An Easter Break question: Can Hillary Clinton win?: The Swamp
 
The Swamp
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Posted March 22, 2008 10:57 AM
The Swamp

By Jim Tankersley

The Democratic presidential candidates are taking a long-overdue break from the campaign trail this weekend, just in time for Easter. Hillary Clinton is home in New York. Barack Obama is set, after an event in southern Oregon today, to embark on a mini-vacation to … somewhere.

We'll take this opportunity to reassess the race. In particular: Who's going to win?

It just so happens that a flock of journalists, analysts and bloggers have weighed in this week on that very question. Very roughly, they break into two camps: those who believe Clinton has a "path" to the Democratic nomination, and those who believe she has almost no hope left.

Leading the way for the latter camp are Jim Vandehei and Mike Allen of Politico. "One big fact has largely been lost in the recent coverage of the Democratic presidential race," they write in a piece published yesterday. "Hillary Rodham Clinton has virtually no chance of winning."

On the other side, Jay Cost of the RealClearPolitics.com "HorseRaceBlog". This week, he laid out what he called a "plausible, but unlikely, path to the nomination for Clinton."

Both sides generally agree on the parameters of the debate: that Obama appears almost certain to end the primary season with more pledged delegates than Clinton; that he appears likely, particularly in light of developments this week that make do-over votes in Florida and Michigan appear next-to-impossible, to finish with a lead in the overall popular vote from the combined primaries and caucuses; and that to secure the nomination, Clinton will need to win over a huge chunk of the remaining uncommitted "superdelegates."

The big disagreement is whether Clinton could conceivably pull off a superdelegate-fueled victory even if she trails in pledged delegates and popular votes.

Jay Cost says she could. His reasoning rests on the notion that Clinton can win over superdelegates with an argument that she is the "legitimate" nominee.

He notes that there are "many ways" to count the popular vote in the primaries – for example, by including Michigan and Florida's tallies even if their delegates aren't on track to be seated at the Democratic National Convention. Clinton could argue that she's winning the most legitimate count of those votes.

"Come back to win a popular vote total, and use that to persuade the super delegates. That's her angle," Cost writes. "I think it is a tough one, but I don't think it is impossible. I can imagine him ending the race by winning big in North Carolina - but I can also see her winning big in Pennsylvania, keeping it close in North Carolina and winning big in Indiana (held on the same day). That would leave Kentucky, West Virginia, Puerto Rico, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota. There is promising terrain there for her."

The Clinton campaign is making its "persuasion" pitch to superdelegates all about electability. In a memo to reporters this week, chief strategist Mark Penn highlighted several polls showing Clinton running stronger in the general election against Republican John McCain in states such as Ohio and Missouri. "The more that the voters learn about Barack Obama," Penn wrote, "the more his ability to beat John McCain is declining compared to Hillary."

Vandehei and Allen contend it would take "an electoral miracle" for Clinton to win the popular vote, and that the only way she could win the nomination is "if Democratic superdelegates are ready to risk a backlash of historic proportions from the party’s most reliable constituency" – a prospect they say Clinton advisers only call a 10 percent probability.

Barring a popular-vote win, they write, "she has only one scenario for victory. An African-American opponent and his backers would be told that, even though he won the contest with voters, the prize is going to someone else. People who think that scenario is even remotely likely are living on another planet."

Christopher Beam of Slate is more succinct: "Hillary’s path to the nomination is not 'narrow,'" he wrote this week. "It’s barricaded."

Add it all together and what do you have? A prescription for several more months of campaign attacks. Clinton's electability argument only gains strength if Obama's poll numbers keep dropping - which is to say, if Clinton keeps hammering him on questions of experience and substance.

Outside events are the wild card. Could another controversy on the "Rev. Wright" level convince superdelegates to abandon Obama? It's worth noting that, to this point, that a tough month for Obama has not led to superdelegate defections. But if this campaign has taught us one thing, it's that as soon as you think you've figured it out, the ground shifts again.

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Comments

I think, the most honorable and classy thing for Hillary to do - is to drop out.

But my guess is that she lacks these qualities and will continue her 'scorched earth policy'; Either she will have the Democratic Party Nomination or no one will.


i really think richardson's endorsement of obama..is the lid on the coffin..i think Edwards will endorse obama before pa. primary and gore before or after..that will be the final nail in the coffin..i do not think the democrats can survive another few weeks without a candidate..and have to choose now..has to happen fast


Hillary can't win! She will ALWAYS be behind in pledged delegates AND the popular vote. I guess she should have campaigned in those "insignificant" states after all.


This is patent nonsense. Hillary has by far the popular vote majority in the key competitive states. Obama has gathered delegates in mostly caucus states that will almost all fall to the Republicans come November. This unfair deathknell concerning Hillary is part of a continual bandwagon litany that is based on Hillary hatred and unfair and unethical journalism. Just because journalists have "Clintonian fatigue," the American voter sees this very differently and will prove again and again they are supportive of her.


The Clintons are not just words, they are manipulated words.
The Clintons are using racial divides to fuel their campaign. They are also using the neo-con definition of patriotism to invalidate a REAL democrat.
The Wright controversy.
The Hispanic irrelevance of Richardsons endorsement, ie the Hispanic vote is over the endorsement means nothing.
Its just a game for them, using racial demographics to try to win.
The Clintons are stuck in the white liberal elite world. They still cling to the concept that "big liberal whitey" can help the disenfranchised masses.
Wrong.


Hillary is done. For the good of the party, she needs to step aside already. This race has been over since Super Tuesday.


!GOBAMA!


Which candidate is going to win? The one photographed attending Easter services this weekend. If the Obama camp continues on as if it's oblivious to the fact that this is Easter weekend, and he dashes off to the Caribbean for a mini-break rather than salvage his image as a churchgoing candidate, particularly in the wake of the Wright affair, he'll be in trouble with a segment of the electorate he wants firmly supporting him. Holding numerous campaign events in Oregon on Good Friday, yesterday, including the Richardson endorsement, won't help. Hopefully he has a photo-op scheduled of him attending services somewhere this weekend, whether or not it's Trinity United in Chicago.


There's clinton supporters, "whoever is the nominee" democrats and then there's everybody else. Roughly 1/4 of the country is behind her and 2/4 is against her. Those are pretty bad odds. Add in stealing the election, mass black vote and young vote defection, John McCain wins. Obama at least has a solid platform to bring him back to topping mccain in the polls.


Hillary Clinton should withdraw, but I think that she is going to have to be nudged. And who will do that? We need more superdelegates like Richardson to step up to the plate. The longer this contest goes on, the more damage Democrats can do to themselves in the general election. Of course the Clintons have never shown concern for the party; perhaps they want to muddy Obama up so much that they will weaken him in the general on the belief that then she can come back four years from now. It will really be sad if we let this wonderful candidate be swiftboated.


Are you related to the Tnkersleys of Charlotte Court House, VA, c. 1776?


You have my vote!!!!! I was very honored to meet Bill in richmond Indiana!!!!


For the longest time, polls (for what they are worth) showed Hillary to have a higher portion of negative rating than any candidate (exceptionally high). I don't think anything has happened to change that--her electability has been and still is, highly questionable. Between now and the convention we have to figure out if the Wright affair will put Obama in a similar situation. As of today, his poll numbers are way down; the question is, will they stay there or will they bounce back. If they don't then which candidate is most electable is a fair question; if they do, Hillary should step aside. More important than choosing between them is making sure that McCain, an apparently honest man but as foolish and incompetent and dangerous as Dubya, does not get elected to continue our national nightmare.


They both are running for POTUS NOT POTDemocrats. Hillary should stay in for the good of the COUNTRY not drop out for THE PARTY!


Mrs. Clinton should drop from the race, she has a personal agenda for the white house and donot really have the Anerican voters to heart. This is not the time for personal issue, America is in deep trouble now, and need a good Leader.


Logic fallacy, Bernard. Winning "big states" means nothing because those states are going to vote for whomever is the nominee in Nov, Obama or Hillary. You really think California, New York and Massachusetts would vote Republican in November? So the argument that she has some kind of legitimavy from winning those states is a failed argument. Keep in mind, however, that this is the United States, not "the Big States." All the states matter, and Obama is ahead in that department.


to Bernard Paul,

700,000 American Voters didn't feel the pantent nonsense you proclaim. You are typical Clinton parrot in your protests. We don't like the results of the caucus, the Michigan and Florida votes should count now? They didn't go the way Clinton way, so they are unfair! 60% of the country has Clinton fatigue, not just the press. Give it up!


As soon as we the people stop the nonsense of politics, and decide that we need a change in this country, then it will be all but over, and Hilary will be sent packing. Go Obama.


It would be tough for super delegates to push Hillary's delegate count over the top if Barak is ahead by a large margin. If he has a small lead and Hillary looks stronger than Barak in the last couple months of voting, that may be another story. I think one of the advantages super delegates have is that they can make a decision based on more information than voters had in January, February, March etc., and even their constituency might have voted differently if they had known about things that came out later.
The Rezko trial is pretty drawn out, and we don't know if there will be more revelations before it is over.
Barak shows a bit of hypocricy pursuing super delegatees such as Richardson given his strong stance on super delegates voting as their states do. (You also have super delegates Kennedy and Kerry from a Clinton state, who have probably not been asked by Senator Obama to vote for Senator Clinton, as many have noted.)


I am one of those "white old women over 70" who feels like Hillary is showing her true colors and will do anything and everything to win. She does not care that these tactics are dividing the Democratic party...how sad.


Bernard Paul: even if you include the MI and FL "primaries", HRC is still 80,246 votes behind in the popular vote...


Bernard Paul: even if you include the MI and FL "primaries", HRC is still 80,246 votes behind in the popular vote...


Yes, if the DNC lets democracy rule and includes the voters preference either as is or by re-vote in Michigan and Floriday, the popular as well as delegate vote as the people spoke or will speak. If the DNC does not let Obama win by a technicality by disallowing the voters preferences in Michigan and Florida. If they do not go by what the voters said or will say by voting in a primary then I won't vote democratic in any race again for years. Let democracy rule. That means to let the voters vote.


Hillary Clinton is the Senator from my home state of New York. While i've been proud of the work she has done for New York, i've been disappointed in how she has run her campaign. She has treated Barack Obama so unfairly, she is campaigning like the republican and Obama the democrat. Vandehei and Allen(Politico)assessment are on point. She has no chance of winning, unless she can somehow persuade the superdelegates to overturn the will of the people and we all know if that happens their will be anarchy. Hillary should cut her losses and drop out of the race.


Bernard Paul, your logic is way too one-sided. You don't want to give Obama credit for making traditionally red states like Colorado, Virginia, and Iowa, but you want to celebrate Hillary's prospects in big states like Texas? Do you honestly think those GOP voters who crossed over will be joined by more of their brethren? With regards to CA and NY, if you think Obama won't win those big states, you're hoping against hope. Furthermore, Obama has weathered his greatest crisis, Hillary's is yet to come. The scrutiny surrouding the Clinton tax returns will be huge, and right before the PA primaries. It is likely to fuel more speculation and demand for the revelation of the Clinton library donors.


I am part of Hillary Clinton's key demographic -- a 60ish white woman, but I support Barack Obama because she is the most polarizing candidate in recent memory. Even if Hillary sees the increasingly obvious writing on the wall, which is unlikely, she and Bill have already provided the GOP with an endorsement of McCain that will be used in the general election. Their complimentarty sound bites will become commercials trumpeting the former Democratic President's opinion that John McCain is more patriotic than Senator Obama. Shame on him for saying anything in his narcissistic lust for power.


What experience? and what substance? If any lacks these, it is Hillary. You can not ride by Bill's coat tails and make it your own!!! Get real, Hillary is simply not experienced enough nor is she a UNITER! We need someone who can unite the world, when Barack talks evryone listens!!


If obama wins the democratic nomination, it will literally be handing the presidency to the republicans...can't believe the democrats are so shortsighted..


Let the primaries take their course, for pete's sake.

And in the future, let's do away with caucuses are go back to universal suffrage by secret ballot. This is supposed to be a democracy.


She should give up the campaign and Al Gore should advise her to do so. Only he can explain how marginalized she will become as she continues to fracture the party in this unwinable quest to get the nomination. Hillary, the woman with the redactable life, must throw in the towel.


It doesn't matter if Hillary leads the popular vote in 'key' states. What matters is the overall popular vote. Superdels won't overthrow that.

Plus, claims that a 'unfair deathnell for Hillary is based on hatred andd unfair journalism' are nonsense. It is based on sounnd reasoning.

There are good, sound reasons for urging someone who is unlikely to win to pull out now. The longer we wait, the harder it will be to unify behind one candidate. Already a huge chunk of democrats are going to betray their values and their party this fall because their first choice candidate didn't make it. The longer we fight each other, the larger this group becomes.

Hillary, pull out now!I would also be fine with Obama pulling out, but since he is winning he shouldn't have to.

Hillary, pull out now.


Bernard- The only problem is, Clinton's popular vote lead in "key" states isn't really "by far" in the slightest.

In NY, she won by 300,000.

In CA, by 400,000.

In TX, by 100,000.

These are huge states, so those numbers are all less than 20% of voters.

Overall, Obama leads the pop vote by over 700,000.

For Clinton to attempt to persuade superdels without having the pop vote after all is said and done would be as anti-democratic as it is anti-Democratic. She would become the enemy of a huge chunk of her own party.

The only way she could do it is if she has a legitimate lead in the pop vote, since then no one could argue with the win. PA will help her, but there's no way it could be enough to cancel his current lead, let alone his gains in NC and elsewhere we all know are coming.

There's just no way.


Hillary will win.
Democratic party can not discount the will of people by not counting the votes in Florida, and Michigan. Obama is saying to devide votes in half, amounts to not counting the votes of people in those two states.
There are only two fair ways to count the votes in those two states, either counting votes of Florida (where both candidates were on the ballot), and revoting in Michigan, or revote in both states. Any other way to count vote will be infair.
If democracy is defined as "By the people, of the people, and for the people", then leadership of the democratic party cannot arbitrarily impose their rules.
I do not think it is fair to count delegates, superdelegates, electoral college etc undemocratic methods to elect (actually select) a candidate.
Let the will of the people be counted fairly and squarely.

Seeing all the votes and voting patterns, Hillary WILL win after all the votes are counted fairly.


Oh the media and their transparents support for Senator Obama. Neither Clinton or Obama can win enough delegates to EARN the nomination. So why shouldn't Obama drop out since he cannot win? The question won't be asked by the media because they are in the tank for Obama.

Clinton is correct when she states Obama hasn't been fully vetted. It isn't just Rev. Wright and Rezko, but other allegations are already out there about him.
She is also correct when she states Obama's wins in "red" states over Clinton will NOT garner him wins over McCain in November.

Don't blame Hillary that Obama couldn't close the deal(other than the Rezko deal).


LadyVoter: it is hardly a technicality - the rules were clear from the beginning, and MI and FL tried to steal a march on the primary season for ignoring the rules that all the dems agreed on, including Hilary (see her comments before the MI primary, where she acknowledged the votes wouldn't count).

The only reason she now wants them to count is because she has lost her early advantage through a combination of arrogance and just plain simple campaign mismanagement... if you don't believe this, look at the polls (you can find them easily on the intenet, if you really are interested in facts) from late last year, where she had double digit leads in EVERY state.


No way should Hillary drop out.

Why? to save us from an Obama presidency.

Obama should take a job as professor of African American Studies and Race Relationships. He can give more eloquent speeches and sway more young people to Wright’s way of thinking.

Based on what has transpired in the primary season, what we really have seen is that Obama pushes the race card whenever he thinks it will help him get ahead of Hillary Clinton. C’mon, to say that Bill Clinton’s comments in Carolina the other day were akin to McCarthyism is completely off the wall. Why are we, the public, letting him get away with it? Because we don’t want to be called racists.

What would an Obama presidency look like? Well, you can’t criticize the guy, because you will be racist. So he will keep tumbling down the rabbit hole, bringing the country with him. He is the most divisive candidate that has come on the scene in many years, precisely because he can use the race card so effectively.


I agree Hillary will not win in delegated count. But superdelegates should have the wisdom to note that her possible loss in nomination is not because of her weakness. If Obama's book was as open as hers and Wright-gate was not buried by the slanted press then, the Dem will not in today's situation - Hillary is the nominee.


The Politico piece says it best. Using words in the spirit of this Easter season, it would take an Obama disaster of biblical proportions to keep him from the Democratic nomination. Bill Clinton continues to be Hillary's worst enemy, as it seems like every time he opens his mouth he stirs up a negative controversy which further hurts the HRC campaign. McCain-Obama will provide the best choice for the American people in the fall.


It's time for the Clinton's to stop do the dirty work of the "vast right wing spin machine. "Swift boating a fellow Democrat should be "off limits".


It's o-VUH!!!!!Pack your bags, Hillary, you're going home!!! Show a shred of class and decency toward the Party and -- drop out.Now!


Senator Obama may win but he is rapidly losing his appearance of being a great leader.


Hillary has no chance to win the elected delegate count. The last time I checked, the rules stated that it's elected delegates, NOT popular vote that determines the winner.

Hillary can only harm the Democratic Party with her stubborn refusal to acknowledge the truth -- she can't win HONESTLY.

If Obama is leading at the end, and the Super Delegates step in and STOP THE HOPE TRAIN for the old worn-out ways of the Clintons, the party will be destroyed.

Hillary is in debt and owes more money than she has on hand. Can't even balance a checkbook. Obama has clearly out-organized, out-managed, and out-strategized her. He deserves the victory.


Democrats are only short-sighted if they insist on Clinton continuing to stay in and further divide the party.

I'm a NH Republican who is voting for Obama - there are a lot more like me. There are also a lot of people who cannot stand Clinton in any way, shape, or form. I will vote for Obama, but never for Clinton. C'mon, Democrats, turn up the heat to get Clinton out so we can start getting solidly behind Obama.


Why would she drop out?
In the states that held primary elections she ahead of Obama by 245,884
Causus were fixed by the Obama campaign.
In NYC there is a big
Anti Obama movement.
People are wearing Democrats AGAINST Obama
NEVER A OBAMA-WRIGHT 08


The superdelegates know how to read polls too. Since there is no safe bet they will conclude party unity is a nice concept but they alone must face the voters in their districts. It will be every man for himself.


"The honorable thing hiliary could do is drop out"......i can say the same about nobama. He should drop out. He's UNELECTABLE


I don't think Hillary or anyone in her camgaign took Obama seriously. Then, when he started winning states and delegates started slamming him with being inexperience when in fact, Obama has more experience when you add his years as a State Senator (they should count for something) to the years as a US senator. Especially if flying around the world having 15min teas and being joinned with commedians and singers is counted as experience.

Hillary political resume is overly padded with experience that's not there. And remember, up state has LOST jobs since shes taken office as their Senator. Her campaign is sloppy. These are small clues as to how a person would run the White House.

McCain is clueless. Being a war hero aside. Again these are little clues as to how he would run the White House.


I think it is Obama, not Clinton, that is tearing the democratic party apart. I take that back, I think it is the DNC and their rules. The caucus are democratic and large numbers of voters can't vote in them because of their life circumstances, the Then there is the fact that 2 states that did and will vote for Clinton if allowed a revote aren't included, 2 out of 50 that is 4% of the voters thrown out the window. And this talk of formulas, I don't want forumulas I want the DNC to let the voters vote.


Actually, we're not a pure democracy - our founding fathers decided against that...and so created the electoral college and in the early years Senators were not elected by popular vote, but by the state legislatures until 1913 (17th Amendment)...technically, we're a Republic.

That said, one of the great strenghts of our country is our ability to determine how we will elect our officials, something the Democrats have done, whether or not you agree with them, or the outcome these produce.


I don't feel Clinton should withdraw from the race but I do wish she would stop with the stupid kitchen sink approach. Moreover I also hope that people will see what's before them and eventually come together for whoever become the Democratic Nominee in the fall. This country has a complex group of people and for once I really would like American voters to think without hatred and fear. Do what's really needed for everyone who needs a better American government.


Of course she has no shot at winning, and thanks for writing an article on the truth. I'm so fed up with people making "hypothesies"....maybe she can win, maybe Barack believes this, maybe Barack believes that, maybe there's a black conspiracy, maybe there is a way we can count FL and MI, blah, blah blah!!! Why don't people stick to truths.

Obama has an unbeatable lead for the Dems. Hillary is loosing badly in this election. Obama has denounced racist views. FL and MI went against both the DNC and the RNC parties and are now paying their just dessserts. And how many times have the Clinton's used a conspiracy argument?

Anyone that is nieve enough to believe a single poll, caucus, or election since McCain has ran away with his party's nomination, is really turning a blind eye to the fact that Republican's are voting by the HUNDRED'S OF THOUSANDS for Hillary in the hopes of facing the easiest opponent in November. The only "momentum shift" that has taken place this last month is the artificial one that the Republicans have created for Hillary.

Please, Hillary, for your name's sake and legacy, exit gracefully and make some positive moves for a change.


Hillary can't win. She'll end up behind in the delegate total, number of states won and popular vote total. The superdelegates will hand the nomination to Obama when he finishes with a lead in these categories.

Yet I can't imagine a situation where she steps down before the last primary. It would be difficult for any person to bow out being so close in the delegate race and even now leading national polls. So don't blame Hillary for believing in herself and fighting on.

I think the superdelegates actually dropped the ball on this one. Their job requires them to use their superior understanding of democracy, politics and elections for the betterment of the party and its constituents. After the split decision on Super Tuesday, they would have seen the possibility of the race being this close. Instead of sitting on their hands and praying that they wouldn't be forced to make a decision, they hoped that one candidate would have the momentum enough to win without them. In the month following Super Tuesday when Obama racked up 11 straight wins, it seemed obvious that he would end with the delegate lead and popular majority. If they had come out in support of Obama then, this mess could have been averted.


alee21 wrote-
"Obama should take a job as professor of African American Studies and Race Relationships."
and then
"He is the most divisive candidate that has come on the scene in many years, precisely because he can use the race card so effectively."


You see, you've proven the point exactly- Obama is not playing any race card whatsoever- it's those who don't want to see him win who are playing the race card, over and over and over. Professor of African-American studies?! Are you serious?

Obama is a community organizer going to an organized church in his community. There is nothing wrong with that. If we're all of a sudden going to worry about people's pastors, how about all of the homophobia that continues from the lips of countless mega-church pastors? Why are we worried about a black church on the southside of Chicago, for petesake?

Obama has succeeded in being post-racial, unifying, and downright refreshing.

It's his enemies who are playing the race card, not him.


About the doing away with caucuses thing: Someone else on another blog made an astute and very significant observation: Primary voting can be - and has been in this nomination process - highly manipulative, i.e., the Rush L. Repubs who crossed over by an estimated 100,000 in Texas alone. These aren't people who would vote for Clinton in the general, but they had nothing to lose by doing the cross-over boogie as a way to keep Hillary in the running (which they wanted to do).

I attended a party caucus once, and no question, you had to be clear about whom you were supporting, and why. No chance to hide, obfuscate, or otherwise play the game of "Let's try and throw this thing off."

Conclusion: Assuming primary voting is more democratic...maybe needs to be revisited.

Thanks for considering.


to NH for Obama:

A lot of them will vote for McCain, I will never vote for Obama. I am a Clinton Democrat (also called Regan Democrats)


"If Obama's book was as open as hers..."

Where are the tax returns and the list of donors to the presidential library? And how did she get $5million to loan to her campaign - not an amount many of us have lying around, I would guess?

And why did the press have to file FOI requests to get her first lady appointments diaries? Because she knew what they would show, which is not the 'experience' she has been touting...

puh-leeze...


If Obama win Pennsylvania on Apr 22, that will be an indication that majority whites are ready to back him for the whitehouse, Hillary should drop out. If Obama can't convince Pennsylvania whites, he will not win the election with all his blacks in November. Stop dreaming and work hard to win the whites and win the nomination.


Obama is the one that will do anything to win. He manipulated the caucus states (mostly red states) in his favor. Here in our state all of our delegates went on Caucus where only 30,000 people voted, those results were heavily favored towards Obama. But we also did a primary and almost half a million voted and those results were more equally divided. Also, during the caucus voting process all you needed to do was to show up (between 1:00 - 1:30 pm) and vote on a piece of paper without showing any kind of ID. In Texas the caucus was so chaotic that in some places were doing headcounts when counting votes. Hillary won the popular vote in Texas but Obama thinks he won there because of the caucus system. Both if you do that, then you will be double-counting votes. The caucus system is an ancient system that doesn't meet present demands nor I find it very democratic. If Obama gets the nomination he will never win the general elections unless he gets his way and we do a caucus in the entire country.



Obama indeed has some very good things to say. His decision to honor his elders is indeed a Christian thing to do. What exactly that honor translates to as The President is very hard to understand. Both candidates are made by political advertising and power brokers. Was the James Stewart movie called Mr. Deeds Goes to Washington? What will be important is how well these folks respond to their advisors and who those advisors are when the phone rings at 3AM. We know what Hillary's advisors were able to do for Bill even when he fumbled the ball and when he was stupid. One who studies man and especially those who gain any little bit of power do well to understand that men and women are both part of the human race. As such all own a tendency to wander and to slip in decisions be they made in the area of business or of morality. Three main issues before us are the war, the economic war, and the health war. Hillary is old enough to not want to see us relive the pains of our exit from Vietnam. We have entered this particular area of the world too often in the last century and by now should know better than to waste our GIs there when we could wage such wars remotely. Our economics stand at a very edge of a huge cliff and the gavel to gavel of the Rezko travel as covered by the Tribune should be looked at and Obama's palce in that total mess should be resoned it to determine if his decisions will be based on similar logic. Can we find a way to build each American a valued life while also seeking to do the same for all of the people our corporations have drug into the global task? My basic premise is there is enough if the few will stop trying to control and own the many. On health care can we loose the bonds that keep the world from being healthy? Can we allow a doctor and not a business decision to be made by building businesses that seek health for individuals without requiring that the leaders of those businesses own the equal of small countries for their homes? Can Obama do these things? I do not have near enough data and just the words are not enough. I need platforms and counts of lawmakers who will support those platforms. We need that from our media. We need that for both candidates. On that issue which should not be an issue. We can only hope that on neither end nor anywhere along the spectrum do we find that the color of our skin decides any of these issues.


The superdelegates don't have the guts to do what the Dem party needs and that is to get OBAMA out of the race! He can't beat McCain in the general because he won't win a SINGLE state that Gore and Kerry lost in 2000 and 2004. Fair or not, the Rev Wright thing is in its infancy. The ads the swiftboaters will run against Obama in the fall will knock him off in Missouri, Ohio, Fla, and other swing states. He could even lose PA. Hillary Clinton is the best chance of keeping McCain out of the White House. Example: She is beating McCain by 6 points in Missouri where McCain is beating Obama by 7. It's hopeless for Obama. He shouldn't have gone to a church where the pastor danced on the graves of 9/11 victims 5 days after the attacks. When is the Dem party going to learn that the election is about winning the electoral college, and to do that, you have to win 1 huge or a couple small swing states!!!


to CTA:

I've looked at the polls and she is far ahead of Obama and has always led among registered democrats.

As far as the states of Florida and Michigan, the state pays for the primary not the DNC and if it goes to the supreme court I don't see how they will be excluded. This country is not about disallowing votes. And personally I don't want the DNC and RNC controlling the primaries anymore, not after this. The state governments pay for them so let them run them. I don't think the DNC or the RNC should be telling states how to spend their money when the fund the primary votes.


Pennsylvania will show you just how much people are starting to think of Obama. Answer- he has NO substance other than a good speech and chant. Hillary needs to stay in this race because most of us are starting to see behind the Obama facade. Hillary will win big in Pa and other states and She can count on Florida and Michigan if these stupid Democrats ever get their act together. If Obama does become the nominee watch when alot of us vote for McCain. We dont want Obama or his angry wife or hateful racist preacher anywhere near the White House.


She can't win in the delegate counts. She can't win the popular vote. So the answer is no. Can Hillary steal the nomination through back door political dealings? Absolutely!


Democrats for Obama are missing the point. He is not electable on a nationwide basis. This is not a nation that elects presidents on a popular vote. We do it state by state, with an electoral process that gave the 2000 election to Bush.

The key states that will swing the election - Florida, Ohio - will go for McCain.

Obama is the new McGovern. And, once again democrats are more willing to make a statement than win an election.


Peter:

Popular vote, including MI and FL:

Obama: 13,857,346
Clinton: 13,776,704

Just including Florida (not MI, where he wasn't on the ballot)

Obama: 13,857,346
Clinton: 13,448,395

And if you take out the caucuses entirely, the popular vote is:

Obama: 13,281,132
Clinton: 12,577,409


A very curious thing about those bloggers who describe themselves as "I am a 60+ white woman" or "I am a 70+ white woman" blah blah blah... but I support Obama anyway.

What does it matter what your age, gender and ethnicity is? There is no way to verify your claims, so it is completely irrelevant.


Hillary did not make Barack listen to Wright. She had nothing to do with his judgment about the entire church situation. Michelle on her own stated she was not ever proud of America before her husband got the nod. I know Hill is far from perfect but so is Barack and we need to stop pretending he is and help him to defend himself against the 527's if he is the nominee. The more we deny he is has some credibility issues the more we put him into an unwinable situation. The republicans will never give him a pass and despite what people think is going on now it is only going to get a lot worse in the fall. There will be no gloves on then. McCain will, not only not be chastised for his criticism of him, and his lack of experience or his patriotism he will be encouraged to point it out.


Everyone in the democratic party should be glad that Hillary is hanging in their. Why? The media is just now introducing Obama to the voters. We know how his polls dropped after the Rev. Wright situation. Now what will come out during the Rezko trial? What will his relationship with William Ayers reveal, etc., etc., etc. Right now there are just too man unanswered questions about Obama. It is better for the voters to find out NOW before the general election. Why? Common sense lets you know that the republicans already knew about Rev. Wright and know about Rezko, Ayers and probably much more. After Bush we can not afford to put our heads in the sand. At this point I think that Obama has surrounded himself with many questionable individuals. Time to connect the dots.


Are all you OBAMA supporters just IDIOTS???
Obama will NEVER survive a campaign against McCain. The Jeremiah Wright 20 year association ALONE will defeat him.
WAKE UP and get behind Hillary ---if you don't want 4 more years of Republican rule. Honestly --it's so the democrat party to be wide-eyed naive idiots chanting CHANGE! Grow up and get real. Obama may have your support but in a general election against McCain and the same Republican party that backed George Bush --Obama will be chewed up and spit out before Septmeber. Shake the stardust out of your eyes and get REAL ---real fast!


Fox misled anericans about obama breally badly. This is outrageous. Just see this video to see what i am saying.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QOdlnzkeoyQ


Hilary should drop out? Why because the country just learned that Obama belongs to a Church that teaches racism, hate of America, has a political agenda that supports the destruction of Israel, etc. I see.

Hmm.

Interesting. Even though I was shocked to find out all this about Obama, and I will not vote for him after that speech, I don't think he should drop out. I am sure many don't think he is just a talking head when he
says Jews supported integration ONLY in front of Jews.


As others have said, I agree that Hillary should gracefully bow out and hope for another day in the future. Time to unify, rather than divide.


Remember 2000; the only thing that matters in November is the electoral count. Hillary's primary results seem to give her the best chance in the general election.. Why should Hillary drop out? e.g. Please explain how Obama's wins in caucuses translate into electoral votes? Is Obama counting on Hillary's supporters to vote for him? Or is he expecting them not to vote in the general election?


Absolutely she should stay in! Makes our job a lot easier.

Lovin' it!


Absolutely she should stay in! Makes our job a lot easier....I'm gonna vote for her myself in the primary, just to make sure.

Lovin' it!


Hillary should drop out now! Bill & she have done more to hurt the Democratic party than any Republican. I once respected them both...now I don't.
I won't be able to watch them go even lower to steal the nomination. Obama is our nominee.


Bill Richardson is nothing but an opportunitist. I don't think OB can win GE. The thing that bothers me these opople lack of appreciation. These people will never be successful.

I think Black benefited most during Clinton times. Without Clinton, Richardson is nothing (not to mention governor). But these people are now against Clinton. What a joke.

Black people, please remember, there will be no one more to treat better. Who will help you if you bit the finger that feed you. Please think about it.


Regardless of the total of pledged delegates and the popular vote at the end of the primaries, how can the superdelegates nominate someone who refuses to release her tax returns?

And how come Obama and the media are being so soft on her regarding this matter?


Elizabeth F-
Have you no faith?


Yes, We Can!

Obama 08!


Who will obama call for spiritual advice at 3:00 am. Will Obama call Wright, the Weatherman friend, the professor friends at the University of Chicago, or Rezko.


guys, forget about the delegate count. Obama has a lot more negatives than hillary does. Hillary is the right dem nominee. He's a racist in his own right, divisive, has bad jugdement, etc.


the thing is... when it comes time for a general election... do you really think Hilary will be able to get any republican to cross over? or even independents? i mean, seriously... for the same reason she is losing a race was supposed to win this time (the more we see her operate as a mean person, the harder it is to think of being stuck with her for four years)... for that reason.... she would lose the general as well. and... THE SUPERDELEGATES KNOW THAT


Mrs. Clinton should stay in the race as long as possible.

She's come this far. Let the last 10 states vote. At the end of that, let's see where everything lays. If Obama has both the delegate lead AND the popular vote lead, so be it - he wins. But if HRC has the popular vote lead, especially without MI and FL, then we still have a debate.

I think this is great - democracy in action.


LadyVoter:

The polls have a way of changing. A couple of weeks before Texas, she was up by double digits and yet that closed to a couple of points by the time of the primary - in which BTW, he won more delegates than she did.

MI and FL are not likely to go to the Supreme Court, mostly because the states parties decided not to rehold the primaries. But even if they did, the Court would be unlikely to interject itself in this - all organizations have the right to govern their own affairs except where there is a clear violation of laws, which is not the case.

Trying to create a specious argument about how these voters were disenfranchised is really a question for those who moved the primaries up, not the DNC, which is made up of representatives of the Democrats nationwide - remember these rules were made well before anyone gave Obama any chance at all, and thus had very little influence in the DNC.

The reality is that he has played by the rules, accepted his defeats, and moved on, in the process, getting more popular votes, more states and more delegates.


For all those Barrack fans, we all know change can be both good and bad. I only ask one question: Will you give a multinational 10 Billion Dollar corporation to a fresh garduate form Harvard and appoint him as a CEO of this corporation? I dont think so, then how do you want to give this strongest nation in the world to a rookie, who the world leaders will treat like a man with not much experience. People, think, what are you getting yourselves into?


It is time for Hillary to bow out. Democrats need to focus now on winning back the White House in the fall and unite behind the winner of the nomination process - Barack Obama.


The bigger problem I have for Mr. Obama is his pattern of saying one thing and then distancing himself from those words when the opposite is revealed at a later date. That is called "spin", folks, and certainly not "new politics". It also speaks to his platform of "good judgement". How can it be good judgement to listen to divisive words when you are also running on a platform of "unity", and listen to that for 20 years, just as an aside. We have a need and right to know Senator Obama from every angle and what he believes when he talks of equality and a "vision" for America. To say that Clinton +/or Obama is at fault for the direction the Democratic campaign has headed, is ludicrous and short-sighted. America is a melting pot of races, genders, culture, etc. and we each have a personal interest in seeing "ourselves" in our President. With that connection comes passion and emotional investment. However, it also must be tempered with information about the candidates (good and bad, without negative "label" attached to said information) so that we can make informed choices, rather than only emotionally-driven ones. To Americans: try to take off the blinders of opinion polls, media spin, mud and excitement and remember what this race is really about: Hiring someone to do the toughest and,arguably, most important job on the planet. Being President of the US isn't about speeches, promises and what-if's - it is about who you believe will get up, everyday, and work their butt off for every hardworking American, because they have a track record of that already. That person is Senator Clinton. She has worked hard and diligently for all Americans, and spent years building strong relationships because she has a passionate vision of what America can be, not just because she's running for President. Vetted, intelligent, tested and hardworking. Senator Clinton is the right choice for me in '08


This is not exactly the time for a rookie. Our country is facing some mega issues. I fell out of love with Hillary over illegal immigration, but Obama is just too risky. He does not have the resume and legitimate questions have been raised about both his character and his spine.

At time like this it is prudent to go with someone we know, warts and all.


Hillary has no real "path" that ends in her winning the presidency. She carries a heavy load of negatives in the electorate at large. There is an illusion of a path - raise Obama's negatives. In other words, trash him. This will raise his negatives as well as hers - thus securing the path of McCain to the presidency.

This contest was for the Dems to lose and lose they will if they allow Hillary's ambition to override the good of the Dem party.

Obama can win against McCain, if he is not trashed with bogus guilt by association and other dirty tricks from Hillary surrogates. He can fight the Republicans but the internecine warfare of the Dems will do him and Hillary in.

The only hope for the Dems is if Hillary quits right now.


Just days before the 1948 general election, everyone except the candidate himself was sure Harry Truman was finished. The result was everyone except the candidate himself was wrong. Harry Truman won that election. Almost 60 years later, history is going to repeat itself in Hillary Clinton.


"Will you give a multinational 10 Billion Dollar corporation to a fresh garduate form Harvard and appoint him as a CEO of this corporation?"

He's 46 and has 20+ years of legislative experience. She's 60 and has 8 years of legislative experience.

Of course, she does have more money than he does - she did manage to find $5m to lend her campaign. Now, where might that have come from? As a Senator, she makes $169k a year, and Bill made $400k a year - so even if they didn't pay taxes (where are those pesky returns, anyway????) they still don't have enough from their government salaries to have that kind of money.


Hillary should do the honorable thing and drop out quickly. Obama leads in total delegates, total popular votes, total states won, funds raised etc. Even the big states Hillary won were by close margins with very few exceptions. Superdelegates should converge behind Obama right now, and let Obama bring the country together.


I think that Obama and Clinton should stay in until June 3rd. All voters need to be heard, if Hillary can win 8 out of the 10 contests left, it will give her a huge amount of mo going into June and a lot of superdelegates will have to see that the Wright issue hurt him, as I know it has in my house and family.


It's becoming increasingly clear that Obama is unelectable because of, yes, his racist underside, his inexperience and his insistence on being the presidential candidate or nothing--and that's a short list. The American people deserved an apology from Obama this week as a result of his supporting Rev Wright. Instead of an amends we received a lecture and rationalization of his mistakes. Obama is not fit to be president. He's too arrogant to be responsible, weaseling out with words. Obama will say anything to get elected...in the loftiet way.

Once upon a time I was an Obama supporter and I voted for him in the past. I will never vote for him again.


Hillary can't run her own house.
Hillary can't run her own camp.
what on earth, Hillary thinks that she can run this country!!!
what a joke!!
give it up Hillary.

This is Hillary's dilemma: Hold on to the bait, and both Clinton and the Democrats lose. Let go of the bait, and Obama wins. Hillary Clinton's victory in November is not an option.
Hillary's attitude is "it must be me, or nobody!"

After seven years of Bush/Cheney violations of treaties and international law, of trashing the Constitution, of defying Congressional subpoenas, and of nullifying acts of Congress with signing statements, it is not likely that the American public will have much stomach for another President that regards herself as unbound by rules or, by implication, by law.


Hillary has a clear path to the nomination; and pigs have wings. Sure, never say never, but noboyd with any perspective can say that the odds of Hillary overcoming the popular vote (Florida included, because you just can't include the vote in Mi where Obama's name wasn't on the ballot), the elected delegate count and the # of states won, are anything but modest heading, with Richardson's endorsement of Obama, toward miniscule.


Hillary should do the honorable thing and drop out quickly. Obama leads in total delegates, total popular votes, total states won, funds raised etc. Even the big states Hillary won were mostly by close margins. Superdelegates should converge behind Obama right now. Let's not blame him for statements made by his pastor. Let's give him the chance to bring this country together, just like Bill Richardson rightly said.


Democratic voters love Hillary and Bill Clinton. Hillary received much of her Foreign Policy experise as her roll as First Lady. What better experience than to meet all of the world leaders adn be a two term Presiedents personal confidante.

Hillary is winning in Pennsylvania, Indiana, and remakably in North Carolina this week. She Got the Pa. congressman and former Marine John Murtha's endorsement. Clintons small donors surged by $20 million this month. We are headed to closed primaries where Republicans are re-registering in record numbers to vote for Hillary.

Clinton won N.M. and Richardson voted for Obama. That opens the door for Superdelegates to for vote Hillary even if Obama won their causus states.

Obama needs all the media help he can get because Wright, the weathermen, and Rezko are not going away and neither is Hillary.

By the way what was Obama doing with Wright and Kadafi?