Bush: 'Optimistic about prospects' in Middle East

by Mark Silva

President Bush, preparing for his first trip to Israel as president, hopes to not only encourage peace talks between Israeli and Palestinian leaders, but also enlist Arab allies in the Gulf region in the support of a new, independent Palestinian state.

Yet analysts say the president will be hard-pressed to secure any progress with his eight-day tour of the region starting Tuesday, after years of maintaining a personal distance from the Middle East. They say the perils to peace have grown more daunting since Bush first articulated his vision of a "two-state solution'' early in his presidency.

"The Bush administration has been mugged by reality,'' says Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "After vowing to transform the Middle East, the administration is submitting to it, resorting to the sort of process-driven incremental diplomacy that previous administrations had pursued and that this administration had disdained.

"President Bush has come to realize that while he may yearn for a wholesale transformation in the politics and societies of the Middle East, his tools to promote that change are meager.,'' Alterman says. "Five years ago, there was a sense that things couldn’t get any worse in the Middle East and we should push for change whatever the consequences. Now, there is a keen appreciation of how many ways things could actually get much worse and how much better off we are working with people we know and with whom we share at least some interests.''

Yet the White House maintains that Bush can make a difference with this trip.

"I think just his going there is going to advance the prospects,'' says Stephen Hadley, the president's national security adviser.

"If you think about it, we've really got sort of three tracks that were launched at Annapolis, (Maryland, with a summt Israeli and Arab leaders in November),'' he says. "One is the negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians for an outline of an agreement for a Palestinian state; the second is the implementation of the road map; and the third, of course, is building the institutions of a Palestinian state. These are sort of the three elements of what we need to build an enduring Israeli-Palestinian peace. ''

Bush will land in Tel Aviv on Tuesday, hold meetings with Israeli leaders, tour Jerusalem and its Holocaust museum and meet with Palestinian leaders in Ramallah. He also will meet with Tony Blair, the former British prime minister serving as envoy to the region for the Quartet of international partners attempting to help broker a peace in the region. From there, Bush will move on to Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

We will travel with him, with the Tribune offering a broader look at the challenges which Bush faces on this journey in the days ahead and both the Tribune and the Swamp providing running coverage of the trip running from Jan. 8 through 16. Join us, please.

And today, the president addresses the trip in his weekly radio address:

THE PRESIDENT: "Good morning. On Tuesday, I will board Air Force One and depart for a trip to the Middle East. This is a region of great strategic importance to the United States, and I'm looking forward to my visit.

My first stops will be in the Holy Land, where I'll meet with Israeli Prime Minister Olmert and Palestinian President Abbas. I will encourage both leaders to move forward with the peace negotiations they began last November in Annapolis. This is difficult work. It will require tough decisions on complex questions. But I am optimistic about the prospects. And I will make clear that America is deeply committed to helping both parties realize the historic vision we share: two democratic states, Israel and Palestine, living side by side in peace and security.

During the second part of my trip, I will visit five of America's key allies in the Arab world: Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. I will thank the leaders of these countries for their friendship. I will urge them to strongly support negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians. I will discuss the importance of countering the aggressive ambitions of Iran. And I will assure them that America's commitment to the security of our friends in the region is strong and enduring.

I know it is not always obvious why events in the nations of the Middle East should matter to the American people. But in the 21st century, developments there have a direct impact on our lives here. As we saw on September the 11th, 2001, dangers that arise on the other side of the world can bring death and destruction to our own streets. Since then, extremists have assassinated democratic leaders from Afghanistan to Lebanon to Pakistan. They have murdered innocent people from Saudi Arabia to Jordan and Iraq. They are seeking new weapons and new operatives, so they can attack America again, overthrow governments in the Middle East, and impose their hateful vision on millions.

On my trip, I will consult closely with our partners in the war against these extremists. I will reaffirm our pledge to use every necessary tool of intelligence, law enforcement, diplomacy, finance, and military power to bring our common enemies to justice. The terrorists and extremists will not let down their guard, and we must not let down ours.

At its core, the battle unfolding in the Middle East is more than a clash of arms. It is an ideological struggle. On one side are the forces of terror and death. On the other are tens of millions of ordinary people who want a free and peaceful life for their children. The future of the Middle East depends on the outcome of this struggle, and so does the security of the United States. We know that societies growing in tolerance and hope are less likely to become sources of radicalism and violence. So America will stay engaged in the region. We will support democrats and reformers from Beirut and Baghdad to Damascus and Tehran. We will stand with all those working to build a future of liberty and justice and peace.

Prevailing in this struggle will not be easy, but we know from history that it can be done. After World War II, many said that advancing freedom in Europe and East Asia would be impossible. Yet America invested the time and resources to help nations make the transition from dictatorship to democracy. There were trying moments along the way, and progress did not arrive overnight. But with patience and resolve, we have seen an extraordinary return on our investment -- vital regions of the world that live in stability and prosperity and peace with America.

I believe a similar transformation can take place in the Middle East. At this decisive moment in their history, the people of the Middle East can have confidence in the power of liberty to overcome tyranny and terror. And all who step forward in freedom's cause can count on a friend in the United States. I look forward to sharing this message in the region.

Thank you for listening.''