by David Lightman

HANOVER, N.H.--No, she doesn't have it wrapped up.

Listen to the buzz in western New Hampshire, where the candidates met last week to debate.

And more important, look deep into the Granite State Poll, the University of New Hampshire survey that has New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton ahead by a huge margin, and you'll find that 55 percent of the Democratic voters polled say they are still trying to make up their minds.

In fact, only 17 percent say they have definitely decided who to vote for, and another 28 percent say they are only leaning toward a candidate.

No surprise here.

What's happening is typical of New Hampshire autumns, as predictable as the traffic jams on Interstates 93 and 89 as people slow down to admire the foliage. It's one thing to prefer a candidate; it's quite another to cast a vote for them.

Think back to 2003. In the first week of October, the same pollsters found former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean had "consolidated his position as the frontrunner in the Granite State." He not only got 30 percent, well ahead of Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, at 17 percent, but was beginning to win big endorsements. And he had an advantage as the familiar neighbor who for years governed the state next door. The only wild card seemed to be retired Gen. Wesley Clark, a newcomer to the race, who got 10 percent.

Sure enough, said the poll, "there is beginning to be a sense of inevitability to Dean's campaign in New Hampshire, despite the election being months away."

And everyone knows how that came out….Dean faded quickly after losing the Iowa caucus to Kerry, who went on to beat Dean by 12 points in New Hampshire.

The lesson is as old as those leaves on the trees. Well, maybe not that old. But it’s this: It's one thing to complain about candidates, and tell your friends and the pollsters and the media that you like this one or that one. But when people actually go in the booth, close the curtain and say to themselves, 'This is who I want to be president,' the equation changes.

That's why Ronald Reagan surged in the days before the 1980 primary and won a 27-point victory over George H.W. Bush, who had won Iowa by 2 and now seemed to be boasting about “Big Mo,” as in momentum, as he made his way through New Hampshire.

That’s why, eight years later, Bob Dole, who had just beaten Bush by 19 in Iowa (Pat Robertson was second), seemed to be more personable and on the upswing while Bush was the incumbent vice president--and therefore less apt to hang around hotel lobbies and just chat with passersby. But Bush came on strong at the end and thoroughly beat Dole in New Hampshire.

And so on.

So many variables remain this year, as they do every year. Will Clinton stumble? Will the “electability” factor make her vulnerable when people really have to cast a vote and make a choice?

Will enough independents decide to vote Democratic to help John Edwards or Barack Obama, who have shown crossover appeal? Will the grassroots, door-to-door, diner-to-diner campaigns of Chris Dodd, Joe Biden and Bill Richardson pay off? Will Dennis Kucinich become the darling of the increasingly frustrated anti-war crowd? And will the Iowa winner get enough momentum that winning in New Hampshire will be almost inevitable?

Such things have happened. At this point in 1984, Colorado Sen. Gary Hart seemed to be going nowhere. The consensus choice was former Vice President Walter F. Mondale, who seemed to have all the unions, all the big endorsements, all the money and all the momentum.

Sure enough, Mondale smashed all his rivals in the Iowa caucus, winning 49 percent. But the media took note of who finished second, even if it was with only 16.5 percent--Hart.

Voters were curious, and within hours, Hart was all over TV. By the time he got to New Hampshire a few days later, he was drawing overflow crowds and ended up beating Mondale by nearly 10 points.

Then again, Hart didn't get the nomination. Mondale was too well-organized, too popular with traditional Democrats.

But Hart came close. Turns out Mondale didn't have it wrapped up that fall after all.

David Lightman is the Hartford Courant's Washington Bureau Chief. He's held that position since 1984, and has covered national politics since 1980. He joined the Courant in 1981, and prior to that spent 10 years as a reporter with the Baltimore Evening Sun, where he covered the governor and legislature for six years. He has also worked for the Hagerstown (Md.) Morning Herald and the Riverside (Calif.) Press- Enterprise.