by Mark Silva
It may be “black Friday’’ at the malls today, but it’s six Fridays out from Iowa.
With a countdown to the January caucuses and primaries – with the Democratic contest boiling down to “a four-letter word, Iowa,’’ and the Republican race “remarkably fluid’’ – the Associated Press today offers a walk-through of the early-caucusing and voting states in presidential nominating contests that will reach a crescendo on Feb. 5.
“For now, the Democratic presidential campaign has become a four-letter word. Iowa,’’ report the AP’s Nedra Pickler and Beth Fouhy, sizing up the states for the Democratic field. And the AP’s Liz Sidoti and Libby Quaid write that “the Republican presidential race is still remarkably fluid less than six weeks before voting begins.’’
This is their state-by-state assessment of the state of play, six Fridays out from the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses:
From combined AP reports of the party contests in each state:
IOWA -- Jan. 3 caucuses
Democrats: (45 pledged delegates)
State polls show a tight race among Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards with the rest of the field lagging behind. But polling is notoriously difficult among potential caucus participants, making the true state of play very difficult to gauge.
Clinton's strategists believe a key source of potential strength lies with women who have never attended one of the state's 1,784 precinct caucuses. The campaign is building a "buddy system" to match experienced caucus participants with the novices, and is offering transportation and child care.
The Obama campaign has a similar strategy with young voters, connecting them with veteran caucus goers. The "Barack Stars" are high school seniors supporting the Illinois senator — they can vote in caucuses if they'll turn 18 by the time of the general election Nov. 4 — and he has strong support among college students.
Edwards is concentrating on a strategy that served him well four years ago when he finished a close second in Iowa — bringing out the reliable caucus goers, particularly in rural areas. He's the only Democratic candidate to have visited all 99 Iowa counties, and the 2004 vice presidential nominee has gotten some key labor support here.
Trailing the front-runners in polling and fundraising, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and Sens. Joe Biden and Chris Dodd are all banking on a surprise showing in Iowa.
Richardson has sent mail to Iowa voters touting his support of gun rights, while Biden has secured more endorsements from Iowa elected officials than any Democrat except Clinton. Dodd has temporarily moved his family to Iowa to demonstrate his commitment to the state, enrolling his daughter in kindergarten at a Des Moines public school.
Republicans: (37 pledged delegates)
The race is still Mitt Romney's to lose but has turned more competitive as voters begin to focus. Many Republicans still are undecided, and a lot of those who have picked a candidate say they are willing to switch.
Romney had held a double-digit lead in polls for months here after spending some $4 million on advertising. By far, he has the strongest organization and the most money in a state where both are essential. But Romney's advantage now is threatened by Mike Huckabee, a deft communicator with a rock-solid record opposing gun control, abortion rights and gay marriage. A Southern Baptist minister, he lacks money but his message is resonating with voters craving a true conservative. He just started running TV ads on cable.
Rudy Giuliani, a thrice-married abortion-rights and gay-rights backer, has made strides in recent months in part by a direct mail and radio advertising campaign telling voters about his conservative approach to spending and security. But Iowa clearly is not a priority state for him, and many Republicans believe his support here has reached its ceiling. Thompson recently started running a ton of TV ads billing him as the most consistent conservative in the race, but he has not caught fire. McCain is a bit player here.
Immigration is a key issue.
* * *
NEW HAMPSHIRE — Jan. 8 primaries
Democrats: (22 pledged delegates)
Clinton's once-commanding lead in New Hampshire has diminished somewhat in recent weeks, but it's still in the range of 11 to 15 percentage points. Her strategy here is to build a New Hampshire firewall that would withstand an unpredictable outcome in Iowa.
Clinton has traveled to each of New Hampshire's 10 counties and has secured the backing of most of the Democratic establishment. The campaign has made more than 250,000 phone calls to voters.
Obama has started advertising in New Hampshire and is courting Democrats as well as the independents who can participate in the party's primary. His campaign stages house-to-house canvassing and phone banks every night and weekend, with 800 people knocking on doors one weekend in November. "When people begin to decide, we're going to be at their doors," said Obama campaign manager David Plouffe.
Edwards is in a distant third place here. He has more than 60 staff on the ground and bought air time touting his health care plan in commercials that were already airing in Iowa.
Richardson has sent field aides from New Hampshire to Iowa, but brought in some national staff to work here. Dodd, a senator from nearby Connecticut, is counting on his New England roots to help woo New Hampshire voters his way. Biden has a very limited campaign operation here.
Republicans: (24 pledged delegates; Republican Party penalties will cut the number to 12)
Romney, the former governor of a neighboring state, has a vacation home here and has poured $4.5 million into advertising. He has an edge, but the dynamic could quickly change.
Giuliani, a Northeasterner, is playing to win after months of focusing elsewhere. He now views New Hampshire as the early voting state where he's most likely to come out on top. He's made numerous recent visits, flooded mailboxes with literature, run lots of radio ads, made his TV ad debut in the state, and is courting moderates and independents.
John McCain has aired nearly $1 million in commercials emphasizing his military service to capitalize on signs of a campaign rebound. While he remains a favorite among hard-core supporters from his 2000 win here, he can't count on independents this time.
Ron Paul could be a force if his anti-war stance and libertarian bent continue to resonate in the "Live Free or Die" state. He's running ads and just raised a hefty $4.3 million in one day. Fred Thompson isn't much of a factor here, nor is Huckabee. Both could be if they place strongly in Iowa.
Independents who can vote in either party's primary are a wild card. So are the many undecided Republicans. Spending issues and taxes dominate.
* * *
MICHIGAN — Jan. 15 primaries
Democrats: (128 pledged delegates, likely to be stripped by the national party for holding a January primary counter to party rules)
The parties wanted a state-run primary on Jan. 15, and the Michigan Supreme Court gave the go-ahead this week. It could be irrelevant to the candidates, however. They've signed a pledge to skip the state if it goes ahead and holds the contest that early — against the early-primary rules of the national party.
Republicans: (57 pledged delegates; penalties will cut the number to 30)
The contest is wide open. Michigan moved its primary early seeking more clout in picking a president, but most candidates have given it short shrift.
Giuliani is in strong contention, but he doesn't have much of an organization to back up that support. Romney emphasizes his deep Michigan roots and visits frequently. He grew up in the state, and his father was governor. McCain won Michigan eight years ago.
The economy and gas-mileage standards are main issues in an automotive state with a high unemployment
* * *
NEVADA — Jan. 19 caucuses
Democrats: (25 pledged delegates)
Clinton is far-and-away the leader in Nevada with double the support of Obama in a recent poll.
The Clinton and Obama campaigns have been working with experienced Iowa caucus organizers, developing a precinct-by-precinct system similar to Iowa's. Edwards moved staff from Nevada to Iowa over the summer, but recently has added organizers back to his Nevada operation.
The campaigns are awaiting a coveted endorsement expected in early December — that of the 60,000-member Culinary Union, which represents most employees on the Las Vegas strip.
Republicans: (31 pledged delegates)
This Western state is a wild-card. Nevada wanted more say in choosing the nominee, but the candidates haven't given it much love. Geographically, the state is far from other more prominent early voting states, and campaigns privately grumble that disorganization has hurt caucus planning.
The candidates visit sporadically, and usually only to pocket campaign cash from big donors on the Las Vegas strip.
Polling shows Giuliani, Romney and Thompson competitive.
* * *
SOUTH CAROLINA — Jan. 26 primaries
Democrats: (45 pledged delegates)
Clinton holds a wide lead in most polls, and the campaign is working to reinforce her position in South Carolina amid an expected strong challenge from Obama. He is running to become the first black president, and blacks make up about 50 percent of Democratic primary voters in the state.
Campaign officials note two major advantages for Clinton in the state: her husband, former President Bill Clinton, and her strength among older voters and women, no matter what skin color. Former President Clinton remains popular among blacks and has campaigned extensively for his wife here.
Obama has been advertising on three dozen black radio stations across the state — the most recent spot features him talking about growing up without his father.
Edwards, who was born in South Carolina, and won the state's primary in 2004. But he's been polling a distant third this time. This week he became the first Democratic presidential candidate to advertise on South Carolina television, touting his roots.
Republicans: (47 pledged delegates; party penalties will cut the number to 24)
It's a toss-up. Thompson, Romney and Giuliani are duking it out for the lead as McCain gives strong chase in the sole early voting state where all four are competing hard.
South Carolina is a must-win for Thompson the Tennessean. His Southern style hasn't translated into support, but it still could. He just started running a biographical ad to introduce himself. Romney has seen his support climb after spending about $2.3 million on TV ads. A Mormon, he's gaining ground even though white Christian evangelicals dominate the electorate.
Giuliani's rocky personal life and left-leaning positions on abortion and gay rights haven't crippled him. Giuliani attracts support along the state's moderate coastline and has run a slew of radio ads on fiscal and security issues. McCain, who lost a nasty primary to George W. Bush in 2000, has worked for years to prevent a repeat. He wants South Carolina to be the second stop on his comeback tour. His support comes from many elected officials like popular Sen. Lindsey Graham and loyalists from his first run. His Iraq war advocacy and his Navy service during Vietnam earn him respect in a state with a large military population.
The Iraq war, terrorism, and torture are hot issues.
* * *
FLORIDA — Jan. 29 primaries
Democrats: (185 delegates, also stripped for violating party rules with an early primary)
Florida falls under the candidates' pledge not to campaign in states that violate national party rules in scheduling their nominating contests. Florida plans to hold a primary a week earlier than allowed.
The candidates have not been holding campaign events in Florid, but still have been aggressively raising money there.
Republicans: (114 pledged delegates; Republican Party penalties will cut the number to 57)
Giuliani dominates in this state that's home to many retired New Yorkers. The question is whether he can sustain a series of losses before reaching this big-prize state — and whether he will have enough money to blanket Florida's costly media markets.
Once competitive, Thompson has tanked here. Romney, whose Florida team includes several backers of popular former Gov. Jeb Bush, has made inroads in recent weeks largely because he's been the only Republican on the air; he's spent $2 million on ads. McCain still has a measure of support.
Immigration and border security are high-profile issues, but it's unclear how they play with Cuban immigrants who populate South Florida. Other prominent topics include oil drilling and energy policy.
* * *
MEGA TUESDAY — Feb. 5 primaries and caucuses, as many as 25 states
Democrats: (at least 1,370 delegates)
With 370 pledged delegates, California remains the biggest prize. Clinton maintains a wide lead in California polls, and has launched "Hillcorps," an extensive volunteer outreach effort. Obama is holding "Camp Obama" training for volunteer organizers in California and in other Feb. 5 states such as Georgia, Missouri, Alabama and Illinois, his home state.
Clinton is expected to cruise in her home state of New York and neighboring New Jersey. Besides the large delegate states, Obama's campaign is focusing on caucus states like Colorado and Minnesota where local organizations are necessary for victory.
Edwards does not have staff in Feb. 5 states, banking that a win in Iowa can propel him to victory elsewhere, particularly Southern states such as Arkansas and his home state of North Carolina.
Richardson is counting on strong support in New Mexico and other Western states, including Colorado, Arizona and Wyoming. But he'll have to beat expectations elsewhere to make it that far.
Republicans: (at least 995 delegates)
The biggest question looming over every candidate but Romney is how to survive to this point and still be able to afford to run the millions of dollars in TV ads it will take to compete in this de facto national primary day when 19 states hold contests. Retail politicking will be replaced by made-for-TV events in airport hangars in several states a day to maximize "free media" — and reach voters through their local news.
Romney already has poured at least $17.5 million of his personal fortune into his bid and has indicated he's willing to spend more. He's given some attention to more right-leaning Feb. 5 states like West Virginia. Giuliani has been looking toward this day — and California, New York and Illinois in particular — but his is an untested strategy that requires big money to compete in extraordinarily expensive media markets in multiple states. Unlike Romney, he doesn't have nearly as much money available.
Thompson has more limited resources but hasn't ignored this crop of states. McCain and Huckabee can only hope they win early and benefit from an opening of financial floodgates — or that they win enough first-voting states to seem the all-but-certain nominee as this day approaches.







Comments
The fact that even in Nevada there is no mention of Ron Paul shows this piece was lazily crafted.
Posted by: Mark Rushmore | November 23, 2007 12:44 PM
It would appear that the Republicans are trying real hard to shoot themselves in the foot by cancelling delagates in Florida. If I didn't know any better, I would think that the Republican Party was trying to help the Democrats. Why don't the Republicans just let any state position themselves? Talk about states rights issues as a Republican issue going bad real fast. Wow!!!!
Posted by: David | November 23, 2007 2:02 PM
Iowa a 'four-letter word,' Republican race still 'fluid'?
I would like to pause and give thanks on this glorious holiday weekend to some of our much-maligned friends in the Bush Administration and their allies in the Republic Party and their "fluid" race in Iowa. We give them a hard time here, but I think we should take the time to appreciate the blessings they have given America and the world.
So, without further ado, here is the list of Republicans I would like to thank this holiday season:
-Thanks to ALBERTO GONZALES for being an inspiration to amnesiacs everywhere:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIgbJSrIvWc
-To KARL ROVE, for proving that you don't need a college degree to single-handedly destroy an entire country and political party.
-To BILL O'REILLY for slaking the nation's lust with falafel-based erotic literature:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=edYeqzTJci4
On a related note, thanks to FOX "NEWS" for all the free porn:
http://bravenewfilms.org/blog/18865-fox-news-porn
-To SCOOTER LIBBY for saving the nation from nuclear anti-proliferation CIA agents, and for stymying those busybodies who would prosecute Al Qaeda.
-To DICK CHENEY for valiantly doing his part in the shooting war on flightless birds and Republican lawyers:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pR7CH9zvD6s
-To JOHN MCCAIN for placing his love of our Commander-in-Chief ahead of his own presidential ambitions.
-To RUDY GIULIANI for freeing our first responders from the burdensome big-government requirements of working radio equipment and a usable emergency response center.
-To FRED THOMPSON for being the reincarnation of Ronald Reagn's walking corpse.
-To MITT ROMNEY for proving that anyone can grow up to run for President, no matter how many positions they take on any given issue.
-To MICHAEL BROWN for doing such a heck of a job.
-To COLIN POWELL for being a good soldier against his own better judgment.
-To SCOTT MCCLELLAN for being such an accomplished liar that he can't remember if the lies he told about the lies he told about the lies he was told are true or not.
-To DONALD RUMSFELD for daring to explore the great unknown unknown.
-To MONICA GOODLING for showing us why Regent University is still a bad idea.
-To PAUL BREMER for not losing his Presidential Medal of Freedom on the way back from the ceremony.
-To the Conservative Justices of the Supreme Court, for placing human loyalty above the arbitrary dictates of the law.
-To Senator LARRY CRAIG for value creation to the American economy by turning public restrooms into tourist attractions....i. e. Republican National Convention, Minneapolis 2008, bring a "friend":
http://s86.photobucket.com/albums/k88/Duke_S/?action=view¤t=Convention_Logo.jpg
-To Senator DAVID VITTER for his continued support of the world's oldest profession and for his love of diapers.
-To former Senator RICK SANTORUM for adding a wonderful new phrase to our vocabulary "man on dog".
-And finally, to GEORGE W BUSH, for proving that even a cocaine-addled dry-drunk, draft-dodging sociopath can grow up to be President--as long as they have the right connections.
Posted by: John E | November 23, 2007 2:04 PM
I for one, am glad that Ron Paul isn't even on the scope in Nevada. It may be the home of sin city, but it must be doing something good.
Posted by: David | November 23, 2007 2:04 PM
For the first time in the history of America. The life expectancy of today's children is less than that of their parents. This is catastrophic. And our infant mortality is equal to that of a third world country. Current U.S. adult life expectancy is down from #1 to #42. And dropping fast. These facts are what is known as EXTINCTION! indicators. These are the early signs of the final phase of the EXTINCTION of the American people.
You have to take the profit motive out of health care delivery. The profit motive does not work with health care. Or any other essential public service like police, and fire. The sooner everyone faces this truth. The sooner you will be able to adopt a real solution to the problem. The days of paying for health care out of pocket are at an end. Just like the mob days of paying for protection out of pocket came to an end.
HR 676 is the way to go. Single payer Universal National Health Care For All. Medicare for all. Accept no substitutes. The sooner you face this. The sooner you begin to heal the Cancer of private for profit medicine that is destroying this entire society. Other developed countries realized this years ago. It's a no-brainer now. See sickocure.org
Money, greed, and the profit motive has just decimated health care in America. And killed, and injured millions needlessly. Just for profit. But that is what large amounts of money, greed, and a lust for power always does. No one is immune from this corrupting power. The smart ones know this. And avoid letting them-self be put in compromising positions. But that is easier said. Than done. And very few succeed.
Most in the US go into medicine primarily to become wealthy. That is who the medical schools mostly choose. Most of the medical schools faculty are in bed with the drug companies, and others. And like the story of Dr. Faustus. They end up selling their souls. One compromise at a time. Until Lucifer owns them.
In medicine. Compromised care means. Injury, disability, and death. It's sad really. But HR 676 can fix this disgrace. Like it has in other developed countries. The only question is. How many more millions will be hurt, injured, and killed. And how many more of your children will die before their time. Before we fix this disgrace of private for profit health care in America.
I realize there will be a few people that have what they believe is good health care coverage. Who will want to opt out of a single payer system like HR 676. But let me remind you we rank # 37 in quality of health care for all. Down from #1. Never the less. A few opting out is not a problem. As long as all other Americans are automatically covered at birth through life. Unless they choose to opt out of HR 676. The government takes out 1.4% from your paycheck now for Medicare. All they have to do is substitute for HR 676 what they now take out of your paychecks for private health insurance. Remember, we already spend more on health care than any other country in the world. Right Now. We are being ripped off. And raped.
The SCHIP program is a desperately needed program for Americas children. But with the impending EXTINCTION of Americas children. And their current catastrophic health care condition. SCHIP needs to be extended to cover all of Americas children, immediately. Parents should have no hesitations, or financial worries about seeking medical care for their children. Whenever they have any concerns about their children's health. Especially in the richest country in the world. I would submit that any President, or politician that fails to do this for the children. Betrays their most solemn oath to protect the American people. Especially when you consider that all other developed countries have done this. And that we are the richest country in the world.
So get on it America. Get it done. You have been doing great over the past several months. Keep it up. And step it up. You have to force it, and take it. It's the right fight, and the right thing to do. Now is the time... Take no prisoners.
Posted by: jacksmith | November 23, 2007 9:18 PM
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama remain the Democratic front-runners. If Edwards can't win in Iowa, he will have to drop out of the race.
Posted by: Sheldon | November 23, 2007 11:23 PM
To John E
I would have included you in evaluating this think piece but, based on your blog, can see your cognitive skills don't include the ability to think.
Also, GW did not dodge the draft like Clinton. GW served in the Air National Guard. You see, there was something called the Cold War going on then as well. GW served in a fighter interceptor capacity to scramble and intercept Soviet Bombers before they could get to the US. If you think this is such a "safe" way to serve, why don't you go out and strap a fighter aircraft to your jello based spine and see what happens?
All the best
Greg Hollister
Colonel, USAF, Retired
I am sending you a copy of a think piece I wrote for the Chicago Tribune and
Denver Post in hopes that you will publish it as well. I also sent it to every state in the Union for which I had an address for their newspapers.
I will be going to Louisiana next week and hopefully visit Governor Elect Jindal as well as the town of Jena to get first hand information from the people of Jena on the trial of those who are called the “Jena Six”.
All the best
Greg "Holly" Hollister
Dear Ms. Zuckman
Jill
I left my 6 figure plus job 21 September for several reasons. A major
contributor was to allow myself the flexibility to support Fred Thompson's
campaign for President (I have no official affiliation with the campaign).
I was wondering if you would be so kind as to comment on the think piece
below. I have sent it to all the County Chairs, Republican and Democrat, in
Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
I am working to go to Iowa the week of 10 December to campaign in general
and tell people why I am supporting Fred Thompson. The method is to put
forth the hypothetical scenario of what I would do if I were President.
One thing I have been thinking about lately is the US Congress issuing a
condemnation of Turkey for genecide against Armenians in the World War I
era. I find this troubling for a couple of reasons. One is that we need
Turkish support to help stabilize Iraq but the most important view involves
our own hypocrisy. Specifically, we as a nation attempted genecide against
Native Americans and our nation almost destroyed itslef over the scourge of
slavery. To me, it seems hypocritical that we would denounce the actions of
Turkey when we have these two huge spectres of injustice hanging prominently
in the closet of our history.
Before I get to my main point, please allow me to provide some background.
I served 20 years in the US Air Force, retiring as a full Colonel. As a
member of the profession of arms, my lineage comes directly from Native
Americans who fought bravely for their people. It also comes from the likes
of Crispus Attucks, felled at the Boston Massacre, the 54th all Black
Regiment from Massachusetts during the Civil War, the Buffalo Soldiers of
the untamed West, and the Tusekegee Airmen of WW II.
Our nation continually broke promises to the Sioux, Cheyenne, and who can
forget the trail of tears for the Cherokee Nation. Lincoln made a promise
of 40 acres and a mule to freed slaves after the Civil War but that promise
faded into oblivion after Lincoln's death.
While nothing we do can erase our attempt at eliminating Native Americans or
the bondage of a race, we need to attempt to honor promises made in the
past. To that end, I would propose the following:
Our Military Services are , or will be, privatizing housing projects at our
military installations. I propose that the BIA (Bureau of Indian Affairs)
and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, be given the charter to
work with the DoD and formalize a strategy that will establish a JV with
shareholders being Native Americans and Black Americans who are descendants
of slaves. This JV will be given a 10% advantage to compete for, and be
recipients, of contracts to provide such privatization. Shareholders will
receive disbursements based on the decision of Board of Directors of the JV,
which will be made up of Native Americans and descendants of slaves only.
The amount of funds that shareholders receive may, in the end, be miniscule..
However, we should implement this approach, or something like it, before we
rebuke the Turkish government for acts committed against Armenians. As
scripture states we should "pull the plank from our own eye before condeming
those with specks in their eyes." This is just part of a healing process we
should go through as a nation to admit wrong doing to these people's and
move forward, together, to face the difficult tasks of fighting the war on
terror, restructuring entitlements, and thwarting the proliferation of
weapons of mass destruction, to name a few.
I would be very grateful to hear what you think about this proposal, and the
think piece entitled "If I Were President" embedded below.
All the Best
Greg "Holly" Hollister
Colonel, USAF, Retired
American First
6730 Connaught Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80908
719-359-2185
I was born in Hornell, New York; raised in Bishopville, New York; and
attended school at Arkport Central, graduating in 1974. I attended the USAF
Academy, graduating in 1978, and went on to serve 20 years on active duty in
the USAF, retiring as a full Colonel. During my years of service I resided
in, or had duty in, the follow states: Colorado, Delaware, Texas,
California, Mississippi, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Hawaii, Arizona, New
Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Alabama, Virginia,
Pennsylvania, Idaho, Missouri, Maine, Florida and Oregon.
I have put together a strategy and staff in the attached "If I Were
President" document. To that end I was wondering if you might share it with
folks in the county to get their comments and input. I will be sending this
out to all the county chairs in the states in which I resided, or had duty,
in an attempt to get these ideas out there and part of the debate for this
election.
Please do pass this on and request folks respond to me at
greg_hollister@msn.com. Of course I would very much like to hear what your
thoughts are as well.
All the Best
Greg "Holly" Hollister, Colonel, USAF, Retired
If I Were President
During the budget battle of 1995, I acquired a copy of the CBO grading of
the Federal Budget. I learned that MEDICARE and MEDICAID actually increased
above the inflation rate and that Clinton, Gore, Daschle and Gephardt lied
to the American people about so called ³cuts² and ³gutting² of these
programs. In the meantime, entitlements have continued to grow at a rate
that will essentially leave no discretionary spending for Defense by the
year 2020. In parallel, Social Security will become insolvent as the baby
boomer generation retires and the increased reliance on foreign oil and its
rising prices will continue to remain a national security issue while it
constrains growth, and possibly generates a recession on the Global
Economy..
All of this occurs while we are fighting a Global War on Terror. While this
looks pretty gloomy at first blush, if we take these issues on directly, and
with a sense of urgency, we will overcome and create an even stronger, more
vibrant America that continues to lead the world in peace, security and
prosperity. How will we do this?
First, we need to continue to take the fight to the terrorists but we need
to do it in a balanced, strategic manner. I earned dual degrees at the USAF
Academy one in management and the other in economics - and served 20 years
on active duty in the USAF. There are three critical components to
international policy with which we have to work: political, military and
economic This model was studied extensively in each mid level and senior
service school I completed Marine Corps Command and Staff College, Air
Command and Staff College, Armed Forces Staff College, Air War College and
Army War College. Our strategy has been over-reliant on use of Force without
sufficient leverage of Political and Economic components of our strength.
This needs to change.
We need to get NATO (especially France and Turkey), Russia, Saudi Arabia,
and Kuwait directly engaged in stabilizing Iraq. We need to leverage
Political and Economic strength to make this a reality. We should leverage
requirements such as the Air Force Tanker Fleet Replacement Program (KCX) to
convince NATO to participate with troop and envoy placement in Iraq.
Essentially, we give up some market share to the European based EADS
Aircraft manufacturer in exchange for a significant number of NATO troops
and envoys. A deal could be struck to guarantee that half of the tanker
fleet will be acquired from EADS North America, with a guarantee that the
Aircraft will be constructed in the United States, and that NATO would
provide 45,000 ground troops and 50 additional envoys to work in provinces
within Iraq. France is part of the EADS consortium and would benefit from
that business deal as well and would send a contingent of 10,000 troops in
exchange for this business proposition.
Turkey should be heavily consulted in an attempt to better understand how to
best deal with sectarian differences in the region. For example, Attaturk
conceived and implemented an approach that repatriated Christians to Greece
from Turkey and Muslims from Greece to Turkey to minimize ethnic violence
and help unify both countries. A similar approach should be studied,
modified and implemented in the region.
While Russia has been cooperative with control and destruction of weapons
grade nuclear material, we can do more to assist them financially for a
Russian troop presence in Iraq. Expansion of efforts the Nuclear Threat
Initiative has begun, under the leadership of former Senator Sam Nunn and
Senator Richard Lugar, in the form of financial compensation should be
increased. In addition, sharing of missile defense technology with Russia
should be used as an incentive for Russia to bring troops into Iraq.
Finally, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait should be expected and requested to provide
troops as well from a geographic juxtaposition perspective as well as an
understanding of the culture. These initiatives would provide a good start
in balancing our approach across all three incentive areas political,
military and economic - all the while improving the rotation rate for our
troops and getting skin in the game from these countries and organizations
for a successful transition to Iraqi provided security in the country.
With regard to entitlements, we need to do a rapid evolutionary change to
the current structure. When I was a student at the Army War College in
1993, I did my own analysis and discovered that if MEDICARE and MEDICAID
were incorporated into the Federal Employee Health Benefit Program, that
savings up to $956billion could be realized in as little as 4 years. As
part of my analysis prior to implementing change, I would sit down with the
Secretary of Health and Human Services and the Health Care Finance
Administration, and develop a realistic, phased approach to achieve such a
goal.
Concurrently, I would use the model of Health Savings Accounts implemented
at Whole Foods as a means to provide affordable Health Care to citizens in a
competitive market place. Health Savings Accounts are owned by the
individual, or family, and are carried into the next year if not spent in
the current medical year. These accounts, coupled with catastrophic
insurance for things like cancer, diabetes treatment, and heart attacks,
ensure that individual savings are not wiped out while providing a market
based approach to health care overall. This approach provides an economic
incentive for citizens to save, providing additional cash in the economy for
investment and, in the end, overall growth. This restructuring would allow
for reallocation of treasury funds for recapitalization of our defense
capabilities as well as our roads and bridges.
Social Security will become insolvent in the not so distant future. We need
to make some tough choices here from indexing, to means testing to partial
privatization. This must be done to ensure programs like Social Security
Disability are there as a safety net for all Americans who need that net.
This also means that if someone is making $200,000, or more, in retirement
income, they should not and would not receive Social Security benefits. In
the long run, partial privatization allows for the growth of real wealth on
the part of future generations and gradually weans people off the current
system. Again, this allows for revenue to be reallocated to funding
Defense, investment in our roads and bridges, and buying down the national
debt.
Energy independence is key to all this. France decided in 1973 to become
energy independent and is well on its way with 80 percent of its energy
being produced by nuclear power plants. The United States needs to take a
heterogeneous mix approach to become energy independent. This includes
revitalizing the use of nuclear energy as well as harvesting current oil,
oil shale, and coal deposits and marrying them up with clean burning
technology. We also need to harness renewable energy such as wind and
solar. Employment of superconductive nanotechnology material will reduce
loss in transmission media and make power lines more efficient, reducing
loss there, as well as improving the power generation capability of solar
cells.
To effectively fight the Global War on Terror, we need to return to more of
a helping hand presence rather than one of domination around the globe
particularly in Southwest Asia. Increasing the presence of other countries,
as mentioned earlier, and repatriating Iraq will do this. While eliminating
our presence in toto in the near term is not realistic, there is much that
can be done to reduce our footprint, ergo the perception that we are an
occupation force. Concurrent with the drawdown in Southwest Asia from an
overt perspective, we need to increase our covert and clandestine
capabilities in Southwest Asia and around the globe so that we make informed
decisions on hard evidence rather than someone¹s arbitrary shaping of the
data. In order to do this we need an overall increase in Defense and
National Agencies from 4.3% of GDP up to approximately 5.1% to begin with
and then scale up or down as we move forward. As part of this process, in
addition to restructuring outlays, we need to keep tax cuts in place and
reduce the rate of growth in government.
In order to implement such an approach I would need a strong team in place
with the understanding of the problems and a will to see things through to a
successful conclusion. To that end I would staff certain key positions with
the following people:
Special Advisors to the President
Former Senator Bob Dole, Senator and Medal of Honor recipient Dan Inouye,
Senator John Warner, Senator Joe Biden
Vice President former Congressman JC Watts
National Security Advisor former Senator Sam Nunn
Chief of Staff former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs and Secretary of State
Colin Powell
Secretary of State Senator Richard Lugar
Secretary of Defense Senator John McCain
Assistant Secretary of Defense Senator Jim Webb
Secretary of the Navy Congressman Gene Taylor
Secretary of the Army - former Chief of Staff of the Army General Eric
Shinseki
Secretary of the Air Force former Chief of Staff of the Air Force General
Ron Fogleman
Secretary of Commerce former Governor Mitt Romney
Secretary of Health and Human Services former Governor Dick Lamm
Ambassador to the UN former Senator and Medal of Honor Recipient Bob
Kerrey
Ambassador to Iraq - Governor Bill Richardson
Veterans Administration former Senator Max Cleland
Director of INS Congressman Tom Tancredo
Secretary of the Treasury Congressman Ron Paul
Attorney General former Senator Fred Thompson
Secretary of Energy Congresswoman Heather Wilson
Secretary of Domestic Policy former Senator Rick Santorum
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development former Governor Mike Huckabee
Department of Homeland Security Mayor Rudy Giuliani
Secretary of Agriculture Congressman Randy Kuhl
Secretary of the Interior General Norman Schwarzkopf
Department of Transportation Colonel Ed Houle
Federal Aviation Administration Colonel Al Overbey
Secretary of Labor First Lady of California Maria Shriver Schwarzenegger
Bureau of Indian Affairs Former Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell
US Trade Representative Congressman Duncan Hunter
Special Envoy to NATO General Wesley Clark
Office of Management and Budget - Bob Henry, COO of Harris Corporation
EPA Ralph Nader
Department of Education Dr Everett R. Hollister
Office of Drug Control Policy Alan Keyes
National Reconnaissance Office W. David Thompson, former CEO and Owner of
Spectrum Astro
While this in no way is a complete strategy or staff, it is a start in the
right direction and is a team comprised of seasoned personnel in each area -
people who care about doing the right thing, the right way, in a manner that
is in the best interests of the United States of America.
Gregory S. Hollister, Colonel, USAF, Retired
6730 Connaught Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80908
719-359-2185
Posted by: Colonel (R) Greg Hollister | November 24, 2007 6:10 AM
For the first time in the history of America. The life expectancy of today's children is less than that of their parents. This is catastrophic. And our infant mortality is equal to that of a third world country. Current U.S. adult life expectancy is down from #1 to #42. And dropping fast. These facts are what is known as EXTINCTION! indicators. These are the early signs of the final phase of the EXTINCTION of the American people.
You have to take the profit motive out of health care delivery. The profit motive does not work with health care. Or any other essential public service like police, and fire. The sooner everyone faces this truth. The sooner you will be able to adopt a real solution to the problem. The days of paying for health care out of pocket are at an end. Just like the mob days of paying for protection out of pocket came to an end.
HR 676 is the way to go. Single payer Universal National Health Care For All. Medicare for all. Accept no substitutes. The sooner you face this. The sooner you begin to heal the Cancer of private for profit medicine that is destroying this entire society. Other developed countries realized this years ago. It's a no-brainer now. See sickocure.org
Money, greed, and the profit motive has just decimated health care in America. And killed, and injured millions needlessly. Just for profit. But that is what large amounts of money, greed, and a lust for power always does. No one is immune from this corrupting power. The smart ones know this. And avoid letting them-self be put in compromising positions. But that is easier said. Than done. And very few succeed.
Most in the US go into medicine primarily to become wealthy. That is who the medical schools mostly choose. Most of the medical schools faculty are in bed with the drug companies, and others. And like the story of Dr. Faustus. They end up selling their souls. One compromise at a time. Until Lucifer owns them.
In medicine. Compromised care means. Injury, disability, and death. It's sad really. But HR 676 can fix this disgrace. Like it has in other developed countries. The only question is. How many more millions will be hurt, injured, and killed. And how many more of your children will die before their time. Before we fix this disgrace of private for profit health care in America.
I realize there will be a few people that have what they believe is good health care coverage. Who will want to opt out of a single payer system like HR 676. But let me remind you we rank # 37 in quality of health care for all. Down from #1. Never the less. A few opting out is not a problem. As long as all other Americans are automatically covered at birth through life. Unless they choose to opt out of HR 676. The government takes out 1.4% from your paycheck now for Medicare. All they have to do is substitute for HR 676 what they now take out of your paychecks for private health insurance. Remember, we already spend more on health care than any other country in the world. Right Now. We are being ripped off. And raped.
The SCHIP program is a desperately needed program for Americas children. But with the impending EXTINCTION of Americas children. And their current catastrophic health care condition. SCHIP needs to be extended to cover all of Americas children, immediately. Parents should have no hesitations, or financial worries about seeking medical care for their children. Whenever they have any concerns about their children's health. Especially in the richest country in the world. I would submit that any President, or politician that fails to do this for the children. Betrays their most solemn oath to protect the American people. Especially when you consider that all other developed countries have done this. And that we are the richest country in the world.
So get on it America. Get it done. You have been doing great over the past several months. Keep it up. And step it up. You have to force it, and take it. It's the right fight, and the right thing to do. Now is the time... Take no prisoners.
Posted by: jacksmith | November 24, 2007 8:08 AM
For the first time in the history of America. The life expectancy of today's children is less than that of their parents. This is catastrophic. And our infant mortality is equal to that of a third world country. Current U.S. adult life expectancy is down from #1 to #42. And dropping fast. These facts are what is known as EXTINCTION! indicators. These are the early signs of the final phase of the EXTINCTION of the American people.
You have to take the profit motive out of health care delivery. The profit motive does not work with health care. Or any other essential public service like police, and fire. The sooner everyone faces this truth. The sooner you will be able to adopt a real solution to the problem. The days of paying for health care out of pocket are at an end. Just like the mob days of paying for protection out of pocket came to an end.
HR 676 is the way to go. Single payer Universal National Health Care For All. Medicare for all. Accept no substitutes. The sooner you face this. The sooner you begin to heal the Cancer of private for profit medicine that is destroying this entire society. Other developed countries realized this years ago. It's a no-brainer now. See sickocure.org
Money, greed, and the profit motive has just decimated health care in America. And killed, and injured millions needlessly. Just for profit. But that is what large amounts of money, greed, and a lust for power always does. No one is immune from this corrupting power. The smart ones know this. And avoid letting them-self be put in compromising positions. But that is easier said. Than done. And very few succeed.
Most in the US go into medicine primarily to become wealthy. That is who the medical schools mostly choose. Most of the medical schools faculty are in bed with the drug companies, and others. And like the story of Dr. Faustus. They end up selling their souls. One compromise at a time. Until Lucifer owns them.
In medicine. Compromised care means. Injury, disability, and death. It's sad really. But HR 676 can fix this disgrace. Like it has in other developed countries. The only question is. How many more millions will be hurt, injured, and killed. And how many more of your children will die before their time. Before we fix this disgrace of private for profit health care in America.
I realize there will be a few people that have what they believe is good health care coverage. Who will want to opt out of a single payer system like HR 676. But let me remind you we rank # 37 in quality of health care for all. Down from #1. Never the less. A few opting out is not a problem. As long as all other Americans are automatically covered at birth through life. Unless they choose to opt out of HR 676. The government takes out 1.4% from your paycheck now for Medicare. All they have to do is substitute for HR 676 what they now take out of your paychecks for private health insurance. Remember, we already spend more on health care than any other country in the world. Right Now. We are being ripped off. And raped.
The SCHIP program is a desperately needed program for Americas children. But with the impending EXTINCTION of Americas children. And their current catastrophic health care condition. SCHIP needs to be extended to cover all of Americas children, immediately. Parents should have no hesitations, or financial worries about seeking medical care for their children. Whenever they have any concerns about their children's health. Especially in the richest country in the world. I would submit that any President, or politician that fails to do this for the children. Betrays their most solemn oath to protect the American people. Especially when you consider that all other developed countries have done this. And that we are the richest country in the world.
So get on it America. Get it done. You have been doing great over the past several months. Keep it up. And step it up. You have to force it, and take it. It's the right fight, and the right thing to do. Now is the time... Take no prisoners.
Posted by: jacksmith | November 24, 2007 8:11 AM
Nothing like having comments posted here that have nothing to do with the article.
Posted by: j Scott | November 24, 2007 8:07 PM