by William Neikirk
In a few more months, warm weather will be here and the open road will beckon. But it could be a very expensive open road if oil prices stay as high as they are now.
On Tuesday, for the third time, the price of oil cracked $100 a barrel. This news didn’t seem to create as much attention as the first time this happened, but it should.
As spring approaches, the fact that oil prices keep hovering near the $100 mark is not a welcome development. Warm-weather gasoline is much more expensive, as clean-air rules require the refining of blended gasoline that burns cleaner.
There are worries among some analysts that if the so-called “driving season” starts with oil at or near $100 a barrel, the price of gasoline could surge toward $4 a gallon and beyond. On Tuesday, the national average gasoline price rose to $3.04 a gallon for unleaded regular.
Such a scenario would make energy an even potent national campaign issue in the presidential race. Americans are generally upset about high gasoline prices, but they are not as intense in their feelings as they would be with a big jump in gasoline prices.
There are still questions about why oil prices got so high during the course of 2007. From the beginning of 2007 to the beginning of 2008, oil prices doubled for many complex reasons, including rising worldwide demand, environmental regulations, and geopolitical troubles in oil-producing nations like Nigeria.
Rising gasoline prices would pinch consumer spending for other goods and services, and could contribute to recession concerns triggered by a housing-induced credit crunch. It could be a very untimely economic development.
The economic slowdown (that some say will ultimately be judged a recession) could depress oil prices as people retrench. This slowdown has been around for several months, however, without doing much to drive oil prices down.







Comments
I'd like to offer a big 'Thank You' to Shrub's best buddy, and state sponsor of terrorism, Bandar Bush. Saudi Arabia has announced it is cutting production. The sheer greediness of the oil producers and oil companies will finally force Americans to look into alternative energy sources.
Posted by: weinerdog43 | February 20, 2008 7:57 AM
It would be a cherry on top of the economic disaster that Boy George's legacy will leave behind.
Only the 25 % sheep will find a silver lining in $4 per gal gas.
Posted by: Raving Loon | February 20, 2008 10:10 AM
Oil economics are way too complicated to discuss on a blog comment board. based on the rate of inflation, fuel has lagged for so long, its only natural that it catch up at some point.
Nobody ever gives the Bush family credit for being in the right business. What were they supposed to do? Avoid the wealth opportunity or make it a charitable industry?
Only you can decide how much fuel you'll use. If you don't like the prices, use less. I guess we all have to suck it up and figure out a better way together.
Posted by: Steve S | February 20, 2008 10:30 AM
I have to be honest with everyone. I hope the price of oil goes to $500 per barrel and gas to $20 per gallon. You see, I am rich and could pay $100 per gallon without batting an eye. The roads would be less crowed for me and then, with the price so high, maybe we could find a new and cheaper way of transporting ourselves and our goods. We only react when we are really forced to. Didn't all of this start in 1973, and what have we done to correct it. In 1973 about 25% of our oil was imported, today it is about 68%. This is progress????
Posted by: Greedy One | February 20, 2008 10:50 AM
Steve S, if you want to "suck it up" that's fine by me, but you've been drinking too much of that Republic kool-aid. It's just too easy for anyone to see that the oil industry is making it's last big push for profits before BushCo and Co. are out of office and the real investigation on oil co. price fixing starts.
Posted by: Rory M | February 20, 2008 10:53 AM
Sorry, folks. It's going to finally start costing what it costs. Good luck to all the sprawl dwellers.
Posted by: DD | February 20, 2008 11:00 AM
Oh Roary M... maybe you should see a psychiatrist for your paranoia issues.
Posted by: Steve S | February 20, 2008 11:11 AM
weinerdog 43 and r. loon,
Oil prices are driven by market conditions, fear, and rumors. Some of the fear and rumor fall-out could be lessened IF exploration and development were not treated as if it were something very akin to a meth lab operation in this country. A supply increase will bring down the price. This is Economics 101.
Bush and Cheney could then spend more of their time on creating hurricanes to aim at the Louisiana coast and making sure that unqualified buyers are able to get loans to buy houses, and other "economic disasters". What would the "hope" guy and the other Socialist democrat do when they become the Big Dog Master? Can you not mount a sail mast on your car, truck, or boat? And why are you burning hydrocarbon fossil fuels anyway? More taxes to encourage conservation is what the Socialists have proposed in the past. Let's hear some more of those plans, now. Thank you.
Posted by: Scott - Houston, Tx | February 20, 2008 11:35 AM
Only you can decide how much fuel you'll use. If you don't like the prices, use less. I guess we all have to suck it up and figure out a better way together.
Posted by: Steve S | February 20, 2008 10:30 AM
Yeah doesn't everyone remember "sacrifice but continue to go shopping - hehehe". $4.00 / gallon gas will be the death knell for John McCain. Maybe he should hook up with Wolfowitz and explain to everyone how we need to continue on Iraq in order to pump the 10-12 million barrels a day that OPEC would never allow to occur. These boobs can't even steal oil properly.
Calouste Gulbenkian
Posted by: SGK | February 20, 2008 11:37 AM
Oil prices are driven by market conditions, fear, and rumors.
More taxes to encourage conservation is what the Socialists have proposed in the past.
With all the mergers and aquisitions approved by a Republican led Congress during the 1990's stifling competition and "free markets" one doesn't have to look to far to see who the Socialists really are. Lenin himself couldn't have come up with a better plan than that.
Posted by: T. E. Lawrence | February 20, 2008 12:23 PM
Oil prices are driven by market conditions, fear, and rumors.
More taxes to encourage conservation is what the Socialists have proposed in the past.
With all the mergers and aquisitions approved by a Republican led Congress during the 1990's stifling competition and "free markets" one doesn't have to look to far to see who the Socialists really are. Lenin himself couldn't have come up with a better plan than that.
Posted by: T. E. Lawrence | February 20, 2008 12:31 PM
Let's remember that the great oil man, George W. Bush, ran his oil company into the ground before his daddy's friends came in to save his butt.
W. is also the guy that said because he was in the oil business, he could use his clout to work on the Saudis to increase production and lower prices. Instead of doing that, they told Georgie to take a hike.
Posted by: BobinATL | February 20, 2008 1:25 PM
Scott in Houston. I guess you don't believe in wacky theories like supply and demand. Funny, my econ. prof. must have been completely wrong with all that discussion about scarcity and stuff. I should have realized that magical thinking about 'fears and rumors' is much more important to you Texans. Thank heavens we have brainiac Texans like ole' Shrubby and dead eye Dick in charge. Whooooeeeeee! Yeee Haww! Ya'lll!!
Posted by: weinerdog43 | February 20, 2008 1:35 PM
Mr. Lawrence,
You are right. This master plan has worked to perfection. The Socialist democrats have limited supplies better than any oil company exec could have ever "hoped" for. But what do we "hope" for now - an instantly available substitute, more regulations, more taxes???
What if Starbucks were to get into the awl business. Just speculating here, but would democrats attack Starbucks if they were in the awl business? Unlike ExxonMobil, they seem to be a favorite of the Socialist-minded. What would 'they' charge for their 6-oz. cup of fine motor fuel? Today's cars will not run very long on crappy quality. They may would have to address that little detail.
well, we know that Lenin is pleased. What about the "Hope" and "Change" guy? What about the more experienced Socialist candidate? What would they like to do, in addition to designing more taxes that the consumer, me and presumably you, would have to pay? What would be their "program"? Jes' speculating.
Posted by: Scott - Houston, Tx | February 20, 2008 2:18 PM
"BUSH / CHENEY SPEAKS"
NO IMMUNITY, NO PROTECTION, LIABILITY, ACCOUNTABILITY.
SO NO VACATION FOR YOU!
NO IMMUNITY, NO PROTECTION FROM LIABILITY OR ACCOUNTABILITY TO THE LAW.
NO VACATION FOR YOU!
NO IMMUNITY, NO PROTECTION FOR MY TELECOMS WHO ARE NOW BORED IN ROOM 241 IN THE DARKEN DOORS OF MY WHITEHOUSE.
NO VACATION FOR YOU!
NO IMMUNITY, NO PROTECTION FOR MY TELECOMS AND I GAVE YOU "STIMULUS" INSTEAD OF A VETO OR A FILLIBUSTER.
NO VACATION FOR YOU!
IT'S ALL GOOD, IT'S ALL GOOD, YA'LL SEE. WE GOT LOTS OF FEAR IN THE COOKIE JAR BETWEEN NOW AND JANUARY 21ST. DON'T YOU WORRY, I'M GOING TO GET MY "SECRETARY" ON IT AS SOON AS I GET BACK FROM "GENOCIDE HOTEL RWANDA"
GREAT PLACE TO VISIT, BUT NOT TO STAY I MUST SAY MY FELLOW AMERICANS.
SEE YA'LL NEXT WEEK.
Posted by: Roger Morris | February 20, 2008 2:44 PM
You think Obama is going to do any better? When gas rises to $6 or $8 under his presidency, how will that be Bush's fault?
Posted by: Tom | February 20, 2008 2:57 PM
This keeps up gas in the US will cost what gas really costs.
Posted by: Cheryl | February 20, 2008 2:58 PM
How many of you know that Stroger and the State are really happy about $4/gal gas prices? Why? Well, that means more tax revenue since this crazy tax system we have in Illinois and Cook Co. We get a flat tax per gallon and a sales tax percentage. So, the higher the price per gallon, THE MORE WE GET TAXED! Great system, huh?
Posted by: Mike | February 20, 2008 3:04 PM
i'm going to write this post first and then go check my facts, cuz i'm feeling saucy today. but didn't oil FUTURES reach 100 dollars? haven't we already seen oil at 100 dollars a barrel? and wasn't that BELOW historical highs, based on inflation? also, won't GAS, not OIL, be higher in Chicago because of taxes? when you get outside chicago, won't prices be significantly lower?
what is "the national average price of gasoline"? how is it calculated? please explain. is it the largest thirty markets? a random sampling? the median price of highest and lowest, so that cheap gas in some burg in tennessee skews the "national" price lower? please explain.
[[There are still questions about why oil prices got so high during the course of 2007.]]
really? the word "profiteering" doesn't clear things up?
Posted by: Just Asking | February 20, 2008 3:08 PM
4$ a gallon gas is the penalty that americans deserve to pay for
(1) structuring their built environment exclusively around the use of an automobile and
(2) for neglecting alternative transportation options (unlike Europe, whose populace has lived with 4$ a gallon gas for years, but can take a train rather than waiting 10 hours at an airport or sitting for multiple hours in motionless traffic - see, e.g., pile-up on I-94 today)
Posted by: carl | February 20, 2008 3:10 PM
Bush is worthless, you all know it, greedy one... hmm guess what not all of us can pay $100 for a gallon of gas and i'm glad that you would be willing to waste your money on something so insignificant
Posted by: Amber | February 20, 2008 3:14 PM
For all you liberals that think the European way is so great... say hello to high gas prices! Hey just like Europe, only cheaper still! I've never heard liberals be so angry about something that damages and depletes the environment like the usage of fossil fuels! :o
Posted by: Steve S | February 20, 2008 3:24 PM
First let me state this, Greedy One you are whats wrong with society today....only caring about your useless self. If you want to blame people go after the future traders because those morons are the ones driving up the oil cost. Every day they are coming to the tables with some kind of new fear or rumor. Sadly though, pointing fingers is not going to solve any kind of energy problem. I thinks it time that not only the goverment, but the citizens start pushing back on oil and looking for alternative fuel sources. How about a Hydrogen based car.
Posted by: Matt Moder | February 20, 2008 3:28 PM
The more expensive oil gets, the less we use it.
Posted by: Allan | February 20, 2008 3:57 PM
If only we had spent the one trillion dollars on developing energy alternatives instead of the Iraq war. The US could have been the leader in the next economic revolution. Instead we will be spending $100 for each fill up. The president does make a big difference in the countries direction. Hopefully the next one will have a more long term view. Not concerned about the nearest election.
Posted by: pd | February 20, 2008 4:00 PM
So many people are quick to blame the president, OPEC, that nut in Venezula, refinery fires, natural disasters etc. Yes, prices are inflated... because we simply refuse to limit our demand for gasoline. We kick and scream about the prices and then drive a block to post office or grocery store. I personally drive an SUV... I complain about how much it costs to fill up the tank and yet I like many Americans continue to drive A LOT. Maybe the best solution is for us Americans to start to look to ourselves for a solution instead. That message will be heard far more loudly when petrol companies start to realize smaller profits.
Posted by: Brian | February 20, 2008 4:01 PM
Mr. weinerdog43,
I thought that I clearly stated that an increase in supply (if that would somehow be possible) would force the price of oil to come down. I fail to see how there is any disagreement between me and your Economics professor. How is it that liberals can take something so simple and distort it beyond recognition.
The fears and rumors DO NOT come from Texas. We are too busy trying to keep these 40 year old refineries in operation. You may want to pay closer attention to what the Oil Traders on the NEW YORK Stock Exchange seemed to be concerned about. It is THOSE FOLK that have taken us hostage by exploiting a bad situation. Blaming Bush and Cheney for everything that befalls us is very convenient and I suppose, self-assuring to liberals while expanding their chimerical imagination.
As a matter of accuracy, Dick Cheney is from Wyoming, not Texas. A liberal / socialist probably would not know this, but the Constitution does not allow the president and vice-president to be from the same state. Would it be possible to pay closer attention to what you think that you may be reading. Have a nice day.
Posted by: B. V. Scott | February 20, 2008 5:48 PM
Oh goody! I can hardly wait to participate in the great 'supply and demand' experiment!
Posted by: C.Morris | February 20, 2008 7:21 PM
Steve s.
But the high Euro taxes actually pay for something besides unnecessary war. Like medical care and retirements, and reduced dependence on oil.
Stever, when, in your opinion, do we actually 'hit' Europe? You know, preemptively? Canada too?
Posted by: C.Morris | February 20, 2008 7:32 PM
Just Asking, Its called a weighted average.
One thousand barrels of oil, a few weeks ago, was bid up to $100 then quickly sold at a loss. The inflation adjusted price hasn't reached the 1979(?) high. Diesel and gas are taxed higher in IL. so its both.
The futures markets detest uncertainty. Talk of leaving Iraq and upsetting their exports along with any chaos in the other producing countries raises the world prices that aren't under contract yet. They don't have to justify any fear.
Europe has a population density conductive to ground transportation.
The great economics of oil use is why we use it. At this time, it is the best. If you think oil is too expensive, don't use it. You'll eventually get where you're going.
Posted by: whatnow | February 20, 2008 7:52 PM
All you foilks are making an arguement on $4.00 gas based upon a statement by Billy Neikirk. I wouldn't get a lather about it.
For arguement's sake, let's assume he's right: $100 oil should bring more exploration - but that will occur outside the US since almost everything is off-limits (thank you dems).
Weinerboy - Scott in Houston is exactly right about rumors effecting the market. It is the rumors about SUPPLY and DEMAND that will cause the price to fluctuate.
CM - unbeknwonest to you, you have been participating.
Posted by: Terry | February 20, 2008 8:23 PM
Crazy Duck - here is a silver lining - starting salaries for petroleum engineers is $80K - $110K.
Posted by: Terry | February 22, 2008 8:22 PM
Bring on $4,$5,$10 gallon gas! I ride my bike everyday, everywhere, even in the middle of a Michigan winter; yet I own oil stocks to make money off the rest of the Sheeple in America. The only way we will get away from our ridiculous suburb driven lifestyle is for gas to to up, up, & away!!!!!
Posted by: WeTheSheeple | February 28, 2008 1:28 PM