by Christi Parsons
Last night, the new Des Moines Register poll had good news for Democrat Barack Obama.
This morning, two new polls are buoying spirits over at the rival Hillary Clinton Iowa camp.
The new data also offers hope for both Republicans leading among caucus goers, all of which makes only one thing clear: two days before voters weigh in, both of these races are very tight. Much depends on the candidates' end ground games.
Here are the highlights:
CNN is reporting that, among Iowa Democrats, Clinton has the most support, with 33 percent of likely caucus-goers in her corner. But Obama has 31 percent in the poll, which is well within the poll's margin of error. John Edwards follows in this poll at 22 percent.
And Reuters is reporting that, in their new C-SPAN/Zogby poll, Clinton leads Obama 30 percent to 26 percent, with Edwards in third with 25.
Last night, the Register had Obama on the move over Clinton, 32 to 25.
Meanwhile, on the Republican side, Reuters says their poll has Mike Huckabee widening his lead over Mitt Romney, 29 to 25 percent, and the Register has Huckabee with 32 percent to Romney's 26.
But CNN finds Romney with 31 and Huckabee at 28, a statistical dead heat.
Emails to supporters are going out like crazy this morning, with each camp spreading its good news before caucus goers make too much of the polls with the bad news -- especially those who don't look good in the influential Register report.
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Comments
It is important thru all the hoopla to remember that the Iowa caucus is about selecting the people to govern the country 2009-2013.
The contradictory poll results show that the pollsters are having trouble identifying caucus goers and that there is still volatility among the voters.
What is clear is that the Iowa Caucus race is unlikely to be definitive among the Democratic front-runners.
It is also clear from Iowa- and NH, SC and NV will confirm this- the Dem race is between three candidates: Edwards, Clinton and Obama.
Since pollsters will face the same problem throughout the campaign of identifying primary voters and voter volatility; it is senseless to use the polls exclusively as the predictors of victory either in the various primaries or for the November general election.
A more important indicator of candidates' success in the primaries and general election will be the candidates' ground organization.
Strong grassroots organization has kept Edwards in the game in Iowa and may well propel him to an early victory there.
Overall, with her strong level of support among Democratic pary officials and activists, Hilary Clinton has the best ground organizations nationally.
This gives her the best shot at
* surviving the early winnowing process,
* taking a lead in the large early primary states,
* securing the nomination,
* beating the GOP nominee in the general election,and
* assisting down ballot candidates in the mid-West and Western battleground states.
Senator Clinton has the best potential to lead a strong Democratic Party caucus into the 111th Congress and to begin the repair work resulting from the Bush debacles.
Unless the country has such sstrong and determined leadership, the damage inflicted by the Bush debacles will be long lasting and crippling.
Posted by: robert chapman | January 1, 2008 2:08 PM
Mitt Romney was able to promote change in the bluest of states by compromising core Republican stances on Gun Control, Abortion, and Gay rights issues. Selling the farm for political gain is Mitt's mode of operations.
Also, Mitt may not officially support amnesty for illegal aliens, however Mitt is the only Republican candidate to hire illegal aliens at his place of residence. The Republican base cannot support this sort of traitor.
Posted by: Anonymous | January 1, 2008 2:14 PM
Somebody please put a fork in the Clinton Machine...
It's done.
America is a Democracy - Not a Monarchy.
No more failed Presidents elected on the back of Nepotism.
Barack Obama for President of the United States of America.
It's time to Rise and Shine again.
Posted by: PulSamsara | January 1, 2008 2:37 PM
Edwards' numbers are deceptively LOW.
Those people Obama and Hillary are HOPING will come out are mostly imaginary.
When the rubber mets the highway, John Edwards will win!
Posted by: Oscar | January 1, 2008 2:39 PM
Senator Clinton would be the best nominee for the democratic party. She has Bill Clinton and a wide range of experiences.
Obama has no experience and just experimental for our country. Young Americans want him because Obama don't support any war. I think Barack Hussien Obama would make America a secular progressive state.
Posted by: connie erickson | January 5, 2008 12:30 AM