Iraqis doubtful of improvement, some blame U.S.

by Mark Silva

Expectations for or a better life in Iraq are diminishing, according to the results of ABC polling and an analysis by Tony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

In 2004 and 2005 alike, he reports, three-quarters of Iraqis surveyed “expected improvements in the coming year in their security, schools, availability of jobs, medical care, crime protection, clean water and power supply.’’

Today only about 23 percent still expect better -- down from 40 percent in March.

Forty-seven percent of all Iraqis surveyed say U.S. forces should leave Iraqi immediately. “This percentage has been steadily rising, from 35 percent in March and 26 percent in November 2005, he reports. Just 34 percent of Iraqis say U.S. and Coalition forces should “stay until security is restored.’’ Indeed 19 percent of Iraqis surveyed blame either U.S. or coalition forces for the current violence in Iraq.

“And 8 percent blamed George W. Bush personally,’’ the report notes.

The report showing “the state of Iraq hearts and minds’’ was prepared with the help of Gary Langer and the ABC polling unit.

“The results should be reviewed in detail,’’ Cordesman notes, delivering a 70-page report (find a link to that below). “Polls do not provide some simply punch line insights. They rather provide a mosaic of the various attitudes Iraqis have towards key issues. Unless they are reviewed in detail, picking out one trend or result can be more misleading than helpful.’’

Yet, Cordesman reports, the surveys "make it clear that Iraqis do not support breaking up the country, or separation and strong federalism at the expense of national unity. They show that perceptions of violence are not eased by sectarian and ethnic divisions and are high in most areas with a dominant Arab Sunni or Arab Shi'ite population and leadership.

“They also indicate that Iraqis will tolerate a U.S. and coalition presence only as long as it is necessary to put an end to violence and until Iraqi forces are ready to take over the job,’’ he reports. “At the same time, they show a sharp decline in popular confidence in both the national and local governments, and the perception that violence and sectarian cleansing continue to rise.’’

The report portrays the results of a series of polls, the latest conducted by ABC, the BBC, and NHK in August, and published in September.

“Most of the results show a deterioration in the situation since the previous poll in March 2007,’’ the report notes. “Virtually all show the level of violence and civil conflict is higher than most Iraqi and US government sources like to publicly admit. They also show that most Iraqis see the US and Coalition forces as at least a partial threat, do not trust the US or coalition, and see their aid efforts as failed or non-existent.

“As security conditions have worsened, so have expectations for future improvement in the conditions of life -- an especially troubling result, since hopes for a better future can be the glue that holds a struggling society together, the report notes.

“The ABC News poll conducted in August 2007 did find, however, that 41 percent of all Iraqis saw security as the most serious single issue facing the their life -- up from 18 percent in 2005. The poll found that while in 2005, 63 percent of Iraqis said they felt very safe in their neighborhoods in 2005, only 26 percent had said this in August. Twenty-eight percent did not feel safe at all. In Baghdad, home to a fifth of the country’s population…

“Nationally, 11 percent of all Iraqis surveyed in August 2007 reported that ethnic cleansing -- the forced separation of Sunnis and Shiites -- had
occurred in their neighborhoods… In mixed-population Baghdad, 27 percent of all Iraqis surveyed in August 2007 reported that ethnic cleansing -- the forced separation of Sunnis and Shiites -- had occurred in their neighborhoods. As of March 2007, one in seven Iraqis overall -- rising to a quarter of Sunni Arabs, and more than a third of Baghdad residents -- said they themselves have moved homes in the last year to avoid violence or religious persecution…

“A total of 47 percent of all Iraqis felt US forces should leave Iraqi immediately. This percentage has been steadily rising, from 35 percentmin March 2007 and 26 percent in November 2005. In contrast, about one third (34 percent) of Iraqis felt that US and Coalition forces should stay until security is restored.

“Other analysis of the polling results showed that 19 percent of Iraqis polled blamed either U.S. and coalition forces for the current violence in
Iraq, and eight percent blamed George W. Bush personally.

“Al Qaead and foreign jihadi fighters were blamed by 21 percent (far more by Shiites and Kurds than by Sunnis). Indeed, one of the top instances of local violence measured in the poll was “unnecessary violence against Iraqi citizens by U.S. or coalition forces.” Forty-one percent of Iraqis -- including 63 percent of Sunni Arabs -- reported such violence as having occurred nearby.’’

See the full, and lengthy, report here: Download file