by Frank James
The polling evidence keeps rolling in that the race for the Democratic presidential nomination is too close to call while the Republican race remains a head scratcher too.
The Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg News have new polling data that indicates that on the Democratic side Sen. Barack Obama has essentially surged to the point where there is no daylight between him and the former frontrunner in New Hampshire, Sen. Hillary Clinton. Meanwhile, the Democratic race in Iowa remains a three-way tie.
As a story by Janet Hook in the LA Times reports:
WASHINGTON -- Barack Obama has wiped out Hillary Rodham Clinton's once-commanding lead in New Hampshire and the two remain virtually tied with John Edwards in Iowa, as more and more voters get off the fence and decide whom to support, a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll has found.
Obama drew backing from 32% of New Hampshire Democrats who intend to vote in the primary, compared with Clinton's 30% -- a statistical dead heat. That's a dramatic shift from September, when a similar poll found him trailing 35% to 16% in the state that will hold its presidential primary Jan. 8.
In Iowa, which opens the 2008 presidential voting with its Jan. 3 caucuses, the poll found Sen. Obama of Illinois, Sen. Clinton of New York and former Sen. Edwards of North Carolina in a statistical three-way tie.
The poll suggested, however, that when the question to voters is who do they have greater confidence in on issues of foreign policy, Clinton gains an advantage. Yesterday's assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto made foreign policy experience a bigger asset.
As Hook writes, that's a factor not just for Democrats but for Republicans too:
But other poll findings suggest Clinton might gain stature in both states if Democrats' concern about world affairs increases after Thursday's assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. The poll shows that Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire consider Clinton far better equipped than her rivals to safeguard national security -- as do Democrats around the country.
Such a shift in focus away from domestic policy also could affect the Republican presidential contest and benefit Sen. John McCain of Arizona, whose campaign has rebounded in New Hampshire. He's second behind Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts.
The poll found that Republicans in New Hampshire and Iowa consider McCain best qualified to handle foreign affairs, though his campaign has suffered from months of weak fundraising and staff turmoil.
In Iowa, the poll found that the Republican race has been scrambled by the steep rise of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, the conservative Baptist minister who has opened a lead of 37% to 23% over Romney. For months, Romney had enjoyed a solid lead.
The poll underscores how, in both parties, the two earliest-voting states are ripe for surprises and upsets in the final days of the campaign.
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Comments
DES MOINES, Iowa -- It was a stinky holiday for Robert Schoff.
The 77-year-old man spent part of Christmas Eve stuck upside down in the opening of his septic tank, with his head inside and his feet kicking in the air above.
"It wasn't good, I'll tell you what," Schoff said Tuesday. "It was the worst Christmas Eve I've ever had."
Schoff reached into the tank Monday in an effort to find a clog, but he lost his balance and got wedged into the opening.
The 5-foot-5-inch, 135-pound Schoff hollered and screamed for help, but it was an hour before his wife, Toni, walked by a window and saw his feet in the air.
"I saw these kicking feet and ran out, but couldn't get him out," Toni Schoff said.
She called 911 and two Polk County sheriff's deputies yanked her husband out of the tank.
"I thought it was the end of my life," Schoff said. "Thank God my wife saw me. I don't think I could have stood staying in there much more."
After reading this article,do you think we put to much of an emphasis on who wins Iowa?
Posted by: Raving Loon | December 28, 2007 11:16 AM
If the fear mongers and "I am stronger on security than God" mavens rule the day in Iowa, Hillary/Bill Clinton and Rudy Giuliani will skip arm in arm down the yellow brick road to New Hampshire. But if Iowans look beyond the thin "experience unlimited" mantra they will recognize that both Giuliani and Hillary/Bill and a few others, have demonstrated very bad judgment, and America is in the predicament we're in because of the collective bad judgment of those who are in control of the government. We need new leaders, new vision, new plans, new faces, and a new direction. None of these "experience and security gods" is the answer.
Posted by: GW | December 28, 2007 11:58 AM
What foreign policy experience does Rudy Ghouliani have?
He had a chance to get some experience by working with the Iraq Study Group but instead he quit so that he could continue racking in the big bucks from doing his 9/11 fearmongering speechs, capitalizing on the deaths of other Americans.
Rudy's 9/11 Failures of Leadership Exposed by NYC Fire Fighters:
http://therealrudy.org/blog/5400-rudy-s-9-11-failures-of-leadership-exposed-by-fire-fighters?play=1
Posted by: John E | December 28, 2007 1:59 PM
These polls occurred before yesterday's events in Pakistan reminded Americans that more is at stake than Oprah's endorsement. We are not electing a celebrity, we are electing a leader.
Incidentally, unwritten in this article was that the Iowa LA Times/Bloomberg poll referred to had Hillary up by six points in any event.
Posted by: Biggdawg | December 28, 2007 2:01 PM
Hello Raving Loon, something to ponder there, it's a metaphor for our prospects should more Clinton time in the White House be allowed by the electorate. Stop the madness!
Posted by: James I. Nienhuis | December 28, 2007 2:37 PM
I think people are finally starting to realize that it is time to decide, and when it comes down to it, they cannot stand Hillary Clinton. Most people vote with a gut feeling, and it is just too hard to like Hillary (she just cannot get past the huge negative numbers, no matter what her handlers tell her to do).
Obama may be young, but he is so likable that it is hard to avoid supporting him. Originally, I liked Richardson and Biden, but they are so far back that it is not worth wasting a vote. Obama seems to be a man of destiny, and imagining him as our next president is not so hard to do anymore.
Obama in '08!
Posted by: Liz | December 28, 2007 3:02 PM
We need new leaders, new vision, new plans, new faces, and a new direction. None of these "experience and security gods" is the answer.
Posted by: GW | December 28, 2007 11:58 AM
I tend to agree with you GW. I think a smart leader is one who can surround himself with the right team. Rudy is definitely not the guy to do it.
Posted by: Logic Prisoner | December 28, 2007 3:19 PM
I reconnected with John Edwards. He is against corporate greed. No other person running has mentioned this. He is a populist, and runs far from the madening crowd. I have made up my mind.
Is he perfect? lol who the hell is? But he is honest.
Posted by: Daniel F. | December 28, 2007 4:06 PM