Close race in Iowa, but Obama ahead: The Swamp
 
The Swamp
-
Posted November 19, 2007 5:32 PM
The Swamp

by John McCormick, updated

A new Washington Post/ABC News poll out this afternoon shows Sen. Barack Obama in the lead for the first time in Iowa.

The poll of likely Democratic caucus participants shows Obama at 30 percent, followed by 26 percent for Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York and 22 percent for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson follows the lead group at 11 percent.

The poll, linked here, has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points, so it is technically a tie between Obama and Clinton for the top spot in Iowa.

The Post reports that Obama is running even with Clinton among women in Iowa, drawing 32 percent to her 31 percent, despite the fact that the Clinton campaign has built its effort around attracting female voters.

Some other key paragraphs from the Post's story:

"In another positive shift for Obama, the Illinois senator is increasingly not only the first but also the second choice of Iowa voters, an important trend in a state where voters often switch their support at the last minute after sizing up the political landscape.

"Among Edwards supporters, 43 percent said they would make Obama their second choice, up from 32 percent who said so in July.

"There was also some movement among Obama supporters: in the new poll, 32 percent said they would choose Clinton second, down from 45 percent four months ago."

The second-choice is important because Democratic Party rules require that a candidate must draw at least 15 percent -- sometimes more -- to be viable in any given precinct. If a candidate fails to meet that threshold, horse-trading begins to try to win over those supporters to another candidate.

"Combining the second-choice picks of candidates outside the top three, 34 percent would select Obama, 28 percent Edwards and only 15 percent Clinton," the Post says.

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Comments

We all knew that after the Swamp's poll reporting drought of recent months, once a poll appeared that was favorable to St. Barack, the Obama operatives at the Swamp would rush to post it.


maybe those corn fed midwesterneres aren't the hayseed rubes we thought they were. The tide is changing and Hilary can kiss her cellulite inflated ass goodbye.

ANYONE but Hitlary in '08.


We all knew that after the Swamp's poll reporting drought of recent months, once a poll appeared that was favorable to St. Barack, the Obama operatives at the Swamp would rush to post it.

Posted by: Bruce | November 19, 2007 6:13 PM

Well they did ya cry-baby so shut yer pie hole!!!

Go Obama!!!


It's nice to see that people are seeing the truth through the fog of illusions created by Hillary Clinton.

Iowa will save us!


Bruce-- your comment is ridiculous. All major news outlets are reporting on this, and the Swamp would be derelict if it hadn't.

Onwards-- This poll is a result of an outstanding JJ dinner, where Obama's oratory and his campaign's flex of its organizational muscles led everyone, including influential Iowa columnist David Yepsen, to declare the Illinois Senator a winner.

Hillary's aura of inevitability is gone.


From www.realclearpolitics.com, the recent national polls of Democrats that the Swamp has managed to avoid reporting on:

Average 11/01 - 11/18 - Clinton 44.3, Obama 22.9, Edwards 12.1--Clinton +21.4
Rasmussen 11/15 - 11/18 750 LV 41 24 13 Clinton +17.0
FOX News 11/13 - 11/14 397 RV 44 23 12 Clinton +21.0
Gallup 11/11 - 11/14 485 A 48 21 12 Clinton +27.0
American Res. Group 11/09 - 11/12 600 LV 46 21 11 Clinton +25.0
Cook/RT Strategies 11/08 - 11/11 376 RV 39 22 12 Clinton +17.0
AP-Ipsos 11/05 - 11/07 474 RV 45 22 12 Clinton +23.0
NBC/WSJ 11/01 - 11/05 Adults 47 25 11 Clinton +22.0
CNN 11/02 - 11/04 467 RV 44 25 14 Clinton +19.0

Pretty consistent picture. Pretty overwhelming Clinton lead in all these polls.

No wonder the "Swamp" reporters didn't want their readers to know all this polling data.


The discerning Iowa voters can see through the polished exterior of Hillary and recognize the real deal in Barack. He really is who he says he is.


It's not a mystery that Hillary is leading in the national polls--everyone knows that! That doesn't make a difference. The nation as a whole does not represent the first states that vote in the primaries; Iowa and New Hampshire do!

The reason Obama is leading in Iowa is because they are learning who he is. Clinton is floating through the national polls on her name and phony persona.

Once Obama wins Iowa, the rest of the country will soon get it.


Bruce, since you brought up national polls, I think its important to note that 50% of the country has said that they would never vote for Hillary Clinton.

Obama cut Clinton's lead by 13 points in New Hampshire after the JJ dinner, where he had representatives from each of the 99 Iowa counties, and over 3000-- (note, 1/3 of the audience) attending for him. Clinton got out-organized and out-spoken. Obama's support in Iowa is rising, in part, because of that.

The significance of the new Iowa poll is that it is from IOWA-- the first important early state contest, and the place where voters have had the most exposure to the presidential candidates.

That's why the Swamp reported it. The Swamp is doing just fine reporting. Stop blaming the media like a Republican.


If this keeps up, the Queen B and her henchman, lead by Sydney Blumenthal, will soon unload on Barack. Just remember what the Clintoons do to folks they dislike or no longer like. Think Vince Foster, Kathleen Willey, et al.


I thought about something today...

"strength and experience are just words if you don't have the strength and experience to back them up"

how does everyone like that?


This news is sure to cause the Hillary/Bill campaign to sharpen their knives. The "I'm your girl", girl is going to show how really tough she is. She'll probably have Big Bill go to more Black churches, eating Big Macs at Iowa McDonald's, and play his sax at gigs in the big cities. Oh yeah, and look for Chelsea to start making the circuit, which will be good practice for her if the dynasty is to continue in out years, maybe after Jeb's turn.


Looks like last week's CNN infomercial loaded with plants every which way didn't produce the desired result. Post "debate" analysis by Clinton's people: Carville and Gergen didn' pan out.

Clinton agents both feeding Robert Novak information to cut him down, didn't pan it.

Lastest Iowa poll numbers, not panning out.

The Grifter is going down.


Bruce..why are soooo terrified of Obama?

John D.--Do you really believe the Clinton had their dear friend, Vince Foster murdered?

These are fair questions. From all appearances, bruce and his rnc employers would rather run against Clinton than Obama. Is it that because they think they can better rally the ditto-heads against the First Man?

And Crazy John Devola:

There have been three official investigations into Foster's death, all of which concluded that he committed suicide.[11]

The first was by the United States Park Police, in whose jurisdiction the original investigation fell. Due to Foster's position in the White House, the Federal Bureau of Investigation assisted in the investigation. Investigations by a coroner and Independent Counsel Robert B. Fiske also concluded that Foster had committed suicide. Conspiracy theories of a cover-up still persisted. After a three-year investigation, Whitewater independent counsel Kenneth Starr[12][13] released a report also concluding that the death was a suicide.

I know it's no fun to put your conspiracy theories to rest but, please keep them to your "loony" self.


CNN did the equivalent poll of New Hampshire Republicans and published the results at the same time the ABC poll of Iowa Dems came out.

Being a poll on the Republican race, the DNC Swamp didn't report it. The poll shows Mitt Romney well ahead in that state. See http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/11/19/thompson-skids-while-romney-paul-climb-in-nh-poll/


Don't get too excited Obama supporters...Hillary and her secret police have some dirt on Obama.
She can and will release it,if she continues to fall in the Iowa polls to your Zebra hero,Obama.
I think it has something to do with a young blonde chick....I just hope she's not as fat as Monica.

Paulo


Paulo,

"Zebra!?" You're a prime example of what's wrong with this country.

You need professional help to rid you of your bigotted, rascist rants.

Take off your white hood and join the modern world.


dt, frankly I do not know whether Foster committed suicide or not. This I do know:
1. The White House cleaned out his office BEFORE the police could go in it and investigate.
2. He was found with the gun still in his hand in the woods. Why is this an issue? Because every law enforcement person says when someone shoots themselves in the head, the gun goes flinging out of the hand and can travel as far as 10 to 15 away from the victim (please note, as far as means up to and not that it happens all the time, sometimes the gun is just a foot or two from the victim). But very rarely is the gun still in the shooter's hand, with finger still on the trigger.
3. The Park Police are not investigators.
4. Just because some agency says suicide, doesn't mean that is correct. A president can influence findings, no? I mean isn't that what you folks have been telling us about the intelligence on Saddam's WMD program? Or how about the ruling in the death of the third Peterson wife? Originally said to be accidental, they have re-opened investigations and there was evidence apparently to suggest otherwise.
5. There also is a long, and I do mean long, list of Clinton friends and foes who died young, died mysteriously, etc. Coincidental? Perhaps. Maybe some day we'll know, maybe someday we'll still never know.


Sadly, we know that Hillary has headed operations in the past to shut down all the women Bill slept with on her ultimate quest for power. She spent $100,000 on private investigators to destroy those unfortunate women and learned the smart way is to funnel those tax dollars in the campaign through lawyers. So she is smart enough now not to make that mistake again.

Every major opponent has found themselves in trouble due to this secret police tactics against the Clintons. From Gennifer Flowers to Monica to Kathleen Willey who was a Democrat working in the White House for heaven's sake, no one who gets in the way won't suffer.

Whether it's slipping the info to their media allies on an affair by Henry Hyde or sending someone to kill your pet and approach you on the street and talk about your children by name, nothing can stop the Clinton Mob. Nothing.

Obama being a more or less decent fellow is trying to put up resistance, but he's probably made a mistake along the way.

Does anyone really believe that if he wins Iowa and leads New Hampshire threatening to turn the tide this information won't come out?

As an independent I don't see much difference on the issues for the main candidates but I'm actually starting to feel sorry for Obama.

We all know it's coming. And as before, we know Hillary is directing it.


Paulo, I have to agree with Doug here. Calling Obama a "zebra" is beyond rational and belief. In fact, it is downright sickening and putrid.


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