by Matthew Hay Brown

It happened in the thick of the Great Depression, and again while Americans were held hostage in Iran. Next year, Sen. Charles E. Schumer says, America could see another "seminal election" – and one that he hopes will usher in a new era of Democratic dominance in Washington.

"They occur about once a generation," Schumer said today. "They change the tectonic plates of politics and they create a generation for one-party governance. Nineteen Thirty-Two, Roosevelt did it. In 1980, Ronald Reagan did it. And we’re about at the tail end of the Ronald Reagan era, where his ideas – fresh, and even as a Demcorat, I’d say many of them needed at the time – have just lost steam, lost resonance, and people are ready."

Schumer, who chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, and Rep. Chris Van Hollen, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, met with reporters today to talk about the 2008 elections for the Senate and House, a little more than a year before voters head to the polls.

by David Lerman

Virginia Sen. John Warner was admitted to Inova Fairfax Hospital today after a scheduled appointment revealed he had a ``low-grade infection" from surgery two weeks ago in his leg.

Warner, 80, ``is undergoing observation and such treatment as may be required," his office said in a statement. ``Doctors expect the senator to fully recover and return as early as next week to his regular work schedule in the United States Senate."

The veteran Republican lawmaker, who plans to retire at the end of his term next year, was hospitalized earlier this month after suffering from an irregular heartbeat. He underwent a non-surgical procedure known as ablation therapy.

by Naftali Bendavid

Halloween is here--that fun-filled time of adorable costumes, fanciful pumpin carvings, boatloads of candy--and juvenile Halloween references from political operatives.

Every year we're treated to comments like, "Halloween may be spooky, but what's really scary is Candidate X's position on Social Security." It's the political world at its most hackneyed.

This year is no different. Take a statement today from the Senate Democratic leadership. "As children across America go out trick or treating tonight for Halloween," it declares, "the Bush administration's policies should scare them more than ghosts and witches."

Yes, kids across America will no doubt be thinking not about how many Snickers bars and M&M bags they can score, but the merits of increasing the staffing of the Consumer Product Safety Commission.

Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.), chairman of the House Democratic Caucus used the holiday to address the State Children's Health Insurance Program. "At 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, President Bush is having what he calls SCHIP Halloween--it's all trick, no treat," Emanuel said.

Republicans are seizing on Halloween references with equal zest. The Illinois GOP yesterday went after Sen. Dick Durbin's position on immigration with a tortured image. "Tomorrow American communities will decide who has the scariest costume for Halloween," it said. "Another that could easily be given amongst the scary ghosts and goblins is the award for the scariest position in America. Hands down, Dick Durbin should claim the prize." Yes, that's easy to imagine--a contest in small towns across the country for the scariest policy position. Sounds fun.

Then there's the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which attacked Democrat Andrew Rice, who is challenging Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.) in the upcoming election. "When Andrew Rice dresses up as an extremist liberal, it isn't just for Halloween," the Republicans observed. That resonates, because "extremist liberal" costumes are flying off the shelves in stores across America.

D.C. residents Nell Schaffer and Joanna London in hippo costumes protest outside an office building Sen. John McCain visited, Oct. 31, 2007.

by Frank James

Because it's Halloween, you expect to see people dressed up in costumes.

But because it's Washington, a costume isn't necessarily a costume, but can be a political statement as well.

That was the case with the people who were dressed up as hippopotamuses outside the Kaiser Foundation offices several blocks from the White House today.

They were there with their signs protesting Sen. John McCain, (R-Ariz.,) the Republican presidential candidate, who was visiting the Kaiser building.

Shouting "Hippos follow hypocrites," they were members of DC Vote who were protesting McCain's opposition to Senate legislation that would give residents in the nation's capital voting representaion in Congress. Their position is that McCain is a hypocrite since he supports bringing democracy to Iraq but has helped to stall the DC voting rights bill in the Senate.

The DC Vote people have protested against McCain at other of his appearances. But today the costumes met their moment, Halloween, so the protesters kind of blended with the crowd more than they usually do, like with the bicycle courier wearing the cow outfit.

D.C. resident Eli Zigas in hippo outfit explains protest to a cow-clad bike courier.

(photos provided by DC Vote.)

by Mark Silva

"This is Ed.''

That's how Ed Schafer liked to answer the phone in the governor's office in North Dakota. It wasn't a very big office -- the staff photo fit on a page of the state Web-site.

It's not a very big state either -- with fewer people counted by the U.S. Census there in 2000 than were counted in 1900. We got a chance to know it, and to love it, during the aftermath of the Red River Flood in 1997, when the river overflowed the levees and deluged the city, followed by fire that decimated a good piece of downtown, including the newspaper -- the company formerly known as Knight Ridder summoned reinforcements to staff the stricken paper.

And it was there, dealing with the governor's office, that we first met "Ed.''

Schafer probably won't be answering his own phone at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, where President Bush hopes to station him as secretary for the president's remaining year and then some in office. The far-flung agency counts more than 100,000 employees -- a little more than one-sixth the number of people who live in the state of North Dakota.

(Schafer and Bush. AP Photo b by Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

by William Neikirk
Video by Sabrina Fang

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter of one percent today, its second straight reduction since a credit crunch threatened severe harm to the economy this summer.

The central bank's decision to reduce its benchmark interest rate to 4.5 percent met financial market expectations. But it came as a government report showed today that the economy posted a strong 3.9 percent growth rate in the third quarter.

The Fed said it acted to prevent a slowing of economic growth in the months head, "partly reflecting the intensification of the housing correction."

It was a strong pre-emptive strike against a future slowing of growth and a possible recession.

by Frank James

by Mark Silva

President Bush has promised to hold his analysis of the 2008 presidential campaign, but he waded straight into it today.

With a broadside against the Democratic Congress and its “incremental'' plans for “federalizing'' health insurance, Bush today reminded his audience that Congress rejected a national insurance plan in 1994 – that would be the plan that then-First Lady Hillary Clinton promoted, ultimately defeated by the insurance lobby.

“We've tried, by the way, here in Washington to have a... major effort, put the federal government square in the center of health care in 1994, and the legislation didn't pass,'' the president said in a speech today to the Grocery Manufacturers Association.

“I believe many of the Democrats in Congress who supported that legislation have learned from the experience,'' Bush said. “So instead of pushing to federalize health care all at once, they're pushing for the same goal through a series of incremental steps. With each step, they want to bring America closer to a nationalized system where the government dictates the medical coverage for every citizen.''

The target in question at the moment is the congressional attempt to expand eligibility for lower- and middle-income children under the State Children's Health Insurance Program. Bush has vetoed a $35 billion bill which Democrats maintained could offer coverage to an additional 3.8 million children beyond the 6.6 million covered.

But the bigger target is Clinton, the senator from New York and candidate for president whom Republicans are attempting to portray as a Democrat whom the nation cannot afford. It matters little that Clinton is not proposing nationalized health insurance in her campaign. Private enterprise is the way to go in medicine, the president maintains, saying: “We got good docs.''

Rep. Dennis Kucinich amuses Sen. Barack Obama during the presidential debate at Drexel University in Philadelphia (Photo by Stan Honda/AFP/Getty Images)

by Mark Silva

A faithful reader of The Swamp found some irony and amusement in two headlines that appeared here yesterday: "Kucinich calls Bush's mental health into question'' and "Kucinich: 'I did' see a UFO.''

Kucinch, a congressman from Ohio, was asked during last night's debate of the Democratic candidates for president if he had seen a UFO.

The "serious" question was prompted by actress Shirley MacLaine's new book, in which she writes that Kucinich had spotted a UFO over her home in Washington state and "found the encounter extremely moving... It was a triangular craft silent and hovering,'' she wrote, and Kucinich "felt a connection'' in his heart and "heard direction'' in his mind.

"I did,''' Kucinich said to the question of whether he had seen a UFO.

As for "the rest of the account,'' he said, "I didn't.

"It's unidentified. I saw something,'' he said. "Also, you have to keep in mind that more -- that Jimmy Carter saw a UFO -- and also that more people in this country have seen UFOs than, I think, approve of George Bush's presidency.''

Moderator Tim Russert reminded the candidate that polls show just 14 percent of Americans say they have seen UFOs -- (about half the number that approve of the president's job approval in most recent polling.)

Earlier in the day, Kucinich had told the editors of the Philadelphia Inquirer that Bush's recent comments about World War III -- that those who are interested in averting it also should be interested in keeping nuclear weapons out of Iran -- call his mental health into question.

You cannot be a president of the United States who's wanton in his expression of violence," Kucinich said. "There's a lot of people who need care. He might be one of them. If there isn't something wrong with him, then there's something wrong with us. This, to me, is a very serious question."

Russert said the UFO question was serious, too. See the answer:

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton at the presidential candidates debate in Philadelphia. Photo by Stan Honda//AFP/Getty Images)

By Mark Silva

A potentially dangerous new story-line could be developing in the campaign of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York for the White House: Multiple-choice answers to the same difficult question.

Clinton already suffers from a certain “if I had known then what I know now'' syndrome over the war in Iraq – she voted along with an overwhelming majority of senators to authorize military force in Iraq, but now says she opposes the war. She promises to end it, if elected president, but will not commit to when all the U.S. troops deployed there will come home.

Clinton also has voted for a resolution on Iran supported by an overwhelming majority of senators which critics call a predicate to war, but she maintains that she is in no “rush to war'' in Iran. And last night, during a Democratic debate, she refused to pledge that Iran will not acquire nuclear weapons during her presidency – her leading rivals also demurred.

But it was a question about driver's licenses for “undocumented workers'' – the politically neutral terminology for “illegal aliens'' which she prefers – that created the most trouble for Clinton during last night's two-hour debate of the Democrats staged in Philadelphia. Her leading rivals pounced on Clinton for her conflicting answers – she supports New York's plan but says it's not the best idea -- and the GOP is pouncing today.

Clinton complained that she is a victim of the “gotcha'' on this controveral question. She may well be right – her rivals seized on a rare debate flub for the candidate who has proven toughest in Democratic encounters. And the GOP today is calling it “Hillary's Debate Dodgeball.''

New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer has proposed giving driver's licenses to illegal immigrants, NBC moderator Tim Russert reminded Clinton. “You told the Nashua, N.H., editorial board it makes a lot of sense,'' he said. “Why does it make a lot of sense to give an illegal immigrant a driver's license? ''

“ Well, what Gov. Spitzer is trying to do is fill the vacuum left by the failure of this administration to bring about comprehensive immigration reform,'' she said. “We know in New York we have several million at any one time who are in New York illegally. They are undocumented workers.

“They are driving on our roads,'' she said. “The possibility of them having an accident that harms themselves or others is just a matter of the odds. It's probability. So what Gov. Spitzer is trying to do is to fill the vacuum.

by Doyle McManus

Between now and Jan. 3, 2008, when voters in Iowa hold their caucuses for the first real test of this presidential campaign, you will see dozens of public opinion polls purporting to say who’s winning the race. Ignore them.

More precisely, do your best to look beyond the part about who’s winning. That’s the part we all like to hear about, of course--the horse race. But one of the open secrets of political reporting is that the predictive value of opinion polls, even the well-crafted Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll that we publish here, is weak at this stage of the game.

The poll we published last week, for example, had a sample of more than 1200, larger than most polls, so its findings should be pretty reliable. It showed Sen. Hillary Clinton way ahead in the Democratic field and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani leading among Republicans (with former Sen. Fred Thompson second). But there are three reasons not to take those findings too seriously.

by Christi Parsons
Video by Sabrina Fang

PHILADEPHIA--There was another presidential debate going on last night and, as is usually the case at these events, one full block near the site here was filled with supporters waving signs and chanting for several hours running up to the start.

Ordinarily, the audience for that scene is mainly made up of the other chanters, as well as the innocent passersby and the television cameras.

But at last night's pre-game pep rally before the Democratic debate, the listeners also included a Temple University professor who wandered through the crowds with a notebook.

"This one is very interesting," said Prof. Sue Wells, of the Temple English department. She stood behind a crowd of Barack Obama supporters shouting an ecstatic "Oh, oh, oh, Ohh-bama," and dispassionately diagrammed the chant in her spiral book.

"It's unique to their candidate," she said, "and it's also got a little extra rhythm that you don't hear in most group chanting."

Just up the way, Joe Biden's backers had chosen a more four square chant for, arguably, a more traditional candidate, and they were clapping as they yelled out "Let's go, Joe!" A simple football-style cheer, Wells noted on her page.

Undersecretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs Karen Hughes, joined by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, on Oct. 31, 2007 announcing she's leaving the administration. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

by Mark Silva

Karen Hughes, a longtime adviser and friend of President Bush from Texas, is leaving Washington -- again.

On her first tour, in the president's first term, Hughes worked at burnishing Bush's image. She had served the former Texas governor as communications director at home and during his first campaign -- she returned to Texas to spend more time with her family.

On her second tour, at the State Department, Hughes has worked at burnishing the image of the United States abroad. She will be leaving her post as undersecretary of state for public diplomacy at the end of the year, she has told the Associated Press today.

Her mission at State, she acknowledges, remains incomplete.

"This will take a number of years,'' Hughes said of the challenge of improving the world's view of the U.S., calling it a "long-term challenge'' in her exit-announcement through the AP.

The president had brought Hughes back to Washington two years ago. The former television reporter and media adviser was focusing on changing the way the U.S. presents itself and counters criticism in the Muslim world.

"Negative events never help,'' she allowed -- speaking of the shooting of several Iraqi civilians last week by the State Department's private security contractor, Blackwater

by Christi Parsons and Mike Dorning

PHILADELPHIA -- The competitors in the Democratic presidential race moved aggressively Tuesday to derail the inevitability express that has been the campaign of front-runner Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York.

Clinton kept her eyes on a general election opponent, suggesting the Republicans' "constant obsession with me" owes to the fact that she presents the greatest threat to their White House chances next year.

But rival John Edwards argued that could be because Republicans actually want to run against her, and went on to condemn a "rigged" and "corrupt" system that he suggested has helped to keep the Clinton operation in business.

"Will she be the person who brings about the change in this country?" Edwards said. "You know, I believe in Santa Claus. I believe in the tooth fairy. But I don't think that's going to happen. . . . And I think that if people want the status quo, Sen. Clinton's your candidate."

Barack Obama agreed with Edwards that GOP candidates may be focusing on Clinton's candidacy "because that's a fight they're comfortable having" and argued that the last thing the country needs is a throwback to the 1990s and "another eight years of bickering."

See the rest of the story in today's Tribune:

by Mark Silva

A “treat’’ for Rudy Giuliani today, and a “trick’’ for Hillary Clinton: That’s what the people at the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute are offering the presidential candidates for Halloween. And maybe a goblin for the Republican Party this time next year: George Bush.

Giuliani, riding a see-saw with Clinton in recent national surveys by the Connecticut-based pollsters, holds a slim lead – 45 to 43 percent – in the latest poll released today. This, for sure, is a statistical tie – much like the slim 46-43 advantage that Clinton held in the last Quinnipiac survey.

But Giuliani had held a 49-40 percentage point advantage over Clinton in May. And Clinton’s favorable ratings have slipped in the latest survey released today – with surveyed voters split. Clinton’s already troubled favorable ratings have slipped in this survey too – with American voters split 46-46 in their positive and negative views toward the senator from New York. It was 48 favorable, 43 unfavorable in August.

“Sen. Clinton’s success on the campaign trail and the perception that she is unstoppable has made her the prime target for all the other candidates, Republican and Democratic. And the wounds are showing,” says Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “The Clinton Express has hit a bump. Future polls will show if it’s been derailed.”

Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois holds much the same position in a theoretical match-up with Giuliani: Obama 43, Giuliani 42 – though he and other Democratic rivals lag far behind Clinton (Clinton 47, Obama 21 in this poll’s survey of Democrats)

The Democrats do have one thing going for them, according to this survey: George Bush. Voters surveyed say, by a wide margin, that the president’s own low approval ratings will make it difficult for a Republican to be elected next year. The judgment is 58-37 on that question. Even among Republicans, Quinnipiac notes, the judgment is 48-48 that Bush has made the upcoming election difficult for his own party.

“Very bad news for Republicans: Most Americans think President Bush’s poor standing in the polls will make it hard for any Republican to be elected President,’’ Carroll says. “Even Republicans split 48 – 48 percent on this one.’’

For more, see the poll.

by Frank James

A quick guided tour of some of the morning's most important or interesting, or both, Washington-related stories.

The Supreme Court stopped an execution in Mississippi, the strongest indication yet that the court intends to halt all such ultimate sanctions until it decides a lethal injection case which is scheduled to be argued in January.

The U.S. military will oversee private-security contractors in Iraq as it attempts to tighten control over firms like Blackwater USA in order to avoid further unwarranted violence against Iraqi civilians like the killings of at least 17 Iraqis in September.

Having already brutally driven out many Baghdad Sunnis and taken over their neighborhoods, businesses and municipal services, Shiites are seeking to hold onto their gains, moving the civil war in Iraq into a less outwardly violent phase.

Good morning.

Here are a handful of Washington events of note for Halloween, October 31.

President Bush is speaking to the Grocery Manufacturers Association/Food Products Association.

The Commerce Department is releasing the 3rd quarter Gross Domestic Product report.

The Federal Reserve is deciding whether to lower interest rates again.

by Mark Silva

Rep. Dennis Kucinch of Ohio was asked this during a debate of the Democratic candidates for president tonight: Has he ever seen a UFO?

"The godmother of your daughter, Shirley MacLaine, writes in her new book that you've sighted a UFO over her home in Washington state,'' the questioner asked, "that you found the encounter extremely moving, that it was a triangular craft silent and hovering, that you felt a connection to your heart and heard direction in your mind.

"Now,'' Kucininch was asked, "did you see a UFO?'''

"I did,'' Kucinich said.

"And the rest of the account -- I didn't -- I -- it was unidentified flying object, okay. It's like -- it's unidentified. I saw something.

"Now, to answer your question,'' Kucinich said, "'m moving my -- and I'm also going to move my campaign office to Roswell, New Mexico and another one, an extra, to New Hampshire, okay... And also, you have to keep in mind that more -- that Jimmy Carter saw a UFO, and also that more people in this country have seen UFOs than, I think, approve of George Bush's presidency.''

Questioner Tim Russert replied: "14 percent of Americans say they
have seen UFOs.''

In the post-debate interviews, Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico said he is happy to promote tourism in Roswell, but he has never seen a UFO.

by Mark Silva

Rudy Giuliani, the front-running Republican candidate for president, had questioned what credentials Hillary Clinton, the front-running Democrat, has to serve as president in the last debate of the Republican candidates.

Tonight, in a Democratic debate, it was not Clinton, but rather one of her rivals, arguing -- forcefully -- that Giuliani is the one who is "genuinely not qualified to be president.''

At a Fox News-sponsored debate earlier this month, Giuliani, the former mayor of New York (pictured right), had said: "I don't know Hillary's experience. She's never run a city. She's never run a state. She's never run a business. She's never met a payroll. She's never been responsible for the safety and security of millions of people, much less even hundreds of people.''

"The irony is Rudy,'' Democratic Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware (pictured below) said in tonight's debate. "Rudy Giuliani, probably the most underqualified man since George Bush to seek the presidency (and this stirred laughter and applause) is here talking about any of the people here.

"Rudy Giuliani. I mean, think about it. Rudy Giuliani,'' Biden said. "There's only three things he mentions in a sentence: a noun and a verb and 9/11.

"I mean, there's nothing else.

"There's nothing else,'' Biden said. "And I mean it sincerely. He is genuinely not qualified to be president.''

Easy for Biden to say, the Giuliani camp said tonight -- "Sen. Biden has never run anything but his mouth.''

Tonight, the debate's all about Hillary Clinton, Democratic front-runner, on stage for two hours with six Democratic rivals. AP photo by Frank Franklin

by Mark Silva, and updated with debate

It may not take a heat-seeking missile to raise a debate with the front-running Democratic candidate for president, but six of Sen. Hillary Clinton's rivals are on call tonight.

The televised debate, a two-hour face-off coming live from Philadelphia on MSNBC and starting at 9 pm EDT, arrives after many previous debates in which Democrats have failed to shake the apparent claim that Clinton holds on her party's nomination for president in 2008.

It comes just a little more than two months from the premier Iowa caucuses, in which Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina hope to start putting Clinton's nomination in some other perspective than that of a foregone conclusion.

With Obama on stage at Drexel University and pledging to take the fight to Clinton, and with Edwards, who found that playing the nice guy was no formula for success in 2004, also ready to raise the stakes, Clinton's own skills will be on high display tonight.

The stage will be a little lighter tonight, with NBC having finally set a cutoff for candidates who have no visible means of support, meaning former Sen. Mike Gravel of Alaska. Yet this will help provide some of the other single-digit scrappers in this contest a somewhat higher profile.