Bush: 'Renewed prospect of success'

by Mark Silva

President Bush, declaring that his surge of U.S. military forces in Iraq has “renewed and revived the prospect of success,’’ announced today that the drawdown of additional forces will pause for an assessment in July, and that the deployments of individual soldiers will be cut from 15 to 12 months in August.

“Today, we have the initiative,’’ said Bush, delivering a decidedly upbeat assessment of the security and political situation in Iraq in a statement at the White House. “We have renewed and revived the prospect for success.’’

The president’s assessment of the success of the surge in forces that he ordered last year stands in stark contrast to that of Democratic congressional leaders and many independent military analysts, who contend that the nascent Iraqi government has not taken full advantage of the “breathing room’’ for political reconciliation which added U.S. forces were supposed to provide.

The president’s assessment could not contrast more with that of critics, particularly the Democrats seeking the 2008 presidential nomination, who contend that after five years of war in Iraq the United States faces an intractable situation which demands further – and eventually full – withdrawal of U.S. forces.

Bush today called the “turnaround’’ that has occurred in Iraq during the past year “a brilliant achievement in American history.’’

The president also reiterated a warning to Iran, which the U.S. accuses of supporting insurgent forces inside Iraq: “If Iran makes the wrong choice, America will act to protect our interests, our troops and our Iraqi partners.’’

And Bush attempted to frame the Iranian government – which in 2002 he had termed part of an “axis of evil’’ with the Iraq of the since-deposed Saddam Hussein and North Korea – as one of the major threats facing the United States in the 21st Century.

Iraq, Bush said today, has become “the convergence point of two of the greatest threats'' that the U.S. faces in the century ahead: Al Qaeda and Iran. Success for the U.S. there, he said, will enhance prospects for peace in the Middle East. Defeat, he maintains, will embolden Al Qaeda and allied enemies to take their fight to the United States.

Acknowledging the high costs of the war – exceeding $600 billion – the president attempted to place it in the context of earlier battles, citing a U.S. defense budget that stood much higher, as a percentage of the overall economy, during the Cold War.

“Today, we face an enemy that is not only expansionist in its aims, but has attacked our homeland and intends to do so again,’’ Bush said. The cost of this war “pales,’’ he said, when “compared with another terrorist attack on our people.’’

By July, the president said – standing on a stage of klieg-lighted marble pillars in the grand Cross Hall of the White house with an invited audience of several dozen – the U.S. will have 25 percent fewer troops in Iraq than it had last year. This represents a drawdown of the roughly 21,500 combat forces plus thousands of additional supporting troops – both soldiers and Marines – that the president ordered last year, leaving the U.S. with about 130,000 troops in July.

Bush said he had accepted the recommendation of Gen. David Petraeus that military authorities pause for 45 days after those drawdowns are finished, to assess the security situation. Bush also has accepted the recommendation of cutting individual troop deployments in the war to 12 months – with at least 12 months of of stateside assignment for those returning to the theater. Last April, deployments had been increased to 15 months.

“I’ve told him he’ll have all the time he needs,’’ Bush said of Petraeus, and he rejected the term, pause. “None of the operations will be on hold.’’

Bush said the change will provide needed relief, -- "the stress on our forces is real,'' he acknowledged -- and Petraeus echoed that today.

“I was asked, ‘What is your view on a 12-month tour,’’ Petraeus said at an appearance in Washington today. “And when I was asked, I said I thought that would be wonderful. A 15-month tour is a very long time. The 12-month tour is tough enough on our soldiers and families. And a 15-month tour obviously is a good bit tougher.’’

Bush cited declining sectarian violence, declining U.S. casualties and increasing Iraq enlistment in national security and police forces as well as increasing cooperation of Iraqi citizens in the rejection of Al Qaeda as signs of the surge’s success.

“The immediate goal of the surge was to bring down the sectarian violence,’’ the president said. And it has “cleared the way for political and economic’’ gains.

“Serious and complex challenges remain in Iraq,’’ Bush admitted during an 18-minute address followed by no opportunity for questions from reporters assembled behind a White House audience that included Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates.

“Yet with the surge, a major strategic shift has occurred,’’ Bush said. “Today, we have put Al Qaeda on the defensive in Iraq and are now working to deliver a crippling blow.

“It is clear we are on the right track,'' the president said. "In the period ahead, we will stay on the offensive against the enemy.’’