Zogby poll: Obama still holds big SC lead: The Swamp
The Swamp
Posted January 24, 2008 10:33 AM
The Swamp

by Frank James

After New Hampshire, we're all more skeptical about polls although it should be said in their defense that they more often than not do a good job of predicting in which direction a political race is headed.

Given that disclaimer, there's a new Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby tracking poll that suggests John Edwards helped himself somewhat with his performance Monday night in the Democratic presidential candidates' debate and that Sen. Barack Obama is showing a little slippage while Sen. Hillary Clinton appears to be flat.

Here's what the Zogby polling outfit reports. Keep in mind the margin of error is plus or minus 3.4 percent:

Utica, NY – Illinois Sen. Barack Obama’s lead over New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has shrunk by four points overall and by nine points among black voters, during the last 24 hours of polling, but he retains a sizable edge, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby survey shows.

The telephone tracking poll taken Jan. 21-23 shows Obama with 39% support from likely Democratic voters, compared to Clinton’s 24% support. The three-day daily tracking survey included 811 likely Democratic primary voters across South Carolina and carries a margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points. In yesterday's tracking poll, Obama had 43% support to Clinton’s 25%.

So according to this poll, Obama still has a substantial lead in South Carolina of around 15 percentage points.

Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards still trails, but has gained four points and now has support from 19% of likely voters.

Obama still has a healthy lead among African American voters, but lost almost nine points since yesterday, dropping from 65% to 56% support among that group. Edwards, who registered no support from black voters the day before, picked up five points and Clinton added about two points to reach 18% of black support. Nearly one in five - 19% - of black voters said they were not sure for whom they would vote, which was up a point from the day before.

Obama lost nine points in one day with black voters? What's up with that? What changed on the ground in South Carolina that would cause that kind of volatility in a group that has been trending strongly towards him? Former Bill Clinton is good but is he that good? That nine percent drop seems fishy.

In the explanation of their methodology, the pollsters do say that the margin of error in the subgroups is larger than 3.4 percent. This nine percent shift may be an example of that. The Zogby press release continiues:

Obama, meanwhile, made gains among male voters, attracting 50% support, up from 42% the day before. Clinton held steady at 19% of male support, while Edwards leapt ahead of her, attracting 23% of male support, up from just 15% the day before. Obama continued to outdo Clinton among women, with 36% backing him to Clinton’s 29%.

The Illinois senator also had a slim lead over Clinton among voters over age 65, drawing 30% of their support, compared to Clinton’s 28%. Senior citizens and women have been groups that preferred Clinton in Nevada and New Hampshire. Obama continued dominate among the youngest voters, getting 42% of their number to Clinton’s 14%. Edwards beat Clinton in this category as well, taking the support of 25%.

If Obama is leading Clinton among women and over 65 voters in South Carolina, that has to be black voters producing those leads since in South Carolina, they make up 50 percent or more of the Democratic electorate.

As the Zogby summary indicates, Clinton crushed Obama in those categories in New Hampshire and Nevada and that may turn out to be the pattern in Feb 5 primary states with black populations that comprise a smaller part of Democratic voters than they do in South Carolina.

That's the challenge facing Obama in future states. But right now he appears to be holding on in South Carolina. If you believe the poll, that is.

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Comments

Florida is where it's at. Something the Clintons are painfully aware of. South Carolina could provide some big momentum for Barack. Florida is HUGE!!!


Obama needs to win SC.
The black people in SC or elsewhere needs to know that Clintons already written them off as a viable voting blocks. They identified a better alternative, Latinos. You see, while you are arguing among yourselves how black Barack is, the political tide is moving. Obama and Edwards cares about all the poor people and minorities. Clintons wants to create divisions among poor people and use it for their advantage. Clintons were successful in creating divisions between blacks and latinos. The voters in SC needs to know that and understands who is the true uniter who put forth a common agenda to improve poverties in America.


Why Hilary the Goldwater girl had her law school memoir sealed?

PEOPLE, NO MATTER WHERE YOU FROM OR WHICH ALLEGIANCE YOU HAVE, WE SHOULD ASK FOR HER LAW SCHOOL MEMOIR TO BE AVAILABLE TO THE PUBLIC SO WE CAN BETTER TRACK HER PAST. BECAUSE, BACK THEN, SHE WAS A FIERCE OPPONENT OF THE CIVIL RIGHT MOVEMENT AND A STRONG SEGREGATIONNIST.
HILARY! IT'S ALL AGAINST CHANGE


The interesting news in this poll is that Edwards is climbing, and perhaps fast. Zogby does a rolling poll, and there's no question that Edwards got a boost out of the debate early in the week. He could beat Clinton here, and perhaps by a decent margin. That would be a big story leaving SC and heading out into the Feb. 5 states -- a truly 3-way race.


Haha. In response to the comment from "Logic Prisoner", Florida is NOT huge. It is worth zero delegates and the Democrats are not campaigning there. Hillary would love for Florida to matter in the primary this year, but it doesn't, since the state is being penalized for moving the date up too far.


Senator Obama should win big on Saturday. I wonder why Hillary came back to SC one day early. She wasn't suppose to come back until Friday. Maybe their own polls show her losing big and they want to try and stop the slide. I can't believe polls anymore after NH, but I do believe that Obama will win BIG on Saturday.


Everyone Will observe that Hillary & Bill together is vigorously pursuing a politics of devision, even among their own democratic base. What does this mean for UNITY (bringing Republicans, Independents & Democrats together) as one nation: Proposed by Obama. It is quite obvious where the Clintons are leading us to. Division was in the HOUSE when Bill involved Monica in their marital affair & this resulted in division in the nation. It is this kind of division which Obama is fighting against, not only internally, but externally. Are these division agents best to lead our country at this time when unity is desperately needed & craved?


Boy would I love it if Edwards came in second. Would love to see Mrs. Clinton dead last.


go EDWARDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Why in the world no one has ever investigated the fact is, in 1963, not only was Hillary Clinton a republican, but she was also a staunch supporter of republican Senator Barry Goldwater, well known as a segregationist and one of the most vocal senators adamantly against the passing of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which is why he lost in his presidential bid to Lyndon B. Johnson?
She described herself in her memoirs as ‘an active Young Republican’ and ‘a Goldwater girl, right down to my cowgirl outfit.’


Everyone Will observe that Hillary & Bill together is vigorously pursuing a politics of devision, even among their own democratic base. What does this mean for UNITY (bringing Republicans, Independents & Democrats together) as one nation: Proposed by Obama. It is quite obvious where the Clintons are leading us to. Division was in the HOUSE when Bill involved Monica in their marital affair & this resulted in division in the nation. It is this kind of division which Obama is fighting against, not only internally, but externally. Are these division agents best to lead our country at this time when unity is desperately needed & craved?


Haha. In response to the comment from "Logic Prisoner", Florida is NOT huge. It is worth zero delegates and the Democrats are not campaigning there.

Posted by: Andy in Brooklyn | January 24, 2008 12:26 PM

Haha...just when you thought nobody was really paying attention!!!

Good job Andy!!!


Why do you say that it "has to be black voters" giving Obama the lead?

MAY I REMIND EVERYONE THAT OBAMA WON THE MOST DELEGATES IN NEVADA BECAUSE HE WON IN ALL THE WHITE RURAL AREAS? I was THERE in Nevada, and saw with my own eyes, burly, plaid flannel shirt wearing ranchers, line up for Barack Obama (yes-they were ALL white people).

PLEASE stop trying to marginalize Obama as "the black candidate". He was 25 points behind Hillary in SC just a couple moths ago. If he wins, it'll be a huge testament to his campaigning, and it WILL NOT be because only black folks voted for him.


I am 61 years old and voted my first time as a young soldier in Vietnam. This will make my tenth time and I have never been more excited or more concerned. Barack Obama offers America the chance to once again pursue its full potential yet, due largely to the filthy politics the Clintons are employing against him, he may not even be the Democratic candidate next November. I have never voted for a Republican but if Senator Obama isn't the Democratic candidate and doesn't decide to run as an Independent third party candidate as a result, I'll be voting Republican no matter who they choose to represent them. I will, under absolutely no circumstances, cast a vote to put another Clinton in the White House and I don't think I will be the only Democrat voting Republican if she is the candidate.


Good for Barack, but not my favorite. Go Hillary!


Bottom Line:

Like all of you. I know that health care is the most critical, and important issue facing the American people. Now, and in the coming elections. And like the vast majority of the American people, I want HR 676 (Medicare For All) passed into law NOW! "Single payer, Tax Supported, Not For Profit, True Universal Health Care" free for all as a right. Like every other developed country in the world has. See: http://www.house.gov/conyers/news_hr676.htm

“HR 676:
For church goers: less money to insur. companies and more to the church- lots more.
Srs on Medicare: save way over $100/wk. Because no more medigap, long term care & dental insur. needed. No more drug bills.”

But if we the American people fail to bring enough pressure on our current politicians to get HR 676 passed into law before the elections. We will have to identify, and replace all the politicians standing in the way of passage of HR 676. And, I think the best first place to start is with the politicians that blocked the bipartisan SCHIP bills for the kids. Passed by congress twice.

But what about the President. It was Bush after all that blocked the bipartisan SCHIP bill passed by congress to assure more health coverage for Americas kids. So which of the presidential hopefuls do I think will be most supportive of implementing the demand of the majority of the American people to have HR 676 (Medicare For All) passed into law immediately!

We have some very fine presidential candidates who would make good presidents. But none of the top Presidential candidates directly support HR 676, the only true Universal Health Care plan. So I am supporting Hillary Clinton. She is the only top candidate that has ever actually fought for universal health care before.

I have enormous admiration, and respect for Hillary Clinton. She fought a pitched battle against overwhelming odds back in 1993. To prevent this disastrous health care crisis that is now devastating the American people, and America. She fought so hard for the American people that she risk almost completely destroying her husbands presidency. I haven't forgotten her heroic effort. If any Presidential hopeful for universal health care deserves my support, it's her.

Also, if we the American people fail to bring enough pressure on our government to give us HR 676 which we all so desperately need NOW! Then we will need the most skilled politician we can get on our side to broker the best health care plan for the American people that we can get. Though it will be less than we need, and less than we deserve. The politician I think to best do this is Hillary Clinton. The Clinton's are probably the most skilled politicians in American history.

The insurance industry, and medical industry that has been ripping you off, and killing you has given Hillary Clinton so much money because they fear her. They have also given Barack Obama so much money because they fear Hillary Clinton. They think they can manipulate Barack Obama against the best interest of the American people better than they can manipulate Hillary Clinton. There is no race issue with Hillary Clinton. The Clinton's are the poster family for how African Americans want white people to be towards African Americans.

As always, African Americans are suffering, and dieing in this health care crisis at a much higher rate than any other group in America. The last time there was any significant drop in the African American death rate was when Bill Clinton was president.

My fellow Americans, you are dieing needlessly at an astounding rate. In higher numbers than any other people in the developed world. Rich, and poor a like. Insured, and uninsured. Men, women, children, and babies. And we the American people must stop it. And fix it NOW! Keep Fighting!!! Never! give up hope. There are millions of lives at stake. Bless you all... You are doing great!


Haha. In response to the comment from "Logic Prisoner", Florida is NOT huge. It is worth zero delegates and the Democrats are not campaigning there.

Posted by: Andy in Brooklyn | January 24, 2008 12:26 PM

I think LP was joking Andy in Brooklyn.

"It's great to be back here. Wherever the hell I am, I always have a great time when I'm here."


I am happy to see that Edwards is climbing in the polls after the debates. I made the decision after watching it that he is the candidate who actually cares about the people in this country and can win across many states. I wish we had an early vote in North Carolina - but mainly, I just hope voters realize the power they have and that it is NOT too late to endorse a candidate that hasn't come in 1st.


SC doesn't reflect the rest of the nation, but it does represent the inclinations of the southern states which have in the past voted Republican with their strong evangelical backgrounds.

Obama may win the black vote, but again it would be from young blacks; I sould venture to say older minority voters and women will go with Hillary. The blue collar whites will probably support Edwards. It may well turn out that SC will end up representing the gender and racial inclinations of the South.


bill clinton is an embarasement to all democrats.
i wonder if hillary will ever tell him to shut up.
this is america not pakistan, we shouldnt allow dynasties to exist, republican or democratic


You young people out there as potential Obama supporters need to be sure to vote. Us old fogies are to much in CLINg-ON camp (not this girl tho') so please make the time/take the time. Show your power make yOUr voice heard! BIllarY put the CROWN down!


Yea to those who think that the Florida primary matters should take a look at Michigan....BECAUSE IT IS THE SAME THING. Obama will gain HUGE momentum from SC which, i believe, will make it a very very close race


Obama stands for change in america. we need it from our economy to our schools. Please vote for change, The clintons are all ready showing us what their really about, lies and distortions of the truth. Do that remind you of anyone?(bush)! Please wake up and help yourself and the rest of America thats asleep. Don't believe the hype or the trickery that the media is spinning, this is not a game . obama for change!


Edwards does not get much media attention but his ratings go up after every debate. He's the one who sets high standards every time.


Bill Clinton is an ego maniac and a complete fraud. Sadly, I voted for him twice. What a sad, sad couple they make. If Obama can't beat them back this year then I'm voting for McCain and will wait for Obama in '12. Shame on you Bill -- it was about hope you dope!


Bill Clinton is an ego maniac and a complete fraud. Sadly, I voted for him twice. What a sad, sad couple they make. If Obama can't beat them back this year then I'm voting for McCain and will wait for Obama in '12. Shame on you Bill -- it was about hope you dope!


Barack means nothing. He's a sweet talker with no substance. You're wasting your giving your vote to a candidate who has no experience and no proven record of good leadership. Hillary is a smart woman and has record experience in making good change.


Actually Florida is completely meaningless -- it provides no delegates to the convention, and not a single candidate has campaigned there. This is a result of Florida moving its date up from 2/5 (same thing that happened to Michigan).


We are not choosing smart woman but visionary, inspiring leader who will bring people together to solve problems. Above all for change. Not for the same old thing. I do not mind voting for woman but not Hillary. She is divisive legislature at best.


I was ready to support whoever the democrats elected. I also voted for Bill twice and thought a great deal of him. The last two weeks has given me a glimse of what my republicans friends told me for years about the Clintons that I would not believe. I am disgusted by the "politics as usual" tactics - almost like a page out of Karl Rove's campain manual. I add that to the fact that all my republican friends WANT Hillary and are scared of Obama makes me wonder...but then watching her in the SC debate and hearing Bill lie about Obama I decided no matter what I refuse to give the Clinton's another vote. Go Edwards! I hope he beats her in SC! If she wins the nomination I will vote for McCain!


I was ready to support whoever the democrats elected. I also voted for Bill twice and thought a great deal of him. The last two weeks has given me a glimse of what my republican friends told me for years about the Clintons that I would not believe. I am disgusted by the "politics as usual" tactics - almost like a page out of Karl Rove's campain manual. I add that to the fact that all my republican friends WANT Hillary and are scared of Obama makes me wonder...but then watching her in the SC debate and hearing Bill lie about Obama I decided no matter what I refuse to give the Clinton's another vote. Go Edwards! I hope he beats her in SC! If she wins the nomination I will vote for McCain!


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