Live-bloggin' a pivotal primary night for Democrats

By Jim Tankersley

11:40 p.m. -- Obama, taking the stage in San Antonio, just congratulated Clinton on her wins tonight, cautioned that the outcome in Texas could take until morning to be clear, and predicted "We are on our way to winning this nomination."

Perhaps he's right. We still don't know how Texas will turn out. We've got a month and a half until the next big contest, in Pennsylvania. That's an eternity in politics. And we'll need out rest to follow it. So your Swamp team is signing off for the night. Thanks for hanging out on our live blog. We hope you had as much fun as we did.

11:34 p.m., from Rick Pearson in Columbus -- Bill Clinton was known as the comeback kid, but Hillary Clinton made it clear she wanted the title as her victory in the battleground of Ohio on Tuesday night kept the extended battle for the Democratic nomination alive.

“Everyone here in Ohio and across America whose ever been counted out but refused to be knocked out, and for everyone who has stumbled but stood right back up and for everyone who works hard and never gives up, this one is for you,” she told a cheering crowd at her Columbus Athenaeum victory celebration.

“As they say, as Ohio goes, so goes the nation,” she said. “Well, this nation’s coming back and so is this campaign.”

Ohio proved to be a remarkable victory for a campaign down on its heels, reeling from a series of defeats and engaged in a frenetic search to regain the type of voters she had lost.

Lightly regarded by her campaign a year ago, rival Barack Obama’s campaign and his oratorical and fundraising skills had more than matched that of a Clinton campaign once believed inevitable. Trying to find a message that resonated with voters, she turned the struggle into success, halting Obama’s win streak, and vowing, “We’re going to go all the way.”

Top Clinton advisers acknowledged that even with the win in Ohio, as well as in smaller Rhode Island and a continued counting of ballots in Texas, there would be little change in the nominating delegate race that Obama leads and raises questions about her ultimate end-game strategy. But on Tuesday night, the end game didn’t matter. A win is a win.

11:26 p.m., from John McCormick -- Although the outcome in Texas remains unknow, reporters at Obama's rally site in San Antonio are having flashbacks to New Hampshire, when Obama's advisers were missing most of the evening, before disappearing completely after his concession speech. We have been told his campaign will send a representative soon to give their version of events this evening, but we are still waiting.

11:20 p.m. -- Hillary Clinton has taken the stage in Ohio, flanked by her chief surrogate and cheerleader there, Ted Strickland, the widely popular Democratic governor who put his political back, shoulders and legs into moving the state into Clinton's column over the last few weeks. He traveled the state, coerced endorsements, commanded media attention and threw the full force of his political operation to her aid. And it paid off.

Live-action job interviews are a rare thing in life. Strickland just had one. (Just by bringing this up, we're all-but guaranteed a rebuke from the governor, who swears he has no interest in such things, but we digress.) In delivering the state for Clinton, his friend of more than 15 years, Strickland demonstrated perhaps the most important quality Democrats are looking for in a vice-presidential nominee: the ability to bring along enough electoral votes to push the ticket into the White House.

Simply put, this calculation will be on a lot of Democrats' minds if Clinton becomes their nominee: If Strickland won Ohio for her in March, he could do it in November. Strickland will resist. But the cry will grow, especially if John McCain emerges with a lead in Ohio once both nominees are set.

11:05 p.m. -- The final results are far from in tonight, but one thing is already clear: The Democratic campaign ain't over. Or, as the chairman of the Democratic National Committee might put it, we're going to Cheyenne. And Biloxi. And Scranton, and Salem and San Juan, Yeaawwwww!

Clinton's apparent win in Ohio gives her more than enough reason, it seems, to keep up the fight against Obama -- even if she doesn't make up many delegates on him overall. That likely means she'll keep pounding him on Tony Rezko and fitness for command. She'll keep pitching superdelegates on the idea that she's won the States That Matter. And political junkies can expect at least six more weeks - until the big April vote in Pennsylvania - of wall-to-wall primary coverage.

Hey, who needs Spring Break?

10:52 p.m., from Rick Pearson -- Clinton had planned to leave Columbus and head to Washington at 10 p.m. EST but delayed the trip as the results were coming in. When a CNN graphic showed her taking her first, albeit slim, lead in the balloting in Texas, the crowd shrieked and some chanted, "Please believe. Please believe."

BREAKING NEWS: NBC has just projected Clinton will win Ohio. CNN, too.

10:42 p.m., from Jason George -- Texas voters said yes again to Dr. No.

The Associated Press is reporting that Rep. Ron Paul has bested all the other Republican challengers who hoped to unseat the congressman and presidential candidate. (No word if/when he'll follow Huckabee out the door in the big show.)

It's too early to tell if Congressman Dennis Kucinich will hold onto his Ohio seat, but early returns show him with more than half of the 30,000 or so votes tabulated.

10:27 p.m. Don't say we didn't warn you: Still nothing -- not one vote -- in from Cleveland. Also nothing in from Cincinnati and very little from Toledo. All are big urban areas. All figure to tilt heavily Obama tonight. So Hillary Clinton is getting a taste of what it usually feels like to be a Republican in statewide Ohio elections: Rack up big margins in the 'burbs and the countryside, then hold on for dear life as the cities report late and the numbers start to tighten. Is her margin enough? We'll find out.

10:14 p.m. -- John McCormick reports Obama called McCain this evening to congratulate him on securing the GOP nomination.

10:05 p.m. -- He ended his speech with a half-century-old rock-n-roll classic -- Chuck Berry's "Johnnie B. Goode" -- but John McCain focused the bulk of his nomination-clinching victory speech this evening on the future. He drew contrasts with his potential Democratic opponent, whomever he or she may be, on health care, war and experience, and he planted his flag in a rhetoric that seemed borrowed from those rival party candidates.

"We're not a country that prefers nostalgia to optimism; a country that would rather go back than forward," McCain said, according to the text provided in advance by his campaign. "We're the world's leader, and leaders don't pine for the past and dread the future. We make the future better than the past. We don't hide from history. We make history. That, my friends, is the essence of hope in America, hope built on courage, and faith in the values and principles that have made us great. I intend to make my stand on those principles and chart a course for our future greatness, and trust in the judgment of the people I have served all my life."

Jason George adds: OK, so a lot of people don't know who sang "Eye of the Tiger," which McCain walked on the stage to tonight – some folks thinks Foreigner, Journey or Survivor. (It's Survivor.)

But everyone knows the song, which can also surely be said of Chuck Berry's "Johnny B. Goode," if not for its 2 minutes and 40 seconds of raw guitar work being one of the most important tunes in the rock pantheon, then from the Back to the Future prom scene.

So as McCain uses the song to walk off stage what does Wolf Blitzer call the oldie?
"Go Johnny Go."

For shame Mr. Blitzer.

10:00 p.m., from Tribune correspondent John McCormick in San Antonio -- Sen. Barack Obama's supporters have begun assembling just a few blocks from the Alamo at the outdoor San Antonio Municipal Auditorium, where CNN and election results are being played on a giant screen.

But there is very little news here. Obama's top advisers have yet to arrive as dozens of reporters have assembled for a speech the Illinois Democrat is not expected to deliver until at least 10 p.m. Central, perhaps much later.

9:44 p.m., from Jason George -- Remember the Huckabee!

In ending his presidential bid, former Gov. Mike Huckabee made reference to the Alamo, reading tonight a letter from one of the fighters during the historic battle there who said the Alamo stand was not about him, but the greater United States.

Huckabee said that same sentiment: "Our battle was never about us; it was about our country and its liberty." It was about giving voice to those who bag groceries and " conservatives of this party who want less government."

As for tomorrow, he said he'll begin working to help get Sen. John McCain elected. After that – or how he'll help – is yet to be determined.

"We aren't going away completely we want to be a part of helping to keep the issues alive that have kept us in the race," he said with wife, Janet, at his side, in front of a dizzy-inducing digital image of a fluttering, virtual American flag.

"Thank you very, very much for going on the journey with us."

9:34 p.m. -- Two quick updates:

1) CNN just called Rhode Island for Clinton -- so the Obama win streak appears to be over.

2) Tribune correspondent Jill Zuckman reports McCain will fly to Washington first thing tomorrow to meet with President Bush at the White House and collect his endorsement, before heading over to the Republican National Committee to effectively take over the party.

9:30 p.m., from Tribune correspondent Howard Witt in Houston -- It’s going to be a long night in Texas if the lines at one sample precinct in north suburban Houston are any indication.

There were still a hundred people in line to vote when the polls closed at 7 p.m. central time, but that was only a part of the story. Another 500 people snaked in a line all around the building, waiting to get into the caucus part of the Texas primary—and a second chance to vote.

Under Texas’ unusual two-part Democratic primary, only some of the state’s delegates will be apportioned based on the popular vote. Others are up for grabs during the caucuses that got underway in precincts across the state as soon as the polls closed.

It’s a process that demands a lot of voters—stand in one long line to vote, then another long line to participate in the caucus. And because the caucus delegates will be awarded proportionally based on how many of a candidate’s supporters attend the caucus, the more voters Clinton and Obama can attract to this unusual electoral after-party, the better.

Yet despite the long wait and the chilly temperatures, the mood in the caucus line Tuesday night was boisterous. Many voters brought their children—in some cases to witness history, in others because they couldn’t find a sitter.

“I had to bring my daughter,” said Clarence Lewis, a real estate agent, holding the hand of his 5-year-old daughter Chloe. “This is the first time in history that there might be a black man who becomes president, and I wanted her to be a part of it.”

“I don’t know who I’m voting for,” a 4-year-old girl said into a cellphone as she waited in line with her grandmother. “Grandma, who are we voting for?”

Many of the caucus-goers started standing in line at 6 p.m., but it was not until 8 p.m. that they were admitted into the tiny community room in the library to register for the caucus. None said they had ever participated in anything like it before.

“It’s confusing, it’s exhausting, but it’s just so important that we are here,” said Kate Johnson, 60, another Obama supporter who brought a folding chair to help endure the long wait. “They told us Obama needed us to come, so we are here.”

In fact, the fine-print of the complex Democratic primary process in Texas presented challenges to both the candidates and the public hoping for a definitive decision from the nation’s second-largest state.

Texas will send a total of 228 delegates to the Democratic Convention, of which 35 are unpledged “super delegates” whose candidate preferences are still largely unknown. Only about half of the Texas delegates--126 of them--will be determined based on Tuesday’s primary vote in 31 state Senate districts across Texas.

Not all of those Senate districts are created equally: Their delegate richness is determined by the level of Democratic turnout in recent elections. That means that Senate districts in and around major metropolitan areas such as Houston, Dallas and Austin, where Obama is expected to run strongest among urban and African-American voters, have more delegates on offer than Senate districts in predominately Hispanic south Texas, where Clinton is favored.

What’s more, the delegates will be distributed proportionally in each district based on the votes cast for each candidate, meaning that a close contest in a district might mean a difference of only 1 delegate for either candidate. The bottom line: If either Clinton or Obama squeezes out a narrow primary victory, the number of delegates they win could end up nearly even.

Then there are another 67 Texas delegates (42 at-large and 25 super delegates) that will be allocated according to the results of a three-month-long series of local, regional and statewide caucuses.

The precinct caucuses send delegates to county/district caucuses on March 29, which are followed by a statewide convention on June 6-7. It is only at the statewide convention that delegates are finally allocated to each candidate. And the delegates are not bound by their allegiances from the precinct and county caucuses.

That means the precinct caucus results on Tuesday night will at best be a rough snapshot of support for Clinton and Obama, but those results cannot be used to accurately predict how many caucus-chosen delegates each candidate will ultimately end up with.

And if all that isn’t complicated enough, there’s this: The unusual precinct caucus process is largely untested because it has never mattered much before in previous Democratic primaries. That led both the Clinton and Obama campaigns to trade accusations of skullduggery throughout the day Tuesday, with each camp accusing the other of trying to manipulate the caucus lists or exclude opponents’ supporters from participating.

Even before Tuesday’s event, Clinton campaign officials had hinted of possible legal challenges to the caucus process.

So the Texas primary might not end for a very long time.

9:22 p.m. -- Huckabee, having long found himself on the short end of money and momentum in the Republican race, is now conceding the GOP nomination to McCain. His story flirted with the incredible -- an affable former preacher and obscure southern governor coming from the back of the polls to a surprising Iowa win -- but ran onto hard times when he failed to win South Carolina and Florida. "While many in the establishment never really believed I belonged," Huckabee just told supporters, "there were a lot of people in this country who believed I did."

9:13 p.m., from Rick Pearson -- The Clinton campaign just held a conference call alleging a host of misdeeds by the Obama campaign in Texas. Lyn Utrecht, the Clinton campaign’s general counsel said it is leaving its options open after reports that Obama supporters took precinct caucus sign up sheets early from polling places before caucuses began and that others have locked out Clinton supporters from precinct caucuses.

Reporters normally call into these conference calls and get to ask questions. But in an unusual twist, Robert Bauer, the general counsel for the Obama campaign, crashed the call and alleged that the Clinton campaign always tries to find some legal problems with caucuses because the Obama campaign is better at organizing them.

Ace Smith, Clinton’s Texas director, told reporters that a “tremendously disturbing pattern” began emerging when reports surfaced of Obama supporters grabbing the caucus sign-in sheets. Those sheets are important because they determine who will be counted in the post-primary caucuses that determine about 30 percent of the nominating delegates.

“What’s happening tonight is truly an outrage,” Smith said.

Utrecht said the Clinton campaign has been fielding a flood of “hundreds of complaints” about the precinct caucuses.

“We were hearing very disturbing reports during the day and we’ve identified witnesses and spoke to them that sign-in sheets for precinct conventions were actually being filled out at polling places during the day,” she said.

“All options are open at this point,” she said.

But Bauer questioned the motivation of the Clinton camp to threaten potential legal action, noting the Clinton campaign has had a history of leveling “a stream of allegations against the caucus process.” Obama has generally fared much better than Clinton in caucuses.

9:09 p.m. -- Jason George reports chaos just broke out on a Clinton campaign conference call, which was apparently interrupted by an Obama staffer and devolved into a shouting match. Stay tuned for his full report...

9:00 p.m. -- CNN now preeee-jects John McCain will win Texas and with it, the Republican presidential nomination. Don't call it a comeback -- he's been here for years.

Et tu, Mike Huckabee?

8:54 p.m. -- The Obama campaign has successfully sued to keep 15 Cleveland polling places open this evening, the campaign reports, because of earlier ballot shortages in those precincts.

8:45 p.m. -- Two interesting snippits from the MSNBC exit poll out of Ohio.

* Nearly one in five voters said gender was "important" in their decision on which Democrat to pick. Clinton won among those voters, 57 percent to 43 percent.

* Another one in five voters said race was "important" in their decision. Clinton also won those voters, 57 to 43.

A possible sign that Obama's race deterred Ohioans more than Clinton's gender?

8:23 p.m., from Tribune correspondent Rick Pearson in Columbus, Ohio -- At the downtown Columbus Athenaeum, where a large screen displayed CNN’s election results, hundreds of people cheered anytime a pie chart showed Clinton holding an edge over Obama, even with very low vote totals.

Campaign organizers also charged supporters with shouting “Hillary” anytime CNN cut to the venue for an update and they booed when they shifted to Obama’s headquarters.

Clinton aides were privately cautious about Ohio, noting that weather conditions had created flooding conditions in 13 counties and that weather problems resulted in many polls being kept open after closing time.

(Tankersley note: Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe just sounded much more confident on MSNBC, predicting victories in both Texas and Ohio tonight.)

(Jason George note: What's perhaps more interesting than spinning the numbers: Mcauliffe, argued that if he's right, Clinton will have won in TX and OH, as well other big states like CA, NJ and NY.

"These are huge stages for the Democratic party in the general election," he said.

Prepare to hear this argument in the days to come, no matter how tonight shakes out. )

8:04 p.m. -- This just in from the Obama campaign: Ohioans, don't move.

"With reports of lines at polling stations all over the state, the Obama for Ohio Campaign is urging voters to stay in line and vote," the campaign just said in a release. "Any voter who was in line by 7:30 and remains in line will be able to vote, no matter how long it takes to get through the line."

Translation: The campaign needs every vote it can get tonight.

7:59 p.m. -- Fun with exit polls! Fun with exit polls!

It's not even prime-time yet and we're already getting punchy...

7:50 p.m., from Jason George & Jim Tankersley -- Rep. Ron Paul is on the presidential ballots in all four states holding contests today, but in Texas he's also fighting for his Congressional seat in a heated primary race.

Texas' 14th District has picked Paul to be their man in Congress for the past decade, but Chris Peden, a local public accountant, is giving him a good run this time around. It's the reason Paul cited last month when he scaled back his presidential campaigning and staff to focus on the fight back home.

Some in Paul's district have found his presidential bid distracting. Others have criticized his refusal to request earmarks for his district, which is what the "Galveston Daily News" mentioned when they endorsed Peden last month.

Also tonight, Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich, himself a former presidential candidate, is fighting a similar primary battle to hold his Cleveland-area district in Congress.

7:35 p.m., from Jason George -- We won't know how Hispanics voted in Texas until later, but CBS2 in Chicago just reported that Spanish-speaking Hispanic voters in the Lone Star State don't like using the word "caucus" because of its proximity in Spanish slang to "caca," a vulgar slang for "excrement."

Viva local television!

7:30 p.m. -- CNN projects McCain wins Ohio. Democrats too close to call.

Your Swamp correspondent's wife is about to throttle Wolf Blitzer through the television for pronouncing "project" as "preeee-ject."

7:20 p.m. -- A few notes about the first of tonight's two Big Prizes, Ohio, where your Swamp correspondent lived and worked during the 2006 election cycle.

1) It'll be a miracle if we can call the Democratic race anytime soon. The reason? Two of the most heavily Dem counties in the state, Cuyahoga (home of Cleveland) and Lucas (home of Toledo) are notoriously slow in reporting votes in recent elections. The campaigns have already traded charges of polling-place mischief in other areas. All of that adds up to a likely slow, deliberate vote count tonight. CNN just announced polls have been ordered to stay open in another Northern Ohio county, Sandusky, until 9 p.m. tonight because of bad weather.

2) Speaking of weather -- the calendar may say March, but it's still winter in Ohio. Snow, ice and flooding have battered the state today, but counties are still projecting higher-than-expected turnout. When the results come pouring in, look to see who's banking higher turnout percentages in their likely bases -- Obama in large urban areas or Clinton in rural areas and the suburbs.

3) Here's a prediction for you: A Swamp survey of nearly a dozen political insiders and journalists in Ohio shows an average projection of a three-point win for Clinton there tonight. Stay tuned.

7:02 p.m. -- We have a winner in Burlington! Two, actually.

CNN has called Vermont for Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain, based on exit polling.

Ohio is on the clock. When will Clinton stop the Obama win streak, which is now a full dozen states?

6:58 p.m., from Jason George -- To add to those exit polls Jim just reported, an interesting answer given in both states to the question, "What's your most desired attribute in a president?" was: "change."

That's been the same answer in every state contest so far, which could be good news for Camp Obama, which also found voters saying the candidate 'more likely to beat a Republican' in both TX and OH was also Obama.

6:18 p.m.: No hints yet on who's winning where, but the Associated Press passes along this early roundup from its exit polling today:

Highlights of preliminary results from exit polls conducted for The Associated Press and television networks in Tuesday's presidential primaries in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont:

OPEN TO ALL

The primaries in Ohio, Texas and Vermont were open to all voters, while in Rhode Island registered independents could choose which party's primary to vote in. In the Democratic primaries, independents were about one in five voters in Ohio, one in four in Texas, a third in Rhode Island and four in 10 in Vermont.

Data for Republican primaries were available only in Ohio and Texas. In Ohio, independents were about one in seven GOP voters, in Texas one in five.

SUPERDELEGATES

Roughly six in 10 Democratic voters Tuesday said "superdelegates" — party leaders and elected officials who get to cast votes at the party nominating convention this summer in Denver — should vote based on results of the primaries and caucuses rather than for the candidate they think has the best chance to win in November.

Even among Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's voters, about half said the superdelegates should follow the results of the primaries and caucuses. Sen. Barack Obama's supporters were more likely to say so. Clinton is trailing in pledged delegates and depending on how the remaining primaries go, it's possible her only chance for the nomination is if many superdelegates support her at the Democratic convention.

FRETTING ABOUT THE ECONOMY

The economy was big in Ohio Democratic voters' minds — six in 10 said it's the most important issue facing the country, more than said so in any of the other 25 Democratic primaries with exit polls this year. More than half of Rhode Island Democrats and nearly as many in Texas picked the economy as the top issue out of three choices. In Vermont, almost as many voters picked Iraq as the economy — the first Democratic contest this year in which Iraq was considered about as important as the economy.

As in other Democratic primaries this year, few voters Tuesday viewed the nation's economy positively. But Texas Democrats were relatively optimistic, with one in seven saying the economy is in good condition — as many as have said that in any other state.

THE TRADE TRADE-OFF

A whopping eight in 10 in Ohio's Democratic primary said international trade takes more jobs from the state than it creates. That was closer to six in 10 in the other three states voting Tuesday.

WORRIED ABOUT FINANCES

Asked how worried they were about their family's financial situation over the next year, two-thirds of Democratic primary voters in Texas and at least seven in 10 in the other three states said they were very or somewhat worried. Ohio Democrats were most concerned, with four in 10 saying they were very worried.

HAIL TO THE CHIEF

One in seven Obama voters acknowledged Clinton as more qualified to be commander in chief; fewer than one in 20 Clinton voters said that about Obama.

WHO INSPIRES YOU?

Four in 10 Clinton voters in Ohio and Texas said Obama inspires them about the future of the country. Somewhat fewer Clinton voters in Rhode Island but two-thirds in Vermont gave Obama kudos for being inspirational. Obama voters were much less likely to call Clinton inspirational — about a quarter of them said that across the four states.

Original post:

Bad weather, balloting snags, competing claims of vote suppression and polling-place hijinks -- Ladies and Gentlemen, it's Election Night in Ohio! And in Texas! And Vermont and Rhode Island. (An exclamation point seemed a bit over-the-top for those last two.)

After a day of electoral drama, we've reached a night that once seemed an afterthought on a frontloaded primary calendar but now looms huge for Democrats. Will Hillary Clinton rebound from a string of losses and win the hotly contested, delegate-rich "big prizes" that are the Lonestar and Buckeye states? Will Barack Obama sweep both to deal Clinton's once "inevitable" campaign a fatal blow? Will the states deliver a split verdict that could prolong the Democratic race for months, possibly to the national party convention in August?

Perhaps most vexingly, will returns from Cleveland come in before midnight Eastern - and before the sun rises over Houston tomorrow, will anyone have really figured out the Texas primary/caucus system?

We'll know much more in the hours to come, when polls begin to close, results start pouring in and the race for the Democratic nomination comes into fuller focus - or not.

Your Swamp correspondents will serve up the play-by-play and analysis all evening, as we live-blog the proceeedings. We'll have reports from the field in Ohio and Texas, special guest commentary and a surprise or two. We'll be more exciting than the CNN crawl and less, er, loud than MSNBC. So stay tuned - we'll kick into high gear around 7 p.m. Until then, feel free to offer your early thoughts and predictions on what we'll see tonight. The comments section is open for business.