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By Glenn Thrush
Hillary Rodham Clinton is staking her political future on a win in Texas -- but her top aides are desperately seeking a rationale to keep fighting even if she loses the Lone Star State.
As recently as mid-February, Clinton enjoyed double-digit leads in Texas and Ohio, with the campaign's brain trust predicting big wins in both states to break an 11-contest losing streak and eliminate Barack Obama's 112-delegate advantage.
That confidence has all but vanished, along with Clinton's big leads. In Ohio, she's still up by a few points; Obama now enjoys an edge of as many as 4 points in Texas, although there are signs Clinton's hard-edged TV ad portraying Obama as soft on defense may have given her a small bump.
For weeks, Clinton staffers have privately conceded that losing Texas could prove fatal. One aide, speaking on condition of anonymity, recently told Newsday that such a loss would send the campaign into a "death spiral" -- prompting a donor revolt and defections by exhausted staffers, culminating with superdelegates asking her to quit for the good of the party.
"They are going to have a very hard choice to make after Tuesday if she loses Texas or Ohio," top Obama adviser David Axelrod said Saturday. "There are people in the party who are very concerned about this turning into some kind of a Bataan Death March."
Bill: She must win Texas, Ohio
Clinton's chief strategist, Mark Penn, laughed off such suggestions. "There are 16 remaining contests after Tuesday," he said. "There's nothing wrong with letting the people in the remaining jurisdictions have their say."
Still, Bill Clinton himself has suggested his wife would drop out after a loss, telling a Texas audience Feb. 21: "If she wins Texas and Ohio, I think she will be the nominee. If you don't deliver for her then I don't think she can be."
While the candidate predicted victory Saturday during a fundraiser in San Antonio, she added, "We have to win on Tuesday."
But if the Clintons' family message is do-or-die (with wiggle room), her brain trust is aggressively pushing live-to-fight-another-day alternatives.
On Friday, communications chief Howard Wolfson told reporters the "onus" was on Obama to win Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island. A few days earlier, Harold Ickes, e Clinton's lifeline to superdelegates, said the former first lady would reconsider her candidacy only if she lost Ohio and Texas.
If Texas lost, will aides stay?
Joe Trippi, who ran John Edwards' campaign until the former North Carolina senator dropped out Jan. 30, said he wasn't surprised by the mixed messages. "I've been through this, I know it's a hard decision to make," said Trippi. "But if she loses Texas, how can she march forward? She can be stubborn and her staff can march her over the cliff."
Mark Penn -- who had predicted Clinton and Obama would be "virtually tied" after Tuesday -- wouldn't say if Clinton would remain in the race if she lost either state. But he suggested her chances improve each day as voters experience "buyer's remorse" over Obama.
"The vetting process for Senator Obama has just begun and there's six weeks alone between now and the April 22] Pennsylvania ]," said Penn, who has urged reporters to pay close attention to the trial of former Obama associate Tony Rezko this week.
Renewed funds, caucus slam
The don't-quit camp is also taking solace from a rejuvenated fundraising operation that is now competitive with Obama's. The campaign broke its one-month cash record in February, raising more than $30 million in small online donations after Clinton announced she loaned her campaign $5 million.
Aides have also hinted at a possible strategy to rationalize a loss in Texas based on discrediting the state's unpopular primary-caucus hybrid. On Friday, Texas Democratic Party officials reported that her operatives were planning a lawsuit to block the caucus, arguing its rules discriminate against some voters.
A Clinton spokesman denied rumors of a pending legal challenge, but made no secret of Clinton's displeasure with caucuses in general. Whatever the outcome Tuesday, Obama's aides argue that Clinton is already a loser because Ohio and Texas are both tight, robbing her of big delegate gains even if she wins the popular vote in both states.
"The Clinton campaign had one task on March 4, and that was to very seriously erode our pledged delegate lead, and they are going to fail by that measure and fail miserably," Obama campaign manager David Plouffe told reporters on Friday.
Comments
Vibrant democracy calls for the Democratic nomination process to continue to the Democratic Convention in Denver, Colorado.
For the sake of America, rational Democrats must stand up to black racism, the radical left-wing cultists, and the pro-Obama biased media. To keep the fight alive and powerful, rational Democrats must support Hillary Clinton with regular contributions to match the cult money machine.
Go Hillary!!
Posted by: crat3 | March 2, 2008 11:21 AM
Mr. Wolfson, put those goalposts DOWN! You planted them in Texas, and in Texas they stay.
Posted by: Deborah | March 2, 2008 11:30 AM
Nice! Billary is determined to bring down the entire party - yet again. Just like Gore in 2000, they are willing to usher in another undeserving GOP Presidency. Cue
the tears please for Billary Clinton. She can only win if they are successful in changing all of the rules. How ironic - hanging chads anyone?
Posted by: karl | March 2, 2008 12:00 PM
"...rational Democrats...."
Now there's a cunning strategy to win over the hearts and minds of poor, befuddled Democrats like me.
Brilliant.
Posted by: Doug "Hussein" Zook | March 2, 2008 12:02 PM
The issue is not and never has been whether to vote for Hillary Clinton, but rather whether to let the Clintons (remember his constant phrase "buy one get one free"?)get back into the White House. It's high time to see through their sham claims on the campaign trail.
Posted by: Henry | March 2, 2008 12:31 PM
So, even though the evidence may be mounting after TX and OH, Hill is going to stay in? Why?
For once can't the Clinton's fall on their sword for the sake of the Democratic party and let Obama have a wack at McCain.
If he fails and we have McCain for 4 years, the US will be in deeped hole and Hillary will then be the second comming that they accuse Obama of being.
Do what is best for the country, do what is best for the party and end the run when it is clear it is over.
I could see her running as an independent because she is unhappy at the results.
Posted by: Buckley O' Hussein | March 2, 2008 12:32 PM
Maybe some rational Democrats would rather vote for someone who wouldn't owe 30 years of political debt to every Tom, Dick and Harry if they won the nomination. Maybe some rational Democrats aren't foxed in by a Clinton's campaign strategy against hope, conciliation, and the democratic process itself. Maybe some rational Democrats would like to see someone other than a Bush or a Clinton leading the country. When the chips fall, Clinton is going to end up short on PLEDGED delegates, and short on POPULAR votes. If she pushes for the inclusion of Fla. and Mich. delegates or tries to cash political debts by moving the superdels away from the pledged delegate majority, do you really think that is going to be good for the party or their chances in Nov.? Sooner or later she needs to give it up.
Posted by: Dutch101 | March 2, 2008 12:35 PM
I agree with crat3. I think the campaign should go on. I am an Obama supporter, which might sound wierd but here is why: I believe that the longer this goes on, the less mud the Republican party will be able to throw at Obama. I think if Hillary can play nice and run a decent campaign the party will continue to grow and get its very attractive grassroots ideology back, which is very attractive, even to a republican like myself. PA will be all over Obama. I live in Republicanville, and Obama will score a KNOCKOUT in PA due to the overwhelming change of party affiliation I have seen.
Posted by: Nate | March 2, 2008 1:19 PM
I thought she had to win by 10 or 20 points to make a dent in the delegate lead? A close race will not help her. BUT... if her goal is to beat Obama up enough that McCain beats him in November and then she can ride in on her white horse in 4 years...staying in might help THAT scenario.
Posted by: Paladine | March 2, 2008 1:21 PM
It was announced this morning on Cincinnati news stations that some poll workers would be able to take the voting machines home overnight??? Ohio had been Hillary Country...is this the latest trick? Three female poll workers were convicted in the last election for such fraud....(I think it was Cayuhoga (sp.?) County???
Posted by: tony | March 2, 2008 1:29 PM
They would say this now, wouldn't they, since they know that the ground breaking victory in these two must-win states is hardly likely. How fast they change their words! Unbelieable people! Barely a week and a half ago, Bill was making a public admission that Hillary had to win these two states to stay in the race. Did anybody tape that to use it against these two if they try to play word games they are so famous for ?
Posted by: Barry | March 2, 2008 1:41 PM
"They are going to have a very hard choice to make after Tuesday if she loses Texas or Ohio," top Obama adviser David Axelrod said Saturday. "There are people in the party who are very concerned about this turning into some kind of a Bataan Death March."
Bill: She must win Texas, Ohio.
I think that says it all but apparently some do not agree...
"Vibrant democracy calls for the Democratic nomination process to continue to the Democratic Convention in Denver, Colorado.
For the sake of America, rational Democrats must stand up to black racism, the radical left-wing cultists, and the pro-Obama biased media. To keep the fight alive and powerful, rational Democrats must support Hillary Clinton with regular contributions to match the cult money machine."
Go Hillary!!
Posted by: crat3 | March 2, 2008 11:21 AM
crat3 whatever kind of name that is, comments like cult money machine are the exact kind of thinking that has sunk the Hillary campaign. I'll be glad when Wed gets here so your Clinton paycheck dries up and your forced to scurry over to the McCain camp to see if they will pay you for these kind of propaganda style comments. Your shooting your own candidate in the foot and you don't even get it. God frobid you actually do get it and somebody just handed you a script, because it sure is right out of the Clinton playbook. That's one of the reasons why I jioned the "money cult."
Obama 2008. He's got my vote and my MONEY!!!
"Bataan Death March."
I love it!!!
Posted by: Logic Prisoner | March 2, 2008 2:01 PM
Goal posts?
Has anybody seen the goal posts?
Who's got the goal posts?
!GOBAMA!
Posted by: Doug "Hussein" Zook | March 2, 2008 2:21 PM
"There are 16 remaining contests after Tuesday. There's nothing wrong with letting the people in the remaining jurisdictions have their say."
Mark Penn, Clinton's chief strategist
I'm a Barack fan and I couldn't agree with this more.
How can you ignore the votes of the remaining states? It's undemocratic!
I think the whole primary season is poorly planned. The remaining states should either have earlier primaries or other states should have theirs later.
I support FOUR regional primaries the next time as follows.
Iowa, NH, NV and South Carolina.
Small and medium size states.
Remaining medium states.
Megastates.
Posted by: Bud McFarlin | March 2, 2008 2:49 PM
It took a month for TeamHRC to understand and reply to TeamBHO. It will take another month and a half for Hillary to release her tax returns and/or allow them to be scrutinized. Every other presidential candidate has already released theirs. The game didn't go their way, so now all we hear are excuses.
Imagine the kind of shambles (WhiteHouse and government) that would result from a Clinton II. What a mess!
Posted by: kravitz | March 2, 2008 3:40 PM
YOU MIGHT BE AN IDIOT:-)
If you think Barack Obama with little or no experience would be better than Hillary Clinton with 35 years experience.
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think that Obama with no experience can fix an economy on the verge of collapse better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-) husband (Bill Clinton) led the greatest economic expansion, and prosperity in American history.
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think that Obama with no experience fighting for universal health care can get it for you better than Hillary Clinton. Who anticipated this current health care crisis back in 1993, and fought a pitched battle against overwhelming odds to get universal health care for all the American people.
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think that Obama with no experience can manage, and get us out of two wars better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-) husband (Bill Clinton) went to war only when he was convinced that he absolutely had to. Then completed the mission in record time against a nuclear power. AND DID NOT LOSE THE LIFE OF A SINGLE AMERICAN SOLDIER. NOT ONE!
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think that Obama with no experience saving the environment is better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-) husband (Bill Clinton) left office with the greatest amount of environmental cleanup, and protections in American history.
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think that Obama with little or no education experience is better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-) husband (Bill Clinton) made higher education affordable for every American. And created higher job demand and starting salary's than they had ever been before or since.
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think that Obama with no experience will be better than Hillary Clinton who spent 8 years at the right hand of President Bill Clinton. Who is already on record as one of the greatest Presidents in American history.
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think that you can change the way Washington works with pretty speeches from Obama, rather than with the experience, and political expertise of two master politicians ON YOUR SIDE like Hillary and Bill Clinton..
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think all those Republicans voting for Obama in the Democratic primaries, and caucuses are doing so because they think he is a stronger Democratic candidate than Hillary Clinton. :-)
Best regards
jacksmith...
Posted by: jacksmith | March 3, 2008 9:50 AM
End this now, Hillary.
You have lost and the only thing you can do is damage your legacy and Barack's run for the presidency. I knew you didn't see it this way, but if you bow out gracefully you will be the unchallenged leader of Congressional Democrats for the next generation- not a bad gig in my humble opinion.
Posted by: Jones | March 3, 2008 11:37 AM