by Jason George
DES MOINES -- Mark Penn, Sen. Hillary Clinton's chief strategist, is dismissing last night's The Des Moines Register poll, which has his candidate a solid seven points behind Sen. Barack Obama.
"The Des Moines Register poll adopts an unprecedented new turnout model for the caucuses, and its new poll is out of sync with the other polling done in the race," wrote Penn on the Hillary Blog.
Penn is known to obsess over polls – he just wrote a book on finding trends in numerical data – but this is not the first time he's vocally challenged the methodology of one he didn't sample himself. Last month he went after John Zogby with similar rhetoric.
Penn's central complaint is that the Register poll didn't talk to same group who will actually go out and vote on Jan. 3.
"The Des Moines Register Poll this time has 40% independent voters and 5% GOP voters in the poll when past independent participation has been 15% in 2000 and 19% in 2004, and the GOP has generally made up 1% of the vote. So they are depicting an unprecedented departure from historically established turnout patterns in the caucus. Under their model, only 55% of the caucus goers would be Democrats," he wrote.
"We do not see this poll as accurately reflecting the trends we are seeing in other polls, on our nightly canvasses or in our own polls, and voters should understand this is a very close race, and that their participation on caucus night could make all of the difference."
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Comments
Why is not CNN or MSNBC posting this information on their front pages or the results from todays two CNN & Zogby polls that show Clinton ahead or tied?
Posted by: Adam Schecter | January 1, 2008 11:16 AM
This is a case of wishful thinking for Mr. Penn. Barack Obama inspires Americans.
Mr. Penn's book is about "the smaller trends that go unnoticed or even ignored" and the unprecedented turnout for the Iowa Caucus is a trend he wishes everyone would just ignore. There will be no ignoring it come Thursday.
Posted by: Edward Lynch | January 1, 2008 11:52 AM
I wonder why Mark Penn thinks the independent caucus goers are irrelevant.
Maybe because they are not voting for Hillary?
He should be concerned.
Posted by: Nikki | January 1, 2008 12:49 PM
America is a Democracy - Not a monarchy.
I'm voting for Barack Obama.
Barack Obama for President of the United States of America.
It's time for America to Rise and Shine again.
Posted by: PulSamsara | January 1, 2008 1:16 PM
When a candidate is down in the polls the polls are wrong. When a candidate is up in the polls the polls are correct.
Obviously the Hillary/Clinton campaign is worried, besides being pissed off, that they actually had to do some work after they found out that Ms inevitable ain't looking so inevitable round about now.
Posted by: GW | January 1, 2008 1:27 PM
It's no big surprise that Penn will disagree with anything that shows Obama's strength. A look at the DMR register polls when compared to final results in 2000 and 2004 shows them to be amazingly accurate.
Should we expect another kindergarten-gate or racist drug slur from the Clinton camp in the closing hours of the Iowa campaign?
Posted by: April Vargas | January 1, 2008 1:35 PM
Then We'll just wait until tommorow to see what he says
Posted by: Chris | January 1, 2008 1:39 PM
I think it is significant that the Des Moines Register editorial staff endorsed Clinton weeks ago. That would pretty much negate the idea that they would skew the poll in favor of Obama. The caucus is the true test and I will be there to caucus for Obama!
Posted by: TishiJo | January 1, 2008 5:19 PM
Maybe Penn should call his old clients, Blackwater, and see how they handle this sort of bad news.
Seriously, Zogby came out with numbers that Clinton didn't like in early December and Penn made an ass out of himself questioning Zogby's expertise. Looked like an idiot!
Keep in mind only the "DM Register" got '04 right and in the correct order of finish. However, the only poll that matters in Thursday evening. Anything can happen and probably will!
Posted by: Blackwater Baby | January 1, 2008 5:57 PM
Thank God Iowa will be over, then NH; I can't wait for 2/3 of these people, both sides, to go away forever.
I have been suffering 'candie fatigue' since May(07).
Posted by: C.Morris | January 1, 2008 6:24 PM
"America is a Democracy - Not a monarchy.
I'm voting for Barack Obama.
"Barack Obama for President of the United States of America.
It's time for America to Rise and Shine again.
Posted by: PulSamsara | January 1, 2008 1:16 PM"
Pul.
I wish it were so, but America is not a democracy, it's a winner take all Republic.
Therein lies the problem.
I will happily vote for Obama myself, though by the time the so called primary 'elections' roll around to my state it won't make a farts difference in Hell.
Posted by: C.Morris | January 1, 2008 8:51 PM
If Obama wins with the help of republicans and independents, then it will emphasize the message of unity that he promotes.
As far as being the most electable goes, Obama is ahead in head-to-head match-ups against every single republican candidate. To reasonable democrat caucus-goers who want, above all else, to avoid another republican white house in 08, Obama's edge in electabilty should persuade one to vote "Obama"
Posted by: Bobby | January 2, 2008 12:20 AM
I don't understand all the fuss about newspaper polls in Iowa. They don’t give a single clue regarding the number of people who will actually show up and participate in the caucuses. During the last two or three election cycles, participation in the caucuses has involved a very low percentage of registered voters. This is probably due to the fact that caucusing in Iowa is a very time consuming and awkward process of bickering and dickering over candidates. And its freezing!
The bottom line is that winning and losing in Iowa depends entirely on what percentage of a candidate’s backers show up. It's anyone's wild guess how that will shake down.
Posted by: John W. | January 2, 2008 9:43 AM
Am I first? First to Say , THE DES MOINES REGISTER POLL WAS SPOT ON !!!
Posted by: Gabe | January 4, 2008 5:06 PM
The Des Moines Register poll WAS wrong. Obama didn't win by 7 points...
HE WON BY EIGHT POINTS.
Hillary is done. I love it.
Posted by: Cyrus A | January 5, 2008 2:42 PM