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Post-Super day, GOP race has clarity Dems lack

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Election 2008
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Posted February 6, 2008 8:48 AM
The Swamp

by Frank James

There's been a lot of analysis since the polls began closing last night about what happened on Super Tuesday. Cut through all the verbiage however and it seems clear that what happened was pretty much what was predicted.

Sen. John McCain seemed to have a clearer path to the Republican nomination while Democrats Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama didn't.

McCain did very well, winning California, and is closing in "inexorably" as some of the pundits put it last night, on the Republican presidential nomination which requires 1,191 delegates to win. McCain has 613 delegates, more than half needed for the nomination. Mitt Romney has 269 and Mike Huckabee had 190, though those numbers aren't final.

If there was a surprise on the Republican side it was Huckabee's strong performance in the South where he won not only the state where he was governor, Arkansas, but Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee. It wasn't enough to put him in contention but it showed the uneasiness of conservatives, especially evangelicals, with McCain. (Huckabee won W. Virginia, too, but that seemed to be because of a Stop-Romney deal between McCain and Huckabee at the the state party's nominating convention.)

Jed Babbin, writing in the Human Events blog, provides a cogent critique of what last night's results augur for the Republican nomination. Babbin isn't the only conservative writer to believe that McCain didn't do what he needed to do, win over conservative hearts and minds. McCain continued to have problems with hard-core conservatives who broke more towards Romney and Huckabee, the former governors of Massachusetts and Arkansas, respectively.

Babbin wrote:

McCain came close, but may not have achieved the prohibitive favorite status that would guarantee Romney’s exit. Despite Gov. Mike Huckabee’s early (about 10:30 EST) declaration of a two-man race -- him and McCain -- Mitt Romney isn’t quitting. Romney said – only a few minutes after Huckabee’s pronouncement that, “This campaign is going on.”

It’s hard to see, though, how long Romney can continue. Now that McCain has momentum, Romney needs a probable path to the nomination to remain credible in the next round of primaries. Since the 1970s, Republicans have won the White House when they have solidly seized the southern states. But when the returns came in, Romney placed third in Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee and Georgia. His wins -- in Utah and Massachusetts primaries, and Alaska and North Dakota caucuses – are too scattered and small to provide a realistic foundation for a nomination.

Mike Huckabee’s showing yesterday was stronger than many had imagined. Winning in West Virginia’s caucuses early in the day, Huckabee partnered with McCain to block Romney. Later, in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia and Tennessee, Huckabee proved he could boost a national ticket from the vice presidential slot.

A McCain-Huckabee ticket now appears a real possibility. The two get along better than either does with Romney. If they are strong in the remaining February primaries -- DC, Maryland, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin -- Romney’s chances may evaporate before month’s end.

It was forecast that the Democratic results on Super Tuesday could be inconclusive and they were. Both Clinton and Obama had successes they can boast of.

She won the big delegate rich states of California, New York and New Jersey. Obama won more states including Missouri, which was hotly contested and only after it had been first called for Clinton. So Clinton has 845 delegates to Obama's 765.

The patterns that have been seen in earlier primaries were evident last night. Clinton did well with the Democratic core, with older women, Latinos and blue-collar workers breaking heavily her way. Meanwhile, Obama did better with independents and younger voters and won super majorities of African Americans across the country.

Tom Edsall has a good analysis of the Democratic race in the Huffington Post. The bottom line is that Clinton and Obama will continue their pitched battle for delegates, but her strength with core Democrats would seem to give Clinton something of an advantage.

According to Edsall:

Hillary Clinton's strength among core Democratic constituencies -- women, Latinos and working class whites -- pushed her to victory in the mega-state primaries of California, New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts on Tuesday, slowing, at least for the moment, the momentum that had been building behind Barack Obama's bid for the nomination.

Clinton's solid majorities among women, who make up from 55 to 59 percent of voters in Democratic primaries, remains her most reliable source of support, although her backing among Latino voters not only helped her win California, but should work to her advantage in the potentially crucial March 4 Texas primary.

Over the past two weeks, support for Obama had been growing in both national and individual state surveys. Obama did well on Tuesday, by any standard, but he did not achieve the kind of decisive victory that his top aides had been privately hoping for, if not counting on.

"Obama thought that if he could win one of the big ones, he could end it tonight," said Sandy Maisel, Colby political scientist. "He's shown he is viable, but I don't think he has proven he can knock her off yet."

Obama on Tuesday won 13 states - Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, Minnesota, North Dakota and Utah - to Clinton's 8 - Arizona, Arkansas, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma and Tennessee.

But Clinton won the biggest states, and six of Obama's 13 wins were in caucus states. A caucus state victory is generally considered less significant than taking first place in a primary, although there is no difference between caucuses and primaries in terms of the number of delegates to be won.

"I was beginning to feel optimistic," said Notre Dame political scientist Darren Davis. "I bought into the fascination with Obama as the primary season went on." Obama's success winning support from blacks, independents, the college educated and young voters is "all well and good, but not significant enough to counteract the traditional Democratic base."

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Comments

I think the headline is misleading. The republicans are fractured. The "conservative" side does not like McCain. The evangelicals don't like McCain. The moderates dislike Romney and feel McCain maybe their only hope at the Whitehouse. The dems are coming out in numbers and they seem happy to support either one. Of course you'll hear differently from some of the swamp rats that will post here, but to be fair, the alternative to either one of the dems is a disaster. McCain is just 4 more years of Bush.


I would generally say that Clinton's support among traditional democratic constituencies is all well and good, but at the end of the day, there is no way in this or any dimension that she can beat John McCain. He is far too popular among independents and moderate democrats (like myself)many, one might say the majority, of whom loathe her. Many people hesitate to vote for Obama because they fear he cannot win. The more viable he becomes and the longer he lasts more of those people will change their minds - particularly educated white women like me. As Jeff Bridges says in The Contender, the disapproval of the political establishment cannot succeed in the faceof an idea "whose time has come." Hillary Clinton, for all that her internal plumbing might be different, is not a new idea - in fact she will bring nothing new at all, and that would be awfully sad.


For my side - conservative Republicans, Real Republicans, this contest is unfortunately over. The democrats can schedule the moving vans. John McCain is just another democrat, far more of a patriot than the rest of them, but still a democrat in everything but name. You all have this thing won. America should always come first, but most regretably, there is no one on the winning side of the ledger that believes this "neo-con" kind of retro-thinking. That is what pains me the most. So hard to believe that Republicans would skunk down this path. Never expected to see the re-incarnation of Jimmy Carter. Are there other World "Leaders" that hate their country more than the three prime candidates that are now in the driver's seat. I can only congratulate these "winners" and move on.


B.V.Scott-

Explain how McCain hates this country? You wanna tell that to his face?

If the last 7 years are what you consider a conservative success, if the last 7 years shows what the right wing evangelical "everything is gods will" crowd can do to this country, then good riddance. You can keep your precious Bush and his one way walkie talkie to god, I for one am going to focus on fixing this country and the mess my kids are going to inherit. You call McCain a patriot and then say he hates his country. Get a grip pal, this country is on the brink of disaster and you want more of the same? In your own words- "move on".


John McCain is a lot more conservative than Mitt Romney, so AGAIN the voters and the facts are rebuking what the posters who say "conservatives don't like McCain and are flocking to Romney."

McCain is now the prohibitive favorite and last night was nothing if not a complete vote of no confidence in Romney. Did you see his numbers in the south? They were horrible!

If you can't win one southern state on Super Tuesday in the REPUBLICAN PARTY what does that say about your candidacy?

McCain has shown he can win in the south (Florida, South Carolina, and Oklahoma) and Huckabee dominated in most of the southern states last night.

Romney could always spend more of his own cash and hang on for a few more months, but what realistic chance does any republican candidate have who can't even win a plurality in one southern state this deep into the primaries? It's time for Romney to quit. He's already done enough damage to the party.


So the Republicans will be running on the militarist pro-empire platform of John McCain.

100 years in Iraq, bomb bomb bomb Iran, a blank check to the military industrial complex, and perhaps even a little invasion of Cuba.


Hello all you Hate America Liberals, I just want all of you to know that if McCain, Clinton or Obama are Elected you can forget about this country...this country will get even worse if that is even possible.........listen anyone who supports Law Breakers and Illegal Immigration should not be allowed to be President of the United States........you keep hearing McCain, Clinton and Obama said that America want the Borders Secure first and then deal with the 12million (wow that is a laugh) Illegal Immigrants that are here now....are you kidding me the # of Illegal Immigrants is probably closer to 30million than 12million......NO NO NO....we want the laws enforced 1st and then go from there....is that so hard for you Hate America Liberals to understand.....everything that is good for America you Hate American Liberals are against.....


Post-Super day results are in. The republicans chose one of two bad choices.

Good thing there going to get trounced in the general eclection. Losers.


Explain how McCain hates this country? _ If the last 7 years are what you consider a conservative success, if the last 7 years shows what the right wing evangelical "everything is gods will" crowd can do to this country, then good riddance. You can keep your precious Bush and his one way walkie talkie to god, I for one am going to focus on fixing this country and the mess my kids are going to inherit. You call McCain a patriot and then say he hates his country. Get a grip pal, this country is on the brink of disaster and you want more of the same? In your own words- "move on".
Posted by: erick
-
You answered your own question, Erick. The last 7 years has been a disaster, and McCain has been a BIG part of that. You're kidding yourself if you think McCain isn't more of the same. McCain now panders to the evangelicals you decry and hasn't proposed anything different from the neocon agenda, just more of the same. When Mac or any of the gop candidates talk change, they really mean short-change.


Bruce Y-
Quick caveat, I am a Obama supporter.
Yes, the last 7 years have been a disaster, and all three front runners are as just as responsible as the current occupant. I prefer Obama myself just because he is the freshest of the 3, Hillary and McCain have been playing the game for too long and I would rather have someone who is the LEAST "more of the same".
I think McCain and Clinton are just the status quo. I dont support either, in my post I was basically trying to bust out a supposed "true" Republican who says these three "hate" their country. As a dem, I had posted previously that McCain was the only Repub who had vague appeal to me because he was willing to buck the party line, but then he started sucking up to the evangelicals and my limited support went right out the window. He doesnt seem to be sucking up anymore as they are all gaga over Huckleberry, so he is back to the McCain I was hearing before.
Again, as I've stated before on this blog, if it comes down to McCain and Hillary, I would be sorely tested to vote happily for either. McCain vs Obama? No contest.

And frankly, anyone that gets Rush Limpbag that fired up and angry is doin okay in my book...


The information in this article appears to be out of date. NBC News, which is projecting delegates based on the Democratic Party's complex formula, figures Obama will wind up with 840 to 849 delegates, versus 829 to 838 for Clinton (as of 12:04 p.m.)


I agree with Jeff. McCain is more conservative than Romney. Glenn, you're a single issue goofball, and I suspect that you're a member of a labor union.


I truly don't believe that Hillary Clinton is electable, even with her strong showing last night. I've always been a fan, for many years, but came across so many people of both parties who did NOT like here, and often couldn't even verbalize the reason why! We need a democratic candidate who can win republican votes. I think both Hillary and Obama could do a good job for our country, but the difference is that Obama has a better chance of winning against any of the republican candidates. (Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh's statements about their support for Hillary instead of McCain could be a strategy to make it look like Hillary could get republican support.) I think Obama has the vision, intelligence, and sense to really help this country with some serious problems. But bottom line, I think he has a chance of beating the republican candidate and Hillary could not. Therefore, unless you want the republican candidate as our next president, (and I would cross parties if they had anyone really inspiring,) you need to vote for Obama!


Posted by: Glenn | February 6, 2008 10:45 AM

Nice rant Glenn...You must love how Bush from "the republican party" handled the illegal issue. Hate to keep throwing this up...but sometimes the idiots who like to call liberals as America haters, just burn my butt. It's just that as a liberal I have served my country in Nam and put my butt on the line, and then have to listen to some snivling, snot nosed kid call me an America hater. The closest to war you have been is your big screen TV. Grow a package or grow up, one or the other.


Erick,
McCain is an enigma. He was a naval pilot during Vietnam. He was a P.O.W. Yet, somehow, he, like the other Marxists, is convinced that the U.S. "tortures" terrorists, and that they are deserving of some sort of civil liberties, that they can be defended in a U.S. court, that Guatanamo should be shut down, etc. Maybe you understand this kind of philosophy, given his military service, but I surely can not make any sense from it, and I do consider him a patriot based on his actual service, but the political philosophy consistently aligns with the Marxists of the democrat party. It defies any logical explanation to me. He will not get my vote, ever, and neither will the other two, more extreme, Marxists. Thanks.


"U.S. ATTORNIES SPEAK"

DON'T BLAME VOTER SUPPRESSION ON US.

DON'T BLAME LONG LINES AT THE POLLING STATIONS ON US.

DON'T BLAME THE JUSTICE DEPARTMENTS "CAGING OF VOTES" ON US.

DON'T BLAME THE POSTAL WORKER IN YOUR AREA THAT THROWS AWAY BLACK NEIGHBORHOOD EARLY BALLOTS ON US.

DON'T BLAME ALBERTO GONZALES FOR THIS PRIMARY, HE DIDN'T DO ANYTHING TO FIX IT, BUT DON'T BLAME IT ON HIM.

CALL MR. UM UM UM UM UM UM UM UM UM UM UM UM MUKASEY.

"IT DOESN'T MATTER WHO VOTES, IT'S WHO COUNTS THE VOTES THAT MATTER"

HUH WEST VIRGINIA!

HUH HUCKABEE!


I found this interesting. Illinois and Al Jazeera suporters have the same idea about who our prsident should be.
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/91D4E785-6C56-4369-8FE0-704C5259C4E7.htm


I agree about the headline here...If the Republicans have the "clarity" the Bush administration has had for the last 7 years, our country can't afford another 4 from them.


Why do the conservatives always bash the liberals claiming they HATE America?

Makes you wonder who really loves their country & the freedoms we take for granted every day.

Stop the hating, Glen.


i'm a democrate but to be honest i think mccain will be the best president elect! I'm not racist but let's face it, there's no way there will be a black (or half black) president, i don't care and not one w/ such little experience.
I think hilary is great because she's practically been there and knows what it's all about and i think she will do a great job but i fear she won't win for the fact that she's a woman and those that hated her husband will fault her for the same. so my money is on mccain.


"THREE BLIND MICE, THREE BLIND MICE" ONE WENT OFF TO WAR, ONE WENT TO CHURCH, AND THE OTHER WENT TO THE BANK"

"THREE BLIND MICE, THREE BLIND MICE"

COULD CARE LESS ABOUT THE CONSTITUTION. STEPPED ON THAT, AND WILLING TO STEP ON IT AGAIN TO MEET THEIR "SPIRITUAL" LAW BREAKING, BUSINESS MINDED WAYS AND MEANS OF CONSOLIDATING AMERICA UNDER
HOMELAND SECURITY.

BILLIONS, AND BILLIONS, TRILLIONS AND TRILLIONS, AND NOT ONE OF THE "THREE BLIND MICE" STOOD UP AND SAID ENOUGH CHEESE IS ENOUGH GEORGE.

ENOUGH IS ENOUGH, IN THE NAME OF RONALD REAGAN AND REAGAN ECONOMICS.

GOD WANTS WORLD CUP, NOT FALSE PROPHETS.

YES THAT GOES FOR YOU TOO MR. HUCKABEE!


Roger CAPS LOCK off!!!


There is a lot of clarity in the Democratic party. Both candidates espouse essentially the same positions and goals. Perhaps this is one of the reasons why the race is so close.

Something to consider is that to implement the Democratic party objectives it is not enough to simply win the White House. Must also make significant increase in the House and Senate. I think Obama would have much longer coat-tails in November.


To B.V.Scott:
So how do you define what makes an American? I thought it was our constitution. I thought it was our respect for the human individual and their rights. I thought it was having honor and loyalty like respecting our treaties like the Geneva Convention. Enhanced Interrogation (by the way Clinton said in that last debate she had been persuaded by military people that it was sometimes "necessary") is a propaganda euphimism for "torture". People should call a spade a spade. There is much more but with that the republican flag wavers lost my ear. I'm not that stupid. I have always loved my country. Obviously not many have loved the US more than McCain. My father served in WWII and my husband in Vietnam. I am a proud democrat, and Obama supporter, although as the note about Hillary above shows there is blood on both side's hands. I like how Obama talks about changing the mindset that got us into this war, yet people like Clinton don't even recognize what that mindset is. She thinks it is just finger blaming about a vote and can't get past it. This was a pre-emptive strike war against an enemy who while despicable had nothing to do with 9/11 and in fact spoke out against it as a crime against humanity (ironic coming from him). Instead of securing the defeat of Osama bin Laden the money making machine of the neocons took over and here we are with an incredible national debt to hand on to my grandchildren and the majority of the government agencies and infrastructure is broken down to the point of uselessness, view our response to Katrina and to homeland security. We have become a disgrace and a byword to the world, we who once could wave our flag with pride as standing for all that was most honorable in humanity (acknowledging of course that their are previous mistakes we have made in floundering our way through history). #1 Where is the money? In Bush croney pockets and gone to China and India. You might not agree with McCain, his recent sucking up to the conservatives has made it impossible for me to consider votin for him because I agree that either Clinton or McCain will just be another four years of ineffective and incompetent government. I'd be tempted by Huckabee if he ran against Clinton. At least he is an economic populist.


No rational person can question that John McCain loves America, both his father and grandfather were navy Admirals in World War II. That being said McCain would be a disater, rivaling U.S. Grant as anothee republican president. Please lets remember how Lyndon Johnson aged in office. McCain is too old to handle the stress of the position. I agree that anyone who annoys the ditto heads must be doing something right.

McCain is certainly qualified to speak on what constitutes tortuting a prisoner, having had first hand experience at the receiving end.

That being said, America is being destroyed from within. Once America offered a shining beacon of hope to the world, Recently America has forfeited its moral authority, which helped bring down the berlin Wall and the Iron Curtain. America must reassume its mantel as the hope or the world, a place where it is better that 100 guilty go free than an innocent man or woman be found guilty. Once again we must be a bright shining beacon to the world. In my opinion, this is the lens through which presidential candidates must be viewed if we want America and the American way of life to exist.

The issue of illegal immigrants is self limiting. We need to consider, which is the better option for America, importing illegal farm workers, which we have done for well over 100 years, or have the farmers move their farms to where the workers are, and have more of our food imported? Even now, farmers are moving their farms to Mexico in order to find lawful workers. Is this cure better than the disease?
That is the sort of rational policy debate we should be having, should be, but are not. Drucker once maintained that a problem well defined is at least half solved, I hope he is correct.


Why is everyone voting for Obama? Does anyone remember Osama? I am very scared that he may be our next president!!! I am a democrat and I am voting for Hilary. Yes, I am a woman but that is not why I am voting for her. I agree with Hilary when she said it took a Clinton to clean up the mess from the first Bush and it will take another Clinton to clean up the mess from this Bush. What I want to know is why someone would not vote for her. I believe she can do wonderful things for this country things that no one has even tried to do before. Let me just tell you this if it comes down to Obama and a republican for president I am voting for a republican and I am not the only one... There are many people who feel the same way I do.


Well, I am a youngish minority... sorta, college educated and optimistic... a war veteran...yes an American war bub. Perhaps I am actually something of a growing norm in our country today. My natural inclination is to vote for Obama. Yes it has occured to me that many Americans can not get themselves to vote for a not entirely white person. But that is actually one of the faults we as a people have. I am still willing to put resentments aside and work on our country as a team. Obama for 2008!


"Republican race now has clarity Democrats lack"

I think the headline has two meanings.
Well put,headline writers.
For the first time in decades I voted Republican for that exact reason.Neither of the Dems top two bring anything to the table & frankly there is no reason to vote for them other than contempt for the other party.Thats just not enough.
Note to Hillary,before trashing our heathcare system,how about fixing the military vet hospitals.
Todays headline hit it right on the head.


I agree with Diana's comments about Hillary. She's not electable! Hillary cannot attract independents and Republican moderates. Basically, Hillary is a polarizing figure who is a divisive politician. If she is the nominee, the DEMS will go down in a big landslide defeat. She is the same 'OLD GUARD' and 'STATUS QUO.'
Its obvious Hillary is not liked in states like Idaho, Utah, North Dakota, Colorado, and the swing state of Missouri; therefore, if she loses these states in a primary, she will lose the general election. Picking up the Northwest states was not advantageous because she represents NY, and NJ and MA are liberal states in the NE corner of the US.

I am more impressed with Obama's showing than Hillary's. He can beat a Republican. She cannot beat the Reps. She will cause the DEMS to go down in a major defeat.

And, Bill is so destructive and divisive talking, so who's listening to him, nowadays.


Dear Susan E.

Constitution - Excellent
Human Rights - Excellent
Individual Rights - Excellent and necessary
Honor / Loyalty - Excellent
Treaties - Make it don't break it
See, we have no disagreement at all up to here.
Enhanced Interrogation - Do you work for the CIA? Not sure either one of us would really know what the heck this is.
Hillary - Not my problem anymore

My definition of an America Hater is simply those political hacks, democrats usually, and their activist lackeys that ALWAYS find the fault for the World's acts of evil and malevolence had to have originated with something pomulgated by the American president, V.P., Secy of State, or Secy of Defense, particulary if those folk are/were Republicans at the time that their heinous crimes were committed.

I do salute you, Susan. We are not that far apart. You are no doubt a True American, just like me. So sweet. You probably just have not been taxed enough to be a Republican. Obama and Hillary no doubt, have a plan, just for you, and especially for me.

Respectfully, The Scottman


Obama, should have the decency to drop out of the race right now. He is meesing things up for the Democrats. Let him admit that he lost and prepare for 2016.


Obama will bring America back. If he's good enough for the Kennedys, he's good enough for me!! www.whytheDemocratswillwinin2008.com


"Why is everyone voting for Obama? Does anyone remember Osama?"

WHAT?


Barack will bring this country together. He is not super polarizing like Hillary, and to be honest, she's already had her time in the White House, give someone else a chance! Besides you would think with all the scandal on the hill she experienced with Bill, she wouldn't want to bring him back around all those young interns. It appears they have a marriage of political convenience. Hillary's had her sights on the Presidency since she decided to be a Senator in one of the states with the most delegates. She's just to calculating to me. No more of the old political machine. Barack is such a refreshing change to all of that. BARACK in 08!


Goodbye 'stupid bloody Tuesday'.


"Hello all you Hate America Liberals, I just want all of you to know that if McCain, Clinton or Obama are Elected you can forget about this country...this country will get even worse if that is even possible.........listen anyone who supports Law Breakers and Illegal Immigration should not be allowed to be President of the United States........you keep hearing McCain, Clinton and Obama said that America want the Borders Secure first and then deal with the 12million (wow that is a laugh) Illegal Immigrants that are here now....are you kidding me the # of Illegal Immigrants is probably closer to 30million than 12million......NO NO NO....we want the laws enforced 1st and then go from there....is that so hard for you Hate America Liberals to understand.....everything that is good for America you Hate American Liberals are against.....

Posted by: Glenn | February 6, 2008 10:45 AM"

Textbook angry white male.
Bottomless pit of rage.
Guys like this shouldn't have guns.


Textbook angry white male.
Bottomless pit of rage.
Guys like this shouldn't have guns.

Posted by: C.Morris | February 6, 2008 10:53 PM

I think an illegal got glenns' job at McDonalds.


Lets face it the only reason Obama is popular is because people are not strong enough to admit they won't for a someone who has no experience ever leading anything, just because he is black and people are too coward and too proud to admit, that experience doesn't matter when the person is black, because they want to proove that they are above racism! So obmaa gets elected not because he is a leader, but because his followers are too arrogant to not vote for him, because of his race, they are out to proove they are enlightened educated people who value diversity.


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