New Iowa Poll shows Clinton, Romney in lead: The Swamp
The Swamp
Posted October 7, 2007 12:26 PM
The Swamp

by John McCormick, updated

As Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois arrives in Des Moines this afternoon for a meeting with his national finance committee, campaign manager David Plouffe and top strategist David Axelrod, he will be back in the state where his polling has been stalled for months.

With the nation's first presidential balloting just three months off, a new poll shows Sen. Hillary Clinton with a narrow lead among Iowans expected to participate in their state's first-in-the-nation Democratic caucuses.

Clintongetty.jpg

Clinton wins support from 29 percent of likely caucus participants, followed by 23 percent for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards and 22 percent for Obama, according to a new Iowa Poll, released Saturday evening by The Des Moines Register.

Obama's position in the poll is virtually unchanged from May, while Edwards has slipped from the top spot in a state that is viewed as an essential win for his campaign.

Clinton has enjoyed wide leads in national polls, but this poll shows the New York senator has also gained ground in a state that had in recent months been widely considered a statistical toss-up among the top three Democrats.

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson was backed by 8 percent of likely caucus participants, while all the other Democrats in the field recorded 5 percent or less.

Romney%20counts.jpg

On the Republican side, the poll shows former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with a strong lead, at 29 percent. Actor and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson is his nearest challenger in the Iowa Poll, receiving the backing from 18 percent of likely GOP caucus participants.


(Mitt Romney, left, has run well in Iowa since winning the GOP straw poll there. Photo by Jim Cole/AP. The volatility on the Democratic side can be seen in 53 percent of likely caucus-goers saying they could be convinced to support some else. For now, Hillary Clinton leads in the Iowa Poll. Photo above by Getty Images/AFP)

The poll shows former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani are essentially tied for third place in Iowa, with 12 percent and 11 percent, respectively.

Sen. John McCain of Arizona is at 7 percent in the poll, with all other Republicans in the field receiving 5 percent of less.

For Clinton, who along with Edwards is campaigning in Iowa this weekend, the poll offers a boost. But it also shows the race remains fluid, with 53 percent of Democratic poll participants saying they could be convinced to support someone else.

The newspaper reported that Obama, who was campaigning in the state while the poll was conducted, had the highest rating on the traits of integrity, vision and charisma.

He also led among political independents and those under age of 45, both groups that tend to be less dependable caucus participants than active Democrats and older voters.

The newspaper said the telephone survey of likely caucus-goers was conducted Monday through Wednesday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

The full Iowa Poll can be viewed here.

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Comments

Democrats must have short memories. If caucus goers in Iowa choose Senator Clinton and she goes on to win the nomination the only way she will stand a chance to win electoral college votes in 2008 in the South, the Rocky Mountain West or states like Ohio or Indiana is if the GOP screws up and nominates Mitt Romney (Which this article indicates they might - lucky for Democrats). These national polls give no indication how the electoral college vote will be distributed in the real national election. Democrats forget about their long history of candidates from Northeast states (and Al Gore who essentially was viewed as a Northeasterner despite his house in Tennessee). The party fell in love with candidates like Dukakis in 1988, Gore in 2000, and Kerry in 2004 and the day after election day they just couldn’t understand why their neighbors in red states didn’t feel the same compassion for those candidates. Democrats need to decide if they just want to make a statement and spend a lot of money in the 2008 election or if they want to win.


This is the way it's going to be in November. Romney-Clinton. In that order. Bring it on.


"Clinton has enjoyed wide leads in national polls, but this poll shows the New York senator has also gained ground in a state that had in recent months been widely considered a statistical toss-up among the top three Democrats."

The public doesn't see a president in Obama.

Well gee, I just don't know why. He has the all important "integrity, vision and charisma" -- umm... whatever that means. And celebrities assure us we should vote for him. And he knows the cost of vegetables at Whole Foods. Oh, and the ties, he wears great ties.

So I just don't get why the Obama Express is running off of a cliff.


A poll on both the Dems and the GOP, reported above with nine paragraphs on the Dems, versus three on the GOP.

Which is about the ratio I'd expect from a DNC affiliate.

Has reporter (?) John McCormick no shame?


The Republicans are in bad shape no matter who they select:

If they choose Romney, in addition to the Mormon baggage, they will have a notorious flip-flopper on every social and economic issue there is. If the Republicans think they had a good time calling Kerry a flip-flopper the Democrats will truly have a made-for-order target in Romney. I read an analysis yesterday that showed, point-for-point, how Hillary’s health care plan, which Romney is now criticizing, is almost exactly the same as the one he supported and which has since gone into law in Massachusetts!

If they choose Giuliani, the Republican party will undoubtedly splinter off into a third party. The anti-abortion conservative Christian crowd, who feel they own the party, simply do not compromise on what they feel are their “core issues” and would rather destroy the party than see someone like Giuliani elected.

And who does that leave? The current second-tier of Thompson and McCain.

McCain would be the biggest challenge to Hillary, but he seems to be somewhat of a fading star this time around. And his views on Iraq do not resonate with public feeling this election cycle.

And Thompson has seemed to be nothing more than a two-dimensional, lackluster candidate with no real conviction or cause behind his candidacy. Not to mention his own background problems with the evangelical conservative Republican base.

Meanwhile, Hillary has risen in the polls so that she has the support of a majority of Democrats and beats any Republican candidate in head-to-head matchups.

doug


Great to see that religious discrimination is alive and well in this great nation of ours. Let's see, which religion is acceptable since Mormonism isn't? Please tell us, those of you who think Romney has no civil rights because of his religion.
This is Jack Kennedy all over again.


The Glover Park Group, Burson and Marstellar; two p.r. firms with shocking Clinton and corporate connections. Howard Wolfson, Mark Penn, Patti Solis Doyle..The individuals running her campaign. See who they are and what they do.

I was undecided until I saw Obama speak first hand then I saw how it was covered by the press. The coverage was twisted and misconstrued. The polls say many are taking is hook line and sinker.

We cannot get bush wacked again. Obama critics, at least keep quiet until you get your facts straight. It you do some digging you will be appalled.


Sadly, not alot of astute observations above - instead alot of excited political activists who aren't thinking objectively. The Republicans actually don't have a bad field. Most of their frontrunners are from outside Washington. You have to go back 50 years to the last time a Senator won a presidential race - and it was a close one. Bottom-line, not to bust anyone's bubble, but in a national race Senator Clinton will not win a single state in the South. She will not win Ohio or Indiana nor will she win the Rocky Mountain states. Unfortunately, we will see a repeat of 1988, 2000, and 2004. I challenge some of the posters above to get out to some red states and ask people what they think about Senator Clinton, based on what I’m reading above none of her supporters are doing that. Maybe after 12 years of Republican rule Democrats will get serious in 2012.


RNC Bruce,

Why do you blog here if you don't like it?

Is it that your RNC masters pay you to WHINE here with your incessant babble?


Hillary Clinton is the most electable Democrat and people in Iowa are smart enough to see that. John McCain would have been the most difficult GOP candidate to beat, but it looks as if the religeous right wing-nuts will try to put up one of their own or the former town mayor.


"Bottom-line, not to bust anyone's bubble, but in a national race Senator Clinton will not win a single state in the South. She will not win Ohio or Indiana nor will she win the Rocky Mountain states."

Troy makes a good point. The three front runners can not do well in Red States.

The Republicans are in a very bad position for all of the obvious reasons, so the democrats' have an advantage by default... but they COULD lose it. Remember '88?


Hillary has spent over $1 million on TV ads in Iowa (Obama $3 million) and John Edwards only $23,000. And yet John Edwards is holding his own in Iowa.
I wonder why? Maybe its because Iowans have good common sense and see this is an election, not an auction.

The national polls mean relatively little. In 1984, Gary Hart trailed Walter Mondale by FIFTY points nationally in a CBS poll. The next day, Hart beat Mondale in New Hampshire. The two went on to slug it out all spring, with Mondale, the heavy favorite and front runner, not such a sure thing for weeks and weeks. Let the voters decide, not the media.


The Republicans are going to kick butt in 2008, Hillary and Barack don't stand a chance because they don't have our GOP values system:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63sMyCAJXEY

The Democrats will be destroyed by our guy Rudy in 08:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHcmjY8sI54


"President Bush, for some reason, has vetoed the Child Health Insurance Plan. I believe his comment was, 'Childrens do get sick, but childrens do get better again.'"
~JAY LENO~


"This morning on Capitol Hill ... four bathroom fires broke out inside the Senate office building. Inside one bathroom, three big, burly firemen broke the door down, kicked in the stall, and Senator Craig said, 'My dreams have come true.'"
~JAY LENO~


"Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has proposed $5,000 be given to every baby born in the United States. And today, Republicans attacked Hillary's plan, saying what babies need are jobs, not handouts. ... $5,000? Imagine that. Remember when politicians just kissed babies? Now we have to pay them off too."
~JAY LENO~


"The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Rudy Giuliani has taken cell phone calls from his wife over 40 times during speeches. 40 times! And each time, it was a different wife calling
~JAY LENO~


"Earlier today ... on Capitol Hill, firemen put out four small fires that were started in bathrooms at the Senate office building. Senator Larry Craig was seen running from the bathroom, screaming, 'I won't go quietly!'"
~CONAN O'BRIEN~


"It turns out having a private security firm subject neither to Iraqi, United States nor international law can create some oversight issues, killing wise. But not to worry, for Blackwater's day of reckoning is at hand [on screen: Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA), 'I want you to know Blackwater will be accountable today']. For I am Waxman. Yes, the burden the of dispensing justice to Blackwater's mercenary army has fallen on the what I can only assume are the hirsute shoulders of the man who couldn't even get Harriet Miers to testify."
~JON STEWART~ - on the Blackwater controversy


"This week's 'Alpha Dog' is President George W. Bush. Now it goes without saying that President Bush could be my 'Alpha Dog' every week. He has certainly left his mark all over this country, but now he has outdone even himself. You see, for years the Left has accused the Bush administration of doing nothing on global warming. As if intimidating scientists is nothing. But the president cares just as much about climate change as Al Gore. He just would have called his documentary 'How Inconvenient That The Science Isn't In Yet.' This week, President Bush proved how much he cares by hosting a global warming summit, where he asked the rest of the world to follow him on climate change. And that takes glacier-sized balls, pre-global warming. The president set a clear goal to reduce emissions [on screen: Bush saying, 'By setting this goal, we commit ourselves to doing something about it. By next summer, we will convene a meeting of heads of state to finalize the goal']. Next summer, the goal will be finalized. At this rate, we should be able to take action on global warming by ... January 20, 2009. In one day, the president leapt from the back of the pack to the lead husky, leaving the rest of the world staring at his swinging sack. ... So Mr. President, for leading us to a bold commitment to finalize a goal for future possible action to solve global warming, you, sir, are my 'Alpha Dog' of the week"
~STEPHEN COLBERT~


Really? What happened to the Iowa poll of caucus goers that showed Obama 28, Clinton 24 and Edwards 21 or something like that? Funny when that was the case, it sure didnt make headlines like this new one favoring Hillary that will probably go on every news channel from now until December! Think I'll throw up now.


All of the 08 Republicans candidates are putrid and as a loyal Republican I'm going to sit out this election because of how disappointed I am in our candidates (I'm looking for someone who can do as well as George W. Bush has done as President):

--------


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