by Frank James
The big story coming out of President Bush's surprise visit to Iraq yesterday was his statement that U.S. troop levels there could be cut if the success cited by military commanders continues.
Here's how my colleague and Swamp dynamo Mark Silva wrote in his story today :
If security gains in Iraq continue, Bush said during his inspection Monday, the U.S. will be able to "maintain the same level of security with fewer American forces.""When we begin to draw down troops from Iraq, it will be from a position of strength and success, not from a position of fear and failure," Bush told several hundred Marines assembled at an air base in Anbar province. Any drawdown will be based on a "calm" assessment of conditions on the ground by military leaders, Bush said, not the "nervous" reaction of politicians watching opinion polls.
But according to military experts, a significant reduction of U.S. forces in Iraq next spring is a foregone conclusion, specifically in April, whatever the situation on the ground because, as the experts say, the troop surge can't extend beyond that without extending the 15-month rotations troops are currently serving.
There just aren't enough replacement brigades available to keep the surge going past that point without making already deployed troops stay longer. And Defense Secretary Robert Gates has indicated he's against that.
Meanwhile, the Joint Chiefs of Staff reportedly underscored to the commander-in-chief last week during his visit to the Pentagon that the services are facing a severe personnel strain, another factor which one would think would make lengthening the rotations unlikely.
So there will be a draw down, at the latest next spring, and it will be forced by the U.S. military hitting the wall in terms of available troops.
So why did the president say there won't be a troop reduction unless conditions on the ground dictate. Even Iraqi insurgents can read the reports on the Internet that say otherwise.
The only way the president could stay true to his vow is if he plans to extend Iraq tours yet again. But he's not saying that.







Comments
This "illusion" the pro-war Wingnuts are trying to create about how we are "winning" in Al-Anbar is just that, an "illusion".
From the Washington Post:
If there is one indisputable truth regarding the current offensive, it is this: When large numbers of U.S. troops are funneled into areas, security improves. But the numbers only partly describe the reality on the ground. Visits to key U.S. bases and neighborhoods in and around Baghdad show that recent improvements are sometimes tenuous, temporary, even illusory.
In many areas, U.S. forces are now working at cross-purposes with Iraq's elected Shiite-led government by financing onetime Sunni insurgents who say they now want to work with the Americans. The loyalties of the Iraqi military and police -- widely said to be infiltrated by Shiite militias -- remain in doubt.
Even U.S. soldiers assigned to protect Petraeus's showcase remain skeptical. "Personally, I think it's a false representation," Campbell said, referring to the portrayal of the Dora market as an emblem of the surge's success. "But what can I say? I'm just doing my job and don't ask questions."
Posted by: John E | September 4, 2007 1:15 PM
The success of the surge seems really hard to take for some people. Why is it that certain persons live for failure?
Posted by: J. Monroe | September 4, 2007 1:35 PM
Republicans, we must "stay the course" in Iraq....meanwhile our fearless GOP leaders will be hiding under their desks:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QIZIDE5_Es&mode=related&search=
Posted by: John E | September 4, 2007 1:48 PM
We have no choice, we have to draw down. Our military is stretched to the point of breaking. Our military was in much better shape during the Clinton years, and Clinton was a tool!
If right wingers really want to continue this futile war they have two choices:
1) Go enlist! All of you Lazy-Boy warriors leave your parents garage, ride your scooters down to the local Army recruiting center, and join the Army. I am sure we could get the army to take Chickenhawks, they might even make an exception and allow you to bring your teddy bears and security blankets. Of course, that might take courage, something none of you have.
2) Support openly and loudly a draft. We need more cannon fodder, I mean boots on the ground. Barring a massive enlistment "surge" by the self styled "Patriotic" right wing bloggers our only option is a draft. Oh, and while we are on the subject of a draft maybe we should make it so there aren't any exemptions or deferrements. If Bush and Cheney had the courage to fight in the first Vietnam maybe they wouldn't have started the second Vietnam (by that I mean Iraq.)
Of course the right wingers would never do either of those things, so there will be a draw down. And it won't be on our terms.
Posted by: nisleib | September 4, 2007 1:50 PM
From The Huffington Post and Daily Kos
Young Republican Chickenhawks:
1. Michelle Malkin, age 36
Time left to enlist: 5 years, 4 months, 16 days
Michelle is a prime candidate for the military. She knows more about terrorism and war than anybody. Just ask her. She even has first hand experience, having spent a whole week in Iraq earlier this year trying to gain some type of moral authority over her legions of detractors. But what makes Michelle ideal for the military, is the fact that she not only has a fervent hatred of terrorists, but that she also finds foreigners inherently distasteful. And what better place to fight terrorists and foreigners than in foreign countries with lots of terrorism? I mean, fight them there, so we don’t have to fight them here, right?
With her degree, they may even let Michelle become an officer.
2. Matt Drudge, age 40
Time left to enlist: 1 year, 4 months, 23 days
If Matt Drudge is going to enlist, he better do it soon. We’re talking less than a year and a half here for this protector of The American Way and Tabloid-Style News. Matt thinks the war in Iraq is awesome—and he slanders lies about those who don’t. He owes it to himself to pull at least one tour in the urban jungles of Iraq.
3. Patrick McHenry, age 31
Time left to enlist: 10 years, 4 months, 18 days
Patrick McHenry is perhaps the smarmiest, smuggest member of the U.S. House of Representatives. On February 7, 2007, as a member of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, McHenry vehemently defended Blackwater USA—whose home state of North Carolina he represents. Patrick is primarily suited for the military because of his youthfulness and his penchant for vomiting up stupid Republican talking points:
They're advocating a policy called cut and run. They're advocating a policy of waving the white flag to our enemies. It is a policy, Mr. Speaker, make no mistake about it, that the left in this country are advocating. But we are fighting a war. We are fighting a war against Islamic extremists that hate the very fiber of our being as Americans.
We? We who? And would that be the Sunnis or the Shia? It is very rare, even in this day and age, to find someone so young, so passionate about defending this nation, and so willing to lead the nation on the path to war, who has no desire to fight it himself.
4. Dan Bartlett, age 36
Time left to enlist: 5 years, 11 months, 3 days
George W. Bush’s longest serving aide, Dan Bartlett, announced last week that he was resigning his position with the White House to enlist accept a commission "pursue new career options" in the private sector. Dan has come to be known as a hardcore apologist for Bush’s stubbornness concerning reality. While the White House is certain to miss him, the military could really use him—especially the Army Reserves, which is already 1,300 soldiers short of its mid-year goal this year.
5. Jonah Goldberg, age 38
Time left to enlist: 3 years, 9 months, 17 days
This guy is great. I couldn’t make this stuff up if I tried. When asked by one of Juan Cole’s readers why Goldberg (a rabid Iraq war proponent) didn’t have his ass "in the kill zone," Goldberg responded in a manner typical of many pseudo-erudite, arrogant chickenhawks:
As for why my sorry ass isn't in the kill zone, lots of people think this is a searingly pertinent question. No answer I could give -- I'm 35 years old, my family couldn't afford the lost income, I have a baby daughter, my ass is, er, sorry, are a few -- ever seem to suffice.
Right. Because those are certainly disqualifying criteria for military service. Jonah is also the genius who lost the bet to Juan Cole over how Iraq would turn out. On February 8, 2005, Goldberg said:
Anyway, I do think my judgment is superior to his when it comes to the big picture. So, I have an idea: Since he doesn't want to debate anything except his own brilliance, let's make a bet. I predict that Iraq won't have a civil war, that it will have a viable constitution, and that a majority of Iraqis and Americans will, in two years time, agree that the war was worth it. I'll bet $1,000 (which I can hardly spare right now).
Posted by: John E | September 4, 2007 2:41 PM
"...the U.S. will be able to 'maintain the same level of security with fewer American forces.'"
President Bush
"But according to military experts, a significant reduction of U.S. forces in Iraq next spring is a foregone conclusion..."
- Frank James
How can Frank James so easily misconstrue President Bush's message. The president's message is that DESPITE troop reduction, the "level of security" will remain the same.
You can argue about whether that will be possible. But you can't twist the president's words to imply that he's saying there won't be a "troop reduction."
Posted by: Bud McFarlin | September 4, 2007 2:42 PM
The most optimistic interpretation of Bush's statement is that he is trying to find a way to declare victory and get the US out of Iraq pronto.
Leave a batallion or two in Kuwait for show, if you have to.
But that is unlikely. What is more likely is that Bush is going to put out a lot of hype about merely ending the surge...making it look like these are real troop reductions when the surge was never supposed to be permanent.
And if that still leaves the forces short, don't be too sure Cheney won't talk W into going for a draft or a service extension. Or military attacks on Iran to justify continued high troop levels in Iraq and other parts of the Middle East..
They have over a year to make some more really bad decisions and to carry them out.
And Cheney, who has much more influence that Clueless Condi and Gates, has, as we know, got war fever.
Posted by: Helena | September 4, 2007 3:26 PM
And of course a NATO or UN force is an impossibility. Everyone knows Europe hates us, even though both Germany and France voted in pro-US leaders.
How do we know they hate us? The unbiased news people tell us.
Posted by: whatnow | September 4, 2007 4:29 PM
And of course a NATO or other international force is impossible. Europe hates us. The news people told me so.
Posted by: whatnow | September 4, 2007 4:34 PM
Of course, the problem is the same when earboy was running businesses. He destroyed them with bad decisions, and daddy's rich buddies had to keep bailing him out. Fortunately for us, there is no bailing out a bad presidential legacy. When you find yourself in a hole, the first thing you need to do is stop digging. I guess this bit of wisdom was lost on pretzel boy.
Posted by: snitramc | September 4, 2007 7:43 PM