The Republicans can't lose. It is so easy to see what is going to happen. Obama will have the most delegates going into the convention. The political bosses will rob him of the nomination. Clinton having played the race card, using pictures that darken Obama's skin color, Farrakhan, his religion, every dirty trick she can think of will alienenate the African American vote. They will stay home or vote for McCain. In stealing the nomination she will cost the democrats the White House. The answer to who will answer the phone at 3:00 am will be... Monica Lewinsky.

Martin has it right.

This isn't going to be a nomination worth winning for Obama. His best bet is to prepare to bow out gracefully and hope for another day.

As bitter as the contest gets, he has to keep his cool and let the process play out.

If Hillary offers him the VP slot, take it and run with it.

Obama winning a rough and tough nomination might bring out all of the stereotypes already in the heads of many voters about blacks.

If the Democrats can't even run a Democrat Party caucus, why should anyone trust them to run the country?

Of course, in the case of the Democrat-run Congress, the public ALREADY doesn't trust them.

Race wars in the democrat party. Love it. Years of bias comes home to plaque them. Neither is fit to be president. Won't matter to their constituencies that they will cripple our energy companies, embolden our enemies, open the borders to more trespassers, and increase handouts to the undeserving. Osama would vote for Osama, Chavez would vote for Clinton. Real Americans will vote for a candidate that believes in honor, duty, country.

Talk is that Clinton won by default, with Republicans crossing over to tilt the vote toward her, knowing that
McCain was the presumptive electee. The caucuses confirm that. When it comes to a straight Dmocratic Party vote, Obama leads overwhelmingly. If you throw in the Republican crossovers, CLinton wins.

It's clear that without the interference of Republican voters trying to throw the votes toward Clinton, that the true Democrats wanted Obama. I hope he can come up with a way to deal with this in the remaining primaries/caucuses.

I still think Obama will win the nomination before the convention. The so called Democratic bosses are going to come to their senses and realize that Obama still has lower negatives than Hillary, still out-polls John(follow them to the gates of hell) McCain, and has more of the popular vote and committed delegates. The sure way for the Democrats to lose this November is to nominate Hillary.

Hillary will do anything, say anything to win - which the uneducated voter laps it up like a puppy on milk. Am I the only one out here that hates the thought of dyansties in American poliics? I'm sorry, but if Hillary get's the nomination, I'm voting for McCain. At least his last name isn't Bush or Clinton. And since it'd be 4 more years of Bush we know what we're getting.

Obama will do what ever to win. He has paid volunteer who call voters, ask how they are going to vote, take them to the caucuses and then check to make sure they voted. This is the democratic way according to the Obama campaign.

History will love this race. After decades of endless support for the democratic party voting as an active and monolithic block, over 85% of African Americans vote dem, they at last get a Senator, they are 25% of of the dem voters they get 1 Senator, he creates a wave of hope and passion unseen since the 60's. In response the party insiders and the media slaps him down and tells him to get to the back of the bus, where he belongs. Look at Clinton's support, elderly white voters with all the bias of the past and uneducated voters, what a great group to lead the country. You can see as early as this morning that they realize what they have done in splitting the party. Now she wants Obama as VP. They have killed the hope of the party and they will lose. Poetic justice.

And maybe Hillary won because voters responded to her ideas? Just a thought. Oh -- I forgot. You'd rather blame Obama's loss on factors OTHER than his credibility. Forget his campaign's wink-niudge pledge to the Canadians on NAFTA, forget how he yet to lay out a play for governing, as opposed to running for office, and certainly forget being open about his real estate deal and fund-raising connections to Tony Rezko. He keeps saying he'll be happy to answer questions, then pointedly does not.

Dear Martin: YOU seem to be casting the most mud, using undocumented facts. Clearly we all hear on PBS, events where Obama supporters are shouting down Clinton supporters trying to make an intelligent point to the crowd, when it's a Clinton support turn to speak!

Alice: how soon you forget the Florida primary, where brother Bush turned a blind eye to road blocks, etc. that prevented many voters from reaching polls in time, et al. !

Irishspacemonk: It has been the Obama rhetoric that has been discovered to have clay feet, the latest was his state record where pro health care & anti-lobbyist promises got him elected, thereafter he "sold out" to lobbyists by watering down the health care plan promised so it was only a tiny bit better than previous & a long shot worse than promised.

Anonymous: It has been reported that Obama has a huge black following - is that a race war, looking at it from the other direction, i.e. anti-White? Either way looking at it is doubtful ... and you have too much faith in publications, esp. newspapers getting graphics "right", ask any advertiser! Although there is no perfect college that perfectly grooms a President and many are selected by the rich that throw money into their ad campaigns, clothing one's self in the flag, duty, honor, etc. is no guaranty. These are terms even McCarthy used!

Talk is that Clinton won by default, with Republicans crossing over to tilt the vote toward her, knowing that
McCain was the presumptive electee. The caucuses confirm that. When it comes to a straight Dmocratic Party vote, Obama leads overwhelmingly. If you throw in the Republican crossovers, CLinton wins.

Excuse me, you should look at the exit polls. True democrats favored HRC....Republicans favored OB....Independents were close to equal. Your arguement doesn't fly.

Enough with the haters! Democrats are energized and we will support whoever gets the nomination!

If anybody here actually checked the numbers, Republicans and independents in the Texas primary voted for Obama over Clinton something like 55% - 45%. That being 1/3 of the electorate shows that Hillary really did win this primary. It won't matter, since Texas will go to McCain anyway, but let's not throw out information that is wrong, based on what we thought the crossover voters would do yesterday. It simply isn't the case.

This article accurately describes pretty much what went on in Fort Worth as well. It was so difficult to maintain order with such a large group of people, and the Democratic party let us down BIG TIME by not giving us enough sign in sheets, not giving us the election packet that we have a right to have, not giving us access to the voter registration rolls to verify eligibility for people to sign in to the caucus.

Amidst the chaos, some of us just stepped up and tried our best to ensure the process worked in our precinct as it was supposed to. We had 384 people sign in, and more than that were either turned away by the election official (who later walked out herself) or just got fed up and left. Last election they had 5 show up.

Yet all that hard work by volunteers (who said we got paid? we didn't get paid!) and now someone will sue to ensure none of our voices were heard. Just so sad all around.

I also believe it is fairly obvious what happened in Texas. The Republican party encouraged its voters to vote for Hillary Clinton. "Conservative" radio has been promoting this strategy for some time. The over whelming majority of uneducated, white voters ( conservative radio`s bread and butter) turned Texas into a win .
The Republicans do not want to face Barack Obama in a general election. I remain optimistic that the super delegate positioning will continue to favor Barack Obama. The Clinton machine has taken many states by small margins, he has won by large margins.He has won in all geographic areas of the country, she has more wins in concentrated areas where the demographic favors a campaign of innuendo, half truth and rumor. Barack Obama has stayed positive and on issue, she has gone negative and will try to win at all costs. He still has a substantial lead in delegates and now the wisdom of the super delegates will
select the man of the people.

Nice talking points Julie.

Exactly how often do Canadian officials make their "memos" public? The Canadians agree with Obama. I guess Senator Clinton wants to prove her international credentials by ignoring what other governments have to say.

Exactly when did she know what her husband had done with Monica, and how much money did she allow us to waste on that investigation? McCain will ask. Obama won't. Be prepared to hear about Travelgate and all the other useless slime from the 90, but one thing can't be disputed. She didn't serve the American people in that one incident in order to save herself for this presidential run

Rezco? How about HIllary's business dealings?? Again, Obama is NOT talking about them. When did she hire Rove??

It would be nice to SEE the Texas caucus results.

I think the republicans are having a huge laugh. Look at those democrats tearing one another apart. I don't think that Obama has a shady past, nor do I think that Hillary has dirt on her hands. What I do think is, these two candidates are worthy individuals with very big differences in style and background. Hillary will share the presidency with her egotistical philandering husband, make no mistake. She is willing to do "almost" anything to win it's true, some people like that some don't. Obama will work to bring people together that have never agreed on anything. He will speak to our enemies as well as our friends. The policies are very close so in all honesty folks we are not addressing policy, were addressing new communication and energy versus old school status quo politics. I for one want Obama, I want and feel bettering knowing that someone is in the white house that is reaching out across racial boundaries and political lines, more than anything this country needs to stand together and present a united front. Bush has destroyed that in our country, and I do not think Hillary’s polarizing personality can pull it together. We need Obama – wake up America.

so hillary won 3 states.
3 states wich were predicted to go to her by 10-20 percentpoints.
3 states wich everybody called out for being the right demographics clinton could easily win.
yes, she did win. but by very close margins.
is it really that much of a surprise she stil won these contests?

there was a good reason clinton said these states will get her the comeback? its because if she was going to win anything, it was these.

on the other hand, any contest in wich clinton starts behind, or has a smaller then double-digit lead(any of the 11 states before today) went to obama with landslide victories(58 to 41% or better wins).

clinton has been lucky that these 3 states wich favor her are on one day, because if they had been spread out between the 11 states obama won, we'd be talking about "obama winning 4 states for each state clinton wins"

clinton should do the smart move, and drop out right now.

yours,
Tim(resident in the netherlands

The posters who assume that Obama has been a victim of unfair treatment have also ignored that the same has been happening to Hillary. I believe the result of this last election gives voters time to get to know the two candidates for the Democratic nomination. Not all of us are rushing the process. America has more states to vote, and they are just as important as the ones that have already had the opportunity to do so. This country belongs to all of us. We should be proud that we not only have a black candidate, but also a strong woman candidate. This is what dreams are made of.

After Wyoming Saturday and Mississippi Tuesday the delegate math will be about the same , with Obama still ahead by roughly 160 pledged delegates . Lets say Hillary wins 55% of the delegates on avg. in Pennsylvania, Indiana,Kentucky, West Va., and Puerto Rico . We'll give Obama slim 51% wins in Guam, N. Carolina ,Oregon,Montana, and S.Dakota . In the unlikely event these percentages played out , Obama would still lead by about 130 pledged delegates. Now lets say that there are do overs in Michigan and Florida . Lets give Hillary 55% of that vote . Now we go to the convention and Obama still has a 94 pledged delegate lead . Now it will be up to the super delegates to reverse the will of the people , something they have indicated they will not do . These are the facts. Hillary can only continue to negatively attack the eventual nominee thereby handing the election to Mccain. A real estate deal is not going to derail Obama . Racial attacks ( turban pictures,darkening his photo, parsing your answer that he is not a Muslim on 60 minutes)etc. will not derail Obama . This nomination is not the personal property of the Clinton's . Hillary has been beaten fair and square . Its over . These are the facts and they are irrefutable.

How many of you would support a move whereby only the Popular Vote electrs ANYBODY?, i.e. ending Super Delegates, Caucuses, etc.? Better voting machines, registration via driver's licenses/other, etc. might be other solutions to counter behind-the-scenes political control?

The Republicans have already lost by anointing McCain. He's a whitewashed sepulchre. The entire nation has missed their opportunity by not choosing the patriot Alan Keyes as their next president. Say goodbye to America; she's lost.

In our district in Dallas, Republicans crossed over to vote for Hillary in the primary. They came back at night to cast their vote for Hillary in the caucus and then left. After all our votes were cast, it was first determined that Hillary had won one more delegate than Obama. When I was chosen as one of the delegates, I was asked to give my e-mail on the voting sheet. I could not find my name on any of the sheets that had been used to come up with the total count. After some looking around on the desk, an additional four sheets of votes were found. After a recount Obama won one extra delegate to Hillary. It was a very confusing process, and it scares me if other sheets may pop up later.

I love the hypocrisy. When Hillary was in the lead, Obama's supporters LOVED the open primary that allowed Obama to "unite" independents and GOP-supporters. Now that the open primary doesn't appear to be helping Obama, his supporters are looking to the caucus as the "real" way to find out what Democrats want. REALLY? Are you serious? The caucus is an arcane and byzantine way to select our leaders. It disenfranchises the old, the sick, and the shift-workers. Not to mention the poor who can't get child-care or who can't get a ride to the polling place. Not everyone can be at one location at 7 pm (ro 9 pm) on a weeknight.

I think that the party needs to really evaluate how it runs its primaries. This makes the party look disorganized AND dysfunctional.

Farrakhan, his religion,
Posted by: martin | March 5, 2008 8:34 AM

Yea right Martin, Farrakhans' a terrific guy
don't pay no mind to years of racist, and anti-Semitic comments. Getting Obama to denounce the racist was like pulling teeth. I don't think too many people would agree with you on that guy.....but i see Bud McFarlin does.

Hillary just had to turn this into a dirty fight...now Obama has no choice but to go negative on Hillary because it obviously worked for her in Ohio BIG TIME. He took the high road on most of the battles now it's payback time. The big problem is in the end the Democratic Party will be split down the middle and Mccain will win...GJ HILLARY! **roll eyes**

Mr. Obama must advocate to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates!!! The DNC stance against these states and the Obama campaign support of this stance, is eerily reminiscent of the stolen Florida election of 2000. Any bias in party decision-making must be in favor of the VOTERS and not some arbitrary rule-making by DNC officials months ago to slap the wrists of the Florida and Michigan parties. Frankly, both Democratic candidates and the DNC should support voters rights in Florida and Michigan. I find it quite disconcerting that Mr. Obama will not stand-up for the disenfranchised voters of two very large, traditionally Democratic states, while simultaneously having a link on his website to the National Voter Protection Center.

If Obama wins the pledged delegate count and the superdelegates rob him at the convention, the Democratic party will lose its black constituency forever. The Dems aren't stupid enough to alienate their most loyal base of supporters.

Interesting story about Obama's early years and climatic rise in Chicago. All Democrats should enjoy this read.

http://www.houstonpress.com/2008-02-28/news/barack-obama-screamed-at-me/full

The caucuses in Texas were unsupervised circuses.

Throw out the caucus votes.

Clinton is wrong for america
Sen Obama is a true progressive to fight the rightwing medias assalt on the people

Many of you have no idea what you are talking about. I was there and took part in this process, both as an election judge and precinct captain. The caucus might seem archaic, but is a great way for people to be involved in the process we like to call "democracy", and it involves more than merely selecting delegates.

Last night could have gone smoother, but with primary turnout at unprecedented levels, by and large, it went about as good as one could expect. Many classes were offered by the Democratic Party about how to run these precinct conventions and many people took them, but many more showed up at both party's urging without know what to expect and often being told that it was a chance for them to "vote twice".

Long lines at the polls and late conventions can be blamed on poor voter turnout by Texas Democrats in previous years. How many voting machines and where you vote, is decided by participation in prior elections and months in advance.

Democracy isn't always pretty and organized, but the more people that are involved on a grass roots level, the less it is left up to the the privileged few to make choices that effect all of us.

The question is, do you want to participate in Democracy or not? many times that means doing more than just casting a vote.

A question for jp.michigan and anyone else who believes Obama has "paid people to make calls" (not that there's anything unethical or weird about that sort of thing): Where do you get your information? Certainly not from inside the Obama campaign, where I can tell you first hand, it is volunteers like me making all those calls. Deal with the fact that the guy is able to generate loyalty and inspire people to do a little work -- unlike some people I can think of. Work. Volunteers. Hard. Long. Get it done. Simple. Worth it to us. Get it? Thank you. Now back to the phone tree for me. This thing is far from over, the Republic of Texas notwithstanding (and that is Texas, both US state and to some Texans, a separate Republic).

Note to "jp. michigan": I am an Obama volunteer who's made those phone calls to voters on several occasions -- using my own cell phone, as do the other volunteers. We are not paid; there IS no such thing as a paid volunteer. It's a contradiction in terms. Get your facts straight -- and learn how to punctuate -- before you post further blather.

My precinct convention in Austin had five times more people in attendance than were expected, so the process was slow. The Clinton supporters were represented at every stage of the process. The apparent chaos during primary balloting and during the precinct convention were the result of much greater numbers than leaders expected. No chicanery, only muddle.

I find it disconcerting that people want to change the rules after the game has started. I am not surprised the Clinton team would like a re-do. When you are behind and blinded by the desire to win you will attempt justify any tactic.

I attended one of the Texas caucuses. It was a mess. This process is unfair because only die-hards can afford to spend three to five hours during the work week to sit around and wait for the process to work. No consideration was given to the elderly who attended--the seating consisted of elementary school plastic chairs. I saw many elderly Clinton supports leave as a result of the delayed and chaotic process. THIS IS NOT DEMOCRACY. Let's go back to talking about the popular vote!

Don B.:

At least Obama rejected Farrakhan.

When will McCain reject the anti-Catholic, anti-Semitic Hagee?

You know, the guy he went after to get his support.

I do not believe Obama is a racist; but I believe many of the people supporting him are. I do think he's a snake oil salesman.

If Hillary can't win, because the Supers will follow the popular vote, then I'll be staying home on election day. I will never vote for Obama. Sorry.

So,anonymous comments will not be posted!? What about your anonymous posting of March 5, 2008 9:03 AM? The Swamp finally has meaning.

The Democratic party is in chaos. The nominee will be so weak from all the in-fighting and disorganization, that you might as well give the nomination to McCain now-- as long as he selects a conservative VP who will bring out the Republican party base to vote.

This was one only cause Republicans voted for Hillary....They figure its easier for McCain to bat Hillary than Obama..
Its really a shame that the two will end up hurting eithr tht wins and I hope it doesn't cost who wins the White House..Sad thing is that John McCain gets to sti back and watch it all unfold and take notes on what hurts them..

The total delegate gain from all of yesterday's primaries was 10 for Clinton. Tic toc tic toc ... Actually I'm glad that she won something so that all the old ladies and the high school graduates got a bone, so they won't feel too bad voting for Obama in the fall.

To Davide: Are you aware that the Republican Senate in Florida voted to change the primary date in that state?

No one said it would be easy. We need to keep fighting they can only win if they talk us into lossing. The clintons can not win on the merits.

Carl Rove says Obama will be a though opponent to them than Clinton? If you beleive him, then you an IDIOT.

Bud McFarlin,
Grow up! There's no way the Democratic party will be allowed to rob Obama of his well deserved victory in the end.There will be hell to pay for decades to come if they even try that nonsense.

Getting Obama to denounce the racist was like pulling teeth.
Posted by: Don B. | March 5, 2008 11:27 AM

and getting McBush to denounce his Catholic and Jewish hating endorser was like non-existant.

I am a Texas voter and teacher. I am a trained Caucus-goer, but people not from here don't get it at all. We have called the CNN referred to "caucuses" precinct conventions for years because the candidates are usually decided before Texas has a primary. The only people who "caucused" were the party devotees who wished to attend the county Dem. convention as delegates. It has been easy to get elected to that, as so many no shows occurred. Last night at my precinct there were over 110 people waiting to caucus in one little precinct in a very small town. The O'Bama people arrived early and took over but were unskilled. Hillary voters outnumbered them 5 to 1 but when after hours, some families left, those in charge didn't recount which affects the ratio of delegates to each group. If some old Democrats hadn't stepped up at the end, there would have been more chaos. Also, there were not enough supplies. My daughter's friend was told at the polls in a neighboring precinct by O'Bama people that they'd already voted and didn't have to caucus. So, you got the chaos right.

Clinton wants to "win" - at all costs.

If this goes to Denver, it's going to make Chicago, circa 1968 look like Mr. Roger's Neighborhood.

I don't believe Clinton understands what she is actually doing - splitting the Democratic party apart.

And, if she IS aware of it, and doesn't seem to care - well -

It's civil war.

From Goober
"I do not believe Obama is a racist; but I believe many of the people supporting him are. I do think he's a snake oil salesman.

If Hillary can't win, because the Supers will follow the popular vote, then I'll be staying home on election day. I will never vote for Obama. Sorry.
"

All I can say is "WOW". Look at the exit polls. Hillary ALWAYS wins the old white vote. Obama's supporters racist.. All the YOUNG white people are voting for obama. You are calling the people who are NOT racist racists. Skin color means very little to the younger generations.

It amazes me that you people can jump up and down with all this Obama crap. All of those states that he has won are RED states and they will go for McCain in November. All the true BLUE states have gone to Clinton. It makes sense that you would want the canidate that will hold their own and pick up more. For information on the states that Obama has won, the state of Georgia has not voted DEM since 1976 and South Carolina never goes for a DEM. Obama can get the nomination for all its worth and then lose the national election because these neophites believe that he really has momentum with these RED states. GO FIGURE.

Jim, that's all speculation, but don't think for a minute that the Clintons don't have some aces up their sleeves in the form of superdelegates. They have more party connections. They have more clout to peddle, pure and simple.

Even if Obama has a 94-delegate lead that's no guarantee he'll get the nomination ESPECIALLY if Michigan and Florida are seated.

When it's less than a hundred delegates anything can happen. And right now anything is installing solar panels on his house in Tennessee, eating lots of meatloaf, and showing up every once in awhile to accept awards for his powerpoint presentation from hard left entertainment groups. One of those awards he won was also won by 9/11 truther Marion Cotillard. You know who I'm talkin' about.

"I love the hypocrisy. When Hillary was in the lead, Obama's supporters LOVED the open primary that allowed Obama to "unite" independents and GOP-supporters. Now that the open primary doesn't appear to be helping Obama, his supporters are looking to the caucus as the real way to find out what Democrats want. "
Posted by: Kelly | March 5, 2008 11:25 AM "

Kelly--You missed the whole point. Indeps and Repubs voting for Obama did it out of sincere support for him. Indeps and Repubs for Clinton told exit pollers they did it to keep Clinton in so McCain would win. This is not my opinion, it was part of the news sthis morning. I sure hope someone is checking out the fact that in several Ohio counties, they went through more Democratic ballots than 2x the registered Democratic voters. Example, one county had 14,500 registered Democrats. They went through 33,000 ballots yesterday. Ohio has documented voter fraud from the previous (2004) election (see book by R. Fitrakis and S. Rosenfeld, for example).

Bill r:

The magic word is "Hagee". Mention it, and all the GOP posters forget how to type.

It is very clear that the media favors Obama. I am finding this show very entertaining. The bottom line is that Hillary's supporters will most likely vote for McCain. The reason is both experience and that he is white. So if Hillary looses, McCain has a very good chance to take the presidency. Obama's supporters, on the other hand, will not vote for McCain and will vote for Hillary. So if you Democrats want to get into the office, you better get behind Hillary, or the Republicans will get the white house.

kristianjl,
I beg to differ! I know many people & actually heard people on TV as well who will vote for McCain if Obama gets the nomination!

Democrats for Hillary or McCain!

I attended and helped run a caucus last night. Plastic chairs would have been a luxury! We had 8 conventions at our polling place and all were held outside in the PARKING LOT of an old municipal building because the building was not large enough to accomodate even one of the conventions, let alone 8.

We hudled together to stay warm as we fiqured out the process. We grabed an old wooden bench to use a as table and voters held up cell phones to provide light to those signing in. It was amazing - not perfect - what is? But so exciting to see our neighbors coming together to be heard! People got involved, got off the couch and wanted to make a difference. What difference are YOU trying to make today?

The Democratic national and state parties have really tied the hands of the candidates in this 2008 election season. As the party of the people, can anyone tell me why we don't eliminate Caucases and simply use direct voting to determine delegate counts? Caucasing opens the door for the kind of corruption Republicans are known for in the past two elections. Furthermore, let's eliminate proportional system and return to winner take all. It is efficient and leads to having an earlier decision on the candidates. It is absurd when Obama wins 12 in a row that he does not earn a windfall of delegates. Likewise, when Clinton wins 3 of 4 states, including 2 large major states, she should earn more than a 7 net delegate gain! We need a simpler election system.

@ Tim - Yes, skin color means little to nothing to young voters like me.

I didn't read the long list of comments above, but thought I should throw my observations into the pile since I was actually there. My precinct's caucus (in San Antonio) was at least as disorganized as the one described in this article. What I would add to the discussion is that most of the people present had never BEEN to a caucus before (myself included). So when thousands of people turn out to conduct what is essentially a self-organized caucus for the first time, no one should be surprised by chaos like this. I was shocked at first, but by the time it was all over I had a much better understanding of what happened, why it happened, what happens next, and felt that the process was fair, albeit disorganized.

Those complaining about the process should learn more about how the caucus works so that they can help keep the next one organized and effective. Better yet, volunteer as election judges for the general election in November.

Elections are like Christmas (or any other religious/cultural holiday event for political correctness' sake). They don't just happen. We all have to pitch in as citizens, voters, and volunteers to help organize and make them happen.

Boy, you people (Republicans) will tell yourselves anything to avoid facing the truth! I shouldn't be shocked, but I can't help myself ...

Republicans helped Hillary? excuse me, last time I checked CNN exit polls on TX, republicans and independents voted Obama more than hillary.
I appreciate Obama's supporters' efforts on this topci though.

Although the numbers are still not in from the Texas caucuses, if we assume the they split evenly (Obama was actually ahead by 52/48 when 36 percent were in), Clinton will have taken 195 delegates yesterday races to Obama's 175, not far off my own s prediction. Now, assume that:
(1) Obama takes 55 percent of the delegates in the next two primaries, (2) Clinton takes 55 percent of the Pennsylvania primary, (3) the two of them split evenly the next seven (where Obama is actually favored), (4) Clinton takes Puerto Rico by 55 percent, and (5) the 26 delegates Edward got all go to Obama. If you assume these things, that will bring Clinton's delegate total voted delegates to 1544 by the end of the primaries and Obama's to 1681. Add in the currently-pledged supers they each have and the final totals going into the convention will be 1785 for Clinton and 1880 for Obama, yielding deficits to reach the needed 2025 of 240 and 145, respectively.

You do the math. If there are 356 undeclared delegates, Clinton would have to take 62 percent of them for her to win the nomination, and that is not going to happen, folks, for two reasons. First, Clinton running against McCain will be unelectable. No sense belaboring this point because that is a fact. The super delegates will know that, certainly by August 25th. Second, as the Denver convention begins, the undeclared super delegates will conclude that Obama came over much more presidential during his entire campaign compared to the often-schizophrenic Hillary, and then declare for him. Of course, if this campaign continues any longer, Clinton's desperate, snarly tactics will only become clearer to the super delegates while Obama's gentlemanly tactics also become clearer , making the delegates' decisions easier.

The end result of all this will be at the end of the first ballot, Obama will be the Democratic nominee. Of course, his chances of beating McCain at this point will have diminished significantly because of Hillary's snarly tactics, and that is something the super delegates are going to have to contemplate now. My prediction: the perceptive among the remaining undeclared supers begin coming out of the woodwork starting tonight, with more declaring for Obama than Hillary.

Well at least the Democrats are consistent. They fight each other better than they fight anyone else. Hillary was suppose to be crowned by now running against other party members and a rookie upstart with no real experience.

Hillary's latest strategy is brilliant. Nominate me or I'll leave Obama a bloody mess for McCain to finish off. Clearly, it's her way and to heck with the Party.

Obama either gets in the gutter too or have Hillary continue to go negative for months. As everyone sees, the Democrats are screwed regardless.

Also, how many men that voted for Hillary in the primary will immediately switch over the McCain?

Way to go Dem's you've shot yourselves in the foot one more time.

Why should we assume they split evenly? Wasn't Obama supposed to win the Texas primary, after all? Wait until all the votes are counted. Period. Assume nothing.

From Tim:

"Look at the exit polls. Hillary ALWAYS wins the old white vote. Obama's supporters racist.. All the YOUNG white people are voting for obama. You are calling the people who are NOT racist racists. Skin color means very little to the younger generations."

Tim, you are wrong. No one said ALL Obama's supporters are racist. But some of Obama's supporters are really racist. White younger generations are not racist, they vote Obama not because of his color. But can you say most black are not? 90% black support Obama.

White old vote Clinton because her experience and because she is believable, not because of her color.

Bobin...I love how Don B. and others come on here and talk about Obama on an endorsement he never sought, then rejected and denounced it, yet McBush can actively seek a hater and not only that...he parades him out on stage. They have guts claiming any high road.

Hilary...Obama...the only thing I know for sure is that this country will not survive another term under the mismanagement of the fascist party.

Does anyone voting for Hillary really know who she is? I've seen her change her personality completely and her election tactics many times. She stated on TV's GMA, "Well,I don't know how to act...if I cry then I'm too soft.. if I remain firm then I have another problem." How about this one Hillary... why don't you , for once, try being yourself and not what you "think" the public wants to see. You are NOT seen as authentic.

I have two words for all of you Obama supporters: Tony Rezko. Don't know what I'm talking about? Then don't claim to know Obama. The Sun is biased against Clinton because its evil parent comapany, The Chicago Tribune, is biased towards Obama. Here in Baltimore we never hear the bad things Obama has done and said. He is a blatent racist as is his wife. Check out back issues of the Chicago Sun-Times online for a better view of this nobody from nowhere.

Jeff , I agree that evidently the Clintons' will take down the party with them . At this point I wouldn't be surprised by anything. However I think Obama will also show some ability to go negative at this point . He is being forced to . In fact this afternoon he has questioned her so called "experience" as first lady. Also that tax return thing is looming . He'll have to be careful though , remembering that if one gets into a mud fight with a pig , the pig enjoys it.

You're right, cardinal, we can't afford for the democrats to get the White House.

I was at the caucus last night in North Houston, it was the most unorganized archaic event I have witnessed in politics. Like the article states it started two hours after it was supposed to, we sttod outside standing in 55 degree temperatures. The eldery left after about an hour. The precints were split up and brought to different areas outside. They tried to get the crowd to line up, some were chanting "let me vote." They ran out of sheets, had no pens and told us to go home if we don't want to be a delegate. Texas needs to have a primary only!! At least 60% of the original crowd didn't stick around to vote by 10pm.

And who wants to vote the democtrats?
Sorry I did!
If they do not know to run their own elections, how do they want to run the country?!!

These candidates, these primaries are historic. Everyone: BE PROUD!

As I read the vote totals of each Texas county, Obama won Texas except for the counties along the Rio Grande, save one. Almost a 200,000 vote lead for Clinton, Obama lost Texas by about 100,000 votes. You shoot yourself in the foot when you complain about NAFTA, and wish to build a Berlin wall on the border. Those who live on the border don't want a wall.

It is very clear that the media favors Obama. I am finding this show very entertaining. The bottom line is that Hillary's supporters will most likely vote for McCain. The reason is both experience and that he is white. So if Hillary looses, McCain has a very good chance to take the presidency. Obama's supporters, on the other hand, will not vote for McCain and will vote for Hillary. So if you Democrats want to get into the office, you better get behind Hillary, or the Republicans will get the white house.

Posted by: Ziba1 | March 5, 2008 3:01 PM
++++++++++++++++++++++++
You must not be following the news. Many Blacks are saying if this nomination is stolen from Obama they will not vote or they will vote Republican or Independent.

Limbaughs plan may backfire. If Hillary wins the nomination, many Republican women will vote her just to see a woman president. One possible result would be 8 years of
Hillary Clinton followed * years of Barack Obama.

Just to reply to those who think that Obama supporters are racist because he has the majority of the black vote: remember, HILLARY HAD THE MAJORITY BLACK VOTE AT THE START. Obama has EARNED the majority that she once had! Now with that being said, I agree with those who have stated that McCain will definitely have the advantage being that the Dems will start to rip each other apart. Yay ;) But just out of serious curiosity, is the Mccain's recent endorsement by Bush a good thing or a bad thing? Someone help me figure this one out? And who really is our best opponent, Hillary or Obama? I think we have a better chance at beating Hillary, so bring it on!

Ok, let me start by saying that I am a 32 year old female (South) Austinite that attended my neighborhood caucus last night and I am an Obama supporter. My neighborhood is a mix of all races. There are quaint old houses sitting next to brand new modern metal and glass dwellings and LOTS of apartment complexes. There are lower and middle income families, as well as a lot of non-traditional students and middle-aged, hard working singles.

I found our precinct to be for the most part, an organized process. The precincts captains were able to clearly explain the, in my opinion, unnecessarily complex process. While I did not have time to stay for the entire process of choosing delegates for the next caucus, I understood that I did have the option to (as did the people around me). By the time i got through the line, our nominees (as well as an equal number of alternates in case these individuals decided they did not want to participate) were chosen. I had nice conversations with the neighbors i already knew from my complex (mostly Hillary supporters) and everyone was cordial, despite our different choices.

Having said all that, here's my take on the difference in the primary and caucus numbers...

With regard to the primary, I've been hearing since early yesterday about the "crossover Republicans" and I'm not at all surprised. I grew up in East Texas/Arkansas and that's pretty typical behavior of a certain type of serious conservative in Texas. Someone above made a point about Hillary getting the "old white vote" -- and yes, down here, she typically does. I mean, have you looked at the CNN county map??? It is amazingly close to the last presidential election -- she took all of the Republican (and typically overall more conservative) counties. It certainly could have slightly swung the vote (she did only win by 99,629 out of 2,812,289), but she also does really have a LOCK on the majority of the Latino vote here. She took around 70% of the vote along the border. We all knew it was going to be close.

Now, with regard to the caucus from an Austin perspective, Obama supporters in this city are fiercely passionate (yet pleasantly calm) and at the only rally I was able attend (in San Marcos, TX at least a week before the primary), his volunteers were mostly Texas State Campus Democrats and were already walking the line, trying to educate the public on how the caucus works and explaining why it was important to attend. Because of this widespread effort to educate his supporters so early, i believe it helped his turnout. We REALLY want to see Barack Obama as President of the United States and we showed up! It takes action and what I'm seeing is the 18-35 crowd bringing a "team effort" action like in no other election in my lifetime. We choose to see our country's future through Barack Obama's eyes and are inspired by his ideas and ability to motivate.

While Hillary took the primary, Obama seems to be winning the caucus. In the two precincts that showed up at our location (judging just by the visual split of the room), there was an approximately 70% Obama to 30% Clinton turnout. From what I've heard from friends, their turnouts were about the same - super heavy on the Obama side.

This seems to be confirmed by the numbers released so far. Because one-third of our delegates come from the caucus, If Obama does win the most votes, he could actually easily end up with more delegates in Texas than Clinton, as she only four separate the candidates now, according to CNN.com.

It saddens me if others had a negative experience, but personally i was amazed and proud of our turnout. Whenever there was even slight confusion, we worked together to straighten it all out. Overall, it's still basically a split down the middle...we shall see what numbers the future primaries hold.

I've written more than enough now.

g'night...

I think if Obama or Hillary wins, the OTHER will endorse the Winner. People say I wont vote for __________ if _________ wins. However, that is just for the emotionally involved idiots. most democrats, in texas polls said they would vote for either/or democratic nominee in the national election. Also, they might run as President/VP in order to unite all the hillary and barack supporters. Also, stop saying Hillary fans are uneducated old white people. I am a young ASian, and most of my ethnic friends prefer Hillary. Also my aunt has a phD. So stop your generalizations.

I also find it funny how Obama supporters think anything positive from hillary is a political calculation. It is also laughable to believe barack is not playing dirty politics or have any skeletons. Hillary and Obama are BOTH politicians trying to gain votes. The fact that one believes blindly that barack is always "innocent" throws away the "we're educated barack supporters" response.

How about readin on obama's MONEY CARTEL

http://www.zcommunications.org/znet/viewArticle/16601

I dont know where some of you are getting that Republicans crossed voted in droves for Hillary; the opposite is quite true though. Exit polls showed Obama receiving 56-44% of the GOP vote over Hillary. If anything, that would have made Hillary's victory all the more decisive. So the fact that Obama might walk away with more Texas delegates makes it all the more contradictory.

As far someone saying Obama won all of Texas except the Rio Grande Valley; I encourage you to go to CNN.com and look at the primary Texas map. Pretty much ALL of Texas except for the Austin, Houston, and Dallas area counties went Clinton.