The renewed war debate: Bottom line, drawdown: The Swamp
The Swamp
Posted September 10, 2007 6:53 AM
The Swamp

by Mark Silva

It's not so much the long-awaited testimony ot Gen. David Petraeus today and tomorrow that will shape the course of the war, but rather the debate that follows.

President Bush has repeatedly hinted that once Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker make their cases in congressional hearings --- they are expected to say the current troop "surge" is making Iraq safer -- the president may be able to discuss bringing some troops home.

Planning a national address this week, Bush has promised to "lay out a vision for future involvement in Iraq" that the public "and their elected leaders of both parties can support."

Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.), chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, said some Republicans are already moving in that direction and suggested that the negotiations will be mostly over the speed of the de-escalation.

"They may say 5,000, we may say 25,000; they may say X date, we may say Y date," Emanuel said. "But those are details."

He added, "I won't be surprised if [the withdrawal] doesn't start in 2007, but I think it is going to start to happen in short order."

See the story in the Tribune:

The bottom line: Drawdown
Petraeus report likely to trigger maneuvering

By Mark Silva
Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON -- For all the drama surrounding the testimony that military and diplomatic leaders will deliver to Congress this week about the war in Iraq, the real show will play out afterward, as the White House and Democratic congressional leaders vie for control over when the U.S. will start scaling back its forces there.

President Bush has repeatedly hinted that once Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker make their cases in congressional hearings Monday and Tuesday -- they are expected to say the current troop "surge" is making Iraq safer -- the president may be able to discuss bringing some troops home.

Planning a national address this week, Bush has promised to "lay out a vision for future involvement in Iraq" that the public "and their elected leaders of both parties can support."

Democratic leaders, supported by some military experts, insist that because of the strains on the military from the escalation of forces and the extended deployments of soldiers and Marines, some scale-back is inevitable by spring. Democrats also say that, for all the resistance that Republican leaders are showing to a timeline for withdrawal at this stage, the closer they get to the elections of November 2008, the happier they will be to see a reduced American presence in Iraq.

With Congress facing a rush of reports this month reflecting mixed progress in Iraq's bid to gain control over its security -- and even less movement toward political reconciliation -- Democratic leaders plan to push for a firm withdrawal timeline.

Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.), chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, said some Republicans are already moving in that direction and suggested that the negotiations will be mostly over the speed of the de-escalation.

"They may say 5,000, we may say 25,000; they may say X date, we may say Y date," Emanuel said. "But those are details."

He added, "I won't be surprised if [the withdrawal] doesn't start in 2007, but I think it is going to start to happen in short order."

Bush and his supporters have long resisted a withdrawal timeline, saying that would set a "surrender date" and encourage the insurgents to hold out.

But last week, the president, citing recent meetings with Petraeus and Crocker in Iraq, told reporters with him in Iraq's Anbar province that he can envision a smaller force there.

"They told me that if ... security conditions still improve the way they have been improving ... we may be able to provide the same security with fewer troops," Bush said.

Congress set a deadline of Sept. 15 to receive Petraeus' report, prompting a spate of other evaluations on progress in Iraq, some official and some not. But the judgment of Petraeus and Crocker is attracting the most attention.

Taking politics into account

In the end, Congress is likely to produce a compromise that marries the political and military realities in Iraq with the politics of an unpopular war at home.

Some lawmakers, for example, are promoting a bill to implement the recommendations of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group, which said U.S. combat forces should start to withdraw early next year and serve primarily as training and support for Iraqi forces. Others suggest linking any continued war funding to a 15-month cap on individual troop deployments, effectively forcing the military to scale back in the spring.

Some analysts note that the Sept. 15 deadline is artificial, unmoored to any particular development in Iraq. Conditions will continue to evolve after that date, said Anthony Cordesman, senior fellow and military expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"The truth is that Sept. 15 is going to come and go," he said. "And it's going to be Sept. 20 and beyond, and a lot of the problems in the surge are going to become more apparent, and the lack of political reconciliation."

The other key date, perhaps, is Nov. 4, 2008 -- Election Day in the United States. As that date approaches, many Democrats believe Republicans will face growing pressure to support a significant troop withdrawal.

Measuring progress

The security gains since the U.S. boosted its presence in Iraq by nearly 30,000 troops to 160,000 this year vary by region, experts say. But even the administration, which insists the military improvement has been significant, acknowledges little progress in restoring political stability in Iraq. Iraqi leaders have failed to reconcile warring religious factions inside police forces, as well as on the streets.

Retired Marine Gen. James Jones, who led an independent commission of military and police leaders examining the situation in Iraq, told the Senate Armed Services Committee last week that while the Iraqi military has shown "real progress" in building up its forces, "there is evidence of sectarian partisanship, indications of corruption and of a failed bureaucracy" in the Interior Ministry that oversees Iraq's 230,000 police officers. And, he said, the national police force is so sectarian and corrupt that it should be disbanded.

The U.S. Government Accountability Office reported recently that Iraq had failed to reach most of the 18 milestones set by Congress.

"I've worked in administrations long enough to know that every administration wants to put its best foot forward," said Rand Beers, who has served on the National Security Councils of President Bush and his father as well as President Bill Clinton. "The reality in Iraq today ... is a very violent society."

Others say such assessments are overly bleak.

"There are a lot of people who are armchair generals, who reside here in the air-conditioned comfort of Washington, D.C., who somehow don't trust the judgment" of commanders on the ground, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said last week.

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Comments

"There are a lot of people who are armchair generals, who reside here in the air-conditioned comfort of Washington, D.C., who somehow don't trust the judgment" of commanders on the ground,..."

Well golly gee, St. McCain, seeing as how they've been consistently wrong for 4 long years, why exactly should we suddenly start believing them now?


Democrats' war strategy: ADVANCE TO THE REAR. Old adage: "You can't identify a fool until he opens his mouth." Talk about chickenhawks. They have a "D" in back of their names. They sure are chicken-something. Thank goodness some real Democrats -- FDR and Truman -- didn't think the same way as the current group of losers.


This is interesting, but WHAT does it have to do with Obama?


We have, in the past, succeeded in taking over a country. It just takes lots of time. The Colonists (and their descendants), for example, took the country over from the native Americans. Surely, if we pour enough money and death into the Iraq, we can do it. Why give up when success may be just one century away? On the radio yesterday, a young man was complaining that the liberals want to give the insurgents a victory by leaving. I think he has the answer. We need to wait until the insurgents want us to stay and then leave. Imagine how badly the insurgents would feel then.


Unfortunately, Bernard, the current Democratic party bears little resemblance to the days of FDR and Truman. To the Loony Lefties who control the Democratic party, they'd be calling FDR and Truman and JFK, for that matter, the same names they call Lieberman.


As the Washington Post points out today, Democrats have not been able to bring about a single change in Bush's war strategy.

Emmanuel is trying to draw attention from the Dems' massive failure to change course on the war, despite all that hype after the 2006 election.

In fact, other than the minimum wage increase, Dems haven't done much at all since 2006 except talk a lot. We may well see a resurgence of Republicans, in 2008, with voters in general disgusted by the
ineptitude of Harry and Nancy. If we are going to have a war forever, might as well have a Republican run it. A Republican is less likely to pal around
with sleazy dictators (Obama) and who wants Bill Clinton back in the White House, whatever role he is pretending to play.

Rahm sounds like he's getting nervous. He should be.

And I'm not even a Republican. I'm just totally disgusted by the Dems failure to get the government, including a highly unpopular Prez, to stop spending trillions of our money in Iraq. They are utterly useless.


There is a reality here that both parties recognize.

No matter what happens in Iraq, good, bad or indifferent, we MUST start drawing down our troop levels in the spring, or there will have to be a further extension of the length of tours of duty for units in Iraq. There are no other otions.

Both the US and the Iraqis admit that the Iraqi armed forces will not be ready to take over security duties at that time.

The military has no enthusiasum for a further extension of tours of duty in Iraq. Even keeping tours at the current 15 months is stretching the military beyond the limits that the Generals would like.

"Today's Army is out of balance. We're consumed with meeting the current demands and we're unable to provide ready forces as rapidly as we would like for other contingencies; nor are we able to provide an acceptable tempo of deployments to sustain our Soldiers and Families for the long haul.

This is a temporary state and one we must pass through quickly if we're going to preserve and sustain our all-volunteer force and restore strategic depth."

Army Chief of Staff Gen. George W. Casey Jr.

August 15, 2007.

We've nearly reached the limits of outr current military capabilities. The Iraqi's have not taken the opportunity to step up.

Whether or not Bush acknowledges it, despite the best efforts of our troops, the surge will not bring about a stable Iraq. The surge will end in the spring, or our military will be stressed to a point that it cannot meet all of it's commitments. The killing will go on.


This whole thing is going to end up being a big nothing (just like the "bipartisan Iraq commision". It is going to be more of the same... How many different ways can you say "Stay the course"?

The debate should not be focused on whether or not we are achieving our goals on executing the existing strategy.

We should be talking about whether or not we have the right strateguy to begin with.

Rather than focusing on "making Iraq safer" shouldn't we be focusing on the transition of power to Iraq?


A new poll in the New York Times today reports: "Americans trust military commanders far more (68%)than the Bush administration or Congress to bring the war in Iraq to a successful end, and while most favor a withdrawal of American troops beginning next year, they suggested they were open to doing so at a measured pace, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll." Message to Congress: BUTT OUT! To the Administration, give Petraeus and his forces the go-ahead to proceed with the excellent job they're doing.


Jonh D do you ever post an actual substantive argument? I mean I understand that that's difficult given the absurd corner that the modern GOP is backed into. But don't you think it would be better to actually attempt to resolve issues and pursue what's best for everyone?


Republican's war strategy: Sacrifice as many American and civilain lives as necessary to blame disasterous aftermath on Democrats who will win in 08. They know they have screwed up like NEVER before. This is the best plan they can come up with. It is so sick and cowardly and politically offensive they have lost a generation of Republicans who see reality. There is no good way out, but staying ensures death and fuel to the growing anti-American sentiment in the region. It is a fools mission and the GOP has become a ship of fools!


I need more money!! I mean...the surge needs more time!!


Joe, does the truth hurt? The fact is you and your ilk on the Left would be denigrating the thoughts of FDR, Truman and JFK today just as you have Joe Lieberman and any other Democratic who doesn't tow the Far Left line.


"These Republican leaders have not been content with attacks on me, or my wife, or on my sons. No, not content with that, they now include my little dog, Fala. Well, of course, I don't resent attacks, and my family doesn't resent attacks, but Fala does resent them. You know, Fala is Scotch, and being a Scottie, as soon as he learned that the Republican fiction writers in Congress and out had concocted a story that I had left him behind on the Aleutian Islands and had sent a destroyer back to find him--at a cost to the taxpayers of two or three, or eight or twenty million dollars--his Scotch soul was furious. He has not been the same dog since. I am accustomed to hearing malicious falsehoods about myself--such as that old, worm-eaten chestnut that I have represented my self as indispensable. But I think I have a right to resent, to object to libelous statements about my dog."--FDR Sept. 23, 1944,


"ABOVE AND BEYOND ALL REPORTS GIVEN"

What's the Plan?

What's going to change between now and October, November, December?

What's the Plan?

Continued A work in Progress?

Or We'll we all get to watch the next OSAMA BIN LADEN MADE FOR MOVIE III CALLED "BUSH KNEW."

SO WITH THAT IN MIND, Has anyone seen CONDI RICE, Secretary of State! You know the part of the Executive Branch that briefed the American People on the Diplomatic, I said the DIPLOMATIC progress in Iraq or the REGION AS A WHOLE?

I think next week its all about "BUSH KNEW"

IMPEACHMENT OR CENSORSHIP

WILL Someone Please Step up to the Plate in the honor of ONE DEAD SOLDIER, ONE DEAD CIVILLIAN CONTACTOR and ONE DEAD IRAQI and DIPLOMATICALLY END THE OCCUPATION OF THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT, AND ITS ARMY. SIR!


This is a very good article describing the difficulties and realities we face in Iraq. It's long, but it's honest and comprehensive. This is the kind of discussion we're all going to need to have, at some point, if we desire to move beyond the blame game and the destructive sloganeering. Please read this article--it makes you pause, it makes you think.


oh NO!!

Roger MORRIS's all caps key IS malFUNctioning, now it's goINg on and off arbitrarILY!


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