by Janet Hook
With three crucial Democratic primaries looming, Hillary Rodham Clinton may not be headed toward the blockbuster victories she needs to jump-start her presidential bid -- even in Pennsylvania, the state that was supposed to be her ace in the hole, a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll has found.
The survey found the New York senator leading Barack Obama by just 5 percentage points in Pennsylvania, which votes next Tuesday. Such a margin would not give her much of a boost in the battle for the party's nomination.
What is more, the poll found Clinton trails Obama by 5 points in Indiana, another Rust Belt state that should play to her strengths among blue-collar voters.
In North Carolina, an Obama stronghold, he is running 13 points ahead.
The race remains volatile, however, because many likely voters in the Democratic primaries are still undecided -- 12 percent in Pennsylvania, 19 percent in Indiana and 17percent in North Carolina.
"I could be one who goes into the voting box and makes up my mind at the polls," Gwen Hodavance, a receptionist in Paoli, Pa., said in an interview after participating in the poll. "Obama is the best candidate, the best articulator of the mood for change, but I don't know how he would be for president."
The results underscore the rough road ahead for Clinton in the balloting in Pennsylvania and, on May 6, in Indiana and North Carolina.
See the rest of the story in the Los Angeles Times:
With the Illinois senator leading Clinton in the number of convention delegates selected, states won and popular votes cast, she is hoping that a decisive win in Pennsylvania and a victory in Indiana will slow Obama's momentum and bolster her plea for support from the party's superdelegates -- the elected officials, party leaders and activists who likely will decide the nomination.
The poll, conducted under the supervision of Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus, interviewed 623 voters in Pennsylvania, 687 in Indiana and 691 in North Carolina who expected to cast Democratic ballots. The margin of sampling error for the findings in each state is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The telephone interviews took place Thursday through Monday, meaning the bulk were conducted just as controversy broke out over an Obama remark widely criticized as demeaning rural voters in Pennsylvania. He suggested that for some residents of small towns, their commitment to gun rights, religious faith and hostility toward foreign trade had its roots in their "bitterness" about economic hardships.
No poll question was asked specifically about the comment.
However, voters were asked about another controversy that has dogged the candidate in recent weeks: racially incendiary comments made by the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., the now-retired pastor of Obama's church in Chicago. The furor prodded Obama to deliver a major speech on racial relations in America last month.
In Pennsylvania, the flap seems to have marginally helped Obama more than hurt him: 24% said his handling of the issue made them think more highly of him; 15% said it made them think less highly of him; 58% said it made no difference in their views.
Many Democratic voters, however, see Obama's association with Wright as posing a problem for him in the general election -- 46% in Pennsylvania said they expected it to hamper him in a contest with presumptive Republican nominee John McCain; in Indiana, 47% agreed with that, and in North Carolina, 42%.
"I can't help but thinking the church is a big influence on him," said Roberta Rowe, a retiree in West Middlesex, Pa. "I'd like to feel completely comfortable, but that one issue there is really gnawing at me."
In the follow-up interviews, some voters complained that the criticism of his pastor and the allegations that Obama is elitist are sideshows.
"All this back-and-forth is not really staying on the issues that I want to hear from" the White House candidates, said Joseph Robinson, a disabled worker in Lafayette, Ind. He was unmoved by Clinton's charge that Obama, because of his small-town comment, had shown he was out of touch with many Americans.
"She went to Yale, he went to Harvard," said Robinson, referring to the respective law schools from which they graduated.
The poll found Clinton leading Obama 46% to 41% in Pennsylvania -- a far cry from the double-digit margins she held in earlier polls.
In Indiana, where little polling has occurred, previous surveys gave Clinton the edge. The Times/Bloomberg poll put Obama ahead, 40% to 35%.
The leads in Pennsylvania and Indiana are within the poll's margin of sampling error.
In North Carolina, the poll found, Obama leads Clinton 47% to 34% -- a finding in keeping with expectations that he will do well in the state, which has a large African American population. Among blacks there, 71% supported Obama; only 5% backed Clinton and 24% were undecided.
One reason Clinton is struggling in Indiana and North Carolina is that a mainstay of her coalition in earlier contests -- women -- have been defecting. In Indiana, the poll found women split their vote, 35% for each candidate. In North Carolina, they favored Obama, 43% to 36%.
Looking ahead to the general election, many Democrats -- including some Clinton backers -- appear to have concluded that Obama might be in a better position to defeat McCain. In Indiana, for instance, 37% said they thought Obama would fare better against McCain in November, compared to 18% who said Clinton was more likely to beat the Republican.
"I would prefer Clinton, but Obama has less baggage to throw darts at," said Eric Beiz, a realtor in Indianapolis. "She is going to have a tough time."
Clinton also suffers from being seen as less admirable than Obama. Even in Pennsylvania, 47% of Democrats said he had more honesty and integrity, compared to 26% who thought that of Clinton.
"She doesn't tell the truth a lot," said Brannon Crace, a store manager in Frankfurt, Ind. "We've already been through the Clinton era."
In all three states, Clinton was seen as better equipped to handle trade and healthcare policy. But she does not appear to have been as persuasive in making a core argument of her campaign -- that she would be better prepared to lead the nation's military and foreign policy.
Asked who would be better as commander in chief, voters in North Carolina chose Obama, 45% to 28%; in Indiana, Obama was chosen 37% to 29%. Only in Pennsylvania did voters prefer Clinton as commander in chief, 44% to 39%.
There are some ominous signs that the party will not easily unify after a long and contentious primary fight. Fully 30% of Clinton supporters in North Carolina said they would switch to McCain if Obama is the nominee (only 14% of Obama backers would defect if Clinton was the nominee).
"McCain, I like him better than Obama," said Robert D. Hawkins Jr., a disabled veteran from Lenoir, N.C., who already has voted absentee for Clinton. "He's a Vietnam veteran, and I am too. I'm still learning more things about Obama."
Los Angeles Times associate polling director Jill Darling contributed to this report.




Comments
Nah Nah Nah Trib--why still posting the 'funny' polls?
Our gal (and she's Obama's gal took, he just isn't 'dealing' yet, as he said after that lovely visit he had with John and Elizabeth Edwards) is gonna mop the floor with him.
For two reasons--but here's that poll taken before Barry got drunk on that arugula shake and made all those intolerant vegans happy enough to feel that tingle up their pant legs(organic cotton):
http://americanresearchgroup.
com/ )
Reason #1: Hilary's got a ground game now and we know all the tricks the gobamas played earlier in the primary (silly season my butt)
Reason #2 All those chickens are indeed coming home to roost (and it's ruining our chances in the Fall the longer Barry flaps his jaws and Axelrod rolls tape, er pixels):
Today, Bob Johnson, founder of Black Entertainment television today said Geraldine Ferraro is right.
You'll remember her--the candidate formerly known as Ferraro who was VILIFIED in the most MCCARTHISTIC manner by the Obama campaign and the complacement white male (I may be misogynist but don't call ME racist!)corporate media.
Hell she was like George Clooney's AUNT after the blacklisting--only Fox would interview her--and that's because Barry's too snobby to take his hits from the wingnuts--how will that work in the Fall again?)
'What I believe Geraldine Ferraro meant is that if you take a freshman senator from Illinois called 'Jerry Smith' and he says I'm going to run for president, would he start off with 90 percent of the black vote?'' Johnson said. ''And the answer is, probably not.''
Maybe I won't need to spin in my grave quite so fast tonight.
Posted by: Sojourner Truth | April 15, 2008 5:54 PM
Ah Oh!!!
Nice try Clinton, turns out that the voters in Pa and throughout out the rest of America really are angry and bitter.
This video sums up Clinton perfectly:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_mcgO3Iva0
Posted by: JedReport | April 15, 2008 5:55 PM
While I still hate polls, it looks like when you take another conservative 10% from HRC PA poll numbers off, as that is a conservative guess as to how many Republicans are voting for her, then the Democrats are 5% in Obama's favor. Either numbers you use, it is far short of the 30 percent lead that she needes to make a dent in Obama's lead.
Posted by: Xcellentform | April 15, 2008 5:57 PM
This is turning out to be a sad, sad year for our Democratic party. We have two terribly flawed candidates, neither of whom can win. And if either would, it would be an embarrassment for the country. Fortunately, John McCain, a war hero admired by Democrats, Independents and Republicans, is the viable alternative. It would be merciful to cede him the election now.
Posted by: Johannsenn | April 15, 2008 6:02 PM
Hey Hilly, Tick tock, Tick tock...
Posted by: Jim Griffin | April 15, 2008 6:24 PM
Independents and Republicans, is the viable alternative. It would be merciful to cede him the election now.
Posted by: Johannsenn | April 15, 2008 6:02 PM
Spoken like a true Wingnut!
NO ONE wants a third Bush term aka McCain.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cN10_6pyshQ&feature=related
Posted by: John E | April 15, 2008 6:24 PM
First Hillary gets the Colbert Bump.
Then the fall.
Same as Huckabee...
Posted by: strut2k | April 15, 2008 6:30 PM
by the time the dirt from Rezko trial gets out obama wont even be on the map.
Posted by: hire Best Resume | April 15, 2008 6:49 PM
Hillary Clinton, fighting for the angry and bitter people of Pa.....errr....uhhh....wait a minute....hmmm.....nevermind:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jS2UkRSUoPo
Posted by: chauncy | April 15, 2008 7:07 PM
The polls said Clinton would lose New Hampshire also! I respect common sense far more than a few up or down polls. The polls in the days to come, post-'bitter,' should be more representative of the voters' opinions.
Posted by: Spector | April 15, 2008 7:23 PM
I don't believe in any of these polls. More often than not, they are completely wrong. The media has always given Obama a pass.
Posted by: Ellen | April 15, 2008 7:41 PM
Fortunately, John McCain, a war hero admired by Democrats, Independents and Republicans, is the viable alternative.
_________________________
Based on what exactly? His admitted lack of knowledge about economic matters? His constantly confusing Sunni and Shia when discussing the quagmire in Iraq? His marriage to a wealthy heiress that enabled and paid the way for his senate seat, proving he is just as elite as the rest of the candidates? His breaking Federal Elections Laws, laws HE wrote and is now disregarding? His belief we have to keep throwing money at Iraq for another 100 years. His belief we need to bomb Iran (kiling innocent citizens)? His complete lack of understanding the role Petraeus is playing in Iraq (and not Afghanistan)? His lack of demanding Iraq to pay for our occupation now that oil is worth $115 a barrrel? Exaclty what makes mcbush a viable candidate? Nothing I can see.
Posted by: rncbs | April 15, 2008 7:42 PM
Hillary is "slip slidin away..." (with thanks to Paul Simon)
Posted by: oaklynne | April 15, 2008 8:05 PM
The traction isn't gone til the tire blows out. Hopefully HRC will be our next President, heal our Country and BRING OUR SOLDIERS HOME!!!!....Let's wait and see what the bomb is that she drops on Obama before Pa.
Posted by: kaye m. | April 15, 2008 8:32 PM
I tried to warn Senator Clinton's campaign that cannibalism among Democrats would backfire. You don't feed on a fellow party member, for any reason, no matter how desperate it may seem. I hope she will tone it down and I hope her good supporters will take her lead!!!
SUPPORT OUR TROOPS, BRING THEM HOME, ALIVE. NOW.
Posted by: Don Fitzgerald, Chicago | April 15, 2008 8:46 PM
I live in Pennsylvania and am bitter.
Bitter that I still have to see Hillary Clinton lie, distort, pander and set women back at least 20 years every time I turn on the TV.
Now it appears her husband sees signs that don't exist.
Come on, Pennsylvania: Let's end this pathetic Clinton charade right here next week, by handing Annie Oaklie a big fat loss.
Think. Read. Vote.
Obama '08
Posted by: Susan in PA | April 15, 2008 9:05 PM
I don't know what " Johannsenn " is smoking, but he better take it easy. To recommend Incompetent, Too, is the biggest mistake anybody can make, other than, of course, voting for Incompetent-in-Chief, twice!!!! Come, on, vote a Democrat into our White House and see how much better life will be here and around the world!!!
SUPPORT OUR TROOPS, BRING THEM HOME, ALIVE. NOW.
Posted by: Don Fitzgerald, Chicago | April 15, 2008 9:32 PM