by Frank James
Does experience trump change in the contest for potential Democratic primary voters?
According to Gallup's pollsters, change is much more important than experience for such voters.
PRINCETON, NJ -- The Democratic presidential nomination could well be decided on the basis of whether Democratic primary and caucus voters prefer an experienced candidate or one who would make changing the way things are done in Washington his or her top priority.
Hillary Clinton -- with a comfortable lead in nomination preference polling at this point -- is making her case for the nomination on the basis of her extensive experience in Washington, including her eight years as first lady and her six-plus years as a U.S. senator. Her closest competitors, Barack Obama and John Edwards, have much less federal government experience -- Edwards served one six-year term in the U.S. Senate, and Obama is in his third year as a U.S. senator. Not surprisingly, Obama and Edwards are attempting to portray themselves as Washington outsiders and are focusing their campaign message on their ability to bring change to the nation's capital.
In spite of Clinton's comfortable lead in nomination preference polls, a recent Gallup Panel survey finds that -- in theory, at least -- Democrats by a large margin attach more importance to a candidate who would bring about change than to one who has experience.
That should be good news for Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois who has framed his presidential candidacy as his being an agent for change, a necessary argument for him since he's so short on Washington experience.
Conversely, it should be unwelcome news for Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York who has been in Washington for the last 15 years, which doesn't exactly allow her to sell herself as the force for change though it gives her the decided advantage with voters for whom experience is important.
Nonetheless, Clinton has a substantial lead over Obama in national polls and also leads him in Iowa and New Hampshire, according to recent state polls.
So while voters say change is more important to them than experience, most of them appear to be choosing the candidate with more Washington time served.
Still, Clinton's internal polls must be showing the same thing Gallup found, that she gets low marks from change-seeking voters, that it's a real vulnerability.
That would explain why over the weekend she was saying change was just a word if a candidate doesn't have the ability that comes from experience to accomplish it.







Comments
Bring on the elections, Repugs!
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C02E1DA163FF936A35757C0A9619C8B63
Posted by: John E | September 4, 2007 5:05 PM
Smart as they are, I'm certain Obamas campaign managers will not rely solely on a promise of change to win the nomination.
Disappointment with the lack of change thus far after the 2006 election would offer a compelling reason to cast a vote in favor of Clinton at the nominating convention.
This possible scenario isn't likely to be lost on the Obama campaign, so I wouldn't be a bit surprised
if, as the convention nears, the Obama campaign
takes the gloves off and goes at Clinton full-tilt
with all the innuendo, smear and ad-hominem attacks that make politics a blood-sport.
Posted by: johnf | September 4, 2007 5:17 PM
Gallup released a poll yesterday with bad news for St. Barack: "Among all Democrats, Clinton currently leads the Democratic field by about a two-to-one margin over Obama. "
The increasingly despairing Obama PR firm known as the Swamp ignores this poll to focus on the above Gallup Poll that actually isn't much better for Obama, but whose results can be twisted into looking better for him.
If this is the best Obama's Swamp friends can do for him, then Obama is truly in trouble.
Posted by: Bruce | September 4, 2007 5:24 PM
Gallup released a poll yesterday with bad news for St. Barack: "Among all Democrats, Clinton currently leads the Democratic field by about a two-to-one margin over Obama. "
Posted by: Bruce | September 4, 2007 5:24 PM
RNC Bruce,
Polls don't mean anything this early but fundraing does and the Nascar Party is losing that game too:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/2007-04-16-prezmoney_N.htm
Posted by: John E | September 4, 2007 5:49 PM
Bruce,
then lets also look at the Rasmussen polls released this week that show that Hillary loses to Guilliani in a general election, also, that 43% of americans say they'll NEVER vote for Hillary (and this is before the general campaign attacks from the republicans), and in the polls where she does win over the republican candidate, it is by the narrowest margins of all the other dem candidates.
Further, the numbers you quoted are taken as an average, that includes Hillary's unusually high levels of support from uneducated women democrats, and her very low numbers from the other democrats polled.
Also, in a poll released this week, independent voters polled said that 65% think a democrat will win the whitehouse. That number drops by 23% if the pollsters name Hillary as the democratic candidate in question.
(these poll results can be found on the rasmussen website)
The polls that have been quoted showing Hillary in the lead have been distorted. If you look closer at the polls, Hillary's lead is only among a very specific group of people.
Posted by: jds | September 4, 2007 5:59 PM
Washington desperately needs a new look.
Clinton fatigue is real and self-defeating.
Posted by: J. Monroe | September 4, 2007 6:17 PM
Hillary Clinton's experience as senator is only slightly more than that of John Edwards'. And do her eight years as "first spouse" really show lots of experience? She is trying to lead people to believe that she has already been an executive official -- and this is not the case.
Posted by: Anonymous | September 4, 2007 6:18 PM
"That should be good news for Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois who has framed his presidential candidacy as his being an agent for change, a necessary argument for him since he's so short on Washington experience."
Posted by Frank James on September 4, 2007 4:21 PM
Well gosh, he also shows no evidence for being an agent for change. So what does he have going for him?
Posted by: Anonymous | September 4, 2007 6:36 PM
Democratic voters say they want change and yet they chose experience. MAkes sense to me.
Say one thing, do another - no news here for the democratic party.
Posted by: Terry | September 4, 2007 6:44 PM
Terry,
Meanwhile, the Republics run on smaller government, fiscal responsibility and letting the market, not the government, adjust to crises. Yet we get the Dept. of Homeland Security, borrow and spend, record deficits and national debt and a George W bailout of the mortgage industry.
Lying hypocrites that say one thing and do another. No news there for the republics.
Posted by: Pistol Pete | September 4, 2007 7:35 PM
The good news is at least 57% of Americans will consider voting for Hillary. Our current president won the first time with just over 50% voting AGAINST him.
The other good news is Hillary appeals to a broader spectrum of Democrats. She and Obama tied for support among those with college educations according to Swamp in an article spun to make Obama look like the candidate of "smart" people. And she kicked his arse with people who don't have college educations, you know, the "uneducated" that intellectual elitist posters seem to hold in such contempt. Fortunately, one's worthiness to vote in America does not depend on one's pedigree, educational or otherwise.
Obama can't claim the repugnant mantle of candidate of "smart" people, since Hillary enjoys just as much support from this demographic. But Hillary can claim the mantle of candidate of "the" people, since her support knows no social, economic or class boundaries.
So those who dismiss Hillary supporters as "uneducated" and hail Obama as the "smart" peoples' choice go right on ahead. And please continue adding insult to injury by drawing attention to the notion that these "uneducated" Hillary supporters are supposedly women.
And Swamp, "change" and "experience" are not mutually exclusive, they can be synergistic -- as Hillary aptly points out. So the point of this poll is lost on me. Hillary can credibly claim the experience needed to effectuate change.
Obama can't. He can only claim to be an agent of change, yet eight months into has campaign he can offer only the scantest to details how. Why? Because he lacks experience and therefore won't be able to change a thing. Nothing in his track record indicates otherwise.
Posted by: Biggdawg | September 4, 2007 7:39 PM
Terry,
From the Gallup poll:
"The ability to bring about change is not something that only Democrats are seeking in the next president -- 93% of all Americans think this would be a desirable characteristic for the 44th president, including 89% of Republicans. Fifty-six percent of Americans (including 53% of Republicans) believe a lot of experience is desirable."
Next time, try reading the poll results before spouting off hyper-partisan bibble-babble.
Posted by: johnf | September 4, 2007 7:48 PM
Hillary had lots and lots of experience as
First Lady: Picking out the China for
state dinners; Deciding on the decorations for the WH Christmas tree;
Deciding who sat where on the press bus;
Canceling pizza orders for the Oral Office;
and Selecting which Secret Service agent to clean out Socks' litter box.
Posted by: Grover C. | September 4, 2007 8:09 PM
If Hillary wins the Dem nomination, the GOP will have a feast.
Posted by: Mccain | September 4, 2007 8:36 PM
...'Gallup released a poll yesterday with bad news for St. Barack: "Among all Democrats, Clinton currently leads the Democratic field by about a two-to-one margin over Obama. "'...
...again with the polls, heh Bruce...(remember..."Dewey Beats Truman"...Gallup nailed that one right on the head didn't they)...(and since national polls mean absolutly nothing in an election decided at the state level (party nomination primaries and national election both), you just keep cranking them out Bruce and we'll just keep laughing at them)...
...but here's one poll for you Bruce...absolutly correct...50% of the country wants to see Bush and Cheney boiled in oil...
...the other 50% would rather use kerosene...
Posted by: The Original BZ | September 4, 2007 8:37 PM
DEMOCRATS WANT A PRESIDENT, NOT A GOD, NOT A DECIDER, NOT A PERSON WHO HEARS THE VOICES, AND THEN DOESN'T TELL YOU WHAT THE VOICES SAID. DEFINITELY NOT NO MOSES.
DEMOCRATS WANTS SOMEONE WITH A BETTER COLLEGE AVERAGE SCORE THAN 14% AND AN AWOL SENSE OF CONSTITUTIONAL KNOWLEDGE.
DEMOCRATS WANTS A PERSON WHO UNDERSTANDS THE LAW OF THE LAND. DEMOCRATS WANT
A PRESIDENT THAT IS BEYOND EXECUTIVE PRIVILEGE AND TRUST THE CONSTITUTION.
DEMOCRATS WANT AMERICA TO HAVE A FUTURE AND NOT SOME NO BID FEDERAL CONTRACT DEVISED FOR HOMELAND SECURITY AND ALL THE NEW NEGROES AKA IMMIGRANTS, NON-IMMIGRANTS, Z PEOPLE, H1B PEOPLE, HYB PEOPLE. NEW NEGROES, NEW NEGROES.
DEMOCRATS WANT A FAIR AND BALANCE MEDIA. ONE THAT IS SEPARATE FROM GEORGE BUSH, KARL ROVE, DICK CHENEY, RUPPERT MURDOCH, HALLIBURTON, AND GE WAR MONGERING SPONSORS.
BY THE WAY WHERE IS KEN LAY! ELVIS IS ALIVE, SO WHY ISN'T HE. HE WAS KING!
DEMOCRATS WANTS MORE THAN A FRED FIELDING DICTATING THAT THE CONSTITUTION IS NOT THE CONSTITUTION GEORGE, AND WHY DO YOU EVEN BRING IT UP. WE HAVE LESS THAN 18 MONTHS TO DO WHAT THE BRITISH DID "CUT AND RUN."
THE BUSHES ARE COMING THE BUSHES ARE COMING. NO THE 2008 ELECTION IS.
Posted by: Roger Morris | September 4, 2007 8:41 PM
clinton drags ol bill out on the trail, she has a new speech and is again copying Obama (she also has lifted his Dinner with Barack for a lunch with Hillary).
Despite her lead, as she knows most of it is her name and not based on real voter preference, she is getting nervous.
Something must have been found out inside the camp to cause worry and a major retooling.
Obama frequently changes speeches and he also wanted to address the silly experience thing when the media refuses to count his state senate years as experience. I am sure he is fed up with that.
But, Hillary is cautious so, she would not change her campaign unless something is going on.
Posted by: vwcat | September 4, 2007 9:00 PM
PP,
No arguement on the over-spending Repubs from me.
JohnF,
I read Frank James reporting, which I thought would be accurate and he stated "So while voters say change is more important to them than experience, most of them appear to be choosing the candidate with more Washington time served."
I'll stand by my quote "Say one thing, do another". Frank seems to be backing me up.
Posted by: Terry | September 4, 2007 10:49 PM
The people who vote (and no one else counts) prefer the status quo to change.
The people that vote loved Elvis. Now, you might think Elvis represented change. But that's where you're looking at the image, not the guy who championed Richard Nixon.
Again: people say they want change, but they prefer the status quo.
Posted by: Bud McFarlin | September 4, 2007 11:07 PM
hillary has expereince plus change; bill will help her also solve the reputation in this country nthat the bushes make a mess -a republican party.
well the two guys edwards and oabam maybe next time; oabma cannot get along with the republican/dem senate and congress.hes going to have a hard time bec. they feel superior towards the blck guy like obama.
obama belong to a black house.
edwards need to learn as well- otherwise this country is going to be disarray destroy and cramble under obama and edward. i trust the clintons- i was observing the amerca is beautiful during her husband presidency.
ur phsychic lady comments.
Posted by: REAROSE | September 5, 2007 12:05 AM