by Mark Silva, and updated
President Bush will attach a theme to the war policy and withdrawal of tens of thousands of troops from Iraq that he explains to a national television audience tonight from the Oval Office: “Return on Success’’
The president will embrace the recommendations of Gen. David Petraeus, the White House finally acknowledged today after days of speculation. That means a drawdown of U.S. forces in Iraq to roughly their “pre-surge’’ levels by the summer of 2008.
Initially, that means 2,200 Marines will return home this month, according to a senior administration official. They will be followed by an Army brigade later this year – “meaning … by Christmas, 5,700 troops coming home, without being replaced.’’
By the summer of 2008, five Army brigades, a Marine expeditionary unit and a Marine battalion will be withdrawn, the White House says. That amounts to roughly 18,000 troops -- though combat brigades are supported by many units, making it impossible for the White House or Defense Department to say today, specifically, how many will come home by next summer.
“After consulting with the joints chiefs of staff’’ and with congressional leaders, the senior administraton official said today, “the president has concluded that he is going to accept the recommendations of the general and ambassador’’ to Iraq, Ryan Crocker.
“The more we succeed, the more troops we can bring home from Iraq,’’ the official said. "The president calls this policy, ‘Return on Success.’’’
Ultimately, the U.S. military force in Iraq will be reduced from 20 brigades to 15 brigades by mid-July 2008 – conditions in Iraq permitting. There are 169,000 stationed in Iraq today, which could mean a return to nearly the level of roughly 130,000 troops deployed in Iraq before the president announced a “surge’’ in forces in Baghdad and the western Anbar province in January.
The White House, however, says it cannot set a firm figure on the numbers of troops that will be withdrawn because they will involve not only combat but also supporting forces.
What will be withdrawn by the summer of 2008: Five Army brigades (typically about 3,500 soldiders in each), a Marine expeditionary unit (typically 2,500 Marines) and two Marine battalions (usually about 600 Marines each.) A Defense Department official said today that the DoD cannot specify today how many fewer support people will be needed as a result of that redeployment of Iraq.
All of this is based on the premise that their withdrawal will not jeopardize security in Iraq.
“It is a gradual change in mission based on conditions,’’ another administration official said today, as the White House briefed reporters about the speech that Bush will deliver at 9 pm EDT from the Oval Office. “The president is very clear that we want to rely on conditions on the ground, not the calendar.’’
As forces are withdrawn, the U.S. mission also is shifting from a leading role in the security of Iraq to a supporting role.
“You will see U.S. troops doing less of the leading in combat patrols… and more and more enabling the Iraqis to do it themselves,’’ the second official said. “Before the mission was very enemy-focused, follow him wherever he goes… It was not the sort of neighborhood protection that has been the policy since January… It is now focused on population-security.
“Unless we’re going to be in Iraq forever, ultimately Iraq belongs to Iraqis,’’ the second official said.
Asked about prospects for U.S. force deployments beyond the summer of 2008, the official said the U.S. can expect to have “a long-term, bilateral… relationship with Iraq.’’
Petraeus will make “a fresh assessment’’ of the situation in March, the White House says, to determine what if any drawdown can be made beyond mid-July of 2008.
Asked about congressional leaders criticizing the White House for making an “open-ended commitment’’ of troops, the administration argues that it is preparing the stage for the next administration, with hopes of “long-term’’ security in Iraq.
“What the president has said is that, obviously, he wants to get our position in Iraq into a good place for the next president to come in,’’ the first official said. “I do think the public has seen tangible signs of success in Iraq through the summer… I think also the American people have seen consistent calls for the president to bring troops home from Iraq based on political dynamics.
“The president has steadfastly resisted that, and said, ‘I am going to base decisions relative to conditions on the ground,’’’ the official said. “We do want to see the Iraqis meet the benchmarks they agreed to.’’ The White House must report to Congress by Saturday on Iraq’s progress in meeting 18 benchmarks – with the General Accountability Office already having reported that Iraqi leaders have failed to meet most of the 18 set as a condition for continued congressional funding of the war in Iraq.
“There are other tangible signs of progress that matter,’’ the first senior administration official said today. “It also matters to you if your children can cross the street, and if they can go to school and if they can to market… That is happening in Anbar.’’
“We’re not moving the goal-post,’’ the official said, with the White House insisting that both senior officials not be identified by name. “The benchmarks are important. We want them to be met. However, they are not the only signs of progress and the only things to measure.’’
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Comments
Republican knuckledragger John Boehner tells the Snowman on CNN that our troop deaths in Iraq are a "small price" to pay for victory.
This is a fine example of why I hate todays version of the Republican Party,... unfrickin' believable, I can't believe that he actually said this:
BLITZER: How much longer will U.S. taxpayers have to shell out $2 billion a week or $3 billion a week as some now are suggesting the cost is going to endure? The loss in blood, the Americans who are killed every month, how much longer do you think this commitment, this military commitment is going to require?
BOEHNER: I think General Petraeus outlined it pretty clearly. We’re making success. We need to firm up those successes. We need to continue our effort here because, Wolf, long term, the investment that we’re making today will be a small price if we’re able to stop al Qaeda here, if we’re able to stabilize the Middle East, it’s not only going to be a small price for the near future, but think about the future for our kids and their kids.
Posted by: John E | September 13, 2007 3:40 PM
Do we get new talking points tonight? Yippee! I'm so happy!
Seriously, does anyone care what Bush says? It doesn't mean anything, it's just more blah-blah-blah that leads us nowhere.
And "Return on Success?" Really? That is the best they can do? What is he going to return to again? What, he's gonna put on his flight suit, strap on his cod piece, and fly out to an aircraft carrier anchored a couple miles from California?
Oh, hey, maybe he'll give us another photo op too! You know, on the aircraft carrier, standing under a banner that reads "Return on Success." Nothing beats a three word talking point when paired with a photo op geared towards third graders, fox news, and wingnuts...
Let the circus begin.
Posted by: nisleib | September 13, 2007 3:54 PM
Don't we have to stand down as they stand up, not cut and run, and stay the course so the enemy will fight us there and not here, and then, and only then, we can adapt to win before we can realize any sort of return on success , or is my thinking too status quo ante for a declaration of mission accomplished ?
Just asking.
Posted by: johnf | September 13, 2007 5:00 PM
Bush knew Saddam had no weapons of mass destruction
http://www.salon.com/opinion/blumenthal/2007/09/06/bush_wmd/?source=whitelist
Posted by: Walter | September 13, 2007 5:01 PM
Return on Success? Is there no level of stupidity too low for the Cheneybush Regime?
Posted by: snalg | September 13, 2007 5:14 PM
My understanding is Bush is going to announce a long term commitment of troops in Iraq tonight.
Posted by: Cheryl | September 13, 2007 5:41 PM
Walter, once again, Bob Woodward reported that George Tenet told Bush the intelligence that Iraq had WMDs was "a slam dunk."
Better than Sydney Blumenthal's lies, here is a link that tells the truth and includes Bob Woodward's reporting in his book, "The Case."
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=ZDliNzNmNjIwNmQxMjM2ZjM2MzYyNWFiYzUyZjgxYTA=
Second, you Dumb Dumb Lefties clearly do not understand the comment "return on success."
The 9/11 attacks killed 3,000 Americans and cost the U.S. economy upwards of $1 trillion, which does not even include the rebuilding costs now taking place there. The rebuilding of where the Towers once stood, more than likely will exceed $1 trillion.
So, the return on success by defeating Al Qaeda and formulating free, democratic governments in the Middle East will reap rewards for generations to come.
By your folks reasoning, then it made no sense and there was no return on success or investment in WWII, WWI, Civil Warm etc., etc.
Posted by: John D | September 13, 2007 5:45 PM
I don't care how much spin, sugar, salt, pepper they put on the report.
Bottom line, the war was/is a FAILURE. I can't believe how many people still drink the koolaid.
Bring our troops home..NOW...or re-allocate and find Osama....
And yes, I was close to voting republican at one time....
Posted by: concerned | September 13, 2007 5:59 PM
"So, the return on success by defeating Al Qaeda and formulating free, democratic governments in the Middle East will reap rewards for generations to come."
Shiites & Sunnis are only interested in destroying each other. Maybe Bush can explain how democracy is going to be the magic bullet that's going to solve this.
Just because Americans think democracy is a cure-all for society doesn't mean the rest the world will embrace it.
Posted by: RomanB | September 13, 2007 6:16 PM
"HE'S SO NICE, HE'S SO KIND"
Yet a new three word metaphor for "FAILURE, PHONY SUCCESS, FOOLED AGAIN, FOOLED TWICE AND YES YOU CAN BE FOOLED AGAIN AND AGAIN.
G Whiz Gomer, have you seen the Admiral? Admiral Fallon, Petreaus boss. You know the Admiral ahead of CENTCOM or The Big Military Cheese in Iraq. Yes, that guy. Why no I haven't but I'm looking forward to it.
People, People, Petreaus has a boss, Petreaus was not under oath, and Admiral Fallon has a total different perspective on the SURGE.
Bush is going to sell us some more of the Boy who Cried Wolf, as Admiral Fallon will not be the Little Gingerbread Man and carry him and his war across the sea.
Five (5) Big 5 years later and here stands Ol Great One of them all. Big Poppy George Bush selling America Poppy residuals as a Return on Success.
Heroin Dealers are Praising George Bush big time tonight. BIG POPPY, BIG POPPY, BIG POPPY. BIG POPPY.
IMPEACHMENT IS ON HIS MIND. KUM BAI YA, KUM BAI YA come on Congress, sing with me, KUM BAI YA, SEE AMERICA RUN!
Posted by: Roger Morris | September 13, 2007 6:27 PM
Once again, leave it to John D to spew the Fox News Nuts storyline. Never mind that Iraq had nothing whatsoever to do with 9/11. But like Bush and the RNC, let's not let facts get in the way of their spin.
Posted by: Gibster | September 13, 2007 6:27 PM
what does iraq have to do with 9/11? didn't the 9-11 commission make it clear that 9/11 was carried out mainly by Saudis?
so we did we go into Iraq?
what happened to the search for BinLaden? wasn't he the mastermind behind 9/11, not Saddam Hussein.
looks like the usual GOP bait & switch routine again...
Posted by: inedal | September 13, 2007 6:28 PM
By your folks reasoning, then it made no sense and there was no return on success or investment in WWII, WWI, Civil Warm etc., etc.
Posted by: John D | September 13, 2007 5:45 PM
I see Lil Johnny Highschool Dropout is still buying into the "Saddam had WMD's" lie the Republicant Party sold us on before the Iraq inasion.
stu·pid (stpd, sty-)
adj. stu·pid·er, stu·pid·est
1. Slow to learn or understand; obtuse.
2. Tending to make poor decisions or careless mistakes.
3. Marked by a lack of intelligence or care; foolish or careless: a stupid mistake.
4. Dazed, stunned, or stupefied.
5. Pointless; worthless: a stupid job.
Look up "stupid" in the dictionary and you'll also find a big, grinning, toothless picture of Lil Johnny D.
Posted by: John E | September 13, 2007 6:31 PM
"Return on Success"... another completely disposable public relations slogan just like, "Stay the Course", "Adapt to Win" and of course, "Mission Accomplished".
And of course, each slogan comes personally wrapped in an American flag.
Like the fellow above said, this kind of thing aimed towards third graders, fox news viewers, and wingnuts.
Posted by: David | September 13, 2007 6:43 PM
But wait for it! Rupert Murdock reports Bush got a 5% bump in his ratings because of the Betrayus report! Does anyone know of anyone else who "changed their mind" because of the Betrayus report? Me either.
Posted by: Looken | September 13, 2007 6:54 PM
This is a great idea.
How about we tell everyone about how great our country is and say "We don't need no edumacation," and get smacked in the face once we withdraw our troops from Iraq.
Do the words "Political Captiol" mean anything to Bush? Obviously not, because in the direction he's going, we aren't gonna get out of this hell for a long long time.
Posted by: Nick B | September 13, 2007 7:41 PM
Well, well, well.....after all the debate and discussion, our esteemed (NOT) presidork (er, president) STILL thinks that our presence in Iraq has been a success. Figures. You know, there are times when I forget why I didn't vote for him either time; and he's kind enough (or DUMB enough) to remind me repeatedly as to my reasons why. Thanks Bush, you actually accomplished SOMETHING in office, you managed to get about 90% of the whole country to hate you. Why don't you try and save what's left of your tattered reputation and bring ALL of our men and women home WHERE THEY BELONG.
Posted by: Kat | September 13, 2007 8:16 PM
Next September we will have more than 100,000 troops in Iraq. We are going back in the next few months to the 130,000 troops we had when the "surge" started. You call this success? We have spent more lives, more the Iraq problem on to the wounded, more crippled lives, and more money to finance more time. All this just so Bush can push next administration. He has no honor.
Posted by: c. perry | September 13, 2007 9:07 PM
After hearing the President's speech, I acknowledge that he may have been putting the best boot forward concerning the magnitude and significance of recent ostensible successes in Iraq.
Still, I believe that there is now one boot better than the other, and one best foot that can be put forward, and this is a step in the right direction. Can we still win in Iraq?
Well, as a blog n roller, of course my answer is contained in an original blog n roll Dr BLTune.
But before I unveil the new song, I want to urge those on the far right and those on the far left, not to argue, fuss and fight like you've done in the past over whether this is left-leaning satire, or a right-wing jingoistic jingle. Take it for what it is. Your interpretation, not my intentions are what's really important.
Let's End the War (By Winning it)
Dr BLT copyright 2007
http://www.drblt.net/music/LetsWIN2C.mp3
Posted by: Dr BLT | September 17, 2007 10:05 AM