Poll: Recession monster not scary to most people

Frank, the answer to this purported dilemma is easy.

The economy has had record months of consecutive growth. We aren't in any recession. And people know that from their personal lives.

However, they hear on tv and read in the crisis-every-five-minutes newspapers all this doom and gloom, so they think that OTHER people ARE hurting.

To give but one example of media doom and gloom reporting (or in this case, non-reporting), the non-partisan Congressional Budge Office forecast that there won't be a recession next year. And that a so-called "stimulus" package to prevent this recession wasn't necessary. This good news the Chicago Tribune buried.

The driveby media and Democrat liberals have gone on and on about credit crisis, mortgage crisis everythings a crisis. They talk about the homeless when a Democrat is President the drivebys never talk about the homeless.
This sky is falling mantra is ginned up to stir people to vote for the socialists/Democrats who the drivebys favor.
The Dems will ruin our country by raising taxes on everybody while they keep up their anti-capitalist rant. Jerry White, Springfield, IL

Does this mean the media drumbeat of the recession monster on the horizon has fallen on deaf ears? No economics expert with any sense has used the recession word but that hasn't stopped the media from raising it repeatedly, apparently in the hopes of giving Democrats an issue now that Iraq is fading away.

I love it. Of course there is no problem with the economy, it's all in our minds claim the head in the sand republicans. Would this be any indication of WHY we're in this mess? Vote republican and win a free pair of rose colored glasses.

Jerry White, blaming the "drive by media." But wait there's more "The Dems will ruin our country by raising taxes on everybody while they keep up their anti-capitalist rant." Jerry White, Springfield, IL

Posted by: Jerry White | January 25, 2008 9:35 AM

Jerry the bridge to nowhere awaits you!!!

http://www.heritage.org/Research/Budget/wm889.cfm

The anxiety Wall Street is feeling from the mortgage crisis, housing slump and high oil prices is resonating with more than two-thirds of adults surveyed, who think the economy is performing badly.

The key word in this is"adults". That is probably why Jerry has a problem with it.

You see, there is no recession, no matter how bad William Neikirk and his friends want one. The economy could be better, most certainly, but as usual surveys show a clear majority of people see their own situation as being just fine.
But the scare-mongering, recession-loving media will just keep pushing the point until everyone believes there is a recession and then one actually happens.
Shoot, Mr. Neikirk has been talking recession for seven years now.

Poor Longstreet, er Bruce and Jerry White,
Even Republicans admit that the economy is not doing well. I pity your ignorance.

But the scare-mongering, recession-loving media will just keep pushing the point until everyone believes there is a recession and then one actually happens.
Posted by: John D | January 25, 2008 10:15 AM

Ya gotta love this. Scare-mongering....this coming from the party that would replay 9/11 everyday to promote hatred of the muslims. These posters wouldn't even live next to someone with "strange" sounding names and clothes. John D..the new punksatony phil says there will be a long winter..he is afraid of his shadow.

As long as commercial construction continues to post gains the losses in the housing market can be recouped. I do worry if commercial begins to go the way of residential. However, there are no signs of that. Architectural billings are up, office rents are steady and the market has responded well to the interest rate cuts. Ben Bernanke knows what he's doing.

Little Johnny D,
You don't know you're in a recession until after the fact. Remember during the 2000 election, the Democrats accused the Republics of "talking down the economy" and everything was fine? Turns out there was a recession. Democrats were wrong then and head in the sand Republics are wrong now.

Jeff,with that being said,what advice do you have for my Republican brother in law,who is a staunch sheep and suburban carpenter.

His small business is dying and his son,also a carpenter is in financial hell.

Should that cheer him up because Commercial is doing well?

Anyway,he'll probably blame it on Clinton!

Corporatist Jeff has spoken,
Screw those little people behind on their mortgage or who are being foreclosed on. Overall the values of homes has dropped for the first time since the Real Estate industry began tracking the data in the 60s. The news could not be better for solid gold Jeff. Is your mongrammed bathrobe made of Egyptian cotton or silk?

Unlike residential construction, commercial construction gets planned and financed years in advance, and thus is not a particularly useful indicator of the strength of the economy.

Of course, we're used to Jeff grasping at straws for whatever Republicant apology/rationalization is needed at the moment, so this particular red herring is unsurprising.

Am I hearing this right? Did Raving Loon's sister marry a republican? I like her already!

In all seriousnees, Loon, I'd suggest your brother in law look for some sub-contracting work on office, retail, or hotel/hospitality projects. Those markets haven't been hit by the housing downturn yet and there's been a HUGE shortage of skilled carpenters on all projects for about the last 10 years. Check out this article on the shortage of skilled workers: http://www.topbuildingjobs.com/news.php?articleID=27

The average age of a skilled laborer (including carpentry) is 50 and the industry is offering all kinds of bonuses for experienced subs on these projects. The new generation of "coffeehouse" branch banks, in particular, have a lot of cabinetry and other features that require a skilled carpenter. He should use subhub.com or topbuildingjobs.com and other sites that match subcontractors with the projects where they're needed.

I hope his business recovers and begins to thrive and I wish him good luck. The lack of skilled carpentry small businesses is really hampering the construction industry as a whole and people like him (and especially his son, your nephew) are in high demand.

I hope you and he find this advice helpful.

Loon, here's another link explaining the worker shortage and how it'll get worse once the baby boomers retire:http://www.acppubs.com/article/CA6501543.html

p.s. John, I'm a silk man through and through!

Listen folks,

An economy that is not "doing well" is not necessarily an economy in recession. A "recession" means a GDP with negative grown for two or more quarters. We haven't yet had that much decline in GDP yet. The third and fourth quarters of 2007 sustained positive growth in the GDP. So, no, it’s not true that we won’t know we’re in one until it happens. We would be able to see it coming, and it hasn’t happened yet.

I think its important that we not panic. If we are not headed for a recession, we can still talk ourselves into one. If everyone is so darned convinced that a recession is looming, then too many investors, worried about impending doom, might re-invest their money in something they view as "safer." If enough of this happens, industries could be deprived of the capital needed to sustain positive growth, and we will have contributed to the slow-down in the GDP, or even a recession, where neither result might not otherwise occur.

ERRATA FOR LAST POST

the last clause of the last sentence should have read:

“ . . . , where either result might not otherwise occur.”

Sorry. Not enough coffee yet.

John W, thanks for beating me to it. I was going to explain the economic definition of a recession to Janet and other posters who are incorrectly throwing their opinions out there, but we both know that reality or the truth won't stop them.

A Blinkin, of course commercial gets planned years out, but I never said that was an indicator of the overall strength of the economy. I said that the credit crunch and the housing collapse has not affected it. I, too, worry that it could bring that market down eventually, but commercail s still going strong and housing's been tanking for close to a year now.

If the housing and credit crunch isn't affecting commercial it's certainly a good sign. Sorry, pal, no red herring there.

Loon, your sister and brother-in-law seem like good people. I take it you are the black sheep the family, then?

Anyway, Jeff is correct. Most trades are crying for skilled workers: plumbing, electrical, hvacr. Young folks aren't entering them because there is hard work and because high school counselors would rather steer every student to a four-year college, whether they belong in one or not.
Many people also look for good handy men to do various fix-up jobs, remodeling, etc.

"The economy has had record months of consecutive growth."

Where do you Wingnuts get this "data?" How could it be "record growth" if it doesn't even come close to matching the previous business expansion?

The economy expanded continually between 1991-2 and 4th quarter 2000. That's 8-9 years of consecutive growth.

Bush inherited a mild recession, but growth didn't pick up until 2003. Even using the most Bush-friendly start and end points, the current expansion has lasted less than 6 years. And of course, during that time productivity has exploded while wages stagnate, corporate profits have exploded while wages stagnate, and unemployment has remained relatively low while wages stagnate. Oh, and debt exploded. And the excessive borrowing and structural budget deficits have led to their logical conclusion- inflation. Inflation was at its highest point in 18 years last quarter. I'm sure that's great news for most of us.

Talk to me in three years about whether this expansion breaks any records. We've got a long way to go, and I don't think its going to be pretty for the next couple of years.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke urges the White house and congress to enact a stimulus package, and Bush, never one to do anything in bipartisan fashion, also urges congress to act. The result? The drive-by liberal media fanning panic by reporting what Bernanke and Bush have said and done.

Oh OK, there's no looming recession and everything is just fine, because a couple of 20-something rightwing bloggers on the Chicago Tribune blogosphere said so. Silly us for believing that ultra-liberal Bernanke.

One last time;

'It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job.
It's a depression whey you lose yours.'
H.Truman

* * *
"But the scare-mongering, recession-loving media will just keep pushing the point until everyone believes there is a recession and then one actually happens.
Posted by: John D | January 25, 2008 10:15 AM"

Bill r,
I guess Crazy John Devola doesn't remember how GWB and Co. gleefully talked the economy into the dumper back in 2000'.

I am 52 years-old who has written to nearly every government entity - local, state, and federal - along with many presidential candidates, about my own personal financial recession. Because the last eight years have been more about the politics of words or semantics, and not of action, there is no greater joy I can imagine for myself than to die in my sleep very soon. In that way, I would not have to wake each and every day to face the excruciating pain of my physical disabilities, as well as the horrible emotional pain of my financial issues. I live on a small disability income that the private insurance company can terminate without cause at any time. My income will stop at age 62. Because I was forced to pay many of my enormous medical bills by cashing in my paltry retirement account, I have absolutely nothing to live on when I do turn 62. And, until that time, my medical costs that include private health insurance (premium, deductible, and 20% of actual charges), now average 63% of my income and will only get worse with age. I can't change insurance companies, in spite of the ever-increasing premiums and reduction in coverage, because nearly all of my medical problems would be considered preexisting conditions. I cannot handle one or two-hundred thousand a year on a $30,000 disability income. But, instead of any politician actually trying to resolve issues of healthcare, income disparity, housing, loans, and the tax structure, we’ve had eight years of being told what "will be" done as a means of stalling, of avoiding ever DOING ANYTHING. In other words, the Bush Administration has mastered the art of using words (Bush's speaking ability excluded), and masterfully withheld doing anything helpful for Americans so that they could pawn it off on the next administration. It’s more than ironic that this administration can take swift action when they want to alter the Constitution, take away rights from Americans, or hide their activities in the course of governing, but when it comes to doing what’s right…they are unable to act. Somebody please shoot me and put me out of my misery.

Well, John W, at least you can admit a mistake.

Question 45 states that 2/3 of the respondents think the economy is performing badly, while question 50 says that 2/3 of the respondents feel secure in their personal finances.

This goes back to the old story of just getting beatin' over the head with the same old "bad economy" story.

Question: Do any of the people who think the economy is doing well actually participate in the economy? By that I mean are actively employed and have medical insurance at risk. (The 1960s don't count.) What US industries do you think are doing well?

When I read Dec. retail sales plunged by less than one half of one percent, I knew the media were still trying to scare the ignorant masses. With Thanksgiving day early last year sales were spread over an earlier time span. Consumer sales weren't always so large a percentage of our economy; exports are nudging them down through large increases.