen. Phil Gramm shared first place. Dole carried on, winning the GOP caucuses in ’96 as well as the party nomination. But he lost to President Bill Clinton, who won reelection that year.

-- In 1999, the “spectacle’’ attracted more than 38,000 people, roughly 24,000 of whom cast votes. Billionaire publisher Steve Forbes spent $2 million on the straw poll, including money to provide air conditioning in his hospitality tents outside the Hilton Coliseum. He finished second to then-Gov. George W. Bush of Texas, who spent roughly $850,000 on his straw poll campaign and went on to win the caucuses and nomination.

Which means, in short, that only two of the Republicans who have carried the party’s Iowa Straw Poll during its nearly three decades of practice have gone on to win the party’s nomination the following year, and only one became president the year after claiming victory in the basketball arena in Ames which likely will be packed to the nosebleed seats on Saturday.

But the barbecue is a sure bet.