'Tsunami Tuesday': The Feb. 5 primary sweep

by John McCormick

OAKLAND, Calif -- The date is being called "Tsunami Tuesday" because so many delegates will be up for grabs on Feb. 5 when more than 20 states hold elections and caucuses on the biggest single day of balloting in presidential primary history.

They include three of the nation's most populous states -- California, New York and Illinois -- and the huge stakes have galvanized early attention from candidates who can afford to compete in so many places.

Although a long way from the nation's current political epicenters in Iowa and New Hampshire, Sen. Barack Obama's office here was abuzz with activity on a recent evening as volunteers painted signs, called potential supporters and underwent training.

On most nights, there are 30 or more volunteers in the 2,000-square-foot space in a historic downtown building, all working to remind California voters that they may actually play a major role in nominating the next president.

Since opening the office here in late September, Obama has also set up shop in such places as New York City, Phoenix, Atlanta and Boise, Idaho, part of a network of 14 offices the Illinois Democrat has already opened in 11 of the states.

Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York, meanwhile, is the only other candidate on the Democratic side with the financial wherewithal to match Obama in bulking up to such an extent in so many states.

In the Republican race, former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani is also working to build an extensive network in Feb. 5 states, creating a potential firewall, should he fail to meet expectations in the early-voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

His campaign hopes to capitalize on his name recognition by running a more national campaign. Aides call it his "50-state strategy."

See the rest of the story in today's Tribune:As a result, Giuliani has been traveling to states that haven't seen presidential candidates much this season, if at all.

One recent trip took him to suburban St. Louis, where he attracted about 500 people, filling a banquet hall to capacity. Afterward, voters gave Giuliani credit for visiting.

"He made me feel like my vote matters," said Ron Meyer, a freshman at nearby Principia College in Elsah, Ill. "I have no doubt who I am going to vote for now."

Matt Chase, a St. Louis lawyer, said he also welcomes other states getting some attention. He called Iowa and New Hampshire's importance "overbloated" and "irritating."

Although Clinton is rapidly opening offices in Feb. 5 states -- a spokesman said her campaign now has offices in four of the states and is opening locations in five others -- Obama was quicker to jump into many of the states, a move his campaign claims offers advantages.

If it all feels a bit hypothetical, that's because it is.

If Clinton wins decisively in Iowa and New Hampshire, it could all but knock out Obama and the other Democrats.

Still, Obama's campaign is spending increasing resources in states like California, even as it obsesses about Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucuses. The candidate himself says he is taking the states very seriously.

"We've never seen a calendar like this, so nobody knows exactly how it's going to play out," Obama said in a recent interview. "It's conceivable that people go into Feb. 5 with multiple winners in the first four states and Feb. 5 will be very important."

Obama's campaign is also paying special attention to the six states (Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota and North Dakota) that will hold caucuses on Feb. 5. It was opening an office in North Dakota this weekend and plans to open one soon in Alaska.

"We have a belief that caucuses are low-turnout, and organization matters more than television," said Steve Hildebrand, who is running Obama's early-state strategy.

The attention paid to California is for good reason: a quarter of the delegates awarded Feb. 5 will come from there. Early voting in the state starts just days after the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses.

"It's great that we are going to have a say in this election," said Lisa Dyson, an Oakland graduate student who spends more than 20 hours a week volunteering in Obama's office here.

Although Clinton is expected to win New York, Obama is battling aggressively there because if he can win about 31 percent or more in certain congressional districts, he will be awarded delegates. Clinton also hopes to win some Illinois delegates using the same approach.

Obama becomes animated when asked about his chances in parts of New York.

"We've got hundreds of people who are working regularly in certain congressional districts in New York, where if you win a few delegates, that can really make a difference," he said. "What we've tried to do throughout this campaign is to not only get people signed up, but get them invested and trained as organizers to do outreach and that will help us do well on Feb. 5."

Clinton spokesman Phil Singer, meanwhile, said the former first lady's campaign has held organizational meetings in 46 states and offered large training sessions in eight of the Feb. 5 states.

Mounting such a vast effort for Feb. 5 is an expensive proposition. Even with Obama's resources -- he raised $79 million during the first three quarters of 2007 -- priorities are necessary.

The advertising blitz expected in Feb. 5 states, especially larger ones like California, New York, Georgia and Missouri, could run tens of millions of dollars for each campaign.

That means that whatever money is spent on advertising for Feb. 5 will likely have to be raised in January.

"At $90 to $100 million, whatever we end up raising before Iowa, it still isn't going to be enough," Hildebrand said.

And nowhere is that effort more complex than in California. The state has roughly 15 times as many precincts as Iowa, as well as highly complex and fractured media markets.

Buffy Wicks knows the challenge well. A native of the state, she worked for Howard Dean's presidential campaign in Iowa four years ago and is now Obama's California field director.

She is building a network of volunteers that will put a trained group of organizers in each of the state's 53 congressional districts. "If it's a two-person race, this is going to matter," Wicks said.

Vincent Harris, Obama's deputy state director, said California is a good fit for the multicultural candidate. "He is the California experience for many people," he said.

But Harris already is worrying about the complexity of making get-out-the-vote calls on the Sunday before Feb. 5, which happens to be Super Bowl Sunday.

At least for now, Obama does not expect the battle to go much past Feb. 5, by which time about half of the delegates to the Democratic National Convention will have been picked.

"It's very hard for me to gauge, or game out every scenario," he said. "But I think it's fair to say that we'll know a lot about who is going to be the next nominee after Feb. 5."