Obama draws college-educated. So did Bill Bradley: The Swamp
 
The Swamp
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Posted August 18, 2007 7:00 AM
The Swamp

bradley.jpg

Bill Bradley, former senator from New Jersey and basketball star, another candidate for president who was more popular with the college-educated crowd. University of California at Berkeley photo.

by Mark Silva

The smarter Democrats are, the more they tend to support Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois – at least that’s one way of reading the results of a Gallup Poll analysis of support for candidates seeking the party’s presidential nomination in 2008.

Obama fares better among the college-educated.

That comes with a caveat, however: Candidates who have held greater appeal to the more highly educated voters haven’t always won the nomination, and if one did, he lost the election.

Gallup, analyzing its polls from July and August, has found that Obama’s support rises from 19 percent among Democrats with a high school education or less, to 28 percent among those who attended college but did not finish, and 33 percent among college graduates.

By contrast, Gallup has found, front-running Democrat New York Sen. Hillary Clinton’s support runs in the other direction: 51 percent among Democrats with a high school education or less, 45 percent among those with some college education, and 33 percent among college graduates.

So, while Clinton holds an advantage over Obama by 32 percentage points (51 to 19) among Democrats with the least formal education, “she merely ties him among the most educated Democrats.’’

The problem here, for Obama, is that he is not the first one to stand better in party primary contests among the college educated.

Bill Bradley did in 2000.

Bob Kerrey did in 1992.

And Michael Dukakis did in 1988.

“Obama and future candidates who have a stronger appeal to educated Democrats can look to Dukakis' campaign as a model for success, and attempt to avoid the more common fate among past candidates whose support increased by respondent education level,’’ Gallup reports.

“While Obama's pattern of support certainly does not mean his candidacy is doomed,’’ Gallup notes, “he would be bucking the recent historical trend of Democratic nomination outcomes should he win.’’

For more on the history and the methodology of this survey, see the Gallup report.

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Comments

Is that the same Bill Bradley that said that a racist who thought Blacks were not even really humans (Woodrow Wilson) was one of the greatest presidents?
The same Bill Bradley who said that another great president was one who oversaw 50% inflation in 4 years and ignored genocide (Jimmy Carter) was another great president?
Being college educated does not mean you are smart, especially in these days when the typical college college grad can't find Chicago on a map of Illinois.


So what does that tell us about America? My guess is we don't want smart people running our government. We don't even want people who act smart or look smart. If I were Obama's advisers I would have him bar hopping on Rush Street, or hanging out in Cicero. That make some folks think that he's "good people."
I'll even bet if he got a pick up truck, an old pick up truck, and drove around with a wad of chaw in his cheeks the good ol boys would take more of a hankerin' to him than to Hillary/Bill. What do college people know?


From what I understand the poll said college graduates. Does this mean smarter? I don't think so, just means someone had the money to continue schooling while someone else did not.


It's becoming increasingly difficult for Swamp columnists to find good poll results for their man Barack. In this case, they seize upon a Gallup poll that breaks Democrats down by education level, and finds Obama tied with Clinton among college-educated Democrats.

The Gallup poll results Swamp reporters avoid telling you: Clinton widens her lead over St. Barack to a whopping 22%. From the Aug. 9th Gallup poll:

"Clinton Bounds Further Ahead in Democratic Contest
Now has 22-point lead over Obama; Gore's running makes little difference

by Lydia Saad

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Sen. Hillary Clinton strengthened her frontrunner status in the Democratic field over the past month, pulling 10 points further ahead of Sen. Barack Obama than she was in mid-July. According to the August 3-5 USA Today/Gallup Poll, none of the other announced contenders for the 2008 Democratic nomination are within striking distance of Clinton, and only former Sen. John Edwards appears strong enough to potentially compete with Obama for second place.

Clinton is now the preferred nominee of 48% of Democrats nationwide, compared with Obama's 26%. Last month, she led by a smaller 12-point margin, 40% vs. 28%. Most of the change is due to increased support for Clinton rather than a decline in support for Obama."


I have a College education and I say Obama is an empty suit. And nobody has ever been able to effectively dispute that.

It seems as though some other supposedly educated people are taking a superficial view: they're impressed with his relative youth, his appearance, his diploma. Whenever I've asked for specifics (here and elsewhere) about why Obama? I never get a real answer. If my question isn't simply ignored, I get the same vague, robot-like response about "hope" and a "new direction".

The reality of Obama's political life belie his bumpersticker platitudes. He's a garden variety Cook County hack.


It's not that we don't want smart people running our country, GW, we don't have enough smart people to outweigh the votes or the "dumb" or more easily swayed. A lot of the tactics used in presidential politics are aimed at the lowest common denominator, and I don't remember any of the candidates mentioned in this article using much of those. That's how we end up with a president like George W. Bush, who appealed to people's fear of terrorists, and also basically lambasted Kerry by making fun of him (flipflopper, etc.) the entire campaign. People love a bully apparently. I'm not saying the "noneducated" choice is always worse, but I think that's what's basically at play here.


ICPNH,

I say a Harvard University law school graduate editor of the Harvard Law Review is packing a smoking ass IQ with impressive leadership skills as witnessed by the subsequent comments on Obama by Senator Richard Lugar.

Your shallow lack of objectivity is apparent when you make mention of "...his appearance...."


Once again, someone mentions Obama's "leadership skills," just as others mention Hillary's "leadership experience." The fact is, the average McDonald's restaurant manager has more leadership experience and more demonstrated leadership skills than either Obama or Clinton, neither of whom has ever worked in a significant management position anywhere. Has the White House suddenly become a "learn while you earn" situation? The only Democrat with real executive experience is Bill Richardson. Name one company which wishes to survive
that would name a totally inexperienced person in management to be its CEO.


Know how many college degrees Harry Truman had? How many Jimmy Carter has? Need any more proof as to why
a college education does not necessarily make for a good president?


The gentlemen you list had an unfortunate lack, along with John Glenn another great candidate. but they are all

CHARISMA IMPAIRED, not the case here.


I guess the RNC is scared to death of Obama, the way bruce analdice keeps trumping up Hillary's poll numbers. The Republic's slime machine is already well greased for Hillary. Desperate wingnuts can't rally their supporters around any of the current crop of "stay the coursers", but they think they can rally the base against a Clinton. Apparently, once you've embraced the politics of personal destruction, there's no going back. Problem for the republics, dems have learned to play the game too. Let's all roll around in the gutter together, shall we?

ICPNH (Juan),

Just curious, do any of the current crop of "empty suits" make the grade, in your opinion? Since you voted for the worst president in history, Dubya, what makes you qualified to judge?


They probably all eat arugula.


ICPNH:

Seeing as how I am still registered as a Republican (for the time being), I am not a big fan of Barak Obama owing primarily to his party affiliation. However, I think you do the man wrong.

Of all the Democrats running for President, Senator Obama sounds the LEAST like a typical left-wing "plunder and spoil" socialist. I don't understand why has taken this approach, but he gets plus points from me for this all the same.

Second, your assessment seems to ignore what actually comes out of his mouth. I see in his words a great deal of THOUGHT, even if I don't always agree with his conclusions. You can tell that he has thought out a number of the long term consequences of policies before he speaks about them. That beats the daylights out of the normal, nearsightedness that we see from the "we'll-fix-it-for-today" crowd that is found among potential candidates in both major parties.

Third, Senator Obama appears to be genuinely interested in the aspirations and views of other people. That stands in stark contrast to other candidates in his own party, and Hillary Clinton in particular, who openly mistrust the ability of the average citizen to order his or her own affairs.

So, you might not think much of Senator Obama, and only time will tell of his substance; but he defies what you said about his being a typical Cook County hack. He is different in a good sort of way. I think he deserves that much.


Auburn,

After what we've seen from this CEO president, maybe that's not something to recommend one by.

Of the candidates, Mitt probably has the strongest management skills. Problem is, he's running so fast to pander to the RR wingnut base, can he ever slow down long enough to bring the Independents on board? I don't think so.

Mitt's people will try and sell you on the revelations that made Romney "see the light" over abortion and stem-cell policy. Cynics will be reminded of Rove's tactics in 2004, and label him a world-class "flip-flopper". Pay-back's a bitch.


Auburn:

Prior executive experience is not all that it's cracked up to be. Bush and Carter both had prior executive experience in spades, having both served at least one term as a State governor. Both were (and are) horrible presidents. JFK had no demonstrable, prior executive experience in the civilian world and, yet, he was one of the better presidents we had during the last half of the 20th Century. So, the answer is: "Yes," the office of President does allow for some on-the-job training.


I graduated college. I also know plenty of people who have graduated college and who have not. I can tell you from personal experience: A college degree or accomplishments at said college or university do not make one "smart." So please, Mark Silva, do not attempt to paint this as somehow meaning "smart people support Obama." Smart and educated are not exact synonyms.


John W,

I agree with one thing: He should run as a Republican.

A general note: I see another of the mentally challenged is calling me by one of several other (male) names. This happens periodically and I'm not sure what it's about. My parents had a sense of humor, it's true, but it different go so far as to give me a boys' name.


ICPNH,

I say a Harvard University law school graduate editor of the Harvard Law Review is packing a smoking ass IQ with impressive leadership skills as witnessed by the subsequent comments on Obama by Senator Richard Lugar.

Your shallow lack of objectivity is apparent when you make mention of "...his appearance...."

Posted by: Doug Zook | August 18, 2007 12:32 PM


Doug,

I agree that his sheepskin is evidence of him being "book smart". However, some of his recent gaffes show a lack real smarts. To paraphrase others in this thread: some of the dumbest people I've ever met have letters after their names and vice versa.

As for my mention of Obama's appearance -- It doesn't say anything about my objectivity. Appearance is (always was) a factor in politics. (Yes, the electors can be shallow.) I'm saying Obama's candidacy doesn't have much more to it than that. I'm still waiting to be proven wrong.

Getting to the heart of the matter, I see that you carefully avoided addressing the real problem with your candidate: that he's desperately trying to tell everybody that he's different and yet he's so very much the same in terms of "playing the game" as somebody else put it. He is at least as self serving as anybody else in politics. He's been bought and paid for by the lobbyists and major corporations.

Oh right, we needn't worry; he's just "playing the game" so that he can become president and change it all. That's naive, even silly, on it's face. And the fact is that he is a product of the Cook County Democratic Party (internationally famous for corruption) underlines the silliness.

So yet again I ask: what does he have to offer?


Let us be careful not to make the judgement that, first, Obama is not "black enough" and then later that Obama is not "dumb enough."

We have a president and Chicago has a mayor that, if they had been black or of another minority race, would have been laughed out of town as "uneducated" for the manner in which they speak. And yet, when a bright, articulate candidate of color comes along, the questions become "Is he black enough?" and later "Is he dumb enough?" What's next, "Can he dance?"


Name one company which wishes to survive
that would name a totally inexperienced person in management to be its CEO.

Posted by: Auburn | August 18, 2007 2:07 PM

Arbust Energy and the Texas Rangers. That was two, Auburn.


Name one company which wishes to survive
that would name a totally inexperienced person in management to be its CEO.

Posted by: Auburn | August 18, 2007 2:07 PM

Arbusto Energy and the Texas Rangers. That was two, Auburn.


The Smarter,Educated,Intellegent, the more they tend to support Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois – at least that’s the results of the final DATA analysis result that support for candidates seeking the party’s presidential nomination in 2008.
SO if you happened to bump with anyone that againts Obama ideas,you can just Dump and Classified him/her the 2008..Forrest Gump,Dumb and Dummer of the year or anything you wish but you dont have to sweats out for any arguments since you know under which category they're belong.Wasting your time and efforts,not worth the flutter.
All Mums used to said to their Offsprings...the Rule.".Never Once in your lifetime trying againts the DATA"
Wishing all Mothers a "Happy Mother's Day".
Jack


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