Bush: 'Success' means some soldiers come home

Bush delivered the address from his desk in the Oval Office. White House photo by Eric Draper.

by Mark Silva

President Bush, insisting that his escalation of military forces in Iraq has made substantial progress, promised tonight to withdraw thousands of U.S. troops from the battlefield by next summer, a payoff from his newly articulated principle of a “return on success.”

Military leaders say the scale-down – with 5,700 soldiers and Marines returning home “by Christmas,’’ and four more Army brigades and two Marine battalions leaving Iraq by mid-July 2008 – should return the U.S. military presence to nearly the level of 130,000 troops stationed in Iraq before Bush announced a “surge’’ of forces in January.

Yet, while Republican congressional leaders praise the president for “turning a corner’’ in Iraq, Democratic leaders complain that the United States will merely return to the status quo that existed earlier this year in Iraq – leaving an “open-ended commitment’’ to military forces in a war which most Americans oppose.

The surge, the president maintained in a nationally televised address from the Oval Office, has made Iraq safer and the continuing mission is critical to the security of the United States.

“The principle guiding my decisions on troop levels in Iraq is ‘return on success,’’’ the president said in his address to the nation. “The more successful we are, the more American troops can return home.’’

Yet critics contend that Iraqi leaders have failed to take advantage of the opportunity that the surge was intended to provide them, seeking a political reconciliation of warring factions that continue to make Baghdad and certain regions of Iraq deadly. The White House itself is prepared to concede in a progress report to Congress on Friday that the Iraqis have reached only half of the milestones which Congress has set.

Sen. Jack Reed of Rhode Island, a West Point-trained former Army Ranger and opponent of the war in Iraq, said in the Democratic Party’s response to Bush’s address that “a nation eager for change’’ heard neither “a plan to successfully end the war or a convincing rationale to continue it.

“An endless and unlimited military presence in Iraq is not an option,’’ said Reed, vowing that Democrats, after months of political battle with Bush, “intend to exercise our Constitutional duties and profoundly change our military involvement in Iraq’’ – without explaining how the Democrats will wrest control over the war.

Republican leaders rallied around the president.

“One of the thing that really jumps out from the speech is that we are able to withdraw troops immediately as a result of the success of the surge,’’ said Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) “We’ve turned a corner in Iraq and are headed to a new place.’’

Yet the frustration of the war was underscored again today, critics say, in the killing of a Sunni tribal leader with whom Bush had met just last week in the western Anbar province of Iraq, a region touted as a model of the surge’s success – a killing which Bush noted in own his speech even as he pointed to Anbar’s progress.

“The enemy remains active and deadly,’’ Bush allowed in his relatively short address from his White House desk.

Democrats insist that the drawdown which Bush plans falls far short of what’s needed.

“The force reductions proposed tonight by the president, while welcome, do not take the necessary step of changing the mission of American forces in Iraq and getting our forces out of policing a civil war,’’ said Rep. Ike Skelton (D-Mo.), chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. “We need to begin a more significant redeployment of our troops from Iraq.’’

Bush has based his strategy squarely on the recommendations of Gen. David Petraeus, commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, who spent two days with Ryan Crocker, U.S. ambassador to Iraq, promoting the plan on Capitol Hill this week in the face of harsh skepticism among Democratic leaders.

Petraeus has said his plan will return combat forces to “pre-surge’’ levels, but neither the White House nor Department of Defense today could put a precise number on the troops that will return under the plan that the president now has endorsed. The U.S. had about 130,000 troops in Iraq before the “surge,’’ and 169,000 are stationed in Iraq today.

The overall numbers of brigades in Iraq will be cut from 20 to 15 next summer, according to senior administration officials. The withdrawal involves five Army brigades, one Marine expeditionary force and two Marine battalions.

With about 3,500 soldiers in each brigade – such as the one leaving in December – 2,200 in the Marine expeditionary unit leaving ithis month and about 600-800 in each Marine battalion, that means about 21,000 combat forces will leave Iraq by July, under this plan. But a Defense Department official says what cannot be predicted at this stage is how many supporting forces will follow in their paths.

The strategy includes “a gradual change in mission,’’ according to a senior administration official. This involves U.S. forces playing more of a supporting role and less of a leading role in maintaining security.

At the same time, neither Petraeus nor the president has committed to what, if any, draw-downs they foresee after July. Petraeus will make “a fresh assessment’’ of the situation in March, the president said, and deliver a new report to Congress then. The administration official said: “The president is very clear that we want to rely on conditions on the ground, not the calendar.’’

Readily allowing that Iraqi leaders have failed to make the political progress which Congress has demanded as a contingency for continued war funding, Bush insisted that the surge has made parts of Iraq safer.

“The premise of our strategy is that securing the Iraqi population is the foundation for all other progress,’’ the president said. “Our success in meeting these objectives now allows us to begin bringing some of our troops home.’’

While Democratic congressional leaders are critical of the surge as well as the way forward which Bush has charted, they have lacked the votes to block the president’s war strategies.

Republicans are confident that they can hold the line against Democratic initiatives.

McConnell said: “The key question is going to be whether some kind of proposal with a retreat date—a withdrawal date—is going to pass in the Senate, and I’m optimistic that no such proposal will pass.’’

Holding out the impending withdrawal as a matter of good political faith, the president has called on Congress to work with him in the months ahead.

“The way forward I have described tonight makes it possible, for the first time in years, for people who have been on opposite side of this difficult debate to come together,’’ Bush said, addressing Congress directly. “I ask you to join me in supporting the recommendations Gen. Petraeus has made.’’

The president maintained, as he has before, that the fight in Iraq is critical to the safety of the U.S., with Bush viewing Iraq as the central battleground in a global war on terror.

“Tonight, our moral and strategic imperatives are one: We must help Iraq defeat those who threaten its future – and also threaten ours,’’ Bush said. “It is never too late to support our troops in a fight they can win.’’