By Mark Silva
ORLANDO – Here are some closing, perhaps predictive, thoughts about what the campaign for the votes of this bellwether state of Florida has to say about the presidential election of 2008.
Rudy Giuliani once was viewed as the Republican Party’s front-runner here in Florida, the first mega-state to have its say this year.
After Florida’s hard-fought vote, Sen. John McCain now stakes a credible claim to the mantle of the front-runner in his party. And Giuliani, who had the most to lose here, is quickly readjusting to the reality of this race with an expected endorsement of McCain today in California, the mega-state of all mega-states.
The race got rough here – with McCain ridiculing Romney as a flip-flopper and Romney portraying McCain as a faux Republican. The race may get a lot rougher before it is finished, for Romney, who has invested many millions of his own personal fortune in this campaign, shows no signs of recognizing the reality which Giuliani is quickly confronting. Giuliani kept his head above the fray, campaignng relentlessly posiitively, even as he faced certain defeat.
McCain won big here in Florida.
The overall numbers may not say it, for this was a close race by the numbers – not of “landslide proportions,’’ as McCain put it last night.
But look closer: McCain beat Romney throughout a wide swath of the central corridor of this state that traditionally has served as a swing-voting determinant of national elections – from Tampa to Daytona Beach.
Romney won in the well-to-do southwest quarters of Naples and Fort Myers, where the appeal of this successful multimillionaire is natural, and he won in Jacksonville, a solidly Republican, conservative sanctuary. But McCain trounced Romney and Giuliani in Miami, where the Cuban-American community had once favored Giuliani. These are voters who went for Ronald Reagan bigtime -- he set the high-water mark for Republicans in the Cuban community, and many of the younger generation are going Democrat. Thee are voters the GOP will need in November.
In November, and a lot of Republican voters in Florida made this calculation, it will take someone who can claim the middle ground to win the White House. If the Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton, who holds the Democratic Party’s most fervent base, the Republicans will need someone who can beat her on the middle ground, not on the fringes. If the Democrats nominate Barack Obama, who appeals to that middle ground and even holds the potential for luring some Republicans, the Republicans will need someone who can compete with him on the middle ground.
McCain, whose political successes in the 2000 campaign were built on his appeal to independent voters and whose early successes in 2008 were built on the same appeal, offers the GOP someone who can compete with the Democrats. Romney, who hopes to salvage his campaign with an appeal to the party’s conservative base, cannot make the same claim.
The campaign here in Florida grew heated, and nasty. McCain questioned Romney’s very judgment. Romney ridiculed McCain as a liberal in conservative clothing. The contest ahead, reaching from coast to coast in the mere week that remains before “Super Tuesday,” could grow a lot more nasty. if McCain and Romney continue along the same course.
Or, as realists such as Giuliani confront the campaign, the GOP may coalesce around a candidate gaining credentials as the electable one.
A Republican voter here in Orlando, Brian Smith, complained with his vote for McCain that his party has “left him’’ – the president has pushed a social agenda that overlooks the sensibilities of voters such as him.
Giuliani, who conceded last night that his party is a big one – big enough for even him, the pro-choice, pro-gay-rights, pro-gun control big-city mayor – is swiftly conceding to the reality of the upside-down race in which he once reigned and in which McCain now reigns.
The question is how long it will take Romney to stop writing the personal checks that are fueling an uphill contest against the new king of the hill. Or, if he succeeds in more contests on Super Tuesday, how rough the remaining fight will be. The question is how long it will take the rest of the Republican Party to make the same calculation that Giuliani and a lot of Florida Republicans bave made: Aligning with a candidate who apparently will be able to give the Democrats a run for their money in November.
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Comments
Be very afraid of Fred Thompson, oh wait,,, be afraid of Rudy Guiliani,, um, no, Mitt is the MAN!!! Ok McCain - wow the Liberals are just shaking in there boots now!!!
Posted by: gus | January 30, 2008 8:15 AM
We're with you, Brian. We're going to take this party back to the principles of Teddy Roosevelt and Abraham Lincoln and senator McCain is just the man to do it.
We're going to end the gridlock and make government work again. The Bruces and the Jerry Whites had their chance and they'v e failed miserably. Now it's our turn.
Romney will get more desperate and nasty in the week before Super Tuesday, but it won't help. Senator McCain is poised to take all the big Super Tuesday prizes (New York, New Jersey, California, Illinois). This is it. We've got the message and the man to bring this party back together. Nothing's going to stop us now. Not Romney, Not Obama, and certainly not Hillary.
Posted by: Jeff | January 30, 2008 8:58 AM
This is it. We've got the message and the man to bring this party back together. Nothing's going to stop us now. Not Romney, Not Obama, and certainly not Hillary.
Posted by: Jeff
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You sure are intoxicated with this one-state victory. I wonder what the result would have been if it were a two man race. That other 30% sure wouldn't have split evenly.
As for the general election, what message does McCain have, Jeff, other than more of the same? America is not going to vote republican this year and they certainly aren't going to vote for someone who has NO policy differences with Bush.
Posted by: Bruce Y | January 30, 2008 10:16 AM
As a conservative, I don't know why McCain is being considered President and not convicted of treason. Torture works people. John McCain was tortured. He was in enemy hands for 5 years. Do you think they kept him around that long because he wasn't passing along useful information. I am convinced we would've ended that war had the enemy not "known" where our next offensive was going to take place.
Posted by: sam | January 30, 2008 10:39 AM
I can't wait until America finds out who the real McCain is. Right now all they know is that the adoring, fawning media calls him a "maverick". Case in point, Rudy was dubbed "America's mayor" and when he was forced under the media spotlight when he was the frontrunner, America then found out he is a scumbag. Same with McCain. Ask 100 Americans right now what Keating Five and John McCain have in common and 95%-99% will assume John McCain led the fight to put the so called Keating Five behind bars because they've been told he's "tough" and "principled" and does what is "right" not what is "popular". He may have fought for campaign finance reform, but only because he lacks ethical standards so much that he cannot keep his hand out of the cookie jar and run clean campaigns. He's like the child molester who volunteers to have the courts remove his manhood because he knows its the only way to stop him from being aroused by children. This is just one example why McCain the actual person is very different from the media creation he's known as today.
Posted by: jackson | January 30, 2008 10:53 AM
Bruce Y, this is actually the fourth state McCain has won (New Hampshire, South Carolina, Louisana and Florida). Everyone knows what the stakes were in Florida, even the Mormom Pseudo-Conservative sunk twice as much money into it as the McCain campaign.
This primary was the catapult into Super Tuesday. With Giuliani's endorsement no one goes into Super Tuesday with more momentum than McCain. With wins in high population states like New York, New Jersey, California and Illinois McCain will be three-quarters of the way to the nomination.
Sam, you're a very pathetic, sad little person. I hope the Mormon Pseudo-Conservative is paying you a lot for your slander.
Posted by: Jeff | January 30, 2008 11:13 AM
Let us look at McCain’s conservative credentials:
-IMMIGRATION: he wrote the bill granting amnesty to illegal immigrants (co-sponsored by Ted Kennedy)
-SOCIAL SECURITY: he voted to give your social security money to illegal immigrants
-TAXES: he voted against the Bush tax cuts multiple times (he has since flip-flopped and has campaigned as a lifelong tax-cutter)
-RHETORIC: he routinely engages in Democratic class warfare against big companies in America, particularly the “evil” drug companies who research cures to debilitating diseases for a profit
-ECONOMY: as recently as December 2007 he admitted “he does not know the economy very well” and needed to get better at it
-1ST AMENDMENT: he wrote the McCain-Feingold campaign finance bill that was declared to be an unconstitutional infringement of the 1st Amendment (co-sponsored by ultra-liberal Democrat Russ Feingold)
-2ND AMENDMENT: he was called the “worst 2nd amendment candidate” by the president of the NRA
-ENERGY TAX: wrote a bill (co-sponsored by his buddy Lieberman) imposing a massive tax on energy which, according to the Department of Energy, would drastically raise the price of gasoline and put 300,000 Americans out of work
-GLOBAL WARMING: supports radical global warming legislation which involved him voting with every Democrat; think only America is responsible to take action, not other superpowers
-JUDGES: he joined forces with Democrats (Gang of 14) to block the Senate Republican’s attempt to confirm conservative, strict constructionist judges
-WAR ON TERROR: fought with Hillary Clinton to demand that terrorists be given a full American trial
-GAY MARRIAGE: he joined liberals to fight against a federal marriage amendment supporting the institution of traditional marriage
-CHRISTIANS: campaigning in 2000, he famously described Christian leaders as “agents of intolerance”
-PRO-LIFE: he filed an amicus brief against pro-life advocates in Wisconsin
-BI-PARTISANSHIP: he met with leading Democrats in 2004 to discuss the possibility of being John Kerry’s Vice-President
-PROFESSIONAL ETHICS: ringleader of the infamous Keating 5 ethical scandal which cost US tax payers $160 billion (Google it)
-PERSONAL ETHICS: McCain cheated on his first wife after she had a severe accident that left her partially disabled. He then divorced her and married his multi-millionaire mistress, whose daddy bought McCain a spot in the Congress
I use to support Huckabee, but a vote for him now means a vote for McCain AMNESTY. Vote Romney to save the conservative movement from the New York Time's favorite Republican, Juan McCain.
Posted by: Dan | January 30, 2008 11:53 AM
Jeff, Bruce Y hates McCain because Bruce Y is a Loony Lefty, not because he is a Romney supporter.
Posted by: John D | January 30, 2008 12:09 PM
Don't fool yourself, if OBAM gets the Demo nomination, the Republican nominee will rip him to shreads over the Rozko issue as well as his other underhanded politics in IL. He has a lot in his background that will help him lose in the final moments.
It is too bad that the blog doesn't post my comments it would be interesting to hear others comments on my comments.
Posted by: rfb | January 30, 2008 12:10 PM
Why is Jeff injecting religion in his attacks on Romney? Is that that the McCain sanctioned strategy?
Posted by: jethro | January 30, 2008 12:25 PM
sam, I've heard quite a few attacks on McCain from both the far left and the far right, but this one is new to me. Are you saying McCain betrayed his country while in captivity? Do you have any proof of this whatsoever? If so, please provide a credible, primary source (read - not a blog).
Posted by: Herbie H. | January 30, 2008 12:39 PM
Herbie H.,
The proof is torture works, if it doesn't why are we doing it? He was held for 5 years (thats a long time to hold someone if they are not giving you good intel), and suspiciously after he was captured American forces lost the element of surprise on the enemy. It was like they "knew" what we were going to do.
Posted by: sam | January 30, 2008 2:00 PM
Sam-
I'm no McCain supporter, but your theory is garbage.
McCain was a pilot, nothing more. He was hardly getting high level strategy briefings on upcoming US troop movements and attacks. He was told to go bomb someplace and he did it. That's all.
Posted by: Luke | January 30, 2008 2:26 PM
"BUSH SPEAKS"
I NEED ANOTHER SIGNING STATEMENT TO BE ADDED TO MY DEFENSE APPROPRIATIONS BILL. NO BLACK VOTES TO BE COUNTED IN THE GENERAL ELECTION. NO CHECKS AND BALANCES THIS TIME AROUND.
NO VOTES WILL BE COUNTED IF YOU LIVED IN ONE OF MY FEMA TRAILERS FOR MORE THAN SIX MONTHS. YOU STILL OWE ME.
JUST ANOTHER DAY IN THE PARK IN FLORIDA, RIGHT VITTER. NOTHING LIKE STICKING IT TO THE WOMEN OF THIS COUNTRY, RIGHT VITTER.
RUSS FIENGOLD IS NOT ALLOWED ON THE WHITE HOUSE GROUNDS UNLESS WE ARE ALL OUT OF THE COUNTRY. HIM WITH THAT CENSOR BUTTON OF HIS. WHO DOES HE THINK HE IS KATHERINE. KATHERINE, KATHERINE.
Posted by: Roger Morris | January 30, 2008 2:44 PM
http://americaphile.blogspot.com/2008/01/passing-mantle.html
FLORIDA REPUBLICANS HAVE FAILED TO LIVE UP TO THEIR PROPHETIC CALLING!!!!!!:
Rudy Giuliani told supporters Wednesday he's abandoning his bid for president and backing Republican rival and longtime friend John McCain.
Rep. Peter King, a New York Republican and adviser to Giuliani, said the former mayor called him this morning to tell him of his plan.
Giuliani "will be announcing his endorsement today," said King.
"I expect him to be fairly active for McCain. There is a real friendship and respect between the two," he said. A similar call took place between Giuliani and New York Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno.
"I spoke with Rudy Giuliani this morning and he confirmed that he is dropping out of the race and will endorse Senator John McCain for president," Bruno said in a statement.
ALTHOUGH FLORIDA FAILED TO HEED WISE COUNSEL IN THIS MATTER, WE MAY REJOICE IN THE PROPHETIC DIRECTION GIVEN TO US BY RUDY’S (21ST CENTURY ELIJAH!!!) ENDORSEMENT OF SENATOR JOHN MCCAIN (AMERICA’S ELISHA)!!!!
IT IS ALSO HEARTENING TO LEARN THAT SEN. MCCAIN COURAGEOUSLY QUIT THE APOSTATE ECUSA TO BECOME RAPTURE-READY!!!!!
THIS RAPTURE KNOWLEDGE WILL GIVE HIM A GOOD GROUNDING TO INFORM A SERIOUS FOREIGN POLICY AS IS OUTLINED IN THE BEAUTIFUL COULTER PLAN FOR MIDDLE EAST STABILITY!!!!
THANK YOU AGAIN, RUDY, FOR ALL THAT YOU’VE DONE TO KEEP PIAPS’ CRIMES AGAINST NEW YORK CITY AND AMERICA AT THE FOREFRONT OF THIS CAMPAIGN!!!! PLEASE CONTINUE TO STUDY THE MORNING AFTER….
….AND WE’LL SEE YOU AT THE RAPTURE!!!!!
Posted by: RALPH | January 30, 2008 3:54 PM
McCain will never get my vote for two reasons:
1) His support for that insane amnestry bill.
2) His willingness to have us spend "100 years" in Iraq. His quote!
I support Ron Paul, and will continue to do so. The others are not members of the Republican Party as I remember it.
Posted by: J. Cline | January 30, 2008 9:10 PM
McCain is a dream for the democrats to run against. That is why the media and "moderates" love him. McAmnesty can't win in November. Get ready for socialism, and 20 million uneducated new voters and welfare recipients.
Goodbye America.
Posted by: Glasnos | January 31, 2008 11:32 AM