by Mark Silva, and updated
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York has lost nearly half the apparent advantage she held over her closest Democratic rival, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, among likely voters in the New Hampshire presidential primary, according to the results of a new poll released today.
Republican Mitt Romney of Massachusetts still claims a lead among the GOP’s candidates for president in New Hampshire – claiming the support of 33 percent of likely Republican primary voters, compared with 22 percent for former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and 13 percent for Sen. John McCain of Arizona. The rest, including former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee, claim only single-digit support among Republican voters in the survey.
Clinton’s “once commanding lead over her Democratic rivals’’ in New Hampshire has eroded, according to the findings of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.
Clinton held a 21 percentage-point advantage over Obama, her closest rival, last month, the Marist Poll found. That gap has narrowed to 11 points in the latest Marist survey.
The new poll of likely Democratic primary voters in the Granite State has found 36 percent supporting Clinton, 25 percent Obama and 14 percent former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina.
“Although Hillary Clinton has seen a decline in support among many groups within New Hampshire’s likely Democratic Primary electorate, one of the biggest changes has been among men 45 years of age and older,’’ Marist reports. Last month, Clinton led both Obama and Edwards by 20 percentage points among these voters – and the new poll by Marist finds that competition is “now a three-way contest.’’
Another poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire for the Boston Globe today portrayed the contest among the leading candidates this way: Among Democrats: Clinton, 35 percent, Obama 21, Edwards 15, Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico 10 percent. Among Republicans: Romney 32 percent, Giuliani 20, McCain 17, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas 7.
While this poll also potrays Romney and Clinton as their parties' front-runners in New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation presidential primary, "they have yet to seal it.'' Only 16 percent of Republicans and 24 percent of Democrats said they've "definitely decided" whom to support.
The poll finds 25 percent of likely primary voters saying they want someone who will bring about change, 22 percent are looking for a strong leader, 21 percent looking for a nominee who is closest to them on the issues and 20 percent looking for someone who shares their values.
Clinton leads among those looking for a strong leader and those looking for a candidate close to them on issues or sharing their values. Obama leads among likely voters looking for someone who will bring about change.
The war in Iraq, the economy and health care easily outweigh other concerns among likely primary voters, the survey found -- with 29 percent calling the war the most important issue. Among these voters, Clinton and Obama are virtually tied in their support. Clinton draws more support from those concerned about the economy and health care.
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And more than half of those surveyed – 53 percent – still believe that Clinton has the best chance of beating a Republican nominee in November 2008
Among Republican voters surveyed, 30 percent are looking for a strong leader, 27 percent someone who shares their values, 25 percent someone close on the issues. Romney leads on values and issues and “runs competitively’’ with Giuliani on the question of leadership.
Security from terrorism tops their list of concerns, 27 percent calling this the most important issue in weighing their vote for president, with 21 percent citing the economy and 19 percent illegal immigration. Just 11 percent cite the war.
And, while the former governor of Massachusetts leads among likely Republican primary voters surveyed, 40 percent believe Giuliani has the best chance of beating a Democrat and 37 percent say Romney is the most electable of all.
The survey of 1,453 voters was conducted Nov. 2-6, with a sample selected in proportion to voter registration in each county and adjusted for turnout in previous elections. For the sample of 658 likely Democratic primary voters 533 likely Republican primary voters the possible margins of error are plus or minus 4 and 4.5 percentage points, respectively.
The Boston Globe poll was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center Nov. 2-7 and has a possible margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
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Comments
Obama is coming, tra-la, tra-la. Bama's best campaign effort is Hillary herself. The more people see her stumble and the more they hear her voice, the better it is for Obama. He should just do a commercial of her recorded screeches. Only it would hurt the ears of dogs everywhere.
Posted by: Jamison | November 11, 2007 9:18 AM
Barack Obama is the leader America needs to lead us out of the dark days of Dubya and Darth.
Posted by: Doug Zook | November 11, 2007 10:30 AM
"Barack Obama is the leader America needs..."
Doug will you or any of the other drones ever tell us exactly why? Of course not -- drones tend not to think.
With his desperate turn to negativity, Obama has picked up support with white males over 45 yrs old, but still lags women, minorities and labor. The politics of hope? A new kind of politics? Nope. Same old poop from a different bull.
America has been watching Obama for over a year now and sees a cardboard cut-out of a man, a media and marketing creation, a celebrity who is famous by Andy Warhol's definition of fame. They don't see a leader.
Better get used to the idea of a contest between Rudy and Hill.
Posted by: Your Worst Nightmare | November 11, 2007 11:24 AM
CORRECTION:
"white males over 45 yrs old" should read ....
"males over 45 yrs old"
The point being that he's reached out and made gains to those who think with their hormones.
Posted by: Your Worst Nightmare | November 11, 2007 11:35 AM
The truth is democrates can only win the general election with independents and some republicans. So they will need a nominee who can appeal to indepenents and republican and Obama is the guy. Also Obama is the one likely to get the evangelicals votes.
Posted by: Jay | November 11, 2007 12:41 PM
Seven percent for Ron Paul.
Is that good?
Posted by: Bruce Y | November 11, 2007 12:46 PM
Obama not only hit it out of the park, he built a new park last night.
Hillary again, offers her: hit the Republican! while Obama offers: Let's work for Americans. I'm voting for this. I'm so tired of the tired lines of the 90s.
A life-time Dem and in the demographic that Penn says will definitely vote for Hillary..
Posted by: Elisabeth | November 11, 2007 1:51 PM
"Barack Obama is the leader America needs"
I'll answer that. He has the largest grass roots campaign of all the candidates. Some may say he's taken money from PAC and other before. His own answer is that yes, he has before and is trying to change all of the current political process. He helped write the law that now details where candidates money has come from.
He's willing to talk with the world leaders and help return us as a leader of the world, instead of a rogue. He's not hid his past and isn't afraid to face it, unlike some.
I for one refuse to get used to the idea of a Hillary / Giuliani ticket. I'll be writing someone else's name in if that happens.
Posted by: Phillip | November 11, 2007 5:09 PM
Jay, how does Obama appeal to Republicans? From what I've seen, Obama toes the Democratic Party line on almost every issue.
Posted by: Herbie H. | November 11, 2007 8:03 PM
In my opinion and as one looking from Canadian perspective Hillary Clinton is the most experienced and the best leader to lead the U.S.A forward. With Bill at her side she will deliver on her promises. She is smart and intelligent and knows world leaders well. Those who hate her are simply driven so by narrow minded bias. Americans should support her. She is the only woman to have been on the Senate Armed Services committee. And as a Senator two terms she has worked very hard. Do not underestimate her. It is time for a woman to bring about changes in the style of Governing. Hillary Clinton is the choice.
Posted by: Nazir Patel | November 11, 2007 10:17 PM
Well, Herbie, let me put it this way.
My fiscally-conservative, pro-life Catholic, dyed-in-the-wool Republican father has not voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since he cast a ballot for JFK in 1960.
While chatting with him the other night, I asked him which of the "guys on his side" (meaning the Republican candidates) he was supporting. He turned to me and said, "Actually, I like Obama."
If I hadn't already been lying down, I would have fallen out of my chair.
Posted by: dan | November 12, 2007 5:30 AM
Herbie H -- that's an easy one to answer. Obama often polls third AMONG Republican voters! He beats McCain, among Republicans. Nightmare -- the numbers I watch, e.g., pollster.com, show Obama and Hillary splitting the women among Democrats, and Obama ahead with all minorities except Hispanics.
My question is why did Obama ever trail in NH? It seems to be a state that would like his grass-roots Harvard-advised independent mind more than the gal-who-knows-how-to-twist-your-arm.
I guess there is a safety in reprise, but even the elephants were surprised that W was no return to the decency of H.W. I can't help but think of the Roger Ebert advice: don't ever pay to see the sequel.
Posted by: Ronald Loui | November 12, 2007 6:00 AM
Philip, trust me, he says, I'm trying to change the current process? Even though he's clearly wedded to it? Even though his entire presidential campaign is a textbook example of it?
Gimme a break!
Unfortunately for Obama, there aren't enough people in America as naive as you are.
Posted by: Your Worst Nightmare | November 12, 2007 7:39 AM
Good.
People want peace, not more Bush garbage,
Posted by: John Chuckman, Toronto, Canada | November 12, 2007 9:07 AM
I thought Obama skirted all the issues and Russert never asked him a follow up question after Obama dodged his earlier question. His records excuse is a joke and how was he not asked about the awful job his party is doing in IL. After all he was created by the IL/Cook COunty machine and was Emil JOnes star pupil.
Posted by: Vinny | November 12, 2007 10:41 AM
"America has been watching Obama for over a year now and sees a cardboard cut-out of a man, a media and marketing creation, a celebrity who is famous by Andy Warhol's definition of fame. They don't see a leader."
Funny how the paid talking points sound a bit stale when the numbers change.
Posted by: carrington Ward | November 12, 2007 10:50 AM
If the men over 45 don't like Hilary--it has nothing to do with hormones. It has everything to do with her perceived image of infallibility that has finally failed. What I can't understand is why so many women are supporting Hilary just because she's female. I think its great that 90 year old women tell Hillary that women weren't allowed to vote when they were born, yet before they die, they'll have the chance to vote for a woman. That's very cool to me, but Hillary is no Elizabeth the First to me. While if she wins, it will be in spite of her husband, she would never have gotten noticed beyond a senatorial level if she hadn't been First Lady--and I do think she's been a decent senator. I think our first woman president has to have charisma beyond that. Hilary's major quality is not charisma. Boxer and Feinstein have more personality than Hillary. Also, I don't believe Hillary will get a large enough mandate to make a real difference in this country. I can actually enjoy listening to Obama. When was the last time we enjoyed listening to a prez candidate? Now, that is nice.
Posted by: Shannon - Washington, DC | November 12, 2007 2:35 PM