by William E. Gibson
Florida more than ever has become Rudy Giuliani’s firewall in the early primaries to try to prevent rivals from overcoming his lead in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.
Polls show Mitt Romney leading in Iowa and New Hampshire, prompting Rudy’s campaign team to try to downplay the earliest contests and look ahead to Florida for a victory and a big bunch of delegates on Jan. 29.
As expected, the Republican National Committee punished Florida last week for violating party rules by planning such an early primary. Unlike the Democratic National Party, which stripped Florida of all its delegates to the 2008 convention, national Republicans took away only half of the state’s GOP delegates.
That still leaves a sizable 57 Florida delegates. New Hampshire also lost half its delegates for moving up its primary, leaving it with only 12. Iowa, which plans to hold its caucuses on Jan. 3, does not allot delegates until later.
Florida Republicans decided to maximize the impact of the remaining number by creating a winner-take-all primary, which gives Giuliani, Romney and their rivals a reason to campaign in the Sunshine State.
``We believe whoever wins Florida will have a delegate lead going into Feb. 5,’’ Giuliani’s campaign manager, Michael DuHaime, told reporters today.
Feb. 5 is when California and a slew of other states hold primaries that will determine more than a thousand delegates. We may know the nominees on that night.
Romney’s best hope is to win in Iowa and New Hampshire and benefit from a burst of news coverage that helps him raise money and build support in Florida leading into the Feb. 5 states.
Giuliani, the former New York mayor, has a lead and natural connections to Florida because of the state’s many New York transplants. He hopes to get past the very early contests and roll up a big victory in Florida that would carry him into February.
Michigan, which plans to vote Jan. 15, and South Carolina, with a primary set for Jan. 19, could complicate these strategies.
The latest Florida poll shows Giuliani running well ahead of Republican rivals in the state with 36 percent, followed by Romney with 19 percent. Fred Thompson, who campaigned extensively in Florida, plunged in the poll to fifth place with 8 percent.
The telephone poll of 800 registered Florida voters was conducted Nov. 4 to 7 by Schroth, Eldon & Associates and the Polling Company for the St. Petersburg Times and other news media.
Among Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton has consolidated her lead in Florida, the poll shows.
Here are the numbers:
DEMOCRATS
Hillary Rodham Clinton 48 percent
Barack Obama 24 percent
John Edwards 8 percent
Joe Biden 4 percent
REPUBLICANS
Rudy Giuliani 36 percent
Mitt Romney 19 percent
John McCain 12 percent
Mike Huckabee 9 percent
Fred Thompson 8 percent
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