by William Neikirk
Now what will the Fed do?
The Labor Department reported today that the economy created 110,000 new payroll jobs in September, a bit more than expected and a sign that the economic growth is still solid.
The service sector accounted for all of the increase in jobs last month while manufacturing and construction jobs declined, partly because of the continuing housing correction.
At the same time, the department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said there was no decline in the number of jobs in August as first reported. Rather, the bureau said 89,000 payroll jobs were created in August. Also, 93,000 jobs were added in July.
The August jobs report caused the Federal Reserve to reverse course and slash interest rates sharply. Now, it seems, things weren't as bad as suspected. But as the result of today's report, another interest-rate cut -- -widely expected before the report -- may now be up in the air.
If this picture isn't confusing enough, the monthly employment report showed that the national jobless rate actually rose a hair, from 4.6 to 4.7 percent. That's partly because the jobless rate is calculated by a separate survey of the work force not considered as reliable on a month-to-month basis as the number of actual payroll jobs added.
This separate survey--called the "household" report--is based on interviews with some 60,000 people as to their employment status in the middle of the month. It is essentially a large poll to determine the economy's total job picture. As a result, the bureau estimated that 463,000 jobs were created across the entire economy in September. But the jobless rate rose because the labor force actually grew by 573,000.
Economists focus their attention on the "payroll" report because it surveys business establishments and governments. The information tends to be more accurate. Because of population growth, analysts say that a monthly growth rate of at least 100,000 is usually necessary to keep the unemployment rate from rising.
There were 143,000 service jobs added last month, led by employment increases in professional business services, education and health services, leisure and hospitality, and government. Retail employment was down by 5,000.
Goods producing employment fell by 33,000, with 19,000 of that coming in manufacturing.
The average work week was unchanged. Average weekly earnings went up 0.4 percent. Wages have gone up 4.1 percent over the past year--a potential problem for the Federal Reserve as it tries to keep inflation under control.







Comments
Good news for the economy - what will the loons do?
Posted by: Terry | October 5, 2007 9:24 AM
Terry:
As the article says, the economy needs to create 100,000 new jobs per month just to keep up with the new workers entering the market. So we had 110,000 in September, but only added 89,000 in August and 93,000 in July. That means in the quarter, we ended up creating 8,000 jobs LESS than were needed to keep up population growth.
And part of the job increase was due to the hospitality and leisure industry - you know, those high paying jobs at McDonalds.
Posted by: BobinATL | October 5, 2007 9:58 AM
Wages up 4.1 percent, new jobs exceed expectations, growth more than what
economists predicted? Just goes to prove how right the Democrats are in saying the economy is so bad. And to top it off, home prices are declining making it possible for many persons to now purchase a home. What a cataclysmic development.
Posted by: Harrison | October 5, 2007 10:10 AM
Terry:
Please tell us how a rise in unemployed Americans is good for the economy.
Posted by: BC | October 5, 2007 10:20 AM
And to top it off, home prices are declining making it possible for many persons to now purchase a home. What a cataclysmic development.
Posted by: Harrison | October 5, 2007 10:10 AM
Great take on the housing market. Except the fact that with the declining prices, there is less equity for Americans to use to buy other goods. Also, try to get a mortgage. Find a company still open for business and see how easy it is to qualify for a mortgage. With the bar being raised for a qualified buyer, the borderline candidates won't stand a chance.
Posted by: bill r. | October 5, 2007 10:24 AM
Bobin,
Let's play up your "hospitality and leisure indutry" job growth angle.
Why is there job growth in these industries? Because there is demand for these services. There is only demand for these services when Americans have income to spend on these types of services.
When would Americans have money to spend on these types of services, when the economy is going well or when the economy is going bad?
This just goes to show, when the economy is good, the liberals are unhappy.
Posted by: Terry | October 5, 2007 10:36 AM
Terry:
You did not answer my other statement - you know, about how the growth came up 8,000 short over the quarter.
Also you ignored what I said about those industries - how many people can live on the $7.50 an hour they usually make in those jobs?? Remember, the higher paying jobs in manufacturing are going away. How many $7.50 an hour McDonalds jobs equal 1 manufacturing job??
Posted by: BobinATL | October 5, 2007 10:43 AM
Terry, can you explain why sales are down at places like Wal-Mart and are booming at all up-scale retailers?
Posted by: Raving Loon | October 5, 2007 10:58 AM
Loon:
You know why - it's because all of us middle class taxpayers took our huge tax cut and are now spending it at Neiman-Marcus instead of Wal-Mart!!!
Posted by: BobinATL | October 5, 2007 11:16 AM
No economy is 'good' when there is this much debt. Let the Chinese call in their loans and see how good the economy is.
Posted by: Paul | October 5, 2007 11:40 AM
If the economy is so good, why is gas at $3.00? If the economy is so good, why does it cost nearly $4.00 for a gallon of milk?
The high price of energy and food is hardly affordable for poor and middle class income people. Of course, if you are rich, those increases are nothing for you! Hence, the great economy! The paper tiger economy! A lot of notes but no equity to back it up!
Posted by: Lou | October 5, 2007 1:18 PM
Bobin,
I never knew one was supposed to live on $7.50/hr. I would think that after 13 years of free gov't provided education, one should be able to climb past $7.50/hr?
High paying manufacturing jobs have been leaving for about 30 years.
As far as the 8,000 jobs hsort, show me the link so I can analyze the data.
Crazy Duck,
"can you explain why sales are down at places like Wal-Mart and are booming at all up-scale retailers?"
The economy might be doing better than you think. Or people are living or their credit cards.
Paul,
Did the United States issue callable bonds?
Lou
"If the economy is so good, why is gas at $3.00? If the economy is so good, why does it cost nearly $4.00 for a gallon of milk?"
Ever hear of supply and demand? If the poor could not afford gas, do you think the roads would be as congested as they are?
You guys ought to be paying me for this!
Posted by: Terry | October 5, 2007 2:27 PM
Terry,
"Ever hear of supply and demand? If the poor could not afford gas, do you think the roads would be as congested as they are?
You guys ought to be paying me for this!"
Yes, I've heard of supply and demand. It's call MONOPOLY! You set the price of oil and hell, everybody has to pay for it! No oil is worth 80 bucks a barrel! It's fuzzy math. . .there is a demand but not that big! It's all paper tiger economy. Hedge Funds holding oil price. But, sooner or later, the cows will have to come home. hahaha. . .
Here is a few tips for you:
1. End the war in Iraq, and oil price will go down ral fast. All those gas guzzling tanks, planes and humvees will save us a lot of supply!
2. Foresight- Go Ethanol. Technology is not new. South American countries already have 80% of their cars running on Ethanol. It's time to buy those company and catch up. No need to invest in research, just buy the technology and implemented at Ford! hahaha
3. Yes, the poor tend to take public transportation. But with fares hiking and routes cutting due to gas price, it hurts them. Of course not you, you problably drive a Humvee gas guzzler. hahaha. . .
Posted by: Lou | October 5, 2007 2:47 PM
Go ethanol?" You've got to be kidding. Ethanol creates more greenhouse gases than gasoline, produces less energy, and is driving up the prices of corn to record levels causing vast increases in prices for cereal, bread, milk and beef that regressively and disproportionately affect low income people. The ethanol push was fueled by fat-cat corporations that process corn into alcohol and the benefit to farmers has been minimal. And FYI, the South American countries (you really mean Brazil) produce ethanol from huge surplus sugar stocks, not corn, and is a much more efficient process and is not taking food out of the mouths of poor people.
Posted by: Sequim | October 5, 2007 3:24 PM
Clueless Lou,
What percentage of the world's daily supply of oil do you think the US military is using in Iraq? IS it OK for the military to use oil in Afghanistan?
The demand for oil - have you looked at China's and INdia's economy lately - something that wasn't an issue 10 years ago.
End the war and the price will go down real fast. Do you think all that Iraqi oil is going to flood the market?
Ethanol is South America is made from Sugar Cane, not corn. If we could import it, it would decrease fuel costs. There is currently a 54 cent tariff on it. Guess which state's Senators support that? hohoho!
If the poor are taking public transportation, then who is flooding the highways. We can't have that many middle and upper class people in this country, after all George Bush is president. Aren't there mile-long lines to the spoup kitchens, children selling pencils on the street corners, ...?
Posted by: Terry | October 5, 2007 3:46 PM
Sequim or whoever you really are,
Don't get so discouraged so easily. Everything in life seems to be a challenge for you. . .
We can put people on the moon. It isn't any harder for us to be making cars that run on Ethanol which is cleaner and cheaper. Think outside of the box. Who said we had to use corn? I didn't mention corn anywhere. . .in my post.
If Brazil has a surplus, then let's buy it from them? Why not? From what I understand, Ethanol can be produce by many other types of plants. Who said we were stuck on corn or sugar cane? For all I know, we problably can use grass if we really wanted to! Not efficiently yet, but we'll get there.
Secondly, E-85 cars are already a reality. Just need more tax breaks for people who makes and buys E-85 cars. That will help spur the growth.
Posted by: Lou | October 5, 2007 3:47 PM
Terry,
Mile long bread lines? hahahaha. . .you expect poor people to be in a mile long bread lines? hahaha. . .poor people are smarter than that!
Poor, desperate and hungry people don't stand in bread lines. They steal, commit crimes to stay alive. They rob banks if they really desperate enough.
Was there a bread line in the French Revolution? No, I think not! I think everyone got their pitches and forks out!
History does teach us lessons. . .and it always repeat. Go ahead and live in your daydream castle.
Posted by: Lou | October 5, 2007 5:26 PM
Trickle Down Terry,
Why aren't you all over the homeless thread telling these worthless, lazy and stupid homeless people that you prefer to not see to get off the government's dole and get a job?
"If the poor are taking public transportation, then who is flooding the highways. We can't have that many middle and upper class people in this country, after all George Bush is president."
No one argues that the upper class and owners of capitol are not doing fine in this economy, nice logic. I doubt you take public transportation, so what qualifies you to baldly assert what you do? As a matter of fact, around 46% of households make over $50,000 per year, and that would, I'm guessing, account for more than a handful of cars. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States
"Aren't there mile-long lines to the spoup kitchens, children selling pencils on the street corners, ...?"
I gotta tell ya Terry, you are a world-class shmuck. An unfunny, real-world charicature of C. Montgomery Burns. A ghoul.
Alleviating poverty is as much or more an ECONOMIC issue as it is a MORAL one. You clearly reject the moral aspects, and refuse to ever acknowledge the economic advantages.
The essence of the ECONOMIC argument you seem incapable of understanding:
"McKinney represents what a REAL Republican should be about -- the health, wealth and well-being of EVERY American reflects the health, wealth and well-being of the country."
Posted by: DD | October 5, 2007 2:27 PM
Posted by: Distrust and Verify | October 5, 2007 5:49 PM
We are screwed.
In the old days when a cyclical industry like, say, steel went slow they temporarily shut down a mill and temporarily laid off the workers.
Now that the $$ is low there is no excess capacity to fire up and cash in. The mills are gone and the workers are bankrupted.
Too bad America. You have a long, hard, and possibly bloody fight ahead of you to reclaim what you so stupidly discarded.
No people get what they deserve more than the complacent.
Posted by: C.Morris | October 5, 2007 7:22 PM
DV (Tony),
Taking john E's name for me - your thought process has really expnded.
The homeless thread didn't really thrill me, then again I haven't read what all you 35% (wink)tax bracket people have written.
take public transit daily - except on days like today where I am educating dribble like you.
Montgomery Burns - a classic Simpson reference, I figured you for a WTTW gut since you are in the 35% tax bracket.
CM,
Look at the economy since the late 70's (when the decline of manufacturing started). After the recessiuon of 1981-82, we have had about 18 months of recession - would you call that bad?
You probably still feel sorry for the bugy whip manufacturer.
Clueless Lou,
In the French Revolution, I believe they ate cake.
Posted by: Terry | October 5, 2007 11:27 PM
Bill R., I happen to do real estate on the side, believe me, there is no problem in folks getting a mortgage if they qualify. It's no different today than it was 5 years ago. Also, home prices have risen so much in recent years (until 2006-2007) that using equity still isn't a problem.
Bobin, this country has been losing manufacturing jobs for decades and most of that loss can be attributed to liberal laws and policies. And who says all these manufacturing workers end up at McDOnalds or Wal-Mart?
Posted by: John D | October 6, 2007 2:26 AM
"Montgomery Burns - a classic Simpson reference, I figured you for a WTTW gut since you are in the 35% tax bracket."
You REALLY need to get out of the house more, Terry. One cannot watch WTTW (of course, I do) and also enjoy The Simpsons?
I noticed you didn't attempt to back up your absurd statement that because there is a lot of traffic on the roads that means there aren't really that many poor people, despite the fact that half the country makes over $50,000 per year, and thus is likely to own a car. That's a whole lot of people clogging the roadways.
And you weren't "interested" in the homeless thread. Oh lord I'm shocked, SHOCKED!! that you wouldn't be. Out of sight, out of mind.
Of course, no rebuttal to the economic value of reducing poverty either.
Why don't you tell me that tale again about how supply-side economics was attempted three times, during Kennedy, Reagan and Bush II and the economy exploded.
I mean, those were the ONLY times the economy grew at rapid rates, right? Clearly the economy was floundering after WWII when the top tax rate was 91%, or in the 90's when it was raised to 39.1%.
I'll give you credit for being a dogmatic ideologue, you get no credit for your capability to make a rational argument or objectively analyze data.
And my name isn't Tony.
Posted by: Distrust and Verify | October 6, 2007 10:46 AM
Imaginary Terry,
In the French Revolution, they ate cake? hahahaha. . .
Here is a quote describing a tiny portion of the French Revolution History for you:
" Inflation was rampant and the assignats fell to 50% of their face value. The resulting grain shortages triggered food riots in Paris by the sans culottes and the Jacobins, who called for strong price controls. Events were spinning out of control, and with each bit of bad news, the Girondins' position became more dangerous. Finally, on June 2, 1793, a crowd of 80,000 armed sans culottes and National Guardsmen overthrew the Girondins. The Jacobins took control and established a dictatorship under the Committee of Public Safety, a group of nine men whose most famous member, Robespierre, symbolized the reign of terror about to unfold."
That doesn't sound like people are eating cake during the French Revolution is it? It sounds like a lot of people dying. . .
Posted by: Lou | October 6, 2007 11:06 AM
Clueless,
Ever hear of Marie Antoinette?
Are you saying the liberals are going to riot in the streets?
Posted by: Terry | October 6, 2007 3:42 PM
"Clueless,
Ever hear of Marie Antoinette?
Are you saying the liberals are going to riot in the streets?
Posted by: Terry | October 6, 2007 3:42 PM"
T,
No, it won't be the liberals. It will be scarier people.
*********************
"You probably still feel sorry for the bugy whip manufacturer."
If by that you Studebaker, yes I do still feel bad for those workers. They all lost their pensions. It's why the socialists created the Pension Board Guaranty Corp., to protect defined pension benefits.
Posted by: C.Morris | October 6, 2007 8:26 PM
Imaginary,
I'm not asking or promoting people to riot. I'm telling you what people do naturally to stay alive.
As you recall,the New orleans incident. There was no long bread line. People were just stealing food, water; and killing just to survive.
You are asking me where the bread line is if the economy is so bad. I'm telling you that you won't find a bread line. We certainly didn't see a bread line in New orleans. . .just violence. People trying to stay alive.
Posted by: Lou | October 6, 2007 11:13 PM
CM,
I meant buggy whip manufacturuer.
As far as the PBGC, I know our company has to pay a very large check to them annually and we have a fully-funded pension. Spreading the pain the socilist way.
Posted by: Terry | October 7, 2007 7:11 AM
MOre that will drive the left nuts with the recent jobs report:
http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSHER26663520071006?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&rpc=23&sp=true
Posted by: Terry | October 7, 2007 8:26 AM