Blogger: Romney MI victory surprisingly broad: The Swamp
 
The Swamp
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Posted January 16, 2008 9:25 AM
The Swamp

by Frank James

Conservative blogger Ed Morrissey over at Captain's Quarters has an analysis of what the exit polls tell us about Mitt Romney's victory . Essentially, it was a strong showing across the board for Romney who now has something to show for all the money he has spent up to this point.

The key point, as Morrissey puts it, is this:

In looking at the exit polling at CNN, the surprise is in how broad Romney's victory was. He won most of the demographics in the exit polling, with McCain only winning a handful. McCain won among those who back a path-to-citizenship policy for immigration, but only by 5 points over Romney. That suggests that immigration was not as big an issue for Michigan Republicans despite a bad economy and job competition. Romney won pluralities among both conservatives and liberals, with McCain winning among moderates. Strangely, McCain won pluralities among those who disapprove and strongly disapprove of the Iraq war. Mitt handily won among those who support it, even though McCain has been one of its strongest advocates.

Ron Paul only won 6% of the overall vote, and did badly among expected demographics. He took 20% of those who strongly disapprove of the Iraq war, a third-place finish despite being the only anti-war candidate, and only 8% among those who somewhat disapprove of it. He took only 13% of the independents and just 7% of the Democrats, who themselves comprised only 7% of the vote.

The question is whether Romney, who had the native-son advantage in Michigan, will be able to duplicate this showing elsewhere. It's no small thing to have a family name that resounds with such strength in Michigan due to Romney's father having been a popular governor there and before that, head of American Motors.

Until Romney can pull off a win like this elsewhere in a state where his father wasn't governor, the jury will remain out for a lot of people.

Morrissey notes the weirdness in the exit polling for McCain. How is it that people who said they disapproved of the Iraq War voted so strongly for McCain? Romney and McCain's positions are similar on the war, at least now, since Romney has moved closer to McCain's position than he was Prue-surge.

But McCain has clearly been a hawk on the war and has said he could foresee the U.S. military being in Iraq for a century. Something doesn't compute about his capturing antiwar voters, unless other issues, like economics, trumped the war for them.

Morrissey delights in the failure of liberal blogger Markos Moulitsas of Daily Kos to create mischief since Democrats didn't turn out in large numbers to vote for McCain. Since there wasn't a real contest for Democrats in Michigan, with Sen. Hillary Clinton being the only major Democratic candidate on the ballot, Kos has asked Democrats to vote instead in the Republican primary for McCain in order to torpedo Romney.

Morrissey says:

In any case, the crossover gambit flopped. Michigan voters proved their seriousness, even while others encouraged them to play silly games with the franchise.

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Comments

I would count this victory more on name recognition than issues, as evidenced by the broad demographic. Romney is a household name in Michigan.


DD,
I think John McCain and Rudy Ghouliani have plenty of name recognition in MI and the rest of the country, the world even. Romney won because the Republican party is in complete disarray. The economic royalists are fighting with the bible thumping Evangelicals and the McCainiacs. Get your popcorn ready because this is going to be fun watching these three groups eat each other.


The best man for the job won yesterday in Michigan -- and I appreciate that he's a Mormon, for I've known them to be a people of great integrity and humanity.


Want to see a true AMerican leader?

Watch Huckabees speech after the Michigan primary. You may just be moved.

I am

Dan Campbell


Romney didn't win on name recognition, be handily beat McCain who had won the state 8 years ago with name recognition to spare. Romney won on issues. He is the most qualified candidate to lead America - lower taxes, stronger economy, secured boarders.


But Kos didn't ask for Dems to vote McCain to torpedo Romney. He asked Dems to vote Romney with the slogan: "Democrats for Mitt: Because the GOP deserves the very worst".


Frank James is so out of touch with the conservative blogosphere that while he uses Ed Morrissey's blog as the basis of an article, he misspells Morrissey's name (as Morrisey) FIVE times in the above article.

The Democrats who write for the Swamp are both totally clueless and totally partisan.


MCCain,what happened to the "Come Back" senior?

Jeff,where we going with this pathetic group of candidates?

Is it time to bring in Alan Keyes?


A little surprised with your comment about Ron Paul. I thought he was supposed to be a "fringe" candidate, and he actually beat Thompson and Giuliani rather handily.


Romney won because he is the best candidate.

Yesterday, media were still saying that his father's name was not enough, those decades ago--and they were right.

Why change the story now?

Hats off to Michigan for recognizing that Romney is the best candidate...

But, those of us in Iowa came close to recognizing it as well--don't forget he was a close second here, and in NH (not to mention first in Wyoming).

This will be an interesting race. Hopefully, Americans will research the issues for themselves, as I have done...if they do, final results for the country will mirror those for Michigan.


Get your popcorn ready because this is going to be fun watching these three groups eat each other.
Posted by: jethro | January 16, 2008 9:51 AM


Jethro...Do you mean like the "looney left" is presently doing to each other now ?


Romney's People did an outstanding job in Michigan - Well Done!

The real ugliness has begun in S.C. with the Truthers - sadly they have ties to Duncan Hunter.

http://hickeysite.blogspot.com/2008/01/john-mccain-heres-truther-jerry-kiley.html


Jethro,

Popcorn tastes so much better as I watch Hillary and Barack play the race card and fight over MLKjr's legacy and fairy tales....more butter plaese!

Paulo


Romney won and has been at the top of every primary, because he is the only well-rounded conservative with a chance on winning the presidency. He is competitive everywhere because:
He has more executive experience than any candidate.
He is a strong social conservative.
He has vision for change
He can turn around other mistakes made prior to his taking the Job. (Bain Capital, Olympics, MA. Huge deficit, Big Dig Fiasco, and he'll do the same in Iraq)

Huckabee is a nice guy... so is Jimmy Carter

I'm not going to take anything away from Rudy, he just shouldn't be President over Romney

Mccain is a great american but he continually pals around with Kennedy, Lieberman, Feingold etc..

Be Smart. Look at the Facts.


VOTE ROMNEY


Paulo,
I'd rather have candidates talk about race than ignore it. Keep living in the Republican "fairy tale" that racism doesn't exist anymore. Good night.


Paulo...Put a little more lotion on your neck...it's getting awful red.


I read that Romney is getting a lot of support form evangelical voters. I found that curious. I would have thought staunch christians would be against a mormon candidate, but the numbers show differently.

Just thought it was interesting.


Kos didn't want Dems to vote for McCain ...

We wanted Dems to vote for Romney so that he'd stay in the race and continue to spend millions on keeping the GOP ClusterF*ck alive!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PiCqxKLIVDY


Kos has asked Democrats to vote instead in the Republican primary for McCain in order to torpedo Romney.

We await your correction.


Um,...

Markos Moulitsas called for Democrats to cross over and vote for ROMNEY. You might want to update.

The Kossack invasion of the Michigan Republican primary was far more successful than originally predicted.

Might want to go over to DailyKos because Kossacks are laughing at your analysis. It's a documented fact, Kos went for Romney because that threw the biggest wrench into the GOP primary scheme.


This is absurd. The liberal blog DailyKos has been calling for democrats to vote Romney, not McCain.

In fact, some nut was filing complaints against the site, claiming that this effort constituted voter fraud.


"MEANWHILE BACK AT THE FUTURE CRAWFORD RANCH"

NOT ONE GOP MEMBER IS COMMENTING ON THE CIA DESTRUCTION OF CLASSIFIED INFORMATION. TREASON

NOT ONE GOP MEMBER IS COMMENTING ON THE DESTRUCTION OF PRESIDENTIAL ARCHIVES RECORDS. IMPEACHABLE OFFENSE MADAME SPEAKER!

NOT ONE GOP PERSON IS COMMENTING ON KARL ROVE, HARRIET MEIRS, AND JOSHUA'S POSSIBLE INHERENT CONTEMPT CHARGES. (HOPEFULLY CONGRESS WILL SUBJECT THEM TO IT)

NOT ONE GOP PERSON IS COMMENTING ON ANYTHING BUT IS OJ ON TELEVISION YET.

OH THANK GOD, BOY WE DIDN'T KNOW WHERE WE WERE GOING TO GET A DISTRACTION TODAY. SENATOR MITCHELL DIDN'T DO IT.

BY THE WAY, HOW IS IT THAT ONE SENATOR CAN ACTUALLY HAVE AN OVERSIGHT MEETING AND HAVE CONGRESSIONAL RECORDS ACTUALLY SAVED ON CONGRESSIONAL WHITE HOUSE SERVERS BUT NOT GEORGE BUSH OR DICK CHENEY OR ANY OF HIS STAFFERS.

HOW IS THAT!

IMPEACHMENT IS NOT AN OPTION. RECORD THAT!


It’s funny to me that Huckabee is being taken seriously. My friends who work for McCain tell me that McCain secretly thinks Huckabee is just a “usefull idiot” who he only tried to prop up in Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan in hopes of taking down Romney. Does anyone really believe Huckabee could win the presidency? He dropped out the theological seminary community college, doesn’t know the difference between economics and evolution, and his family couldn’t fit through the front door of the White House. What is the republican party doing to itself.


This is just like I said before, democrats listened to Markos Moulitsas and "screwed up" the Republican primary by going for Romney.

I'd love to see the Swamp post party affiliation numbers from the open primary about those pluralities of "liberals" that Romney won.

Whatever, it's only a half-slate of electors, anyway. We trudge on to South Carolina. At least our top campaigns haven't devolved to daily insults like the Obama and Clinton ones have.


Frank James, do you even read what you're typing? Google "dailykos" and "michigan" and you'll find that Markos Moulitsas urged Michigan voters to vote for ROMNEY in order to "screw up" the republicans' primaries.


Romney was the winner by far among republicans. McCain won among democrats and independents just like in New Hampshire. Romney won by almost ten points fairly.


Jeff,
Nice try but independents and Democrats stayed home for the most part due to inclimate weather. McCain was soundly beaten. They called the race with only 11% of the precincts reporting. Even if you gave McCain every Democrat and Independent vote he would have lost because he's a loser.


Not in New Hampshire, he wasn't, Julia, Romney was ;)

We'll see how your candidate and his magic underwear fair in South Carolina, where McCain is dualing with Huckabee for the win. I doubt Romney can win a real primary without help from Daddy's image.

Republicans did come out for Romney in MI but none of you guys can deny that head of the loony left Markos Moulitsas wanted democrats to vote Romney. There's a record of it online.


Oh, yeah, what does Prue-Surge mean? Does that have something to do with "Charmed?"


My friends who work for McCain's campaign tell me that McCain views Huckabee as a "useful idiot" who he only propped up to take Romney down. How can anyone take Hillbillie Huckabee seriously?


I too am surprised (and hopeful) by the amount of Evangelicals voting for Romney. Initially I didn't think that Romney had a prayer but it seems that the Evangelicals aren't all buying into the anti mormon pitch made by their pastors. Good for them and good for America! Huckabee has a record and so does Mitt Romney - one only need to research to find which one is the conservative! Huckabee has great one liners and he plays guitar - not really presidential material. Mitt Romney doesn't use his Christianity (and Mormons are Christian) to get votes because he has a conservative record to present to voters. He understands that religion has no place in politics. Huckabee has nothing but his history as a pastor because his record as a governor is both liberal AND tattered with ethics violations. He is hoping that the Evangelicals will ignore his record and vote religion (unfortunately a good portion will). John McCain is not conservative either. He has a record to prove it! He has my respect for serving our country but I see that as no reason to vote for him. Mitt Romney is a wealthy man but how can people vote against him for that? He worked for his fortune and has proven himself successful. The "hate the rich" mindset is supposed to be that of Democrats - those who would try to take our country to Socialism. I hope that Mitt Romney is the next President of the United States - he is the best man for the job!


Roots of Romney’s “lazy boy” Religion:

MORMONS: [The Encyclopedia Britannica, Thirteenth Edition, London, vol. 18, pp. 842-843, 1926]… a religious sect founded by Joseph Smith… born… December 1805 at Sharon… Vermont, from which place… his parents, who like his grandparents were superstitious, neurotic, seers of visions, and believers in miraculous cures and in heavenly voices and direct revelation, removed to New York, where they settled on a small farm… Joseph, a good natured, lazy boy, suffering from a bad heredity physically and psychically, began to have visions which seem to have accompanied epileptoid seizures… from which he recovered apparently before he became of age. The boy’s father was a digger for hidden treasure… the son became a crystal gazer and by the use of a “peep-stone” discovered the whereabouts of pretended hidden treasure…. It was not until the 22nd of September of 1827 that (as he said) he dug up, on the hill near Manchester, a stone box, in which was a volume… made of thin gold plates… and fastened together by three gold rings. The plates were covered with small writing [supposedly of the reformed Egyptian tongue]… with the golden book Smith claimed that he found a breastplate of gold and a pair of supernatural spectacles, consisting of two crystals set in a silver bow, and called “Urim and Thummin”; by aid of these the mystic characters could be read....


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