Clinton, Giuliani runaway leaders, yet both troubled

by Don Frederick

The new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll, which you can peruse here, provides welcome news for Democrat Hillary Clinton and, to a lesser extent, Republican Rudy Giuliani.

But a closer look at the results also identifies the hurdles that could keep either out of the White House.

The poll reveals a substantial number of Republicans who will not, under any circumstances, back Giuliani because of his past stands on key social issues such as abortion

Clinton is favored for her party's presidential nomination by almost half -- 48 percent-- of Democratic-leaning voters nationwide. That gives her a formidable lead in the contest.

Her number is right on track with the average of her support -- 48.5 percent-- in several other recent national surveys, as aggregated on the RealClearPolitics Website. And trend lines could hardly be more favorable for her -- as Clinton's backing has grown, Barack Obama's has not. He came in this time with only 17 percent

The poll also found Clinton doing significantly better in potential general election matchups with the top Republican presidential contenders, compared with the results in a Times/Bloomberg poll conducted in June. Back then, she lost each of these faceoffs; now, she's ahead.

Still, there's that little matter of her favorability rating.

When a sample that included Democrats, Republicans and independent voters was asked their impression of the New York senator and former first lady, she just barely ended up in positive territory: 48 percent said they had a favorable view of her, 44 percent unfavorable (a difference that falls inside the margin of error for this question -- 3 percentage points, plus or minus).

Most important, she did not score as well with independents, who loom as such a crucial bloc in so many states. Among these voters, 42 percent gave Clinton favorable marks, 46 percent unfavorable.

These results are sure to stoke the arguments her Democratic rivals make about her prospects in a general election, as the Chicago Tribune's Jill Zuckman wrote.

On the Republican side of the ledger, front-runner Giuliani has a more than 2-to-1 margin over his closest rival -- he's backed by 32 percent of GOP-leaning voters; Fred Thompson garners 15 percent. Fred Thompson, in turn, is followed closely by John McCain (13 percent) and Mitt Romney (11 percent), with Mike Huckabee next (7 percent).

The numbers mean it's hard to tell who's running second, given the error margin of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points for the questions asked only of Republican- or Democratic-leaning voters.

If Clinton's big lead in the Democratic race belies potential problems she would face as the nominee, the poll highlights even more daunting challenges that Giuliani confronts.

When the GOP pool of voters was asked whether social conservatives should run a third-party candidate if the Republican nominee has a record of supporting abortion and gay rights (a description that fits only Giuliani), fully 34 percentsaid yes.

Additionally, 38 percent said they could only vote for a candidate who opposes abortion and gay rights.

At the moment, Giuliani is benefiting from the failure of any of his rivals to consolidate the GOP's conservative base. Indeed, he claims the largest bloc of support -- 34 percent -- among those Republican voters who identify themselves as conservatives.

The questions that then arise are whether that's a group large enough to prevent him from winning the GOP nod, or derail his prospects in the general election if he does.

Don Frederick is a poltiical editor in the L.A. Times' Washington bureau and wrote this for Top of the Ticket, the Times' political blog.