The Swamp
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Posted February 17, 2008 7:00 AM
The Swamp

by Mark Silva

Since January alone, the public’s perception about the state of the economy has plummeted – with just 17 percent calling the nation’s economy excellent or good – down from 26 percent last month. The percentage rating the economy poor has grown from 28 to 45 percent.

This is the landscape on which a historic presidential election campaign is playing out – historic in that either a woman or an African-American will be representing the Democratic Party on the ballot this fall, and the first time in decades that a sitting president or vice president has not appeared on that ballot.

Both Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are turning their attention toward the economy now, as the contest between them boils down to a delegate by delegate fight in working class warrens, in Wisconsin this week, and in Ohio and Texas in two weeks.

Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, is paying closer attention to national security questions at the moment, though McCain, who was faulted by his Republican rivals in the primaries for not knowing more about the economy, ultimately must focus his attention there as well.

The president last week signed a $168-billion economic stimulus bill which promises cash in the pockets of taxpayers this spring, in an attempt to give the slowing economy a “booster shot.’’ Economists, however, say that whatever short-term benefit this offers, perhaps boosting the nation’s Gross Domestic Product by as much as a percentage point later this year, it will only make a likely recession somewhat “shallower.’’

Not only is the national perception of the economy darkening. “There has been a modest rise in the proportion of Americans who view their own finances negatively, though personal financial ratings continue to be more positive than opinions of the overall economy,’’ the Washington-based Pew Center reports. “A majority of Americans (53 percent) now say their financial situation is only fair or poor, up from 49 percent in January.

“Fully 58 percent of the public says that their incomes are falling behind the rising cost of living,’’ Pew reports. “This compares with just 44 percent who expressed this view in September 2007. And the impact of the real estate slump is becoming apparent to American homeowners. The percentage of homeowners reporting that their home has increased in value during the past few years has fallen from 84 percent in October 2006 to 67 percent currently.

"The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, conducted Jan. 30 throug -Feb. 2 among 1,502 adults, finds that several factors are driving the public's economic pessimism, including concerns about the availability of jobs as well as problems in the housing market. However, rising prices -- for gasoline or energy, healthcare, or overall inflation -- are mentioned most frequently as the nation's biggest economic problem.''

Read more about this survey that provides the setting for an election campaign ahead, at the Pew Center.

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Comments

The time is long overdue for many Americans to realize the financial ill health of our nation.

The decline of quality jobs, abysmal savings rates, credit card debt, the housing crisis, sky rocketing cost of fuel.

We've got big problems.

Unfortunately, there's no escaping the political root issues for so many of these problems.

For example: The disaster called Iraq. If the money spent on this needless war were put into our nation's much needed infrastucture overhaul, companies doing this kind of work would employ more people, they'd buy more equipment/materials and the money would get pumped right back into the countries economy for a much needed expenditure.


RNC ideas:
1)Stay the course
2)Give the tax breaks to the rich. They know how to use the money better than the American people. (pee on)(trickle down).
3)Elect a candidate that says he knows nothing of economics


The economy is running on the last months of this current economic cycle of over 6 years of growth.

If you read the survey, President Bush leads in the blame game followeed by Congress. What would be interesting is if the pollesters had asked the people WHY they believe President Bush is to blame? WHY they believe Congress is to blame? WHY they believe Large Corporations are to balme? WHY they labor unions are to blame? These answers would not only have been interesting, most of them would have been down right comical.


Underlying this all is the deception that the accounting regulations has created and is the biggest- unspoken financial deception on tax payers in history.

The massive retirement benefits to our state employees. Far greater than any employee benefit package in the private sector.

And because the accounting regulations treat private employers differently than government employers the cost is not fully known as it has never been required to be reported.

That's right- Off Balance Sheet costs.

But this puts ENRON deception in the minor leagues -

The PEW center Released a Report in December 07 outlining their state by state estimates. In some states they also include the teacher portion but in most states this number excludes that cost.

Bottom line is on top of all these problems- Housing, war, sub-prime mortgage we are about to get the actual costs, now required to be disclosed will come out in early 09- Estimates indicate a likely $2 TRILLION dollars of UN Funded Retirement Liabilities.

This cost is an absolute cost - there are no benefits to the tax payer as these cost all go to retire government employees on top of the retirement contributions that the tax payers thought they already paid.

It varies by state to state-

New Jersey is a great example- struggalling to deal with 32 billion dollars of auterized dept the citizans of new jersey owe an estimated 109 billion dollars more to the retired workers.

Jersey can't handle the $32 billion that was authorized now on top of it this cost. New Jersey property taxes are likely to triple in the next 5-7 years. (the 4% growth cap governor Corzine installed last year is also a deception)

Yowza

This I predict will be the worst economic impact on this country in it's history.

Honker down folks - there is likely to be blood in he streets as municipalities and states look to cancel these onerous and excessive and hidden contracts to the former government employees...


Honker Down hits the nail on the head on this and pile onto the "non-accounting" for social security and medicare.

This what I find interesting about the people that answered the survey, if you were to ask them to describe "Off Balance Sheet Costs", what percent would be able to do that? But yet these same people can tell you who you is responsible for the condition of the economy?


Don't sure why the 12:18 post was to anonymous, but I will take credit for that.


From a previous thread, in reference to common Republican misconceptions/ lies about who pays for what in the U.S. Treasury:

"You really should do a little research and think before espousing
your ignorance. Ooops, sorry, ignorance and left go hand in hand like
steak and potatoes."
Posted by: John D | February 13, 2008 6:37 PM

Then what's your excuse for being such a relentless ignoramus, Mr. Drizzlin'?

"...in reality since the Bush tax cuts, the rich are paying more
of the government's revenues. The richest 10 percent cover
approximately 70 percent of all government revenues. The richest 20
percent cover approximately 90 percent of the government's revenues.


Ummm, FALSE! NOT CORRECT!! NOT EVEN CLOSE!!

Table 2 from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office:
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdoc.cfm?index=5746&type=0&sequence=1
Share of Federal Tax Liabilities

Highest Quintile 2001
65.4%

Highest Quintile 2008
63.8%

So, for starters, in addressing your first mindless assertion, the
share of federal taxes paid by the Top 20% (quintile) has FALLEN over
the Bush years. That's Strike 1.

The richest 10% cover 48.3% of the federal tax burden (down from 50%
in 2001), not "approximately 70%" as you brainlessly assert. That's
Strike 2.

Finally, (its simply amazing that Dyslin is capable of writing one
short paragraph and getting absolutely everything in it demonstrably
wrong and in fact not even close to accurate, and in the same
sputtering post rip "lefties" for failing to check the facts.
Hilarious!) the richest 20% cover 63.8% of federal tax liabilities,
which, by my admittedly simple calculations, is NOWHERE CLOSE to 90%,
as you sputteringly proclaimed. That's Strike 3, Dyslin.

You're out!!


Finally, (its simply amazing that Dyslin is capable of writing one
short paragraph and getting absolutely everything in it demonstrably
wrong and in fact not even close to accurate, and in the same
sputtering post rip "lefties" for failing to check the facts.
Hilarious!) the richest 20% cover 63.8% of federal tax liabilities,
which, by my admittedly simple calculations, is NOWHERE CLOSE to 90%,
as you sputteringly proclaimed. That's Strike 3, Dyslin.

You're out!!

Posted by: Jones | February 17, 2008 2:50 PM

He's off his medicine again. Wait, maybe he's just handicapable.


Here is the look at who pays federal income taxes:

http://www.ntu.org/main/page.php?PageID=6


It seems to me that this is one of the most vital issues we face as a nation and as tax payers and yet it gets so little attention.

It is a tsunami that is going to effect all our lives and our children and grand children for many - many years and yet so few seem capable or willing to understand what is coming.

It's massive!


Funny, though, last weekend when I flew to Florida and back, neither flight had one available seat, and it took an hour to get through security in Orlando and about 40 minutes in Chicago (and that was at 6 am). Also, funny that when a coworker made reservations to head to Vegas for a work-related trip, his seat was the last one.
And, heading down to Chicago on Sunday, the Metra train was packed to the rafters. The economy may be stumbling, but it seems folks are flying everywhere, spending dough and doing things.


John D,

But that is anecdotal. Kind of like confusing local weather with global climate.


Jones, it seems Terry, withy his NY Times chart pretty much shows I was correct, huh??

C Morris, weather is climate. Here are some climate facts for you though. First of all, from mid 1300s to mid 1800s Earth went through what is known as the Little Ice Age. Global temps were down. Scientists say low solar flar activity was the main cause. Temps have risen since the mid 1800s, when the Little Ice Age ENDED.
Temps in the past year have remained the same or fallen. Scientists say solar flare activity has calmed in the past year. By the way, for the last several decades, solar activity has been ABOVE normal. You see C Morris, more solar activity means more radiation dispensed by the Sun, therefore warmer temps here. Less solar flare activity means less radiation dispensed, which can mean lower temps here, hence the Little Ice Age.

And, anecodtal info still has meaning. If fights are full, streets crowded with shoppers, streets crowded with folks just plain ole sightseeing, means economic activity. Just like 1 + 1 = 2 (hopefully that math problem wasn't too difficult for you and your mindless brethren).


CM,

Isn't that what the mainstream media, confuse local weather with global climate, does everytime there is a sixty degree day in New York or Chicago in January? Isn't that what John Kerry does whne he talks about tornados?


I'd give your statement some credence.

My only point; A cold day in Chicago does not disprove the global warming theory.

Even with G.W. there will be hot days and cold days. If we entered a new ice age it would still be hotter than heck someplace.

John D, I know about the minnie ice age, and the theory behind solar activity. The point about this particular cycle is that human activities may be making it worse than it would otherwise be.

There are other factors as well, including precession, and our elliptical orbit around the sun. Obviously, the farther Earth is from the Sun on the Winter Solstice the cooler the winter should be.
All this is great for the HVAC racket, hey John D!?


Dyslin,

I think I'll take my data from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office over some think tank with a conspicuous agenda.

The link doesn't state what "adjusted gross income" includes, but the CBO addresses total tax liability, which, frankly, is the number that really matters.


Jones,

I tried to make that point with John D. regarding total tax liability before, but he seems to think since some taxes are state taxes they are coming out of a different pocket.

It's all the same pocket (money) John D.
It's fungible.


Jonesy,

Adjusted Gross Income - bottom of Page 1 on your Form 1040.


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