by Jim Tankersley
Mitt Romney's decision to suspend his presidential campaign today appears to answer an enormous question – who will be the 2008 Republican nominee for president? But it leaves several others unanswered, particularly as we look ahead to the general election.
Here's a snap rundown of Three Burning Questions (we put that in caps to make it sound official) that Romney leaves in his wake.
* How low will the Democrats go?
When one candidate has a clear path to his nomination (McCain, in this case) and two others are facing a potentially months-long struggle for theirs, convention wisdom says the clearer path benefits. Instead of fencing with Romney – whose attacks on McCain's conservatism grew harsher by the day last week – McCain gets to sit back and watch Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton tear each other apart for … a long time. At least in theory.
Thing is, so far Clinton and Obama have stayed fairly civil in their primary. Unlike the Republicans, neither has aired anything resembling an attack ad. After trading slumlord and Wal-Mart board charges in an earlier forum, their first one-on-one debate last week was a borderline love fest. The longer they stay pleasant, the conventional wisdom would go, the less McCain benefits – and the longer national Republicans have to train their fire on two Democrats, not one. Democrats, meanwhile, now get to train all their national fire on McCain.
Some Democrats even argue that their candidates would benefit by getting nastier – and soon.
"What really upsets me about the party is we're not more combative in the nominating process," Democratic strategist David "Mudcat" Saunders told The Swamp this week. "We try to be nice. We don't like people who say bad things. We're a feel-good party… How many times have you heard the name Monca Lewinsky mentioned in this campaign so far? How many times are you going to hear it from the (Democratic) convention on?"
* How will McCain spend his down time?
There are upsides and downsides to the seven months – you read that right – McCain must wait before he formally accepts the Republican nomination.
That's more than enough time, on one hand, to try to mend fences with the conservative base that McCain never had to rally to secure the nomination. He'll need them in November – and the next few months should afford him plenty of opportunities to court Rush Limbaugh, James Dobson and, most importantly, the millions of conservative voters who tune into them every day.
Too much layoff can also kill a campaign – just ask Rudy Giuliani. If the full media spotlight swings to a prolonged Obama-Clinton delegate hunt, McCain could easily fall off the radar and down in the polls. He'll need to find ways to get attention without an opponent. Debating Ron Paul probably won't do the trick.
* Wither Mike Huckabee?
The wild card for McCain is his biggest rival left on the board: Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, who faces a crossroads in his campaign today.
Does he run on but stay, as he has been so far, largely positive toward McCain? Or does he pick up Romney's sword and, building on his natural base of evangelical Christians, try to rally a conservative block to deny McCain the nomination?
The former all-but assures McCain the nomination but leaves Huckabee in good graces for a potential running-mate selection. The latter gives him an outside shot, at best, at the top of the ticket. It also could wound McCain's conservative reconciliation efforts – and perhaps, his shot at the White House.
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Comments
Well Huckabee has hardly any money and so I don't know how long he could hang on. Ron Paul now has more money than any other of the candidates and will stay in this race to the end.
I would love to see a good solid debate between McCain, Huckabee, and Paul with all given equal time. There are big disagreements on issues and conservatives like myself can't stand McCain. Right now I like what Paul is saying.
Posted by: Victor | February 7, 2008 4:52 PM
"GOP CHEERLEADERS SPEAK"
NOW WHAT OH GREAT POPPY?
NOW WHAT ON THE ECONOMY OH GREAT POPPY?
NOW WHAT ON EAVESDROPPING BY OUR PARTY OH GREAT POPPY?
NOW WHAT DO WE DO ABOUT ALL THOSE MEXICANS THAT GOT AWAY AND HAVEN'T CROSSED MY INVISIBLE 3 BILLION DOLLAR 3 MILE FENCE.
NOW WHAT DO WE DO ABOUT ALL THAT CONGRESSIONAL CHURN OR OVERSIGHT.
NOW WHAT DO WE DO TO SELL THE AMERICAN PEOPLE YET ANOTHER FABRICATED SCAM.
HOW DO WE DO IT JOHN JOHN.
HOW DO WE SELL THE AMERICAN PEOPLE YOUR VISION FOR "EVERY AMERICAN BORN AFTER 1964 TO COME DOWN AND GET THEIR A "RUDY GIULIANI SKYWATCH BAND ON THE BACK OF THEIR NECKS."
HOW DO WE CONTINUE THIS POMP AND CIRCUMSTANCE WITH CONGRESS UNTIL WE ARE OUT OF HERE. WE ARE IN BAD SHAPE, THE ECONOMY SUCKS, OUR MILITARY IS DEFINITELY BROKEN, AND WE CAN'T GET BLACK PEOPLE TO JOIN.
HOW DO WE GET THE AMERICAN PEOPLE TO BE BLIND FOR ANOTHER FOUR YEARS WHILE WE COVER ALL THE MISSING EMAILS UNDER THE "PRESIDENTIAL RECORDS ACT"
HOW DO WE GET THE RIGHT U.S. ATTORNEY IN THE RIGHT U.S. DISTRICT COURT TO NOT HEAR ANY CASES RELATING TO ANYTHING OTHER THAN "ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION" FOR ANOTHER YEAR OR SO.
HOW DO WE DO IT JOHN JOHN!
Posted by: Roger Morris | February 7, 2008 4:55 PM
I'm still hhappy that Ron Paul is still in the race - thats the guy you're all afraid to mention lest he get coverage!
You know Ron Paul don't you ? you know, he's the media styled "The man who can never be president".
Posted by: Dave | February 7, 2008 5:09 PM
Everyone I know has always said without Mitt, and Fred - Ron Paul is the best choice. I looked into him and agree. McCain or Huckabee - are you kidding me...No way will I ever vote for one of these nuts. I have been in the GOP for 20 years and either one of them will guarantee a Dem win. You don't believe me? Just watch. Ron Paul is the only one who stands a chance against the demorats - but only if the GOP can get behind him. And no its not to late.
Posted by: JimS | February 7, 2008 5:09 PM
Ron Paul... lol?
He has like 3% of the vote. He isnt even a Republican, he is a libertarian. He should make his own party because he doesn't really belong. McCain may not be the most conservative republican, but hes the most honest Politician I know and Huckabee would make a great running mate for him. Bu I love how so many internet bloggers love Ron paul...
Posted by: mattL | February 7, 2008 5:34 PM
good riddance you terrorist
Posted by: gene | February 7, 2008 5:43 PM
Like Ron said it is going to come down to the last man standing. Ron Paul is the only one who makes any sense. Free us from slavery. Enlighten everyone and pass this along.
http://www.libertyforlife.com/banking/federal_reserve_bank.html
Posted by: Mike | February 7, 2008 5:57 PM
MattL,
John McCain is the most honest politician you know? I think that between McCain and Bill Clinton, Bill Clinton would still be more honest. After all, his lie really did depend on the meaning of the word "is".
John McCain had no excuse for lying about Romney wanting to pull troops out. What is scarier to me, is that he didn't even flinch when he got caught. Most decent people get caught in a lie, or "mischaracterization" and they feel bad, try and correct it, hell, at least squirm a little. Not the Straight Talking John McCain. He has the unique ability to look America strait in the eye and lie point blank without flinching. I'll admit, thats a skill, and were he to get the presidency, it would no doubt come in handy, what with his ability to get caught in unethical deals (Keating five).
Fortunately, he wont win. Conservatives have needed this...we need the party to bottom out and rise stronger for it. I'll be looking forward to 2012 after 4 years of Hillary. We'll be waiting for you Romney.
Posted by: doug | February 7, 2008 6:18 PM
He's a constitutionalist, liberatarian, and conservative - the core values of these three groups are very compatible - not so with Bush liberals in the whitehouse.
Now my griping with the MSM: you don't hear MSM describing Hillary as "moderate" everytime she shows up on TV. Paul is more aligned with paleoconservative than anything else. I think the fact that he's being labeled as "libertarian" alienates those who consider themselves hard-core conservatives.
Posted by: shm224 | February 7, 2008 6:19 PM
Fear not frustrated Repbulicans....you ask for miracles and I give you Billary Clinton. Nothing can galvanize the party like a choice between McCain and Clinton
Posted by: karl | February 7, 2008 6:34 PM
If Huckabee is on the GOP ticket, it' guaranteed the white house will go to the Democrats. In a recent exit poll, Utahns (the most conservative state in the nation) would vote for Barrak Obama rather than a Huckabee ticket. Why? Because he's too much of a religous bigot!
Posted by: Hoehne | February 7, 2008 6:34 PM
What goes around comes around and America has now lost the most competent candidate because of her bigotry. Sigh. We get what we deserve from here.
Now what for conservatives...?
Ron Paul may be a Christian -- his only flaw as far as I can tell -- but he is not the usual kind of Jesus-Hates-You Christian that is so... everywhere. In fact, I've never heard him utter an unkind word about anyone.
Ron Paul doesn't display religious symbols in ads so that dim-witted people will like him.
Ron Paul does not abuse his religion to manipulate voters on matters of state.
Ron Paul is actually RIGHT about a good number of things!
Where do Romney's delegates go now...? Hopefully to Ron Paul!
As a Romney supporter who actually donated to Ron Paul -- to help make sure his voice was heard in the midst of the media tyranny -- Go Ron Paul!
Posted by: CM | February 7, 2008 6:40 PM
Well, we won't have Willard to kick around anymore.
Posted by: C.Morris | February 7, 2008 6:44 PM
I'm a LEGAL immigrant. A number of years back it was looking the same way up in Canada.
The Conservative Party morphed into the Liberal Party and it was impossible to tell them apart. So some really fantastic conservatives created the Reform Party, which had a bumpy start at first, but had a good enough showing to keep them going. Eventually the Reform Party annihilated the Conservative Party. (It was a beautiful thing.)
Well, eventually the Reform Party melted back into the conservatives and Alliance, but the current Prime Minister, Stephen Harper, is actually an old Reform party member. And he's a really good guy, who runs circles around Canada's insanely liberal media (and you think ours is bad).
The point of my rambling is that maybe there needs to be another conservative party formed down here. Our two parties are becoming one and the same, so what is a person to do...? I suppose we could all vote Libertarian.
Posted by: Carol | February 7, 2008 6:45 PM
Let's recap.
Hillary spends $5 million of her own money. She leads Obama in delegates.
Mitt spends $35 million of his own money. He drops out of the race.
Sing me that song again, you know, how republicans are better at fiscal issues.
Posted by: Bruce Y | February 7, 2008 9:40 PM
McCain is a just a week opponent to shoo in the Hillary...
Who would vote for this woman? Do a google search for 'hillary clinton marxist'. In case you do not know what marxist is that would be someone who is a communist (you know like china). Do some research people she does not stand for America, or freedom.
On top of that the clintons are cooks, and were involved in the Contra scandal while in Arkansas (that would be the when the CIA smuggled drugs into the US and sold it to our children).
All you anti-conspiracy people in your Prozac induced fog need to wake up or its all over. Research who you vote for people!!!
Posted by: William | February 7, 2008 10:41 PM
Bruce:
Please don't think you are a true Republican. True Republicans are not envious of other's successes. Let's think here: Romney ends the race worth $200million, with his honor intact, and the leading contender for 2012. Huckabee, will soon end the race worth nothing, a proven religious bigot, and a possible commentator for MSNBC. I respect a man who lays out $40million of his own money for a cause he believes in and when he realizes keeping going will hurt the cause, he humbly bows out. Compare than to someone constantly complaining at his inability to raise cash, but keeps going because his cause is self-promotion.
Posted by: JJ | February 7, 2008 11:20 PM
Well, I'm going to hold my nose now and go for Paul. At least he is a Goldwater Republican with conservative credentials--running against two liberals.
Posted by: JP | February 7, 2008 11:39 PM
ron paul will win the race the polls are not right. ron paul cares about the people of america. ron paul speaks the truth thats why the media black outs him. all over the world support Ron Paul for president.
Posted by: behemoth | February 8, 2008 12:29 AM
Ron Paul is kind, honest, educated, experienced, consistent, and competent. He has no business being in politics, yet here he is, ready to be embraced by conservative voters everywhere.
The revolution will not be televised (since there's media blackout...), but it will be a sight to behold.
Ron Paul 2008!
Posted by: Adam B. | February 8, 2008 1:18 AM
I am glad to see Mr Romney sit it out for now as it gives my party the presidency, either Obama or Clinton, but hopefully just Mr Obama. The country's pulse just is not in for a republican president. Mr Bush saw to the personal destruction of the GOP. McCain can't save it, and Mr Huckabee is just a joke, forever to be remembered as the anti-mormon bigot. All those evangelicals will be eating our democratic dust for the next 20 years.
Posted by: demo davd | February 8, 2008 5:51 AM
My vote is for Ron Paul. I'm not sure he'll win, but he has my vote anyway. I will not vote for Hillary (for obvious reasons) or Obama.
McCain has a tendency to ramble about his pride and his friends when he doesn't want to answer or can't answer a question.
Huckabee will actually say that he won't answer a question if he doesn't want to. That earns him points, but I like Paul better. My vote may not be counted, but I'll cast it anyway and hold my breath hoping that America will not end.
Please restore the republic. Do your research, every democracy eventually becomes a tyranny. Is that what we want?
Posted by: D | February 8, 2008 1:49 PM