by Frank James
The conventional wisdom seems to have caught up to America's Mayor, Rudy Giuliani.
Even before he officially announced his campaign for president earlier this year, journalists and other political commentators said it would be difficult for former New York City Mayor to win the Republican presidential nomination because of his moderate views on social issues like abortion and gay rights; his soap opera of a personal life; the albatross of Bernie Kerik, his disgraced former protégé, and his murky business dealings.
The public, as surveyed by opinion polls didn't seem to care a bit about the conventional wisdom, for months giving Giuliani big leads in national polls and even showing him doing surprisingly well in some states including, of all places, South Carolina, one of the nation's most conservative places.
But as McClatchy reporter Bill Douglas points out in a piece today, those days appear to be about over. Giuliani has fallen in the national and statewide polls as Mike Huckabee has risen.
In part it's about Huckabee but in part it's about Giuliani too. It has always seemed counterintuitive, to say the least, that the Republican base would ever get comfortable enough with Giuliani to give him the support a GOP candidate usually needs in the small early states to gain enough momentum to win the later states.
Giuliani's campaign continues to say that it has a Tsunami Tuesday strategy. That it's plan is to win Florida on Jan. 29 and the other large states like California and New York whose primaries fall on Feb. 5.
But that was always a high-risk strategy, kind of a late-game Hail-Mary pass.
As Douglas writes in his article of the growing challenge facing Giuliani:
"He can't finish in fourth place in Iowa, he can't finish third or fourth in New Hampshire, he can't finish third or fourth in South Carolina and expect to win in Florida," said Dick Bennett, the president of the nonpartisan American Research Group. "Voters look at winners. They don't look at fourth- or fifth-place finishers to take on the first-place candidate" in the other party.
That will be especially true if Huckabee wins Iowa and South Carolina and does better than Giuliani in New Hampshire.
This is not to say Giuliani still can't be the Republican nominee. It's just that the challenge now before him more resembles what the conventional wisdom expected from the beginning, instead of what the polls seemed to indicate until recently.
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Comments
Anyone interested in what Huckabee is really like face to face should try this funny (but it actually happened) column:
http://goupstate.us/index.php/lanefiller/2007/11/02/title_14
Posted by: lane filler | December 18, 2007 10:01 AM
A tough race is not good enough. I need to see Giuliani face an impossible race. We're sunk if he either gets the Republican nomination or wins the election. His election would mean another four years of Duh'bya like government - which we can't afford.
Posted by: John W. | December 18, 2007 11:11 AM
I'm wondering, Frank, are you going to cover Bill Clinton's murky business dealings with Burkle? Are you folks going to cover the Cayman bank accounts the Clintons have to escape paying taxes?
Whether it's Romney or Giuliani, either candidate would make a great U.S. president and lead this nation forward, not backward like any of the Dumbocrat candidates would do.
Posted by: John D | December 18, 2007 11:27 AM
Whether it's Romney or Giuliani, either candidate would make a great U.S. president and lead this nation forward, not backward like any of the Dumbocrat candidates would do.
Posted by: John D | December 18, 2007 11:27 AM
Yes, forward to greater debt, more wars, more limited freedoms, not back to peace, prosperity, and the rule of law.
Posted by: JT | December 18, 2007 11:46 AM
"John D", don't take this article too seriously. It's Frank James, after all. Who is so poor/biased a reporter that he doesn't even bother to set forth the results of the polls that supposedly prove Rudy's downfall. A look at the actual polls cited in the Douglas article gives you some idea why Frank James censors the results.
Among those polls not mentioned is the one showing Rudy 13% ahead in Florida. Or the one showing Rudy LEADING the other Republicans in the national polls.
Pretty strong poll numbers for a political corpse...
Posted by: Bruce | December 18, 2007 11:51 AM
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aGwhTXxfCSHo&refer=home
Instead of whining like usual John Deaf, just post a link. Its that easy, stop being lazy if you feel you have a point to make.
How are guys like our buddy JD going to deal with reality if Mike Huckabee wins the nomination?
Posted by: kb | December 18, 2007 12:15 PM
kb,
Funny thing is, Johnny D. used to push tax avoidance software for guys like Burkle. Typical Republicrite, that Dyslin.
Posted by: dt | December 18, 2007 4:20 PM
HuckaBOO That's scary!
Posted by: almanojodo | December 18, 2007 4:28 PM
Posted by: kb | December 18, 2007 12:15 PM
kb - Geographically Challenged Dumb Dumb Little Johnnie D, "the Joseph Stalin of Streamwood", didn't post a link to any story regarding President Bill Clinton's involvement in 3 Cayman Island funds is because there IS NO story there.
But that didn't stop him from trying to divert your attention away from the pathetic government that is the current pResident Doogie Howser's administration.
Posted by: BC | December 18, 2007 9:46 PM
A $515-billion spending bill was passed under the cover of darkness, Monday night that undermines plans for a U.S.-Mexico border fence, says many media reports. The spending plan carefully manipulated the already signed President Bush bill into a dying provision for a two-tier barrier that has worked well in California, the newspapers reported. Republicans are screaming about the contrived move that's expected to result in a SINGLE-TIERED TRAVESTY OF A BORDER FENCE. It is strange we can afford to pay for the Iraq war, but the protection of the American taxpayer it seems is not even a priority? "The fact that the amendment was buried in a bloated, 3,500-page document tells of the underhand coersion of Kay Bailey Hutchinson of Texas and Democrats unserious approach to border security and illegal immigration.
Fax for FREE your PUBLIC SERVANT (politician) at numbersusa.com and read them the "RIOT ACT."!
Posted by: Daves | December 18, 2007 10:32 PM