by Frank James, updated at 1:56 pm
Just about every student of American politics knows that when President Bush entered the White House in 2000, he hoped to realign American politics by attracting more minorities to the Republican fold, particularly Latinos who, as voters, share some of the same characteristics as conservative Republicans-strong religious affiliation and anti-abortion beliefs among them.
But while Bush and his chief political strategist Karl Rove made gains in 2004 in that area, those gains have largely eroded since then.
The Pew Hispanic Center has a new report that indicates Latinos are increasingly aligning with the Democratic Party, mirroring a shift in party affiliation that his happening generally in the U.S.
As Pew says of its findings:
The gains that the Republican Party had been making this decade in partisan affiliation among Latinos have dissipated in the past year, according to a new Pew Hispanic Center survey of Latino registered voters. The Democratic-over-Republican partisan affiliation edge (identifiers and leaners included), which had been 33 percentage points in 1999, then fell to 21 percentage points by 2006, is now back up to 34 percentage points.
The report also examines the potential of Hispanics to be a swing voting block in the 2008 election. Though they make up only a relatively small share of the nationwide electorate, Hispanics comprise a larger share of voters in four of the six "swing states" that President Bush carried by margins of five percentage points or fewer in 2004 – New Mexico, Florida, Nevada and Colorado. The report presents state-by-state data on the most recent eligibility and turnout trends of the Latino electorate.
Republican National Committee spokesperson Hessy Fernande, had a response to the Pew report:
"Hispanic voters judge candidates based on where they stand on the
issues, and the Republican Party is more closely aligned with Hispanics
than liberals like Hillary Clinton who want to create a government-run
health care system sponsored by garnishing wages, massive tax increases
the hurt small businesses and families, and surrender from the War on
Terror's central front. Democrats will have a hard time selling their
weak and liberal policy stances to Hispanic voters next fall."
Analysts often cite immigration as an issue that has made many Hispanic Republicans and independents question their commitment to the Republican party.
While many native-born or naturalized Hispanics are just as concerned about illegal immigration as non-Hispanics, experts have warned that many U.S. citizens of Hispanic heritage could be turned off to the GOP by what they detect as a meanness in the immigration debate on the Republican side that sometimes borders on intolerance.
Democrats are trying to take advantage of this Hispanic movement towards the Democratic Party. At the time of this writing, Democratic National Committee Chair Howard Dean and Rev. Luis Cortes, the president and CEO of Esperanza USA were holding a conference call with reporters "ahead of the Republican candidate debate on Univision to urge the Republican Party to stop using immigration as a wedge issue for political gain and to stop scapegoating immigrants," according to the press alert from the DNC.
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Comments
Three problems with this poll:
One: Unlike African-Americans (who do not distinguish themselves by country of origin), Latinos do not share historical and cultural roots. Get a group of Puerto Ricans and Mexicans and Cubans together, and you'd see what I mean.
Two: Mexicans come from a country who politics is so poisoned that few believe in the electoral system, so even many who are actually ELIGIBLE to vote stay home.
Three: The real shift will only take place when one or the other party actually does something for Latinos. Bush was actually headed in the right direction in his relations with Mexico, and then he tabled everything after 9/11.
Later, Bush barked at Chavez in the traditional American way, further alienating non-Cuban Latinos.
So, in essence, while Bush benefited politically from 9/11 and his tussle with Chavez, so did the Democratic party.
Posted by: Bud McFarlin | December 6, 2007 1:42 PM
"Latinos increasingly abandoning GOP"
Amazing! Demonizing brown people actually has repercussions. If anti immigration diatribes are such a vote getter for the Republic party, why is Tancredo at 1%?
Posted by: weinerdog43 | December 6, 2007 1:51 PM
Latinos increasingly abandoning GOP?
It's not that surprising when you consider the current GOP platform:
- we don't like scary brown people
- we don't like scary black people
- we don't like scary gay people
- we don't like people with scaring sounding arab names
The history of the George Bush administration...from a black man's perspective.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dL5Lj6zRBEk
Posted by: John E | December 6, 2007 3:41 PM
Who could possibly be shocked at this development?
When the overheated rhetoric on the illegal immigration debate often slides over into statements about threats to our national "culture" and "Language", who wouldn't expect those who identify with that culture and language to be driven away from the party of those demogaues"
When a Republican says the following, any Latino who is proud of there heritage should have profound doubts about voting Republican.
“The impact of immigration — legal and illegal — on jobs, schools, health care, the environment, national security, are all very serious problems,” he said. “But more serious than all of them put together is this threat to the culture. I believe we are in a clash of civilizations.”
Posted by: JT | December 6, 2007 3:58 PM
Perhaps it's not so much that Latinos (and anyone else who's leaving The Party) are ABANDONING the GOP as it is they're sliding off because the Republican slime leaves so little grip.
Posted by: Op109 | December 6, 2007 5:27 PM
It's a no brainer.
Posted by: C.Morris | December 6, 2007 5:43 PM
The headline is backwards, it should read:
"GOP increasingly abandoning Latinos."
Posted by: Luke | December 6, 2007 5:53 PM
Since the Democrats put in the motor voter laws registering people without being able, legally, to ask their citizenship, it's no wonder they might like the Democrats. What other documentation do they need: driver's license, voter card and a clear path to
a Social Security number. Anyone wonder why Hillary wanted the driver's licenses for illegals in New York?
Posted by: Dorcas | December 6, 2007 7:13 PM
Totally rediculous!
If the republican candidate comes out with a strong stand for enforcing our immigration laws and closing our borders ... he will win next November ... irregardless of latinos ... the american voter has had it with illegals!!!
Posted by: K W Smith | December 6, 2007 7:43 PM
Bush has embraced latinos and pushed for amnesty for illegals .... and where has it got him?
It's time the republicans start fighting for the rights and concerns of legal american citizens ... because they can't compete with the democrats promising entitlements for those here illegally.
Posted by: K W Smith | December 6, 2007 8:53 PM
Ladies and Gentlemen...I present to you the typical Republic voter...KW Smith! Not smart enough to even spell the word 'ridiculous'.
Then again, I shouldn't make fun of 7th graders.
Posted by: weinerdog43 | December 6, 2007 9:05 PM
It's time the republicans start fighting for the rights and concerns of legal american citizens ... because they can't compete with the democrats promising entitlements for those here illegally.
_____________________________
Once again, the wily Democrats steal a page from the corrupt republitard play book. Here, they are selling favorable legislation for votes, like the republicrites do all the time.
Posted by: rncbs | December 6, 2007 10:10 PM
Dorcas,
Why do you lie? The voter registration form clearly has an affadavit that needs to be signed affirming that you applicant is a US citizen. You cannot vote if the election board cannot prove you are elligible. Stop lying.
Posted by: jethro | December 7, 2007 10:04 AM
Ladies and Gentlemen, may I present the typical left wing democrat Weinerdog! Lacking the brain power to formulate any type of coherent counterpoint to a post by K W Smith, he is reduced to pointing out spelling errors.
Posted by: Chris | December 7, 2007 11:27 AM