by Rick Pearson
The election of Democrat Bill Foster to a congressional seat held by Republicans for decades illustrated once again the power of timing in politics -- a contest framed by a sour economy that pitted a newcomer against a perennial candidate in a district shifting away from its GOP roots.
As Foster made a special election thank-you tour Sunday of the massive 14th Congressional District that former GOP House Speaker Dennis Hastert represented for 20 years, Republicans and their losing candidate, Jim Oberweis, sought answers to prevent the same result in their fall rerun for the full two-year congressional term.
"I think it was an enthusiasm for something different," Foster said as he stopped at buffets and diners in Batavia, Elgin, Geneva and Dixon.
But as much as the win by the little-known Foster reflected voters' desire for the elusive political factor of change, the election to finish out the retired Hastert's term that expires in January also was a referendum on Oberweis. And it symbolized the state of a listless GOP in Illinois that finds itself without a power base and plagued by infighting.
With the possibility of favorite-son candidate Sen. Barack Obama becoming the Democratic presidential nominee, Republicans acknowledge a potentially bleak scenario for Illinois' 2008 congressional elections, in which Democrats could pick up four of the nine seats held by Republicans entering this year.
See the rest of the report in today's Tribune:
Some Republicans predict an Obama-led ticket could help Foster win his rematch in the far west suburban 14th District, with Democrats also capturing the south suburban 11th District being vacated by the retiring GOP Rep. Jerry Weller.
An Obama-led ticket also could put strong pressure on the west suburban Republican 6th Congressional District seat narrowly won by Rep. Peter Roskam two years ago, as well as the North Shore 10th District that Rep. Mark Kirk held in an uncomfortably close 2006 contest.
"There's just going to be a tidal wave if Barack is on the ballot," one longtime state Republican official said. "There are going to be people coming out of the woodwork, and they're going to vote Democratic."
Such a scenario would turn on its head the nearly even 10-9 split between Democrats and Republicans in the state's congressional delegation at the start of the decade to a 14-5 Democratic advantage. With Illinois facing likelihood of losing one seat following the 2010 post-census redistricting, Democrats could move to take away a Republican seat if they can keep control of the governor's office and legislature to draw the new boundary map.
Democrats nationally sought to tie Saturday's outcome to the presidential election, suggesting it portrayed dissatisfaction for Republican White House oversight of an economy teetering on recession and an unpopular war in Iraq. Obama appeared in a TV ad for Foster, while presumptive Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain of Arizona appeared at a fundraising event for Oberweis.
"This is going to be a Democratic year. If we can take Denny Hastert's seat back in Congress, you know people really want a change," Howard Dean, the Democrats' national chairman, told ABC's "This Week."
Rep. Rahm Emanuel of Chicago, who heads the House Democratic Caucus, noted that in less than two years, Democrats have captured seats held by a former House speaker as well as former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay of Texas.
"Never in history have both the majority leader and the speaker lost [their seats in back-to-back elections] to the other party," Emanuel said. "It's unprecedented. It reflects a huge level of anger at the Republican Party."
But Republicans sought to minimize any larger national Democratic trend lines.
Karen Hanretty, a spokeswoman for the national GOP's congressional campaign committee, said in a statement that "one election in one state does not prove a trend." Making an unusual comparison for a Republican, Hanretty maintained that the back-and-forth of Democratic presidential primary victories between Obama and rival Hillary Clinton was "evidence" that "there has been no national trend this entire election season."
Pushing aside national issues and the dubious effect of presidential coattails, there were plenty of parochial factors at play in Foster's victory.
The former Fermilab scientist and businessman is a political newcomer who used his personal wealth to establish campaign credibility in a district that has watched its conservative GOP base erode to rapid population growth in Kendall and Kane Counties. Foster keyed on a direct issue-oriented message, playing to a war-weary public and fears about the troubled economy while embracing an expansion of health care and an immigration-reform package that included a path to citizenship -- important in a district with large numbers of undocumented immigrants.
But in losing his fourth election, following unsuccessful bids for the Republican nomination for Senate and governor, Oberweis, a wealthy investor and dairy owner, had already lost any claims of being a political outsider. Despite his bids for other more significant offices, on the day he announced for Hastert's seat in August he said it was his "goal in life" to be a congressman.
Oberweis' lengthy list of previous campaign faux pas -- such as using false newspaper headlines to attack an opponent in a TV ad for governor and a famed Senate ad showing him in a helicopter over Soldier Field overstating the illegal immigration problem -- also provided ample opportunities for Foster to defend against Republican attacks.
In addition to the negativity of the contest, some Republicans said they fielded complaints from voters who reported receiving more than a dozen automated calls from the Oberweis campaign as well as countless mailings, which they contended did little to motivate people to vote in a Saturday election, let alone vote for the GOP contender.
At the same time, there was no healing over Oberweis' bitter primary contest against state Sen. Chris Lauzen of Aurora, who did not back the GOP nominee. Lauzen had difficulties as a congressional candidate, but his decision not to endorse Oberweis sidelined a potent grass-roots organization that could have helped the Republican candidate.
In the special primary on Feb. 5, nearly 43,000 Republican votes were cast for Oberweis and Lauzen in Kane County. On Saturday, Oberweis received little more than 28,000 votes in Kane, Lauzen's home county.
In contrast, the falloff of votes among the Democratic contenders in the special primary on Feb. 5 and what Foster received on Saturday was only about 6,000 ballots.
With all 568 precincts reporting in the district, Foster received 52,010 votes, or 53 percent, to Oberweis' 46,988 votes, or 47 percent.




Comments
For the republicans..I see a bad moon arising. They are laughing at us now as we decide on a choice, but what they fail to notice is the sheer numbers of people coming out to support the democrats.
Posted by: bill "Hussein" r. | March 10, 2008 8:13 AM
There's no way Foster should have won, but he did. If they are really "seeking answers," they need to find a different rich guy with a softer tongue. This one can't seem to control himself.
Posted by: Grandblvd03 | March 10, 2008 9:16 AM
It's time for the Illinois Republican Party to tell Jim Oberweis to go back to the dairy and give someone else a shot. It's not lack of name recognition that is making him lose; this time, he ran against a political newcomer and lost anyway. We all know who he is, and we don't like him.
Posted by: DaveB | March 10, 2008 9:20 AM
da-dadadada-da ♪
Note to all D'mimes in the glass box..
da-dadadada-da ♪
here they come
da-dadadada-da ♪
the march of the Democrats
da-dadadada-da ♪
they can't be stopped
da-dadadada-da ♪
quick, pick a country and move to it
da-dadadada-da ♪
Posted by: C.Morris | March 10, 2008 9:45 AM
Bill "Hussein,"
I would count on that number dropping for two reasons:
1. Some are Republicans throwing the Dems into a tight race.
2. Many are avid Obama or Clinton supporters who will not support the winning nominee.
Further, watch for massive WHITE FLIGHT if Barack wins.
This election isn't important in terms of who wins the presidency. What matters is if Democrats can:
1. Play fair (the complaint against GW in 2000 was he didn't win fair)
2. Whether Dems can stay united if a black becomes the nominee.
The jury is out and won't be back until November.
Posted by: Bud McFarlin | March 10, 2008 9:47 AM
Liberal socialist Bill Foster chalked up his win to voters dissatisfied with Republicans and to demographic changes caused by ever spreading urban sprawl. What a loony tune nowhere in polls was the Algore mantra of suburban sprawl even hinted at by voters. This Jackass is crazy.
Wait till the $2.4 trillion Democrat tax increase which will cost average voters $3,205 dollars more per year according to Freedom Watch. Then Pelosi's 18 billion tax on oil companies will be passed on to you liberal chumps by higher gas prices in the middle of a recession. Democrats are plain dangerous Illinois is a cesspool thanks to the Gov and Strogers highest sales tax in any American city.The state is bankrupt and creditors don't get any money with Tom Hynes passing out the checks at a snails pace because he can't help it the state is broke.
Foster looks like Adlai the III a real liberal. Hopefully the GOP can chronicle and hold him accountable for all Dick Durbin's mistakes by watching every vote he casts. Foster says he's going to rely on Dickie Durbin's advice wow what a fruit cake! Wakeup liberals maybe Illinois should just file for bankruptcy and hold you socialists accountable--better than what we have now. Jerry White, Springfield, IL
Posted by: Jerry White | March 10, 2008 9:58 AM
The Democrats could have run Kermit the Frog against Jim Oberweis, and still claimed the seat.
Win by forfeit.
Posted by: two cents | March 10, 2008 10:14 AM
Jerry:
Please go back on your meds - your rambling is getting worse and worse. Anyone who uses Freedom Watch as a reference for economic data has at least a few screws loose.
Pelosi's "tax increase" is really taking back the tax breaks W gave all his oil company buddies so that they could make record profits this year.
Posted by: BobinATL | March 10, 2008 10:25 AM
The election results from Saturday's election should be a BIG wakeup call for the Republican Party in Illinois. This was an election they were asking to lose. I hope they are listening because if they are not there are going to be more losses in Illinois. First of all Jim Oberweis was the wrong candidate to run. He is too far to the right and antagonized too many people. Oberweiss turned off many Republican and Independent voters. GOP turn out was low. Plus there was a split among the Republicans going back to the primary. He should realize that he has run many times for public office and he cannot win. Even the Chicago Tribune endorsed the Democratic. An average Republican candidate that is a moderate Conservative could have won this race. The Republican Party of Illinois is in the worst shape that I have seen in my lifetime. If they do not start running decent candidates in the Percy, Thompson Edgar mode there will be more such losses. We need a two party state. The Democrats already have complete control the state government and are making a huge mess in Springfield. This will continue as long as the GOP does not wake up and smell the coffee. No excuse for Saturday's loss.
Posted by: Depot Jim | March 10, 2008 10:28 AM
As a Republican who does not live in the district, I am sorry we lost a seat, but not at all sorry Oberweis lost. His campaigning reeks! I hope he withdraws and that someone else can run in November.
Posted by: John Johnson | March 10, 2008 10:34 AM
You said it, Two Cents.
This election just reflects the state of the worthless IL GOP. In fact, I stopped thinking of Illinois in terms of Democrats and Republicans some time ago. Both parties here do their own thing to keep the Illinois machine going.
By the way, loyal Swampers, it's been over a year now since the Democrats took the Congress. Progress anyone? I see we're still in Iraq and the Dems still haven't voted to cut funding to for the war. Didn't I warn you all back then not to get your hopes up? Really, is either party trying to act on the promises they made to those who voted for them? I don't think so.
Posted by: no name | March 10, 2008 10:34 AM
Stop running Jim Oberweis! He cannot win at the game of politics! He might be a decent candidate, but his ads are dreadful and he runs with a sense of arrogance that just lacks a certain appeal.
Posted by: Steve S | March 10, 2008 10:43 AM
How many more times is "Helicopter" jim Oberweis going to have to lose before he gives it up? 6 elections in 6 years...zero wins.
Is he all the Republicans have left in the state?
Posted by: Luke | March 10, 2008 10:43 AM
Considering Blago, Stroger Junior, and Emil Jones, you democrats really don't have anything to be bragging about either.
Illinois boasting the highest sales tax, the highest gas prices and the highest utility rates in the country.
Look how great all democrat control is.
Posted by: Thomas | March 10, 2008 10:45 AM
Notice that when Republican Bobby Jindal won the governorship of Louisiana, for the first time for a Republican since reconstruction, the media were totally silent about this being a portent of the future for the GOP? But, one seat for the Democrats in the House and it's a media wave.
Posted by: Damen | March 10, 2008 10:56 AM
The difference between the Republic Party and the Democratic Party can be effectively illustrated by showing your kids pictures of successful ice cream makers. The Democratic Party is symbolized by the two jovial, fun loving, hip, and good natured Ben & Jerry. The Republic Party is symbolized by grade A
a$%hole Jim Oberweis. A quasi-racist fear mongerer who inspires nobody except the lowest common denominators of society.
Posted by: john | March 10, 2008 11:13 AM
I am going to be watching the results very carefully this year. Remember 2006? The Democrats (Dimwitocrats) said that business as usual was to end.
So, what do they do? Hold a hearing on baseball and steroids. Give our enemies a reason to in future torture prisoners because we'd rather interrogate using a tea party with Rosie O'Donnell.
To all the Dems out there, remember that you will be responsible for such monumental failures such as The Great Society generation coming home to roost. And I won't continue to support greedy, stupid baby boomers who won't grow up.
Posted by: Tom | March 10, 2008 11:15 AM
When the Il GOP has only crackpots like Oberweis and Alan Keyes to run for office, it's doomed for years to come.
Posted by: Napper Tandy | March 10, 2008 11:22 AM
It should be very interesting to see if the party can learn from it's mistakes. They have the rare opportunity of a "do-over" in November, and could really make a go of it if they just pick someone else. Democrats had better hope that they don't.
Posted by: justaguytoo | March 10, 2008 11:28 AM
Can Jim Oberweis get another hobby other than running for any sort of elected office?
The people have spoken numerous times and they don't want you in any office you've ever run for.
I'm a life-long Republican and the state of the Illinois Republican party is abysmal. We keep recycling the same goofballs over and over.
Jim, please retire and stop trying to run for some office; any office...
Posted by: Christopher | March 10, 2008 11:45 AM
Oh yes, Jim Oberweis, the 'Lar Daly' of the Republican party,,,,never mind, he was a Republican, too.
Posted by: C.Morris | March 10, 2008 11:58 AM
Foster won because Oberweis should stick to daddy's milk business. Jim is perhaps the least likeable political candidate I've seen in my lifetime. He comes across like an arrogant egomaniacal fanatic. I don't think that this is indicative of a dramatic Democratic shift as much as it's a case of a horrible Republican candidate. You've got to be pretty bad to lose that seat.
Posted by: J. Lather | March 10, 2008 12:22 PM
First of all ... Iraq is not a War, it is an Invasion. The War on terrorism is a total farce to steal money for the Industrial Military Complex, and is only a euphemism for immoral invasions after Afghanistan.
You cannot cut funding for the "War" or the illegal immoral Invasion of Iraq while Bush is in office. It is very complex, and there are only certain things that can be done, to curb the spending. You have to have a pro retrograde candidate to cut funding for this BS "War".
Obama needs to come out and state that there is going to be a mandate for Hydrogen Fuel.
Posted by: Dusty N Bones | March 10, 2008 12:35 PM
Jim Oberweis has every right to run. He won a Republican primary against several other candidates. If somebody stronger runs against him, Oberweis will not win. If Republicans don't run strong candidates, they will lose.
This is not so complicated folks...
Posted by: strut2k | March 10, 2008 1:05 PM
Dusty, thank you for calling America's brave troops invaders and not the liberators that they really are. You've shown yourself to be on the side of Saddam and tyranny. If only all lefties were so honest.
Posted by: Jeff | March 10, 2008 1:15 PM
Let's all remember that this whole mess could've been avoided if Hastert simply would have served out the term that the voters last elected him to, as well. Even in retirement Denny screws the party.
Posted by: Jeff | March 10, 2008 1:20 PM
Bud McFarlin, you're a singularly ignorant person. The vast majority of Democrats will support and vote for whoever gets the Democratic nomination...if it turns out to be Senator Obama, it certainly will NOT split the party. And as far as "massive white flight" if Senator Obama is elected, you seem to forget that Illinois has elected African-American senators TWICE in the past 16 years, with Senator Obama being the most popular politician hands-down...and there has not been a trickle of "white flight" from Illinois.
On the other hand, if his election causes "massive white SUPREMICIST flight", tens of millions of Americans will be happy to help you pack...maybe we can even make a deal for you to buy up Jonestown, Guyana.
Posted by: Dean | March 10, 2008 1:29 PM
Jeff hold your breath.
Dusty Boners isn't even worth responding to.
Posted by: Steve S | March 10, 2008 1:30 PM
Dust is correct. The Iraqi occupation was and is illegal. Americans hate the fact they were lied into this quagmire and they took it out on Oberweis.
I see that resident chickenhawks Steve S and Jeffy are back from their latest tour of duty. Oh, wait.
Posted by: weinerdog43 | March 10, 2008 1:57 PM
I agree with John J. I'm a long-time Republican living in the 8th Congressional District. Republicans cannot run a worthwhile candidate. Some (remember Alan Keyes) have been an embarassment. Democrats have not done much better as evidenced by the current Cook County and State administrations. We end up having to vote for the best of the worst.
Where does leadership find these people?
Posted by: Gina L | March 10, 2008 3:23 PM
Oberweis lost because he was Hastert's hand picked lackey. A Hastert endorsement in the far west suburbs is now poison. There is nothing more arrogant that a former elected official trying to hand pick his successor. Hastert has done more to hurt the Republican party in Illinois that anyone other than his old buddy George Ryan. He has only strengthened Democrats with his pork barrel gifts from congress. He is a real dummy, who can be used by anyone. I will admit however, he was smart enough to make himself a millionaire with the Prairie Parkway. His other investors may not be so lucky.
Posted by: Fred | March 10, 2008 4:16 PM
Notice that when Republican Bobby Jindal won the governorship of Louisiana, for the first time for a Republican since reconstruction, the media were totally silent about this being a portent of the future for the GOP? But, one seat for the Democrats in the House and it's a media wave.
Posted by: Damen | March 10, 2008 10:56 AM
Damen,
I loved the reference. It is important to remember that the previous governor of LA lost her seat because of the gross incompetence during Katrina.
In our case (IL), the storm is our own making. The current crop of elected "leaders" in Illinois really stink. While the Illinois Democratic Party may be celebrating the Foster victory, the truth behind the matter is that Illinois is fast approaching critical failure due to the majority of democrats currently "elected".
The future for Illinois is very bleak because no one in office (either Dem or Rep) is stepping up to the plate to solve the pending crisis(es).
Obama or no Obama, Illinois is in really bad shape.
Posted by: Mr. E. Date | March 10, 2008 4:51 PM
Mr. E-
I agree. Complete one party control is never a good thing, no matter which party. The complete collapse of the Republican Party in the state of Illinois should concern all of the citizens. There is always a need for a strong opposition party, and right now there is none what so ever. There are no Republicans holders of State wide office, and there is no realistic prospect of one in the near future. Beyond even that, there is no Republican that even seems to be waiting in the wings for their shot. There isn't a serious challenge to Durbin. Blago is ripe for the picking, and rightly so, but who are the Republicans going to dredge up to run against him? Oberweis?
Posted by: Luke | March 10, 2008 5:42 PM
Jim Oberweis, Illinois' four time loser answer to Alan Keyes!
Rev. William Hayashi
Posted by: Rev. William Hayashi | March 10, 2008 6:34 PM
Wait--did someone actually suggest a "massive White Flight" if Senator Obama gets elected president? Exactly where would such racist wonders relocate? Mayhap to South America, where many post-war Nazi's pioneered such exiles?
One can only wish them well in their effort to raise the collective IQ score of the country by emmigrating.
Seriously, I didn't notice any "White Flight" out of Illinois when Senator Obama was elected to the U.S. Senate. But maybe there was a mass exodus of pale skinned pinheads out to Idaho that I missed. It's a pleasant thought, at any rate.
Posted by: ejp | March 10, 2008 7:17 PM
Liberals, Liberals, LIBERALS!! Oh my God, you people throw that word around as though it's a dirty word. Look it up in the dictionary. It's not that bad.
Oberweis lost because he is a hateful, intolerant little tyrant. People saw through the fact that all he wants is a public office to further steal for his business and his friends businesses at the expense of everyone else. Sorry he lost. He lost 4 straight. Go home and have some ice cream and call it a day.
Let's hope in November, the democrats win big and through George and Dick and all the other republican crooks into the slammer.
Posted by: Steven | March 10, 2008 9:25 PM
And as far as "massive white flight" if Senator Obama is elected, you seem to forget that Illinois has elected African-American senators TWICE in the past 16 years.
Posted by: Dean | March 10, 2008 1:29 PM
Dean,
You seem to forget how Carol Mosely Braun won the nomination against a sitting Democrat (Alan Dixon who angered many Democrats by voting for a black Supreme Court justice who found a pubic hair in his coke can) and how she beat a no-name Republican in a state party that has been falling apart at the seams for years.
You also seem to forget how Obama trailed his Democratic opponent until Blair Hull was accused of beating his wife and how Obama's Republican party nominee imploded following sexual allegations by his ex-wife and the Republicans in IL were forced to get a black candidate from Maryland - Alan Keyes - to run against him.
So don't talk to me about ignorance. Consider yourself politically punk'd.
Posted by: Bud McFarlin | March 10, 2008 10:49 PM
Can't wait for the Dems to win in November. So we can roll back all the crap the Republicans have passed in the last 8 years. I can't wait to vote for Obama. I hope we never see another Republican President.
Posted by: dyno | March 10, 2008 10:58 PM
Please stop fighting over 'Democrats Vs. Republicans'. the problem is not the Democrats OR the Republicans in this country, the problem is the Democrats AND the Republicans. Together, they got us in a war we didn't need and was ill advised. Together, they add on so many items to the budget that never saw the light of legislative day that we end up with abundant pork and the programs we need get cut. This country is in debt out the wazzoo and our kids will pay dearly.
I just wish there were an actual party out there that I could feel really represents us. what we have is a bunch of rich guys fattening their own pocketbooks and slimming down ours year after year.
I will vote, but I will not vote for any of these clowns running for office now. time to write in someone's name who is not a thief or a wack job.
any volunteers?
Posted by: enuffalready | March 11, 2008 12:14 AM
The defeat of Oberweis is a clear defeat for anti-immigration forces and more the GOP tries to push the issue in the congress the faster it will dig its own grave..and the GOP better hope that Obama becomes President. If McCain becomes President, they will loose even more seats in 2010 with implications for everything from redistricting.
Posted by: George Chell | March 11, 2008 6:25 PM