by Andrew Malcolm
Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York holds a strong lead among Democratic candidates for president in all three of the premier 2008 primary and caucus states, a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg News poll shows.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney holds a clear advantage among Republicans in Iowa, the poll shows, and holds a narrower advantage over GOP rivals n New Hampshire. And Fred Thompson, the former senator from Tennessee and television star who entered the race just last week, has claimed an instant advantage in South Carolina, the survey shows.
At the beginning of the autumn dash to the primaries, a new Times/Bloomberg Poll of 3,211 Democrats and Republicans in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina shows that Hillary Clinton maintains a strong lead in all three states (28%, 35% and 45%, respectively). John Edwards is a relatively close second in Iowa (23%) with Barack Obama at 19%, tied for second at 16% with Obama in New Hampshire and trailing Obama badly (27% to 7%) in South Carolina.
Bill Richardson has 10% in Iowa, 8% in New Hampshire and 1% in South Carolina. Joe Biden, Dennis Kucinich and Chris Dodd all draw 3% to 0% in the three states.
In the Republican race, Mitt Romney holds a clear lead in Iowa (28%) to Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson tied for second at 16%. Mike Huckabee comes in third at 8%, John McCain at 7%, Tom Tancredo at 3%, Ron Paul and Sam Brownback at 2% and Duncan Hunter at 1%.
Romney maintains a slimmer lead in New Hampshire, 28% to Giuliani's 23%, while McCain has moved up to third with 12% and Thompson at 11%, two points behind Don't Know. In South Carolina, newcomer Thompson has surged into the lead with 26% to Giuliani's 23%, McCain's 15% and Romney's 9%. Huckabee has 6%. The poll was taken Sept. 6-10 with a margin of error of +/- 4 or 5%.
Iowa Democrats find Edwards the most likable (31%) followed by Obama (28%), Clinton (20%) and Richardson (9%). In New Hampshire they like Obama best (29%), Edwards next (26%) and Clinton third (20%). In South Carolina, Clinton is the most popular (38%) to Obama's 27% and Edwards' 18%.
The poll shows a high interest in the races across the board ranging from 95% of...
New Hampshire Democrats to 84% of South Carolina Republicans. They also show more volatility in the GOP race with 72% in Iowa, 50% in New Hampshire and 64% in South Carolina saying they still might change their mind on a candidate.
For Democrats, the change factor is 59% in Iowa, 47% in New Hampshire and 45% in South Carolina.
Nine percent of Iowa and New Hampshire Democrats could never vote for Clinton while 7% felt the same in South Carolina. Five to 8% of Democrats in all three states could never vote for Obama or Edwards.
Among Republicans, 12% in Iowa, 11% in New Hampshire and 8% in South Carolina could never vote for Giuliani, while the respective numbers for McCain were 9%, 10% and 13%, for Thompson 6%, 7% and 4% and for Romney only 4%, 5% and 8%.
Democrats seem to agree that Clinton has the best chance of beating the Republicans in 2008--38% in Iowa, 45% in New Hampshire and 48% in South Carolina. Edwards places second at 23%, 15% and 11% respectively while Obama trails at 14%, 15% and 18%. In Iowa, Obama is beaten by Unsure at 15%.
Romney strikes Iowa Republicans as most likely to win at 28% to Giuliani's 20%, but Rudy seems more electable to New Hampshire (33%) and South Carolina (31%) Republicans than Romney at 28% and 12%. Thompson seems the second most electable only among South Carolina Republicans (21%), but trails Romney and Giuliani in Iowa (17%) and New Hampshire (10%).
Andrew Malcolm writes for Top of the Ticket, the Los Angeles Times' political blog.
Comments
What are the Democrats thinking!
Of all choices in the field why Hillary! I can't beleive they like her! And why on earth do they think she has a chance of winning a general election? People (even people like me, who are likely Dem voters in this particular election) HATE HER!!!!!!!!!!
And what are Republicans thinking? Romney? I know the GOP field is weak, but it isn't that weak.
Thompson, of the three mentioned, is probably the only one I would vote for. But that is only because I don't know much about where he stands on the issues.
Posted by: nisleib | September 11, 2007 5:48 PM
That poll surprises me in that Democrats in the primary states think Hillary has the best chance to defeat a Republican candidate. In my view, there are hard core left wingers and hard core right wingers who are going to vote for their parties' candidate regardless of who it is. However, I think this election will come down to who can sway moderates from the opposing party. In my opinion, Hillary is the least likely of the big 3 Democrat candidates to sway moderate Republican voters. Fair or not, she is perceived as a polarizing figure.
Posted by: Herbie H. | September 11, 2007 6:17 PM
I say if the Democrats don't believe in anything other than a dynasty and name recognition then they deserve what they get. Look past the scandals and flip flopping at your own peril. Either she loses to a Republican because Republicans/Independents/some Democrats would rather die than vote for her, or she wins by the skin of her teeth. Either way it's horrible. I have hope until the very last primary, after that this country has no hope. Bush=Clinton
Posted by: Bhar | September 11, 2007 7:38 PM
Once the Republic Party Prez nominee is chosen, the angry old rich white guy who is running for the GOP will start getting big checks from their Saudi oil pals just like Prez McFlightsuit did.
Posted by: John E | September 11, 2007 7:42 PM
Any poll that shows Ron Paul at the same level as Sam Brownback is suspect. Paul has 40,000 volunteers and speaks to crowds near 1,000 or more wherever he goes. Brownback has almost no support and has trouble drawing a crowd of any size.
Someone's cooking the books, or missing all of the independents, Democrats, and Libertarians who are going to switch to Republican in the primaries to support Ron Paul.
Posted by: Craig | September 11, 2007 9:01 PM
GO RON PAUL! GO RON PAUL! GOD BLESS RON PAUL!
RON PAUL FOR PRESIDENT 2008!
Best Ron Paul video - (Reply: WRONG!...Best Presidential Candidacy Video EVER!!!)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFfdB5OzlyQ
Posted by: Chris Lawton | September 11, 2007 10:38 PM
Hillary is the one the repubs "Fear" most, for they know she will beat them in the General. The repubs have a big problem with their base, in that any of these guys currently running has a no no in their past. The dems main problem is the far-left wing of their party. However this turns out, most likely a moderate from each party will be nominated.
Posted by: lylepink | September 11, 2007 10:41 PM
Craig,
Let us know when Ron Paul gets above the +3/-3 national poll error number.
Paulo
Posted by: Paulo | September 11, 2007 11:54 PM
No Hillary does not have a commanding lead in Iowa as the writer claims.
Posted by: George Chell | September 12, 2007 8:39 AM