'No magic switches to flip in Iraq,' ambassador says

by Mark Silva

At the National Press Club this morning, after two arduous days of testimony on Capitol Hill, Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker faced a roomful of reporters at a crowded press conference with Petraeus threatening another opening statement about his report.

“I’ve tried very hard to get my opening statement down to 25 minutes….. and you thought I was serious,’’ said Petraeus at the start of the presser, showing a humorous side and breaking the ice. Actually, he was here with “my diplomatic wing-man’’ and ready for questions.

The questions, with Petraeus and Crocker standing before flags posted in a high-ceilinged paneled lounge of the press club while protesters stationed outside on the downtown street chanted and marched, started with the significance of the fight in Iraq.

“We believe al Qaeda-Iraq is off balance,’’ Petraeus said. “The central front of al Qaeda’s global war is in Iraq… Their freedom of maneuver, their sanctuaries are considerably diminished in Iraq… They are much more on the run at any time that I remember than any time they have been in Iraq.’’

Asked about political reconciliation in Iraq – the missing piece of the puzzle by everyone’s estimate – Crocker said: “The reconciliation in Iraq… has to be managed by Iraqis, reconciling with each other… It’s hard. It’s hard because of Iraq’s rule under Ba’athist reign (for decades)… It’s hard because of the sectarian violence that has spread through Iraq from early ’06 to early ’07. It is going to be a long, difficult process.’’

“There are no magic switches to flip in Iraq – not on reconciliation, not on the other hard issues,’’ Crocker said.

Petraeus also made it clear today that he was not fielding political questions. To one particularly pointed query about the competence of political leaders in Washington, the general said with a laugh :“I’ve spent the last 33 years trying to find my way around minefields rather than going through them.’’

Petraeus was pressed about his sense of the political mood in Washington, and whether he senses declining political patience for the war -- and he was asked about the MoveOn.org newspaper ad this week that called him "Gen. Betray-us.''

"I was sent a poem by Rudyard Kipling actually the morning that ad came out by an old friend,'' he said. The poem: If.

"It might be worth looking at,'' he said. "I took some strength… from that.''

(" If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you
But make allowance for their doubting too...' Kipling wrote.
...."Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - -which is more -- you'll be a Man, my son!'')

"Needless to say,'' Petraeus added, "I disagree with the message'' of some who are exercising a freedom of speech for which the American military has fought for years to defend. But again, he'd take a pass on his political reading of Washington.

"There is a lot of frustration – that’s frustration that we who are serving in Iraq are facing every day,’’ Crocker said. “I really come away from these two days somewhat encouraged. Amidst the frustration there were a number of thoughtful and probing questions.''

Facing today's questions, Petraeus adamantly rejected a suggestion that the drawdown of 30,000 forces by mid-July which he is recommending would have happened anyway as a result of troops reaching the ends of their 15-month deployments.

"I could very easily have requested…. replacements,''' he said, and that includes for Marines who are leaving later this month. "We are coming out quicker than we had to… If you had run every brigade in Iraq… for 15 months… we would not have had to take one out until April,'' he said, noting that the brigade he is withdrawing in December is not a surge brigade.

“Yes, the surge forces were scheduled to go home between April and July,'' he said, "But again, I could have requested more surge forces... It’s just a little bit unfair, but also inaccurate, to say that what we’re doing is letting this thing run out.’’

Petraeus, asked why he cannot set a timeline for troop withdrawals beyond the mid-2008 target he has set for a drawdown to “pre-surge’’ force levels, said: “Just in the past six months, really events we would not have predicted…’’ have unfolded with regional successes. “There are areas where we have been surprised by the rapidity of activity.

“I think it is prudent to avoid predicting, getting locked into something that carries you way out beyond that you cannot with confidence see,’’ Petraeus said in the same calmness and matter-of-factness that characterized his two days of testimony before the House and Senate.

“The challenge is for Iraqis to move it from violence in the street into Parliament,’’ Crocker said. “That’s why the surge is so important. Violence has clearly got to be brought down to a level where political debate can take place… As security starts to take hold, it is kind of interesting, if you are out in the streets, where maybe a couple of months ago the first thing people would tell you was they have to have security, they are now taking that as sort of a given and saying, where are the services?’’

The number of provisional reconstruction teams has grown from 10 to 25, Crocker said. “That’s important, because Iraq’s got the money, what it has to be able to do is execute budgets... and we’re seeing improvements.’’

“If your government is delivering services for you, you’re going to feel a lot better about your government… It also works in Baltimore.’’

Petraeus insists that the surge is making room for political reconciliation. He said what happened in Anbar province “is in effect political – that’s what we’re trying to do – to get the locals to oppose the extremists…. ‘’

Yet, for any gains made in the western Anbar province, the general was reminded, the situation is far different in the southeast of Iraq, where the British have withdrawn forces to one base and where local militias and parties are fighting. He said he could not envision anything more than perhaps some U.S. special operations forces helping with the situation there – not an infusion of troops. “Right now, there is actually quite a low level of attacks… and has been for months now,’’ Petraeus said.

“I think we’re in a wait and see approach with Basra, but we have every expectation that Basra will be resolved by Iraqis,’’ Petraeus said. For now, he said, the goal is “to keep the situation one in which they are shouting rather than shooting.’’

Asked about Iran’s involvement in Iraq, Petraeus said, “It certainly has contributed to a sophistication of attacks.’’ He points to 240-mm rockets being used – “there’s no question where they are coming from.’’

If so much success can be attributed to an escalation of U.S. forces, Petraeus was asked, how will Iraq fare with the drawdown he proposes. The key, he said, lies in Iraqis stepping forward to take charge of security.

“Nowhere is this illustrated better than in Anbar… We banged away in Anbar for years, and disrupted and disrupted and cleared and were not able to clear… Now we have been able to clear… because their young men, emboldened by the public opposition to al Qaeda’’ are volunteering for security services to keep al Qaeda out. “That’s an enormous revolution.

“This is an ethno-sectarian competition for power and resources,’’ said Petraeus, employing eight words for what others call a civil war.

A Marine expeditionary force of a few thousand will be withdrawn later this month, he said, with confidence that the turnover of authority that he envisions nationwide in Iraq is taking place in Anbar province.

“That’s what thickens our capabilities and the capabilities of the Iraqi security forces,’’ Petraeus said.

Petraeus also was asked about his reply to a senator’s question about whether the U.S. military mission in Iraq is making the United States safer – “I don’t know,’’ Petraeus had replied at the Senate hearing.

“What I was trying to do yesterday was avoid being more than the MNF-I (Multinational Forces-Iraq) commander,’’ Petraeus said. “I’m not the National Security Adviser, don’t write the national security strategy…’’ But, having said that, he added today: “Achieving our national interests in Iraq, however, is very important. Those interests do link to the overall strategy of our country…. And do make our country safer.’’

Petraeus was asked if the U.S. military commitment to Iraq is “open-ended,’’ as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Cal.) complained about the plan which Petraeus has outlined yesterday outside the White House.

“I did not say that there is an open-ended commitment… What I outlined is recommendations that will take us to mid-July,’’ said Petraeus, adding that “how gradual or rapid’’ the drawdown is beyond that “depends on conditions… That’s what any responsible military commander – if you were in my shoes, I think you would recommend the same thing.’’

They were asked about retired Marine Gen. James Jones’ assessment that it will take the Iraqis at least 12 to 18 months before their security forces can take full responsibility – and if the U.S. should expect to see more than 100,000 of its own forces in Iraq for at least five more years.

“I wouldn’t hazard a guess on that,’’ Petraeus said. “It is very difficult to project out much beyond the horizon… of mid-July next year.’’

Questions remain about how the Iraqi military is deployed – whether with bases or in expeditionary forces, he said, and the uncertainties involve logistical matters as mundane as warehousing of supplies.

“It’s an enormous challenge when you are literally starting it up from scratch,’’ Petraeus said. “Having said that, there are numerous places in the country, entire provinces, that are under Iraqi control.’’